Cheated

 Not long ago Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr lambasted the NBA for not caring about the health of its players, in insisting on scheduling too many games.  For example, the Warriors' just- completed road trip included three games in four days, including a back-to-back.  They then flew 6 hours across country to play a home game the next night.  They survived this time, with victories and minor injuries. Still, they've been without Jonathan Kuminga for a month.  Other teams are not even that lucky.

Now the season enters its most dramatic phase, but NBA fans are being robbed of the matchups of great players, and teams putting their best on the court.  Fans are being cheated, so that owners and investors can rake in more money.

Philadelphia, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas are among the most conspicuous victims so far, with the Lakers now facing an unknown number of games without LeBron at this crucial time.  All these injuries have specific causes, but cumulatively they add persuasive weight to Kerr's analysis.  The League schedules too many games, and then complains when teams engage in load management for their best players.

NBA players make an enormous amount of money compared to most people, and NBA tickets price out most fans.  A lot of revenue comes from "television" but the owners insist on maximizing income from attendance at as many games as possible. In the dehumanized parlance of entertainment, the "product" suffers.  And so do the players who deal with unnecessary pain and disruption from all-too-frequent injuries.  Sadly, it seems it will take a drop in ratings if not attendance for the NBA to do the right thing and schedule fewer games.

Meanwhile, the Butler Effect is giving the Warriors quite a run, and Steph Curry continues to be liberated to be even more amazing.  Their 4-1 road trip and 9 wins out of the last 10 games has vaulted them into 6th place and a playoff spot, but teams are still bunched and at least in the past few days their closest rivals are also winning.  So the Warriors will have to keep winning just to hold onto 6th.  They could move up to 5th past the fading Rockets, but even the best case scenario within a realistic context suggests getting higher than 4th is very unlikely, and they will need help to do even that.  Still, the goal is to get into a playoff series where they like their chances.

In the NFL, lots of teams are about to make moves and a few have already shaken things up. The Pittsburgh Steelers have already acquired a top wide receiver in DK Metcalf.  Now the big question is who the hell is going to be their quarterback.  For a long while the smart money was on Russell Wilson leaving, and Justin Fields moving up to #1.  But more recently, the word is that Fields is eager to test free agency, and doesn't really trust the Steelers coaches.

So is it Wilson again?  Or will they lose them both?  Stay tuned.

 

Trade Winds in Their Sails

 In the two games played so far after the All Star break, the Golden State Warriors defeated two rivals for playoff spots, the Sacramento Kings and the Dallas Mavericks, both by double digits.  They've won three in a row for the first time in awhile, and are 5-1 since Jimmy Butler joined the team.  It's still early but a few things stand out.

First, the swagger is back.  Draymond Green used his All Star commentator status to predict the Warriors will win the NBA championship this year.

Then there are the effects that Butler's presence is having on other players. Over and over this year various other players were touted as the one who would finally unlock Brandin Podziemski's game.  He was especially ragged during the long stretch of malaise that's been most of this season so far.  Nobody quite did it--but in the Dallas game especially, Jimmy Butler looks like he's doing it.  Podz is playing with confidence and decisiveness.  He's still throwing bad passes now and then but he isn't thrown by them.  When he's cooking, the team jells. He clearly clicks with Butler. 

Butler is establishing court relationships with other players, too (he keeps finding the latest roster hire, Quinten Post, for corner 3s and dunks.) But his most important service is liberating Steph.

It's pretty clear that Butler's complete game is freeing Steph to be Steph again.  He's playing with joy again--and doing amazing things.  His blind backwards over the head half court swish in All Star practice was joined by an underhand flip from deep that also swished, drawing oohs and ahhs from the crowd in Sacramento (apparently with a lot of Dub fans there.)  Neither counted--but he's made many sweet shots that did: smooth threes, dribble penetrations and floaters, and so on.  The home crowd at the Dallas game especially saw a show, as he put up 30 in the three quarters he played.

Now the Warriors will be tested in the next few games with opponents they are supposed to dominate.  Can they bring that same activity and intensity and concentration?  These games were never gimmies for them just weeks ago.

Oh, and Jonathan Kuminga is expected to be on the court again during this stretch.  

The LA Lakers big trade also show signs of working out for them.  They look to be rising even as Phoenix is falling.  Dallas is weaker, and with Wemby out for the Spurs, they may not be a factor.  But eyes will likely be on the Lakers and the Warriors for the rest of the season. Who will move up? Can they challenge OKC or Denver?

But before all this, let's mention the All-Star weekend, more or less hosted by Steph Curry and the Warriors, culminating in Steph being named MVP of the game.  The game, the contests (Buddy Hield coming in second in the 3 point) and the time off seem to have revived the Warrior players.  So even if the game format (partly designed by Curry apparently) didn't improve things a whole lot, the weekend ends up being a win for the Warriors.

Tale of Two Upsets and New Look Warriors

I recall watching the first championship game ever officially called the Super Bowl in 1969.  It was then still a game between that season's champions of the two distinct professional football leagues, the National Football League and the American Football League.  There would be one more before the leagues merged.

The first two NFL-AFL World Championship games were won by the NFL's Green Bay Packers at the tail end of their years of total dominance under coach Vince Lombardi.  Partly because of that, and because the NFL was a much older organization, it was felt to be the stronger.  People wondered if the AFL would ever win a championship.

In Super Bowl III (as it was later titled) the NFL was represented by the powerhouse Baltimore Colts, with the already legendary quarterback Johnny Unitias, who'd led them to their second successive one-loss season.  That team also had given up the fewest points in a 14 game season in history to that point.  The AFL was represented by the New York Jets, a franchise that was only nine years old.  Quarterback Joe Namath had played professionally for just four years, all of them with the Jets.  Plagued by injuries, he had still put up impressive numbers.

But the sports wisdom of that time said the Jets were literally out of their league.  The Colts--even though quarterback Unitas was injured--were heavily favored, and even called the best football team of all time.  

I suspect even football fans born decades after this game will know what happened.  Namath's passing shredded the vaunted Colts defense, and the Colts offense (even after Unitas entered the game in the second half) was completely ineffective, with several interceptions.  The Jets won 16-7 in one of the most famous Super Bowls ever.

I suppose sports fans in the future will argue which was the greater upset, but this certainly was a precedent for what happened in this year's Super Bowl.  The Chiefs vaunted offense was utterly ineffective, especially against a ferocious pass rush.  On the other hand, they accomplished their defensive plan: they stopped Saquon Barkley and the running game, and made quarterback Jalen Hurts beat them through the air.  Unfortunately for them, he did.

Behind a dominant offensive line, Hurts supplemented pinpoint passing and effective exploitation of the aggressive run defense with timely runs (leading the team in rushing yards.)  The combination was lethal and dominant.  Two interceptions of Mahomes led to two quick touchdowns, and Philadelphia led 24-0 at halftime.

But as Tom Brady said recently, the Super Bowl is two games, because it is so long.  There is plenty of time between the halves to analyze problems and make adjustments.  The Chiefs were usually good at doing this.  But they managed only one first down in their first drive of the third quarter.  The Eagles marched back down the field and scored a field goal.  It was now 27-0.  

The next Chiefs drive stalled again, ending with a failed fourth down pass. Everyone expected the Eagles to revert to the run game and milk the clock.  Instead Hurts threw a long pass to the end zone on the first play, and in the blink of an eye the Eagles led 34-0.

The Chiefs scored a few times in the fourth quarter, though the last TD was against the Eagles second team defense with about a minute left. The Eagles had added two field goals and won easily, 40-22.  The Chiefs didn't three-peat, it was Jalen Hurt who won game MVP, and a number of other expectations were dashed.

I've seen only a little of the post-game commentary by the sports wisdoms who predicted a close game that the Chiefs always win.  Did they admit anything?  Are you kidding?  They sure turned against Mahomes, though.  

Time to trot out the actual wisdom that applies: this is why they play the game.

The Warriors

After Jimmy Butler joined the team, the Golden State Warriors played at Chicago against the young Bulls.  By the third quarter they were behind 24 points, so not much seemed to have changed.  But on the court it must have seemed to them that everything was changing. They then had the highest point differential in a quarter and a half in modern NBA history, a 49 point swing, to win the game by more than 20.  Steph had 34, Jimmy Butler 25.

They then visited the Bucks, a better team on a 7 game winning streak, though they were without their star Giannis.  Again the Warriors started slowly but built momentum and won that game handily.  Steph had a season high 38 points in his 1,000th career game, and Butler had 20.  So far, with no time to learn the offense, Butler has made a significant positive difference--probably the difference between winning and losing in his first two games.  But that's the rap on Butler--he's great at first.  So far however it's clear that the Warriors are very happy with this trade. 

Impatience

 Not nearly as consequential as the blitzkrieg in Washington the past two weeks, there was a sudden and extensive shakeup in the NBA, especially with what many called the biggest trade in NBA history: a franchise player, Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavs for the most important player on the LA Lakers not named LeBron: Anthony Davis.  Then the Sacramento Kings traded their franchise player, D'Aaron Fox to Chicago for Zack LeVine.  

The Fox trade was more or less expected since he'd made his desire for one public.  But the Luka trade came out of nowhere.  No one outside the principals had any idea negotiations were even contemplated.  Luka didn't know, and even LeBron didn't know.  

So the Golden State Warriors, cautiously exploring the trade market, got their hair blown back.  Not only did they lose out on one of their possible trade targets (LeVine) but two of their closest rivals made big moves that might have strengthened them: the Lakers (who just also added center Mark Williams from Charlotte) and the Kings, both just ahead of them in the w-l.  

Suddenly reports were flying that the Warriors were desperate to make a deal for a superstar. At first the big noise was about Lebron: maybe disgruntled at being kept in the dark and suddenly made secondary, and wary of the ball-hogging Luka, he would ask for a trade, and fulfill his stated dream to play with Steph.  The idea of them together at Golden State was far more potent than any result in the won-loss column.  They were feel-good box office to the max.

But the LeBron boom faded and then it was a trade with Phoenix to bring Kevin Durant back to the Bay--again, another boost to box office for the Warriors and the entire NBA, currently somewhat in the doldrums.  In fact a deal was underway that additionally could have sent the disgruntled Jimmy Butler from Miami to his choice of destination, namely Phoenix.

But on Monday--a day and a half before the trade deadline--Durant apparently let it be made known that he was not interested in returning to Golden State. (They also lost another potential target in Brandon Ingram, who just went from the Pelicans to the Raptors.)

 So the Warrior front office essentially lost their cool and were determined to make a big splash deal, maybe to make themselves look relevant.  They got impatient, and dealt for Jimmy Butler. (As I write this the deal hasn't quite been finalized, and some expect the Warriors to make another move before the deadline about twelve hours away.)

Now it was not more than two weeks ago that Steph Curry and Draymond Green were warning their overlords (through the media) that Butler was not going to fit the Warrior culture under Coach Steve Kerr.  By all appearances, Butler is mercurial and self-centered.  The Warriors have their hands full with one volatile star in Green himself, who may have cost them their near-term future at least three times: by successfully being baited into getting suspended in the finals they then lost to Cleveland, in possibly alienating Durant (although they appear to be friends since), and certainly in the notorious sucker punch that ended up trading away a potential scorer.

Butler is notorious for souring on teams and getting traded after a couple of years.  His stats are of a superstar but they are declining: he is 35, a year or less younger than Steph.  For him the Warriors gave up Andrew Wiggins, who is having his best year since 2022, especially recently, filling multiple needs for the Warriors--a three level scorer who can drive and get to the line, and a lock-down defender.  The Warriors deserved this resurgence, after being so patient with him last year, especially his long absences. 

They also traded away Dennis Schroder, who was supposed to be their salvation when they traded for him in December,  Kyle Anderson and young Lindy Waters III.  What did they all have in common?  They were disciplined, highly professional and dedicated to Steve Kerr and the Warriors culture.  Wiggins was such a favorite with Kerr that in his post-game, post-trade interview, he appeared utterly devastated.  

 Something isn't right with the Warriors on the court, and that had to be addressed.  But things seemed to be right in the locker room, and potentially--I would say probably--losing that could be just as fatal.

The experts so far are saying that the deal makes the Warriors better but probably not enough. I wonder if even that is true.  The Warriors want players with confidence but they don't tolerate primadonnas. Not on a team with Steph, or a team coached by Kerr. Will Butler truly commit to playing Warriors basketball?  I really doubt it.  

Super Bowl: There appears to be only one team playing this year: the Kansas City Chiefs.  Their opponents, the Washington Generals--I mean, the Philadelphia Eagles--impress Tom Brady and a few others, but nobody is betting against the Chiefs, their quarterback, their coach and their football intelligence: all they have to do is stop the run and dare the Eagles quarterback to beat them.  The Chiefs win close games--and nearly all of their games are close--and that's how they win Super Bowls.   So say them all. 

Well, maybe, but they apparently are still going to play the game.  I enjoy watching Mahomes operate but I'm going with the underdog.  Most Steelers fans probably are--not because they are in love with the other Pennsylvania team, but because--thanks to crucial injuries at the end of the 1976 season--the Steelers never won three Super Bowls in a row.  Four out of five, yes, but not three in a row.  Nobody has.  They don't want anyone else to do it.

But at this historical moment I'm also deciding my rooting preference on the news that the Chiefs' Kelce says he's "excited" that the dictator who is currently destroying more than two centuries of American government and the Constitution is attending the game.  Go Eagles.

As for the Steelers themselves, all three of their quarterbacks can be free agents, so they are reportedly trying to decide whether to keep Justin Fields or Russell Wilson.  Not a lot to choose from there.  Coach Tomlin has shown a preference for Wilson, but with him as quarterback the Steelers looked like a dispirited, rudderless team finishing the season.  There must be a lot else going on there to account for this, but it doesn't say a lot about qback leadership...  Of course, one or both (or all three) of them could jump ship on their own, which might say something else.

Patience

 Within a season of such desultory results, the Golden State Warriors and those who follow them closely seem to be watching for smaller signs of future success.  There was a flurry of optimism recently when two-way player Quinten Post got significant minutes in three consecutive games.  Although the Warriors lost two of them, Post still won praise and statistically was a net positive.

But especially in the game they won--a 20 plus point victory over the Bulls--Steph Curry and Coach Kerr were exultant.  Post's 7-foot presence is something they haven't had, but he's also capable of hitting threes (which he did consistently against Chicago.)  He "opens the floor" as they say.

His play, along with the energetic and increasingly skillful play of other young players like Gui Santos, Moses Moody and Brandon Podziemski revived by his rehab for a lingering injury, changed the conversation.  Especially since until now they weren't even in the conversation. But with the injuries to Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green and Kyle Anderson, and Kerr's continuing experiments with lineups and rotations, they've gotten their opportunities.

Now the Warriors at the moment don't look competitive even with their second-tier rivals like the Kings and the Lakers. Their hopes for stringing a win streak during the current homestand may be fading. They were utterly embarrassed by the Celtics, who they beat in Boston early in the season. Everything is trending towards an OKC v. Boston finals matchup.  

But it's not quite the All-Star break, and Steve Kerr is radiating a sense of confidence and patience this week--as the trade deadline gets closer.  Their won-loss record says if there are trades out there, some will be made.  Steph is a little less patient--but then he's interviewed just off the floor, especially after his frustrating shooting night against the Lakers.

 But Kerr--he doesn't seem to be constitutionally cynical enough to be talking up players to make them more attractive as trade bait, so I have to believe he sincerely believes in them.  But it's a risk.  They could all go down together.

The current enthusiasm for Post, Santos etc. follow excitement over Buddy Hield, Dennis Schroder etc. that has faded, so who knows? When Kuminga comes back, the Warriors may have the weapons they need to relieve Curry.  Andrew Wiggins has been showing his old form as well.  With Wiggins, JK, Moody and Post all capable of getting shots all over the floor, this could yet repay Kerr's faith and patience.  But...the trade deadline is still out there.

Football: Ohio State looked like an NFL team playing a Notre Dame college team--at least for the first half.  Notre Dame gave it that old college try and late in the game were in striking distance but Ohio State exploited their gambling defense for another score.  Do the Ohio State players make more money than the Notre Dame players?  I don't know, but they played like they do.

In the NFL, Washington upset Detroit last week, Buffalo out-slogged Baltimore, Philadelphia outclassed the Rams and Kansas City survived with some necessary Mahomes and Kelsey heroics.  The story this week is Kansas City, the reigning champs, who still seem to be doing just enough to win.  To become the first team to three-peat the Super Bowl, they will have to get past Buffalo. Is Buffalo as good as they looked last week, or did they overachieve?  The Chiefs still seem vulnerable, but they've got those playmakers plus that coach.  I don't see Washington beating Philadelphia, but the Buffalo v. Kansas City game could go either way.

Win It For the Draft Money

 What a lousy year for the teams I support and write about here: the Warriors, the 49ners, the Steelers, Giants, Pirates...and now everyone is saying that my sentimental favorite for the national college football championship doesn't have a chance.  Or, since it's Notre Dame, let's say they haven't got a prayer.

Ohio State is so much more talented that Notre Dame, they all say, that an 8 point spread for their defeat is pretty generous.  Notre Dame has also been hit by more significant injuries in the post-season, including several against Penn State.

No one of course knows what will happen on the day, so despite its vaunted offense and defense, Ohio State is vulnerable.  Notre Dame has the best pass defense I've seen, and they bottled up Penn State's runners pretty well.  Their offense is creative and disciplined. They run the ball well.  They are extremely well coached.

Here's the thing about Notre Dame: other teams boast of their "next man up" capability, but Notre Dame exemplifies it better than any team I know.  Just look at the drive engineered by their second string quarterback against Penn State.  

Maybe superior talent will win the day.  But the Notre Dame of legend exemplifies the intangibles.  Nobody talked about Knute Rockne's defensive schemes.  They talked about his ability to inspire.  I wouldn't put a lot of money on it understand, but I'll take the bet.  I'll take Notre Dame.

Back when Notre Dame was my mother's favorite team, possibly because it was one of the few colleges to have their games broadcast nationally (on the radio), northern and midwestern teams dominated.  And they did so for many years after that.  But over the last couple of decades it's been the southern teams.  Now it seems to be swinging back.  Why? 

Colin Cowherd suggests that southern teams prospered because they secretly paid players.  Now that paying players is legal, the big northern and midwestern teams have deeper pockets.  

Now there's something called the transfer portal and players go for the best deal they can get.  Not exactly an argument for the student athlete, or college education in general.  The college programs are just a junior version of the NFL.  This used to be called corruption.  Now it's called realism.  So maybe having a sentimental favorite is beyond silly.

As for the NFL divisional round, I don't really bet so I ignore spreads and concentrate on such details as...The winner!  And obscure items like that.

So while I sense that the Kansas City Chiefs are vulnerable this year, they are a veteran team and most importantly a veteran team at getting to the Super Bowl, and they got better late in the season, so with a couple of weeks rest--and practices for their newer players-- I don't see them losing this round.  In the other Saturday game, Washington is an exciting team but the Detroit Lions on a decent day are better on both sides of the ball.  Detroit.

The Sunday matchups are more even.  If the Texans or Commanders win on Saturday, it will be an upset.  But the Rams at Philadelphia?  The Ravens at Buffalo?  Who knows?

 Though some favor the Rams because of their great game last round, the Eagles are to me the likeliest to make it to the Super Bowl.  It may not even be close: the Eagles.

The Ravens will rise or fall on the performance of Lamar Jackson.  But the Buffalo Bills are formidable, and rarely falter in big home games.  The weather is likely to be a factor--in fact it's predicted to be so cold and snowy that it's a health hazard to attend the game let alone play in it.  So my prediction is: the weather wins.

So I'm going to end this 100% football post with my current pet peeve.  It's what we used to call showboating.  It was the lowest class thing you could do in football, showing disrespect to the game itself.  No longer.  Touchdown celebrations used to be penalized; now they are choreographed.  Do these guys spend as much time practicing plays as they do practicing their celebrations?

But the latest trend is the one that I can't stand: it now seems that every player who makes a first down, has to do the first down signal, posing for his statue in the hall of fame. They all do it the same way, and it happens every damn time.  What is special about it?  What is even interesting? It's just annoying. To me they look like clowns.  But then--that's entertainment, and with all the TV money, that's the business they are in. 

Wilting Warriors--and the Trade Deadline

 Golden State Warriors Coach Steve Kerr spoke little more than a week ago about having no feeling of urgency regarding the upcoming trade deadline.  He liked the players he had, felt they were the most talented group he'd coached and was looking forward to seeing them flourish. 

 If that reflected management's attitude as well, my guess is that it all changed definitively on January 7th. After the game that night is when--I would bet--the Warriors went into high gear to make a big trade, urgently.  There's no guarantee they will find one, or that it will turn out to help. In fact, it doesn't look likely.  But they may be a lot less reluctant to reach out.  

On Tuesday the 7th the Warriors were defeated at home by the Miami Heat, who were playing on the road in the second of two games in a row, after losing in double overtime, their third consecutive loss.  The Warriors were also coming off a loss, another embarrassing one, to Sacramento as well.  But the Heat brought force and the Warriors wilted.  In his postgame interview Kerr did not hide his anger at the lack of effort and competitiveness, the crisis of confidence on his team.  

That's how the Warriors were characterized in stories in both the San Francisco Chronicle and the New York Times on Wednesday.  Fans who didn't leave early Tuesday night booed the team, after they collapsed in the fourth quarter.

But what really made this a paradigm of the Warriors at the moment is the game that Steph Curry had: he scored game high 31 ( the Heat's top scorer had 20) with 8 threes, and a shooting percentage of 50%.  This came on the same day as a long story on the ESPN site about how other teams are devoting their main defense to stopping Steph because they don't fear any other Golden State shooters.  And still he excels.  The story focus on his legendary status but also his age and the coming end of his career. He wants another championship, and the dare was that this group could find a way to get there.

Kerr also said that Steph is having trouble coping with this stretch of mediocrity.  The Warriors are brilliant some times and awful a lot of the time, but at the moment are exactly a .500 team. Count the number of times Curry has said recently, I just want to win.  And imagine you are in the Warriors front office.  What are you thinking today? 

In the meantime Kerr's analysis is that the only thing this team can do is concentrate on defense, and even after the trade deadline that's where it needs to go.