60

After all these months, it got settled in a day: the MN Supreme Court's unanimous verdict on all counts, the Governor ready to certify, Coleman's concession and so: Senator Al Franken.

Though in his victory speech, Franken made a point of saying that he views himself not as the 60th Senator in the Dem caucus (enough to stop a GOPer filibuster), but the second Senator for Minnesota, he did begin his list of priorities with health care and clean energy. So this 60th Dem could not have arrived at a better time. It changes the calculus on healthcare and climate/energy legislation, just as they both are being hammered out.

It doesn't guarantee anything really, but it's a lot bigger than just one more vote. This could turn out to be one of those pivot points of history.

Transition Flood

We aren't talking leaks anymore--this is a flood.

In addition to official announcements (David Axlerod as WH senior advisor, Greg Craig as White House Counsel, Lisa Brown will serve as Staff Secretary, and Chris Lu as Cabinet Secretary), there were apparently sourced stories that Tom Daschle, former Senate Democratic leader, is to be named Secretary of Health and Human Services, and will largely be in charge of getting universal health care created and passed.

Also that, pending final vetting, Janet Napolitano has been named Secretary of Homeland Security, and Chicago businessperson and a chief architect of the Obama fundraising apparatus Penny Pritzker has been likewise slotted for Secretary of Commerce. Update: Pritzker issued a statement Thursday that she's not taking a cabinet appointment. These are mostly Obama people, midwestern and except for Daschle, on the young side of 60.

And more "signs" that Robert Gates is considering/is being asked to, stay on as Sec of Defense.

These gushed out Wednesday, after Tuesday's spill of Peter Orszag as Budget Director and Eric Holder as Attorney General. Most of these apparent appointments have been praised. I've noted elsewhere that Orszag's appointment, along with Obama's message to the Climate Summit signals that the Climate Crisis will be high on Obama's agenda. The same may be said, with Orszag as well as Daschle, that health care isn't going to be left behind either.

But all this continues to be subsumed to the continuing noise over Hillary, will she or won't she. Wednesday saw more push-back in the media, with a few CW heavyweights like Tom Friedman and David Broder warning against it, and more stories alluded to distress within Team Obama over the Drama Queen appearances. The Times suggests Aides in each camp have grown increasingly sour toward the other in recent days as the matter played out publicly.

Also some attempts to mute the media mantra of the Obama administration as Clinton redux. Al G. put it this way:No Obama administration staffers are more guaranteed to be free of Clintonesque manipulation or fantasy than those like Craig and Holder that at great risk to their careers bucked the Clinton machine back when the polls suggested Senator Clinton's "inevitable" nomination to the presidency. They're battle-tested, inoculated and have zero illusions about wanting to relive the failed Clinton presidency. They've learned decisively from its mistakes in a depth and detail that most will never have the chance to do.

If these names turn out to be actual appointments, it does suggest that Obama is fielding less a Team of Rivals as an All-Star team. These are star skill players at their positions.

As for all the transition leakiness, there are reporters complaining that they aren't getting enough leaks. I don't know if I can blame the Clintonistas for all of them. They are starting to look like trial balloons--get the names out there and see if opposition develops, especially for the Cabinet level posts that require Senate confirmation.

Okay, back to the fun part: the election. The numbers continue to roll in, and Obama continues to gain votes. He's gone from winning by 5% in the popular vote on election night to now ahead by about 7%: with over 67 million votes now, Obama has 52.7% to McCain's 45.9.

Even where Obama lost, he gained--or won something. Missouri has finally been called for McCain, but only by 3,632 votes. Obama lost Utah of course--but get this, he won Salt Lake County, which includes Salt Lake City (by just over 200 votes.) The GOP won the county by at least 20 points in the last two elections.

Meanwhile the Minnesota Senate recount has begun--Franken made up some ground on the first day, but there's a long way to go.

Transition Watch

Democrat Mark Begich has been elected as U.S. Senator from Alaska. At this hour the AP and the Anchorage newspaper have called it for him, since his lead exceeds the number of ballots yet to be counted.

Democrats kept a Senate seat in their caucus earlier Tuesday by admonishing Joe Lieberman, taking a subcommittee chair (which while minor, still removes him from any power over climate crisis legislation) but allowing him to remain chair of the Senate Homeland Security committee. Afterwards, Joe the Traitor acknowledged that he owed his retention to Barack Obama.

The Lieberman deal and the prospects of Hillary as Secretary of State are being placed in the context of Obama's postpartisanship, changing how Washington works, as well as getting everybody to work together on some very serious problems. The Hillaryites seem to be trying not to screw up Hillary's options by talking too much, but they can't completely control themselves, as usual. Obama has to suspect that this isn't going to change.

We'll see how this plays out. Though I'd like to see Joe the Traitor dealt with sooner rather than later, he will be dealt with--by the voters of Connecticut. By then maybe he will have transformed himself again. I remain skeptical about Hillary, but the idea is getting general approval. I remain impressed with Obama's consistency, by his vision and by his patience, specifically in these matters.

As far as I'm concerned, the big news of the day--ignored by everyone--was Obama's statement on the Climate Crisis. I'll be writing about that shortly at Dreaming Up Daily.

Drama Queens

The unavoidable gossip beginning late Thursday and continuing all Friday has been Hillary as Sec of State. I'm flummoxed by the whole notion. If No Drama Obama needed any more evidence of what this would bring his administration, the very fact of the firestorm of talk about Hillary, the Drama Queen (and I use the term in its non-gender specific, and non-sexual preference sense) should be convincing. Hillary comes fully equipped with her loud mouthed loyalists, partisans to the core, including some certifiable morons (Lanny Davis) and louts (Howard the Wolf.) Plus the Big Dog.

Meanwhile the stories are battles of contradictory sources. Some say she's been offered the job. Others say there was one discussion, to see if she is interested (and perhaps, one would guess, if she'll submit to being vetted, including questions of Bill.) Some say the Obama team is behind the talk or isn't sufficiently denying it, others say that after Clinton, Obama interviewed Bill Richardson, and he hasn't told anyone who he favors. (Which sounds like his usual modus operandi at this point.)

I don't know these people, I don't know what Obama knows, but from where I sit, it's a bad, bad idea. Hillary is toxic, if only for her people and their brand of vicious partisanship. How can Hillary and Bill Richardson be in the same Cabinet after all the Judas crap of the campaign? And Richardson has to be in this cabinet. I think he's best positioned at State--an outward looking post, a groundbreaker for Latinos, as he represents the U.S. in the world. He's an experienced diplomat and administrator; Hillary is neither. She may be very knowledgeable, which might make her a decent National Security Advisor, but anywhere in the White House she's going to inspire intrigue, second-guessing and backbiting. If not by her, then by her minions. And there is always, always Bill, who not even she can control. If Obama is really considering her--and there are also reports that there is substantial opposition to the idea within Team Obama--then he is a lot more confident/sanguine/tolerant than me, but I see it as, at best, a huge drain on the energy that needs to be focused. Team of Rivals sounds great, but it has to be a team, and I don't see a team player--at least one capable of controlling the rowdy elements she brings with her.

But...there are a few puzzled and doubting journalists among the enthusiasts for the story, with a heavy dose of vituperation from Al G. at the Field, who believes the media frenzy is being generated by vengeful Clintonians who want to deny State to their enemies, Richardson and John Kerry. I'm not quite sure of the logic of this part, but I share the feeling that this is being generated by Clinton loyalists, for whatever reason (like they have to have any.)

And while I'm on my high hobby horse, I was glad to see Pat Leahy and Bernie Sanders go public with their conviction that Joe Lieberman needs to be replaced as chair of the Homeland Security. I'm with them, and not with wusses like Evan Bayh. It's one thing not to hold grudges. It's another to subvert your agenda and complicate what's already a complicated situation in the Senate with competing agendas you can avoid. Leiberman is another Drama Queen.

In Alaska, Dem candidate Mark Begich is now up 1,022 votes, with 24,000 left to count next week. He needs to be ahead by about 1500 to avoid a state-funded recount, which in any case doesn't sound like the ballot-by-ballot hand recount that Minnesota conducts. Sounds like he has a pretty good chance of achieving what he needs without a recount.

Transition and Other Gossip (Plus Farewell to Ted the Felon in Alaska)

Part of why the media and blogosphere are full of misinformation and leaping to conclusions is that this transition is just damn exciting. People are excited! Polls show that ordinary Americans are even hopeful, and the likelihood of sweeping change is exhilarating.

So as long as you and I understand that this is all just gossip, why not indulge? Some of the credible names I'm spotting for Secretary of Health and Human Services: (Dr.) Howard Dean, Kathleen Sibelius (who took on Blue Cross in Kansas) or Tom Daschle (wrote a book on health care crisis.) Sibelius is also mentioned for Commerce, Education, Energy--does this mean she won't get any of them? Not that every appointment has to be a Big Name, but those are interesting ones. The actual jobs could just as well go to folks like James Lee Witt at Homeland Security, or James Comey at Justice.

Bill Richardson is still mentioned for State but also for Interior. That would be interesting, too, though it would be really neat if at last the Interior Department is run by a Native American. Tammy Duckworth is mentioned for both Veterans Affairs and Obama's Senate seat; Max Cleland is the other Veterans Affairs name.

Other big names I mentioned before and still think are credible: RFKjr., Janet Napolitano.

Big names being mentioned I really don't see in the Obama Administration: Ed Rendell, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore (though I'd be surprised if he wasn't a special envoy to the climate treaty next year), Richard Lugar, Colin Powell (don't think he wants another go-round), Ahnold. I do see a job for Mrs. Ahnold. I'm kind of agnostic about John Kerry for State. I don't think it will happen, and he's going to be an important force in the Senate.

Scientific types are really excited about the return of real science to the federal government, and are watching appointments like Director of White House Science and Technology Policy, and some key ones at lower crucial levels in the various departments. They're interested in what kind of scientist, what level of expertise, anything that signals policy. So far, some are pretty impressed with the relevant people on the transition team.

Meanwhile, the progressive blogosphere is very impressed with the transition Internet appointments, and the prospects for the first wired White House.

As for how the administration will work, Karen Tumulty isolates another quote from John Podesta's presentation Tuesday: President-elect Obama intends to continue the Domestic Policy Council and the National Economic Council. The important policy coordination role will be maintained in the White House. ... There's a central function of policy development coordination that takes place at the White House in conjunction with OMB. What he's looking for in a cabinet is people who are very strong, who can carry out the mandate, the missions of those agencies, and do it across the priorities that he's laid out to get the economy moving again, to get jobs moving again, to get wages growing again. "

Ambinder sees a transition paying a lot of attention to process, and: Obama seems to understand that the way he manages the White House during the first few week is absolutely vital to the smooth functioning of his administration after that."

Good news from...Alaska? Oh yeah. At close of business Wednesday, Democrat Mark Begich has erased Ted the Felon's 3,000 vote lead and now leads by 814 votes. With remaining votes to be counted Thursday (maybe Friday, maybe Monday as well) reported to come from Dem districts, Nat Silver sez Mark Begich is now an overwhelming favorite to win the Alaska Senate seat.

Reader Beware

I've been harping here on maintaining skepticism of reports on what Obama is and isn't going to do, who is and isn't going to be appointed, and what Obama does and doesn't want others to do. For increasingly good reasons. There's the pre-spin by people who have a self- interest. There are trial balloons, floated by similarly self-interested people as well as perhaps by the Obama team. There are the usual misunderstandings, by people overhearing things and reporters interpreting information.

Which has meant for instance that this morning headline gets denied tonight, as in the case of the supposed swap meet Bush and Obama held in the Oval Office yesterday. Or in the interpretation of a signal, which leads to strings of speculation, like on the Obama position on Joe Lieberman's fate in the Senate.

It was widely reported--and still is-- that Obama wants Lieberman's status to remain as it is, within the Dem caucus, and even retaining his committee chairs. But his spokesperson Stephanie Cutter indicated today that Obama's position is that he doesn't hold a grudge, but that Joe the Traitor's fate is up to Harry Reid and the Senate Dems. Well, there's a big difference between saying, Obama is not insisting Joe get thrown out, and Obama wants Joe to stay.

As to what we actually do know, John Podesta held a press conference to talk about the transition--TPM has the best summary I saw. The only thing missing is Podesta's response to a question that wouldn't these ethics rules banning lobbyist influence limit the people who might be appointed or be part of the transition? "So be it," Podesta decreed.

As we simultaneously look forward and evaluate the past campaign, Ambinder has this neat summary of why the Obama campaign was successful, such as Practice what you preach (trust the community organizers), and "Win Bigger/Lose Smaller:" "That was an Obama field mantra. The campaign opened up a field office in Warren Co., Ohio, where George W. Bush won by nearly 50 points in 2004. Well, Obama lost Warren County... but by 37 points. That's a big improvement. Losing by smaller margins in those smaller counties is how Barack Obama won Ohio."

And here for the record is another account of dancing in the street
on election day, this time in NYC. As I've said many times, if it wasn't for vicarious experiences, I wouldn't have many experiences at all.

In the continuing adventures of the three missing Senate seats, here's the latest on Alaska. Sounds like we could know a lot more Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Shannyn Moore reveals that election "irregularities" are not new in Alaska--for instance, 2004.

Electoral Map Quest

Map Quest: Top map shows presidential election results. Note that Missouri is still undecided--as of today, McCain is ahead by fewer than 5,000 votes with at least 7,000 ballots to be evaluated and counted. The second map is from the New York Times: the blue areas are where Democrats gained (not necessarily where they won.) In part, this reflects the Obama campaign philosophy of "win bigger, lose smaller." By the way, Obama's popular vote % is now 52.6 to McCains 46.1. You can ignore the Alaska map--there are more than a quarter of the total votes cast that are still to be counted.

One of the post-election front pages that quickly became keepsakes all over the world. Obama has become something of a savior for print journals in trouble.

Stories

As an adjunct to the televised version (below), Salon asked some of its contributors to write about their experiences on election day.

I've also taken note elsewhere of the boon the Obama election has been to newspapers and magazines, which have seen editions about the Obama victory selling out. It happened especially to big city dailies on Wednesday, and perhaps figuring this out, it happened to the San Francisco Chronicle on Sunday when their front page was full of Obama photos and newspaper front pages from Wednesday. Or so I've heard. Because locally, there wasn't a Chronicle to be found by early afternoon, whereas there were piles and piles of the local daily--with its Obamaless front page.

How It Went Down



Glancing back at pre-election posts, I realized there's no account on this blog of how the election returns actually rolled out. This video compilation by Jed L. provides some idea of the network coverage. Although polls closed in part of Indiana pretty early, the state was a long time in being called. Pennsylvania was the earliest indicator of how it would go, and Ohio was the next really meaningful call--it meant McCain couldn't win. It was California and our west coast states that gave Obama the victory, as soon as our polls closed. Virginia and Florida were called at about the same time, or soon after.

The Sunday After

There are two types of Sunday columns responding to the Obama election. One is to marvel at it and what it means, as Frank Rich does. They're great, but they do remind me of a curious lack of closure hereabouts. People keep referring to celebrations, dancing in the streets everywhere, a new attitude in the everday world. Once again, this kind of thing passed me by. I detect a smile now and then in response to my Obama cap, but that's about it. If there was dancing in the street here, it was on some other street. But then, I've usually been in the wrong place at the victorious time for this sort of thing. Oh well.

The second type of column outlines the author's agenda for what Obama should or must do, and in what order. Some of these are worthwhile, like Al Gore's on the Climate Crisis and Paul Krugman on the economy. (Okay, that's a Friday column but you get the idea.) Others are the usual special pleadings based on a single issue or on the author's ego--sorry, I meant insights. These are predictable and generally speaking, ignorable.

There is a bit of ugliness in the post-election reaction to Prop 8 in California, which passed a ban on gay marriages (as did two other states.) The vote itself was pretty ugly, assuming it reflects the actual intent of the voters, which given California proposition history is not at all certain. Manipulating the "yes" and "no" has become a high art of the political marketeers who devise these things. But that a first impulse was to immediate blame of African Americans for how they voted was and remains ugly. It does no one credit. And it doesn't help.

On Friday the President-Elect had a brief press conference. A couple of things he said stand out, although I'm not sure that everyone else got the point. The first was that he would proceed with deliberate haste on cabinet appointments--in other words, not be rushed into making them. And in urging Congress to pass a stimulus package, he said that if they didn't in the lame duck session, he would do it immediately after taking office. He didn't say, he would send a stimulus bill to the Hill in January. He said he would get a stimulus package. Maybe the press didn't pick up on this, but I'm guessing that Congress did.

Hangover

I didn't get much sleep last night and today is packed with day jobness. But I've got a couple of cautionary thoughts about what we've just experienced.

First, the amount of money binged on this election was obscene. I was part of it this time--for me it was overwhelmingly important to help elect Obama. That his campaign raised so much money from so many small donors is a wonder. But all together, the money it takes to do anything in elections--run as a candidate, back a ballot initiative--is pretty awful. And I don't know how sustainable either. There was enough margin in the system--enough loose change in enough pockets--to do it this time. But this time next year? I doubt it.

Look at all the attention paid to raising money. One of Obama's lesser known advisors, Cass Sunstein, is co-author of a book called Nudge, about "choice architecture," which is a fancy name for a particular kind of marketing, which is by definition a confidence game. The Obama campaign was very good at nudging donations from me. And look at all the money spent here in CA on Prop 8--I think it's like 80 million. It looks like the homophobes won, but however it turns out, you can bet the question is going to be on the ballot next time, and even more money will be spent on it. These are millions that could be going for things that have much more direct effects, with multipliers in terms of the good they do. You can educate kids with that. Fill potholes. Prevent some folks from dying in pain because of inadequate health insurance.

Anyway, it's over for me. If my contributions this year suggest to any pols that I can be nudged again, forget it.

Second, this election night proved once again that when it comes to real time information, the blogosphere is totally dependent on the established information media. I see the chortling on Kos etc. about newspapers losing circulation and in danger of going under. But Kos and the Huffington Post etc. have yet to develop more that supplementary sources of information and modes of gathering and delivering it. They depend on the reporting of media organizations: newspaper and television. And that's true beyond such obvious situations as election night. The blogosphere has done a lot in breaking particular stories, and pushing others until the established media pays attention. But without newspapers in particular, the blogosphere would be little more than unverifiable gossip.

The reason is simple: the blogs don't make enough money to support reporters and a news gathering organization. Very few people can make a living directly from the Internet. Those hoary old newspapers still have union jobs. Does Kos? Meanwhile, the people who write for Huffington are just about all sustained by their newspaper, magazine and TV gigs, and the related income streams of books and paid speeches. Even the big players in the blogosphere depend on books, magazine columns and paid speaking engagements.

Plus there are editors. That's a very mixed blessing, and the blogs do have ways of checking people on their information. But that doesn't always work. There were so many diaries on Kos this election season that purported to be first person reports that could just as easily have been fiction.

The Internet was supposed to be a faster source of election news than TV, radio and newspapers. But those sites that aren't part of established media organizations did little but report what the TV said. And usually, long after they said it. The blogosphere has unique potential and fulfills unique functions, but it has a long way to go to be more than amateur in the gathering and disseminating of timely information.

A sign among the 200,000 or so in and around Grant Park in Chicago, celebrating the victory of President-Elect Barack Obama.

A New Day

It's a new day for America and the world, but it benefits from the past. My two best friends from high school, fellow members of Jr. Teen Dems for Kennedy when we were 14, were doing GOTV on election day, as was I. Margaret remembered Martin Luther King talking about the future he envisioned but might not get to see. I saw Jesse Jackson weeping in the crowd at Grant Park, and I remembered his ground-breaking candidacy especially in 1992 when he was the last Democrat standing except for Bill Clinton in the primaries, and when in the darkest days of Reagan and Bush his message and his slogan was, "Keep hope alive."

Everyone who marched for Civil Rights in the early 60s, or against the war in the late 60s, has to feel they had a part in this, even if that generation--my generation--is reviled as a failure.

Now the Obama administration can not only call on the talents of those who have served in the past, but they can profit from past mistakes. My fellow conspirator in the 1970 antiwar movement at Knox College, John Podesta, is a leader of the transition, and as White House Secretary in Bill Clinton's first term (after leaving the White House, he returned to become Chief of Staff in the second term) he was well positioned to see all the problems in the Clinton transition.

All of this will serve the Obama administration well. But for all the talk about well-known Washington figures, I expect that eventually--if not immediately--we are going to be seeing a new generation in Washington. And that's as it should be. This was a generational election. And for once, America may have gotten a head start on its future. Because the electorate that voted for Obama is much more like America's future than are those who did not.

It's going to be a midwestern administration--perfectly positioned between the West, which is the vanguard of America's future, and the East/Middle Atlantic/South which dominated America's past, but they are transforming as well.

Obama's speech was remarkable for being so consistent with what he has said before, just as his closing argument was very close to his opening argument in the campaign. America might not quite yet know what it's got, but that's only because it's hard to take it in all at once. Obama has been saying it all along.

The numbers aren't all in as I write this, but surely this was a unique election, and a transformative one. We can't yet begin to see what it means. Except one thing: now the future has a chance. It will take a lot of work, but that possibility is something else I was afraid I wouldn't see in my lifetime.

Super Barack!

Day of Joy

Okay, now I'm worried. Karl Rove is predicting a 338 to 200 electoral vote victory for Obama. Karl Rove? What's he up to? Sowing overconfidence? A November 4 surprise?

Okay, I'm actually kidding. Rove did say that, but I am not worried, I am preparing for a joyful day and a tears- of- joy night. One of the minor joys of it already is anticipating never needing to say "Karl Rove" again.

I'm not going to run the numbers again. I'm not going to predict margins or states. I doubt that I'll even blog much today, at least not in the way that the sites people will actually be reading will be blogging (and twittering, and whatever the hell else they do.) But who knows?

My plan is: I'll vote. Then I have a couple of options about some modest GOTV. Then here in CA it will soon be time to start checking out returns-- I believe Indiana comes in at 3 pm here, and a bunch of states close their polls at 4.

So I'll be watching: Indiana, and how soon does it comes in? Virginia--very important. Florida. (Which is supposed to be very close.) If these states come in quickly for Obama, it's going to be big. If North Carolina and Georgia do as well, it's going to be very big. If not, then the Obama victory will take longer. I'm going to enjoy the show.

I'm not really worried about Pennsylvania. McCain perceived weakness for Obama based on the primary, but the state Democratic party plus the city of Philadelphia and city of Pittsburgh were all backing Hillary. Now they are all backing Obama. So with confidence in PA--especially after the Monday Night Steelers win in Washington--comes confidence in the final outcome. Ohio will be the icing.

It's not going to be easy for President Obama. As someone said on Charlie Rose Monday night, the question is whether our government can still do big things--because we really need some big things. But with a mandate, and with the way Obama wins--with wide appeal, and on the basis of coming together, on the basis of a grassroots-based victory--he could be in as good a position as is even imaginable.

A conservative columnist quoted Winston Churchill as observing that FDR had a second class intelligence but a first class temperament. Obama, this columnist wrote, has a first class intelligence and a first class temperament. He understands the deep issues. He understands the specific issues. The whole. The parts.

Some pundits insist that he's great with large crowds but not so much one-on-one. They are idiots. You can see Obama literally touching people--he's a guy who relates with his hands. He's head and heart. I won't go all Jungian on you, but he's the most complete person I've ever seen on the public stage. Plus he knows who he is. That's what those first two books are about.

I don't think we're prepared for what we're going to see Tuesday night. Not the results, but the response. Not just across America, but around the world. A lot of people have been holding their breaths. Waiting to exhale. Waiting to sing and shout. We've got another chance. We might save the world yet.

Sad News

Just caught a little of Obama's speech at UNC Charlotte, talking about his grandmother who passed away this morning. How incredibly sad that she didn't live another day, to know that her grandson was elected President of the United States.

But Barack spoke of her as one of America's quiet heroes, and his campaign on behalf of people like her. I don't know if it was misting there, but he brushed away what could have been tears as he spoke.

Awesome

I'm making calls for Barack to Philadelphia today (leaving a lot of messages so far, but at least I can give them their polling place) but took a break and heard Jack Cafferty say, "Tomorrow is going to be awesome." It's the perfect word: AWESOME.

I see Tweety is still trying to make a race of it, but with the CNN reporters I detect a different mood, an anticipation of the history we're making. I'm digging it.

This chart of the most recent polls showing Obama ahead is from FiveThirtyEight: the polls in yellow (or mustard, depending on your screen and color consciousness) are polls that include cell phone numbers. The ones in gray don't. How accurate these different sets turn out to be will be one of the more interesting polling questions resulting from this election.

One Day to Change: It's Getting Better All the Time

Some of those with a vested interest in the race tightening see the race tightening. But consider this:

Tracking polls Sunday showed Obama's lead growing.

While giving its last tracking poll of the campaign, Gallup said:

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

Gallups final presidential estimate: Obama 55% McCain 44%

The latest Washington Post/ABC poll: Obama 54% McCain 43%

The USA Today/Gallup poll: Obama 53% McCain 42%

CBS poll: Obama 54% McCain 41% (the change from Saturday basically the dwindling number of undecideds)

The final Pew poll predicts on election day: Obama 52% McCain 46%

A late addition, the NBC/WSJ poll Obama 51% McCain 43%, which Nate Silver sez is the freshest of the polls--done Sunday--and which I've noticed is usually the most conservative of the major non-tracking polls.

Please note: Obama has a majority in every one of them. And have you ever seen such numbers as 54%? 55%?

As for those polls showing battleground states tightening, consider the PPP poll of Pennsylvania, which shows Obama's lead "shrinking" to an eight point lead, 53%-45%. Two things: last I took math, 53% is a majority. And the poll notes: "Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided."

So if you're a Democrat you're thinking, what's the catch? What can go wrong? Marc Armbinder provides a handy list of the Known Unknowns that could produce results different from the polls, in addition to the polls just being fucked up. Even Democrats ought to be happy with 18 things to worry about.

Well, not quite 18 since that list also includes a few things GOPers need to worry about. But he's leaves out one: By all accounts, Obama is leading by a mile in early voting, but did most of his voters vote, or are there more to swell the totals on Tuesday?

The anti-Obama ad blitz from the Hate Talk Express now includes national play of Jeremiah Wright, apparently sponsored by a 527. It reportedly started Sunday (including Sunday Night Football) and will continue through Tuesday. Not sure if this is the same one as in PA, tagged with the PA republican party.

GOTV, Go Go Go.