The Last October Surprise

Since October has only about another hour in it, at least in the east, this may be the last October Surprise: the last Gallup Poll until the election has the popular vote tied (Bush has been up all month) and the electoral vote victory goes to...Kerry.

This is the poll that 1. weighs towards Republicans, 2. weighs for a relatively low turnout, 3. has other flaws according to people better at math than me. So if this is what Gallup says....the real outlyer poll at the moment seems to be Newsweek's. Everything else points to VK Day Tuesday.