Win It For the Draft Money

 What a lousy year for the teams I support and write about here: the Warriors, the 49ners, the Steelers, Giants, Pirates...and now everyone is saying that my sentimental favorite for the national college football championship doesn't have a chance.  Or, since it's Notre Dame, let's say they haven't got a prayer.

Ohio State is so much more talented that Notre Dame, they all say, that an 8 point spread for their defeat is pretty generous.  Notre Dame has also been hit by more significant injuries in the post-season, including several against Penn State.

No one of course knows what will happen on the day, so despite its vaunted offense and defense, Ohio State is vulnerable.  Notre Dame has the best pass defense I've seen, and they bottled up Penn State's runners pretty well.  Their offense is creative and disciplined. They run the ball well.  They are extremely well coached.

Here's the thing about Notre Dame: other teams boast of their "next man up" capability, but Notre Dame exemplifies it better than any team I know.  Just look at the drive engineered by their second string quarterback against Penn State.  

Maybe superior talent will win the day.  But the Notre Dame of legend exemplifies the intangibles.  Nobody talked about Knute Rockne's defensive schemes.  They talked about his ability to inspire.  I wouldn't put a lot of money on it understand, but I'll take the bet.  I'll take Notre Dame.

Back when Notre Dame was my mother's favorite team, possibly because it was one of the few colleges to have their games broadcast nationally (on the radio), northern and midwestern teams dominated.  And they did so for many years after that.  But over the last couple of decades it's been the southern teams.  Now it seems to be swinging back.  Why? 

Colin Cowherd suggests that southern teams prospered because they secretly paid players.  Now that paying players is legal, the big northern and midwestern teams have deeper pockets.  

Now there's something called the transfer portal and players go for the best deal they can get.  Not exactly an argument for the student athlete, or college education in general.  The college programs are just a junior version of the NFL.  This used to be called corruption.  Now it's called realism.  So maybe having a sentimental favorite is beyond silly.

As for the NFL divisional round, I don't really bet so I ignore spreads and concentrate on such details as...The winner!  And obscure items like that.

So while I sense that the Kansas City Chiefs are vulnerable this year, they are a veteran team and most importantly a veteran team at getting to the Super Bowl, and they got better late in the season, so with a couple of weeks rest--and practices for their newer players-- I don't see them losing this round.  In the other Saturday game, Washington is an exciting team but the Detroit Lions on a decent day are better on both sides of the ball.  Detroit.

The Sunday matchups are more even.  If the Texans or Commanders win on Saturday, it will be an upset.  But the Rams at Philadelphia?  The Ravens at Buffalo?  Who knows?

 Though some favor the Rams because of their great game last round, the Eagles are to me the likeliest to make it to the Super Bowl.  It may not even be close: the Eagles.

The Ravens will rise or fall on the performance of Lamar Jackson.  But the Buffalo Bills are formidable, and rarely falter in big home games.  The weather is likely to be a factor--in fact it's predicted to be so cold and snowy that it's a health hazard to attend the game let alone play in it.  So my prediction is: the weather wins.

So I'm going to end this 100% football post with my current pet peeve.  It's what we used to call showboating.  It was the lowest class thing you could do in football, showing disrespect to the game itself.  No longer.  Touchdown celebrations used to be penalized; now they are choreographed.  Do these guys spend as much time practicing plays as they do practicing their celebrations?

But the latest trend is the one that I can't stand: it now seems that every player who makes a first down, has to do the first down signal, posing for his statue in the hall of fame. They all do it the same way, and it happens every damn time.  What is special about it?  What is even interesting? It's just annoying. To me they look like clowns.  But then--that's entertainment, and with all the TV money, that's the business they are in. 

Wilting Warriors--and the Trade Deadline

 Golden State Warriors Coach Steve Kerr spoke little more than a week ago about having no feeling of urgency regarding the upcoming trade deadline.  He liked the players he had, felt they were the most talented group he'd coached and was looking forward to seeing them flourish. 

 If that reflected management's attitude as well, my guess is that it all changed definitively on January 7th. After the game that night is when--I would bet--the Warriors went into high gear to make a big trade, urgently.  There's no guarantee they will find one, or that it will turn out to help. In fact, it doesn't look likely.  But they may be a lot less reluctant to reach out.  

On Tuesday the 7th the Warriors were defeated at home by the Miami Heat, who were playing on the road in the second of two games in a row, after losing in double overtime, their third consecutive loss.  The Warriors were also coming off a loss, another embarrassing one, to Sacramento as well.  But the Heat brought force and the Warriors wilted.  In his postgame interview Kerr did not hide his anger at the lack of effort and competitiveness, the crisis of confidence on his team.  

That's how the Warriors were characterized in stories in both the San Francisco Chronicle and the New York Times on Wednesday.  Fans who didn't leave early Tuesday night booed the team, after they collapsed in the fourth quarter.

But what really made this a paradigm of the Warriors at the moment is the game that Steph Curry had: he scored game high 31 ( the Heat's top scorer had 20) with 8 threes, and a shooting percentage of 50%.  This came on the same day as a long story on the ESPN site about how other teams are devoting their main defense to stopping Steph because they don't fear any other Golden State shooters.  And still he excels.  The story focus on his legendary status but also his age and the coming end of his career. He wants another championship, and the dare was that this group could find a way to get there.

Kerr also said that Steph is having trouble coping with this stretch of mediocrity.  The Warriors are brilliant some times and awful a lot of the time, but at the moment are exactly a .500 team. Count the number of times Curry has said recently, I just want to win.  And imagine you are in the Warriors front office.  What are you thinking today? 

In the meantime Kerr's analysis is that the only thing this team can do is concentrate on defense, and even after the trade deadline that's where it needs to go.  

A New Year for the Warriors, a Bad End for the Niners

 There's an interesting play of perspectives in the analysis of recent Golden State Warriors woes by Coach Steve Kerr and Steph Curry.

Kerr said that players weren't moving the ball enough and jacking up shots early in the shot clock instead of looking for the open shooter, or simply Steph Curry.  He also mentioned pace and turnovers.  When asked the same question, Curry said it was because we weren't making our shots.  Not making shots is discouraging, which leads to slower pace and getting disorganized, as well as less effective defense.

These two perspectives are different but compatible, and certainly understandable.  Kerr analyzes like a coach, looking at the big picture, at structure and pattern.  Curry analyzes as a player in the middle of it.  

In any case, the Warriors started to look better recently.  First there were two monster 30 plus points games for Jonathan Kuminga on a back-to-back, the first without Curry but the second with both of them on the floor.  Kerr called it a breakthrough of sorts, and a possible key to the future.  It seemed to be a key to the present anyway, as the Warriors won that second game, against Phoenix.

Then a dispiriting loss to Cleveland--but then everybody is losing to Cleveland these days.  And then the new year--and the first two game winning streak since mid-November.  Better yet, the shooting came back, especially against Philadelphia, in which Curry hit 8 three pointers on 8 shots, scoring 30 with 10 assists--one of those magical games in a stellar career.  

But he wasn't the only one--Moody, JK, Schroder and Lindy Waters all had multiple 3s, and as a team the Dubs shot 61% and 56% from three, after a long streak of below 50% shooting.  Ball movement in particular was noticeably robust, which Curry said afterwards was possible because everyone was making shots so there was no problem where the ball ended up as long as the player was open.  

The next game, the Warriors stayed ahead of Memphis to notch the win, despite Curry on the bench for the first in a back-to-back.  Andrew Wiggins stepped up with 24 points, Schroeder had 17, Lindy Waters 16.  And just as Shroder began looking comfortable on offense and made shots against Philadelphia, Buddy Hield (who started) may have come out of his deep slump with 14 points, including 4 threes, and led the team with a plus 18.  

All would be looking very hopeful except that JK went down with a "significant" ankle sprain that is likely to keep him out of the lineup for an "extended" period.  And so the potential of this team remains elusive, which won't help as the Warriors look at the trade deadline in a month.

Meanwhile as the NFL finishes its regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers lost their fourth in a row to the Bengals, who therefore still have a chance to get into the playoffs, joining the Ravens and Steelers from the AFL North.  The Steelers' collapse doesn't bode well, except for a one and done.

The San Francisco 49ers will finish a hellish season against Arizona with their backup quarterback.  Only serious betters are likely to care who wins this one.  Even with all their untimely injuries, the Niners will probably be looking at some major changes for next season.

Otherwise, Kansas City has been looking more like a dominant team, but the Philadelphia Eagles look better.  Both contenders are resting stars for their final regular season game. Baltimore also has momentum, and Detroit, Buffalo and Washington are also in the Super Bowl hunt. 

In college football, the Bowls gave us a Penn State and Boise State matchup that was closer than the score indicated, plus some upsets and close games.  Ohio State demolished the undefeated Oregon Ducks, so forecasters who picked them as likely champions had a good day. 

 Notre Dame was impressive in their quarter-final.  The semis matchups of Notre Dame and Penn State, Texas and Ohio State should be interesting games though for different reasons.  But these games are each a universe in themselves, and predictions are futile.  I'd give the edge to Notre Dame in theirs, and Ohio State in theirs, but anything can happen on the day.

(Not So) Happy Holidays

 The holidays are not so happy for San Francisco sports fans, as the Niners failed to make the playoffs and look like a team in search of an answer.  The Golden State Warriors even admit they are still looking for an answer as they spiraled out of the play-in they qualified for early, even before getting to Las Vegas.  And things have not been much better since.

While the Niners face big questions and possibly big changes in the off season that can't come too soon, the Warriors are in the midst of their quandaries. Things started to fall apart for the surprisingly strong Warriors when De Anthony Melton went down with a season-ending injury.  The Warriors finally addressed that--by trading him?  Not much faith in the future there.  They got a quality player in Dennis Schrader, but what kind of a fit he will turn out to be is still to be determined, as he's had one good game out of the three he's played.  But the magic definitely isn't there at the moment.

Coach Kerr was blunt about one reason, when he said in his press conference (after a rare victory) that if the young players want to take contested shots from 17 feet, the Warriors will be a losing team.  But if they make the extra passes to free Steph Curry for a good shot, they will be winners.  Perhaps that's the reason that Curry has had two of his lowest scoring games out of the last three (those he dominated with 31 in that victory between), or maybe it's other stuff.

Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers are ending their season playing some of the better NFL teams all in a row.  So far they've lost to Philadelphia and Baltimore, and face Kansas City on Christmas in a short week before their final regular season game with the Bengals, currently looking better than they have all year.  The Steelers have already backed into the playoffs, so these games don't mean as much, but momentum at the end of the season does mean something.  

Kansas City continues to be a mystifying team.  They've won so many games on the last play, and even their 27-19 victory over the Texans was closer than the score indicates.  They just haven't been dominant and yet they've won every game but one so far.  Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens should win out and are playing better as they approach the playoffs.  

Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens or whatever other AFC team may emerge, none seems stronger than 4 or 5 NFC teams.  But while Detroit and Philly are dealing with untimely injuries, the Green Bay Packers have momentum (though they have injuries of their own.)  They face Minnesota next, a team capable of at least being a spoiler.  After a mid-season lull, the Washington Commanders are back on a winning track, but with the Falcons and a possible revenge game with Dallas coming up.  The Falcons are worth watching as well.

Bay Area sports fans don't have much to cheer for in the college football playoff bowl games either, but they may appreciate them anyway.  Though several of the Same Old Teams are in it, others like Oregon, Penn State and especially Notre Dame and Boise State make them more interesting.  So happy holidays anyway.    

Mysterious Warriors and NFL Clarity

 As December begins, mystery surrounds the Golden State Warriors.  They started the season with a spectacular 12-3 record, and quickly got into the next round of the play-in tournament. Coach Kerr was deploying a 12 and even 13 man rotation, throwing fresh bodies quick on defense and fast on offence to overwhelm opponents.  A revived Andrew Wiggins was one surprise, as well as the barrage of 3 pointers from Buddy Hield that suggested he might be a "Splash Buddy" to Steph Curry.  Lindy Waters III was another surprise at both ends, essentially forcing Kerr to expand the rotation to play him.  Draymond Greene was a wizard on defense again, and he found his timely 3 point shots.  Steph was Steph, though more quietly.

 Now they've lost four games in a row, including two in which they were more than 15 points ahead in the fourth quarter.  What happened?  The inevitable injuries, even minor ones throwing off rhythms, including a couple to Steph.  But the one that seems so far to have hurt most was the season-ending injury to De Anthony Melton.  He was a steady offensive presence and important on defense.  How important is suggested by those four losses--all the games he's been out so far.  

Other possible factors: Buddy Hield cooled off and other young players weren't scoring as much, important perhaps in two close losses to western foes OKC and Phoenix.  At Phoenix Kerr tried tightening the rotation and playing his starters longer, but a valiant comeback effort in the second half fell short. 

Is it back to the drawing board or just a glitch of focus in a frenetic early season?  Are the Warriors as good as they'd convinced everyone they are, or was that just early energy?  Stay tuned.

In the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers seem to be falling apart.  Thrown off their rhythm by major injuries, they've lost their mojo.  In what was to be their best chance at a championship season, they may not even make the playoffs.

Meanwhile, my other team the Pittsburgh Steelers overcame a phantom of a past I remember well--losing in a Cleveland snowstorm--to outlast the Bengals, while the Ravens lost to Philadelphia.  So the Steelers seem likely to go to the playoffs as AFC North champs, though the Ravens can never be completely counted out.  Kansas City has clinched the playoffs, but their stellar record in mostly very close games seems to have depended more on luck than dominance.  So the Steelers may be legitimate challengers to them this year.  The Philadelphia Eagles now seem the clear favorite to be the NFC entry in the Super Bowl.  

Whirlwind Series

 What--it's over?  This vaunted World Series for the Ages should be just getting interesting.  Instead it's all done.  Dodgers in five.

It was billed as Ohtani v. Judge but as I suggested it might not be, it wasn't.  Ohtani, with an injured shoulder, was mostly a non-factor.  Judge was worse that that.  With a terrible series at the plate he will go into history with that comical look on his face as he muffed an easy pop fly in the fifth inning of the fifth game (isn't that rule one--keep your eye on the ball?) to open the door to the Dodgers, who at that point had but one hit, and the Yankees had a 5-0 lead.  Another error and a third Yankee mistake later, it was 5-5.

Instead the hero was a guy nobody talked about before the Series started: Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman.  He'd gone without hitting a homer for so long that everybody forgot that he knew how.  But with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in the first game, he hit one.  The first grand slam to end a game in World Series history.

And he wasn't done making history.  He hit homers in the next three games, which added to the last time he batted in a World Series, made it six games in a row, an all time record.  He batted in two runs in that fateful fifth inning of game 5, further earning his selection as MVP of the Series.  

There were plenty of home runs in this series but most of the games were low scoring affairs.  Defense was the main Yankee flaw going into it--some would say arrogance--and it turned out to be fatal, especially in the first and the final games.  The Dodgers got very good a la carte pitching, superbly managed, good fielding and timely hitting.  The Series had drama, but it was never really close.

But by shutting down the mighty Yankees, the deeper and more talent Dodgers have made things even worse for the San Francisco Giants.  The impression is that the Dodgers, in the same division, are going to be dominant for years.  That could make the many high quality free agents looking for teams this offseason wonder if they will be signing up for highly paid futility if they join the Giants.  Money to pay a superstar won't likely be the Giants only challenge in acquiring one. 

Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors, after winning all their pre-season games, were electric in winning their first two in the real season, both by huge margins, and both by playing everybody.  They lost their third game when Steph went down with an ankle injury that may keep him off the floor for a couple of weeks. Then Wiggins was also out with an injury. But even without them, the Dubs thrashed New Orleans in back to back games at home.  So far they've been getting stronger as the games go on, throwing fresh bodies at opponents exhausted by their running, fast pace and tenacious defense.  They haven't played a contender yet, but they sure look like fun, with revelations of new faces and re-energized vets.

Both the Niners and the Steelers won marquee games last week: the Niners defeating the Cowboys on Sunday night, and the Steelers outlasting the Giants on Monday night.  Those are both solid steps on a road to the playoffs.

October Classic: World Series, NFL towards midpoint, NBA begins

A World Series for the ages is about to begin.  The two most talented and (not coincidentally) richest teams (and oldest) in MLB are playing each other.  It's actually a marvel it doesn't happen more often.

 It's billed as Ohtani's Dodgers versus Judge's Yankees, but the real heroes of each team can just as likely turn out to be others. With two offensive powerhouses we expect high scoring games, though it sometimes turns out to be a different kind of series. But spectacle--yeah, that's likely to be high, so it's also likely this will be the most watched World Series in history.

Updating my NFL teams, the Niners continue to be ground down by injuries and the resulting discombobulations (a technical football term.) But there may still be time.  Meanwhile, the also depleted Kansas City Chiefs continue to win.  Could the luck of these two teams be reversed by the end of the season? 

 The Steelers on the other hand are on the ascent.  Disregarding just about everybody's advice, Coach Tomlin replaced a quarterback with a winning record with a quarterback just recovered from injury.  After a lackluster first half, the gamble really paid off.  Russell Wilson put 37 points on the board against the Jets, for the highest score the Steelers have attained this year.  And sometimes injuries work for you.  A beat-up offensive line has suddenly become a formidable offensive line with some new blood.  Add to that a pretty tight defense and one of the game's most reliable field goal kickers, and the Steelers could go places.

The NBA regular season has just begun, and though Golden State has played only one game, and that one against an immature opponent, it does appear that Coach Kerr has the luxury of a deep lineup of players that seem to be thriving with any combination of players on the floor.  That is, the team is not only deep in talent, it is a deep team.  Against Portland the first team started slow, Steph being sidelined with a minor injury for a few days seemed rusty but he got his 3 point mojo back in the second half.  Eventually the entire roster played meaningful minutes. They put up 139 points which is eye-opening regardless of the opponent.

The New York Liberty won the WNBA championship--a league that is on the brink of transformation in the next two years.  Players opted for new contracts (as expected) though apparently they'll have to play with the old ones for another year, but by then they might really get paid a living wage (or the equivalent for a professional athlete.)  The league's popularity should earn it better television contracts to finance better salaries, better facilities and travel conditions.  And there will be a new team, from the Bay Area, backed by the Golden State Warriors.