Intuition on Obama VP

For whatever this could possibly be worth: I was intrigued by a comment Obama made in his press conference yesterday. He was asked his opinion of Chicago politics. He said that mainly he had always run independent of the traditional Chicago and Illinois machines, but there is a quality of politics in Illinois--which he broadened into a Midwestern trait--of pragmatic problem-solving across partisan divides.

Obama is unlikely to pick someone just to maybe win a state, or only for that person's role in the campaign (some pundit or other said that the only function of the VP was to win the debate with the opposite VP, which is short-sighted in the extreme.) Obama responded to a question about his thinking on the VP yesterday by emphasizing the VP's qualifications to step into the job of President if necessary, and to be a close advisor otherwise. But the electoral map, including the polls today that showed Obama's strength in Midwestern swing states won't be ignored either.

Anyway, my intuition is that Obama has more of a comfort level with like-minded office-holders in the Midwest and probably the West as well. The hegemony of the East and South in dominating Democratic candidates may end this year. So I'm feeling that Obama's VP choice will come from the Midwest, or the West in general. Maybe Claire McCaskill, Kathleen Sibelius, Janet Napolitano, Bill Richardson or somebody completely off the radar at the moment (which is not unprecedented.)

Another factor I have a strong intuition about is age. I don't think Obama is going to pick someone significantly older. JFK did, and he was 4 years younger when he ran. But this is a generational election, and Obama knows that in picking a VP, he's signalling the party's future.

The unknown factor is how much he wants to avoid offending the Clintons. Picking Bill Richardson would probably tick them off big time, and there was noise about Hillary having a problem with any other woman. But if I had to bet right now it would be on one of the three women I named.

Sebelius is the oldest at 60 but she seems the youngest. McCaskill is 55, Napolitano is 51. Obama is reportedly close to all three. McCaskill (Missouri) has been probably the most politically helpful, and she will be a close political advisor no matter what. Sebellius (Kansas) has been the most visible, and Napolitano (Gov. of Arizona) the least, though the White House Project that focuses on women named her as one of the eight female politicians who could be President. Politically, I like her a lot. She has roots in traditional Democratic areas (she would be the first Italian American in the White House; she grew up in Pittsburgh as well as later in New Mexico), she's strong on education and family issues. Plus Arizona is in play, despite being McCain's home state.

Obama Everywhere

If John McCain wasn't getting relatively gentle treatment from the news media (which actually doesn't bother me at this point--but only if they go after him in September), his campaign would be in even more of a shambles. The best thing that happened to him recently is that he has a guaranteed $80 million for the fall, by accepting public financing. The RNC corporatists and lobbyists should kick in at least that much more.

But Obama is staying with his army of donors, 1.5 million and growing. His campaign brought in only $22 million in May, but there are whispers about a huge rebound in June, perhaps to be his biggest month ever. We'll see. But now that it's clear that the GOPers have nothing positive to run on, and must go negative on Obama to have a chance, and remembering 2004 when the Swift Boaters attacked Kerry between the costly primaries and when public financing for the fall kicked in (and even then, because of convention timing, he got about $11 million less than Bush) and Kerry had no money to fight back--well, it made perfect sense to keep the campaign in his control by staying with his donors and supporters, and passing up federal financing.

That's helping him continue to organize a formidable campaign, with a presence in every state. Obama is already showing surprising strength--no more so than in the Newsweek poll which shows him 15 points ahead of McCain. Another set of numbers has him ahead in the major swing states of Ohio, Florida and PA. These numbers may not hold up, but it's better than the reverse. My own guess is that it's closer in Ohio and Florida, but Democratic registration was so strong in PA that Obama will win it. With a concise personal and patriotic first ad ("Country That I Love") and his Father's Day exhortation, Obama is introducing himself to general election voters.

Polls like Newsweek's show that Obama can add the category of women to those (like Latinos, Jewish voters, working class voters, etc.) he isn't really having a problem with, and the importance of that increases on the choice issue--particularly as McCain is under pressure to limit his vp list to anti-choice candidates. Even his highly touted "Appalachian problem" seems exaggerated to one of the most respected numbers analysts in the blogosphere.

Obama came out and pretty much said that he expects an element of the fearmongering the GOPers will try will be on his race, but a Washington Post poll--while it shows racial concerns, prejudices and divides--has this silver lining: 90% of white voters surveyed said they would be comfortable with a black President. The poll shows there is potential for racial mischief, but at the moment, McCain's problems are worse: "Numerous polls, for example, have indicated that McCain's age may be a bigger detractor than Obama's race. And more are now concerned that McCain will heed too closely the interests of large corporations than said so about Obama and the interests of blacks."

But remaining on the list of problems this week at least are older voters, and specifically baby boomers. Though the poll's definition of what constitutes a boomer is not demographically correct (they polled those born between 1944 and 1958; the boom was 1946-1964), it shows Obama behind McCain by 18 points.

Though a decision is likely months away, the vice presidential sweepstakes got a lot of attention last week. The appointment of erstwhile Clinton campaign manager (but now reportedly estranged from the Clintons) Patty Solis Doyle to be that vp's chief of staff seemed to dim the likelihood of Hillary, as did a swing states poll that showed independent voters don't much like the idea of her on the ticket.

A couple of the less likely names also dropped off the list. Barney Frank put the kabosh on Sam Nunn for his anti-gay votes, and Senator Jim Webb came out for off-shore drilling the same week as McCain and Bush did, and Obama spoke out strongly against it. Chris Dodd accidentally got himself a preferential loan, and that may have stopped his chances. Besides Webb's problem, the other Virginians Mark Warner (said he won't) and Tim Kaine (doesn't seem to want to) seem less likely. Bill Richardson seems eager, but that might depend on how campaign insiders felt he performed after endorsing Obama--some stuff I've seen says not so well.

John Edwards seems to have gone back on his "not me" comments, so he remains in the running. As do Kathleen Sibelius and Janet Napolitano. Joe Biden maybe. But I see no chance (and would be very disappointed if) colorless Evan Bayh, old pols Strictland of Ohio and Rendell of PA, and all the other lazy choices. Wesley Clark doesn't seem to want it, though that's just a feeling.

Well, on to more important things, like songs. Of all the Obama songs this year, the one that sticks in my head is this one--"Obama Everywhere in Pennsylvania" by Earl Pickens and Thunder. Message to Earl: get busy on nationalizing those lyrics. I want to be hearing the new version real soon. Can we hear another guitar solo? Yes, we can.

A Long Way to Go

The long-term and more permanent damage that global heating will cause has seeped into even American consciousness, though other more pressing problems keep shoving it to the back of the line. Fortunately perhaps, the more proximate crises involving energy and energy costs may well be playing out in a way that, however sideways in intent, does something at least to lessen greenhouse gas emissions.

But the Climate Crisis is also causing--or making worse, or otherwise contributing to--bad stuff that is happening right now, and is very probably going to happen more in the near future, like extreme weather and its consequences. The more familiar crises these patterns cause are paradoxically the ones we seem unequipped to face or understand. Katrina is the poster child for poor government response and comprehension. But the Midwest floods this week exemplify the weakness of our public information systems, particularly our preposterous news media.

First of all, only major newspapers and the broadcast network news (plus certain shows on CNN) paid much attention. And their coverage was silly. John Stewart made fun of the "human dipstick" approach--focusing on reporters standing in flood waters to indicate how high they were--but that really seemed to be the general level of coverage. It was stupid.

Buried in print reports and blog reports were such facts as 25,000 homeless in Cedar Rapids alone, 24 deaths, billions in damages, toxic waters flooding homes, businesses and schools. Serious stuff, you would think.

What is it about the weather that makes people talk and act so dumb? Is it repressed fear? The cheery weather person dancing in front of the map, sing-songing about record this and not-quite-record that. Temperatures in excess of 100 for days on end, and "it's going to be another hot one out there." And so on. Either that, or it's alarmists breaking into programs to sow fear of a thunderstorm. Are these people that weak-minded?

Meanwhile, people die and weaken in the heat, power grids tremble, drought spreads and kills, fires burn trees (killing their carbon-holding capacity, and spewing carbon into the air), while a sudden tornados ambush Boy Scouts and tear through homes, and floods wash away crops (while perhaps poisoning the ground) and destroy homes and businesses.

It's refreshing that at least one presidential candidate--Barack Obama--heeded the request of overstretched law enforcement in Iowa not to come to be photographed looking at the flood. (He filled sandbags in Quincy, Illinois earler.) John McCain however could not pass up the photo op, ignoring the real needs.

We need a lot more of that maturity and judgment. We need media that can actually report on what's going on objectively, and as comprehensively as possible. Because as these events happen more frequently, and they are more damaging, the fact that they are unpredictable results of a predicted pattern can't come as a surprise, or the capacity of government and other agencies to deal with them to decrease suffering and longterm damage will be severely hampered.

A Good Start for Obama

This was a good week for Barack Obama. As the all-but-official nominee, he took hold of the Democratic National Committee--though Howard Dean (a fellow advocate for a 50 state strategy) remains as Chair, Obama brought in people he trusts, and moved parts of the operation to his HQ in Chicago. The first cadres of newly trained Obama volunteers were dispatched, and campaign offices are slated to open in every state, beginning in some major swing states.

The Obama campaign set up an impressive "Fight the Smears" web site to combat false charges. And while the Bushite administration shows little interest in the plight of the Midwest beset by floods and storms, the Obama campaign is organizing volunteers to help.

New polls taken at about the time Hillary conceded show a bump for Obama, which could be even larger in the next round of polls, taken afterwards. For example, Obama beat McCain by six points in the NBC poll, which had never shown Kerry ahead of Bush in 2004 (and Bush never ahead by more than 4 points.) Other match-up polls together with electoral vote forecasts like this one and this one looked even better. Obama also showed strength in individual state polls in Wisconsin and New Jersey. Also state and national studies showing Democrats or the Democratic party surging to the detriment of GOPers.

Plus the internals of these polls showed Obama gaining among groups where he was supposed to be weak, like women voters and older voters. Obama is more trusted on the economy than McCain. Combine that with earlier studies that showed him leading among Latinos and Jewish voters, and making inroads with black conservatives, plus prominent Republicans like Colin Powell and former Bush press sec Scott McClellan saying they are considering voting for Obama.

So what does this mean for the rest of the campaign? McCain has nothing in terms of issues plus he's screwing up and looking bad. Obama is campaigning aggressively and scoring points, and the country is crying out for change. Though McCain is after Hillary voters, many are consolidating for Obama, while even some congressional Republicans are making it known they won't vote for McCain. So as one cable commentator astutely observed, the only course McCain and the GOPers have is to negatively define Obama in a personal way, so voters won't trust him. Then it won't matter that voters are on his side on the issues.

That's why the Obama campaign is gearing up to counter a very negative campaign against them, while putting the candidate out there where people can see and hear him: familiarity breeds comfort, among those who need reassurance. That's why quickly solidifying himself as the party nominee and taking control of the party machinery this week was so important. Dems smell victories at every level, and they're beginning to sense that Obama is going to get them new voters, even in states he might not carry.

Another good sign--the Obama campaign continues to recruit and inspire its young volunteers, and their imagery is going to be there when media is looking for the story of this campaign. Plus their work on the local level: I heard Howard Fineman talking about the elderly ladies on Polish Hill in Pittsburgh who were a bit wary of Obama, but couldn't conceive of voting Republican. I thought immediately of young Obama volunteers offering to take those ladies to the polls, showering them with attention and their energy and committment. I'd say their votes are in the bag.

There are going to be moments of sheer beauty in the coming campaign. But it's also likely to get ugly.

R.I.P. Tim Russert

I haven't had too much good to say about Tim Russert here. But I learned a lot more about him in the remembrances I saw on MSNBC today, following his sudden death from a heart attack today. He was a superior Washington bureau manager, a mentor, a good friend, and dedicated not only to his family and his child, but to the families and children of colleagues.

Russert was a political process guy, not so good on policy, Tom Brokaw said. Maybe we need reporters who are just as intent on policy and other topics. The flooding in the Midwest continued today, and the reporting I've seen has been uniformly terrible. Print coverage doesn't seem much better. Maybe we need some reporters who bring that same intensity and hunger for knowledge to climate reporting as Russert brought to politics. It's been difficult not to get sucked into all politics all the time during this primary season, but that can't be everything.

The authenticity with which his colleagues spoke of Russert today suggests he was an authentic person, and a good person. He certainly seems to have touched many peoples lives for the good, and that's a great legacy to leave. Some of his colleagues also sounded lost, as if even his process-oriented rigor was a last bastion of quality news at the networks, which is scary. But for now we can note that many people will miss Tim Russert. May he rest in peace.

On the VP Short List

Just a brief comment on the VP short list "leaked" by a Senator who supports Obama. The cable bloviators and some Internet sites made a big deal of this, but doesn't anybody remember anything? This "list" seems to be one person's recollection of people he was asked about. Even if it isn't, even if it was actually "leaked" by the Obama campaign (which I don't believe it was), names have been leaked for all kinds of reasons in the past: as trial balloons, as something to make the people named feel good even if they aren't really being seriously considered, and as diversions for the media from the people who are actually being considered.

There have been times when the VP nominee wasn't even one of the "leaked" names. Paid journalists ought to be looking that up before they go off on their speculations. (Walter Shapiro has a go at Salon.) But then speculation is what feeds the cable/Internet audience: it offers viewers/readers reason to offer their opinions on the names, which provides the necessary illusion that they've got a huge audience. And gives bloviators ways to shape the hot air continously coming out of their mouths.

That Was the Week That Was

A week too astounding to take in yet, it ended with perhaps the biggest surprise: Hillary Clinton gave a gracious speech, endorsing Barak Obama. Despite the bitterness some of her supporters still express, polls show the healing has begun.

But it's Obama vs. McCain now, and a couple of interesting prospects: that Obama will do better than McCain among Latinos (because he already is), and Obama is poised to do what no Democrat has even fantasized doing--getting a chunk of the Evangelical Christian vote--maybe even 40%.

I don't know when Obama said this, but this video shows him talking about his priorities in his first 100 days as President. The issues are Iraq, health care, energy/climate crisis, and reviewing Bush executive orders to reverse the ones that are unconstitutional. Though he probably would emphasize some pressing economic issues now, it's worth a watch.

I notice that some Clinton supporters are making their enemies list. And even though I was with the victor, there are people I will never think about in the same way again (which doesn't include Clinton people I always despised, like Terry McC. and Howard the Wolfson, or pols like Gov. Strickland of Ohio I first met during the campaign and despised immediately) That list would include--well, Emily's List, as well as Bill Clinton, Dianne Feinstein, Paul Krugman, Joan Walsh of Salon ..and a bunch of people I've already forgotten, who will stay forgot.

The Morning After

Our long national nightmare is over.

It's been widely reported and confirmed by higher ups in the Clinton campaign that Hillary will acknowledge reality on Saturday, and endorse Barack Obama as the Democratic Party nominee. And late Wednesday comes a letter from Clinton herself confirming this.

The end came today, and the coup de grace was dealt by her own supporters. First the New York congressional delegation, led by Charlie Rangel (who later went public) told her that her speech last night was a mistake, and that they wanted to endorse Obama immediately, and she should do the same. Then, according to Howard Fineman of Newsweek/Keith, a group of 8 Senators who'd supported her told her in a conference call that the time to endorse Obama is now--a call initiated by higher ups in her campaign.

All this was after negative reactions to her speech, and her attempt to muster her supporters (which led to racist remarks to at least one black Obama congressional endorser's office) and some rebellion in her ranks (Hillary Rosen: "I am not a bargaining chip. I am a Democrat."

The writing was on the wall by the time Clinton and Obama literally crossed paths after he spoke to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and before she did. Especially as he was accompanied by Rahm Emmanuel, who'd been for Clinton but had endorsed Obama just hours earlier.

And the flood of endorsements continued today, including former Clinton supporters Senator Barbara Boxer and Rep. Maxine Waters. Here's one list, and here's another (neat picture.)

Along with the collapse of Clinton's support came a collapse of talk about her being VP. Obama appointed three people to begin the selection process--the surprise being Caroline Kennedy. Apparently she's been advising as well as appearing onstage for awhile now. Update on this point--E.J. Dionne saying at greater length and probity in Thursday's Washington Post what was said here Tuesday night:" Hillary Clinton talked her way out of the vice presidency on Tuesday night. Barack Obama may never have intended to make her the offer. But Clinton's largely self-focused non-concession speech suggested that what some call a dream ticket could turn into a nightmare.

But gaining the vice presidency by invoking leverage just can't work. It makes the presidential candidate look weak. It breaks in advance the trust that running mates need. It can only presage conflicts and power struggles in a new administration. Hillary Clinton is an enormously talented public servant. Many who ended up supporting Obama once hoped to support her. But Clinton's political future requires her to accept that Obama has prevailed, that the primary campaign is over and that graciousness in defeat can, paradoxically, be turned into the most powerful leverage of all. "

Meanwhile, the historic nature of Obama's nomination was especially recognized and applauded abroad:

From hundreds of supporters crowded around televisions in rural Kenya, Obama's ancestral homeland, to jubilant Britons writing "WE DID IT!" on the Brits for Barack discussion board on Facebook, people celebrated what they called an important racial and generational milestone for the United States.

"This is close to a miracle. I was certain that some things will not happen in my lifetime," said Sunila Patel, 62, a widow encountered on the streets of New Delhi. "A black president of the U.S. will mean that there will be more American tolerance for people around the world who are different."

Unless he decides to show up at the Hillary event Saturday, Obama is taking the weekend off. It's about time for this blog to take some time off, too. In fact, to slow down for the near future. So my handful of regular visitors should expect a weekly rather than daily report, as events warrant and the spirit moves.

It's been fun playing pundit, fun seeing that I did it pretty well, often enough anticipating news points and judgments, as well as catching the gist as well as the drift of events. But time to turn to other, harder follies for awhile.

The Big Night

And suddenly there was a flood. Nobody has yet reported the sequence or the names, but around the time that the networks declared Obama the presumptive nominee (which was immediately after South Dakota polls closed, and he only needed a few delegates) the flood-gates of super d's opened. NBC's final count for the day was 59.5, with Clinton losing 3. That put him well over the top, even past the number he would have needed had Michigan and Florida been seated with full delegates. There are likely to be more on Wednesday.

Obama's speech was exciting, and aimed more at the general election public than in looking back on the campaign. He had apparently watched the earlier McCain speech, and was already responding to it, and he reportedly watched Clinton's speech, which may be why he looked to me a bit annoyed. (Or maybe it was just me, because I was seriously annoyed.) Ambinder suggested he was close to tears, and I did catch some of that vibe, too. "Obama thanked his grandmother above all else; without her, he said, none of this would have been possible. She is white, of course. The explicit message is obvious. The implicit message: this thing, this event, is much more than just a step for racial equality."

And as Joe Klein wrote, "His graciousness made Hillary Clinton's lack of grace--and lack of realism about her fate--seem unworthy of her and rather small."

Fortunately, newspapers around the world could care less about Clinton: their headlines were all about Obama. The nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States.

Final note on the primaries: Though South Dakota will show as a 10 point win for Clinton, that amounts to about a ten thousand votes difference. Obama's 16 point win in Montana represents a difference of more than 25,000 votes.

Demented Narcissist For VP?

I don't want to white privilege this by posting it at the top, but it's impossible not to note how Hillary ended the primary season the way she has conducted it since Iowa: with utter lack of grace, decency, truthfulness, and with what Jeffrey Toobin on CNN called her "demented narcissism."

On the night that should have been Obama's, much of the talk was about her speech, her refusal to acknowledge what the rest of the world knew (her speech very symbolically in a room two floors below street level, where no TV, radio or cell phone signals could penetrate), and her preposterous message of telling supporters to go to her web site and tell her what they think she should do. Face reality, maybe? Be a Democrat? Actually try to get all that good things you supported done by backing the only candidate who will do them?

Her denial and her selective reality began when she called South Dakota the last primary. It was the last primary, of course, because it's the last one she's won. She doesn't acknowledge the existence of primaries (like the actual last one, in Montana) that Obama has won. And it went on from there.

Contrast the graciousness and the humility of Barack Obama's speech in St. Paul, before 17,000 in the arena plus another 15,000 outside. It's no wonder that Obama supporters, both insiders and small donors, are horrified at the idea of Hillary being the VP candidate. She is the anti-Obama, in more ways that one.

And she might actually have had a chance, if she had been a tiny bit gracious tonight, and given Obama his due. (She complimented his campaign, in the manner of a not particularly gracious victor.) But she wasn't gracious or generous or even just, and she sounds like she's trying to blackmail him into naming her VP, which would be a total disaster for him if he did. And his supporters now really won't stand for it.

Hillary Clinton may be a shining symbol to some women (even though she's apparently intent on making sure no other woman is named VP but her, hardly a principled feminist stance), but as far as I'm concerned she's a disgrace.

The Big Day

The exciting conclusion posted above...

5:30: Obamagic Number is 9.

5pm: The NBC count is Obamagic Number at 11. CNN has it at 9.

3pm: Now it's a done deal. NBC reports that the Obamagic Number is 14. He's sure to get more delegates than that from today's primaries. And people are really pissed that Clinton is horning in on the headlines today.

2:30 p. Pacific: Obama Clinches Nomination--headline from the AP. Unfortunately the other half is Clinton open to VP. NBC reports a conversation between Clinton and New York congressional delegation in which she said as much, and also that she will not be conceding tonight.

Also the "flood" of super-delegates is not likely to happen until the polls close, and even later in the week--there's an awful lot of deference being paid to Clinton. It's good riddance as far as I'm concerned, and if she and her manic idiot staff go on a campaign for vp I'm going to throw up.

Also it's not clear what numbers the AP is using (though other sources are anticipating leaked endorsements to come after polls close) because with today's semi-flood of super d's so far, the Obamagic Number is 27.5. At least 10 more are going to have to declare to seal the deal by the time Obama speaks tonight.

The Big Day Before

So here's the buzz: Hillary may (or may not) suspend her campaign tomorrow evening (Tuesday), in a speech in New York. Signs are strong that she is finishing her campaign, but I rate a concession tomorrow as doubtful. I think it is more likely Wednesday in Washington. But signs are that it is coming, though with the Hillaryites, you can never be sure.

The buzz is also that Obama campaign is trying to get enough super d's to declare tomorrow so he will be able to declare that he's passed the Obamagic Number for the nomination when Montana and South Dakota delegates are counted. How close is he? The NBC count gives Obama 4 super d's today, moving his Obamagic number to 39.5.

Rep. Jim Clyburn of the House leadership is declaring for Obama tomorrow, and is actively calling other super d's to do the same. Chuck Todd reports the rumors that some 34 House members and a dozen to 17 Senators are set to endorse Obama this week, most of them by Wednesday. But how many tomorrow? Obama is expected to get about 17 delegates from the two contests tomorrow. If he gets at least 23 super d's during the day and evening, then he can declare victory.

Buzz is also that Obama and Clinton have talked, and that their staffs have started talking. But if Clinton is serious about doing all she can to help Obama win, she will concede tomorrow so he can use the national audience he will get to start the general election campaign, as the presumptive candidate of a uniting party. But it is much more likely that the Hillaryites will serve her ego, and Bill's, and glorify themselves tomorrow, then concede quietly a day or a week later.

Eyes on the Prize

11 p. The Obama site is calling the Obamagic Number: 46.

6p. Pacific Sun: With two new supes and a projected 17 delegates from Puerto Rico, the Obamagic Number is 46.5 (though NBC has it at 45.5 with Obama credited with just 15 P.R. delegates. So it may be 43.5.)

I'm going to try to avoid saying vile things about the serial liars and general assholes of the Clinton campaign, up to and including the candidate, and keep my eyes on the prize. Gee, it's really working so far.

Rules and Games

Circus and civics it was, as the Rules Committee had a morning session, then took a long "lunch break" to decide on compromise proposals for Florida and Michigan. Both states got to seat their full complement of delegates, but each now has one-half vote, including super-d's. The delegate apportionment for Florida compromise got unanimous support, but Harold Icky, the head Clintonista, objected to the Michigan compromise with some vituperative language, ending, "I have been instructed by my candidate [HRC] to reserve the right to appeal this to the Credentials committee." That, and the constant interruptions by Hillary's Hooligans in the room, put on hold any sense of party unity. But the decisions, as Chuck Todd said on MsNBC, affirm that this is now Barack Obama's Democratic Party, and no longer the property of the Clintons.

What does it mean for the race? The new "magic number" for the nomination is 2118. Reserving the right to change these numbers, for they are approximate, the Obamagic Number is 65 (Chuck Todd), 66 (AP) or 68 (CNN), depending on who you ask.

Just about the only open questions now are: will Obama pass the Obamagic Number by Tuesday night? Will Hillary take the fight to the Credentials committee and the convention?

Before the heavyweights weigh in--and I'll update this post as their posts start appearing--here's my intuition: Icky's threat is going to alarm enough super-delegates who were thinking of waiting until June 4 to declare, to declare sooner, so that Obama will have the national stage on Tuesday night to start the campaign against McCain in the highly symbolic St. Paul site of the upcoming GOPer convention. And that Hillary will not appeal. There are two reasons she won't: 1. both proposals had the support of the state parties, which makes it very difficult for her to do so with any credibility except to win more delegates for herself. 2. Enough super-delegates will declare for Obama to establish him as the nominee long before that committee meets at the end of June.

Updates Start Here: Based on his estimates of what Obama is likely to get from Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana primaries, Al G. at the Field estimates that Obama needs 25 super-d's to win the nom. He and the Jed Report concur that the Iccy threat is empty and this isn't going to the convention.

Chuck Todd updates his numbers ("the New Math") here. According to NBC figures, the Obamagic Number is 62.5. But it's changing even tonight as Mich and Fla are sorted out, and as new super-d's declare. But at the moment, if Clinton and Obama split the remaining contest delegates 50% each, Obama will be 20 delegates from the nomination. The Obama campaign has not yet updated its numbers.

The Day Before (With Update)

CNN is treating tomorrows Rules Committee meeting like a major event, with live coverage. (So is MSNBC.) With the Clintonistas protesting outside, could be a combination of circus and civics lesson. Maybe that's a good description of our political system.

Anyway, Chuck Todd has a description of the agenda and the formulas being discussed. Apparently the scenario he outlined yesterday he still thinks is the most likely, resulting in Clinton gaining 19 dels in Florida and the pop vote counts; Michigan splits 50-50, after their delegation is reduced by half. Figuring Obama's likely del gains in the upcoming primaries, Todd figures he will be all of 15 delegates short of the new Obamagic number of 2118 after Tuesday. But there are other possibilities that will require more super-d's. What's not going to happen, he says, is the Clintons getting all they want.

After what may turn out to be a fascinating unity event Saturday night in New York, there's the Puerto Rico primary on Sunday, which will be over by 3 pm Eastern. The Clintons are all over the island but this story questions whether a whole lot of people are going to vote. Officials there predict a half million voters, and this story says maybe not that much. Hillary needs a big turnout as well as a big win to continue her already ridiculous claims of a popular vote lead.

Today several outlets are quoting Hillary saying in a Montana press briefing that she expects super-dels to begin declaring right after the last primaries on Tuesday, responding to the Pelosi and Reid exhortations. She said she would support an appeal of the Rules Committee decision tomorrow if Florida and Michigan officially made appeals (which is very unlikely.) She says she hopes the nomination is settled by June 3. So we're getting half-heartedly conciliatory Hillary today.

Conciliation might be in order if she wants to have a political future in New York. After stories last week about the fence-mending she needs to do with New York African Americans, this poll suggests she's losing the support of her own state. Half of Democrats polled want her to drop out of the presidential race, with just 43% supporting her staying in. More New Yorkers believe Obama is the stronger candidate, and his favorables have gone up (to 62%) while hers have gone down.

All of this is happening while on another track entirely the general election campaign is being engaged, with heated exchanges between the Obama and McCain campaigns, and most the news focused on the Scott McClellan book. It's a schizoid moment.

Obama got two super-d's today so far. The current Obamagic Number is 41.

Update: The story is circulating that Obama will declare nomination victory on Tuesday night at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN--the very place where the Republican convention will be held. As those two guys say on the commercials, "Brilliant!"

Donna Brazile has made a fascinating statement on her web site, which I've excerpted at Dreaming Up Daily, under a great photo from Montana today.

Nerves (with Updates)

Today the mediageist is hesitating, suggesting that maybe this nomination thing is going to continue past June 4, but still be over by June 15, or June 30. The Clinton campaign sending signals that it is planning beyond June 3, which could be gamesmanship to not discourage its voters from voting in the upcoming primaries. But they could be serious.

The unknowns involve how much bigger the magic number will be after Saturday. Chuck Todd writes that in the plan that seems to have the most support at the moment, it would turn out to be 2118. How quickly Obama gets to that number depends on delegate allocation, the results of the primaries and how successful the Obama campaign is in getting super-delegate committments for June 4 and 5. Their aim likely is to run up the score to 2210 as soon as possible, because that would be the magic number if all the Florida and Michigan dels were fully counted, and therefore a convention challenge to the Rules committee solution would be useless to Hillary.

The question still seems to be when and if Hillary will concede and end all doubt. There is growing noise that not to do so by June 5 would severely damage her political future.

Chuck Todd suggested that a little persuasion by the triumverate of Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid would more or less force her out. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi told the SF Chronicle that she would step in to help resolve the nomination question if it's not resolved by the end of June. Update: Harry Reid is on board as well.

On the other hand, it still could be over on June 4. Rep. James Clyburn, member of the Dem House leadership and a S.C. super-delegate, announced he will endorse on Tuesday. That could be a signal. As today's statements by Pelosi and Reed (see update above.)

With no reliable polling, the South Dakota contest on Tuesday is expected to be close, with Obama having the edge due to organizational advantages.

Roger Simon has a funny column at Politico about the drama gap between the Hillary and Barack campaigns.

With one super-del today so far, the current Obamagic number is 44.

UPDATE: AP reports further: Top Democratic leaders intend to push for a quick end to the battle for the presidential nomination when primaries are over next week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday, adding that he, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and party chairman Howard Dean will urge uncommitted delegates to choose sides. "By this time next week, it will all be over give or take a day," Reid said of the marathon race between the front-running Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Democratic officials said Pelosi already has begun contacting uncommitted House members urging them to weigh in soon after the primary season ends. Numerous Democrats have expressed concern that a protracted nominating campaign could harm the party's chances of winning the White House in the fall. John McCain effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination in March."

Another story suggests that the Clinton proposal faces "tough, if not insurmountable odds" at the Rules committee meeting Saturday, but that the Clintonistas plan to appeal an adverse ruling to the Credentials committee (which others said is unlikely to succeed) and then to the convention.

Putting these two stories together, the outcome could be that Obama passes all the magic numbers next week, Clinton suspends her campaign but doesn't concede, or she neither suspends nor concedes--and the party essentially ignores her. The danger for her is that they will keep ignoring her for the rest of her career. If Obama wins in November, she'll be the sore loser. If Obama loses, she'll be blamed.

Update on Delegates: score one more for Obama. Current Obamagic Number: 43.

Clear and Clearer

Though the book indicting major administration figures by a former Bush press secretary has taken the media wind out of the Dem Rules committee meeting Saturday, there is still news about it. Principally that the committee's lawyers have given their legal opinion that by rule no more than half the Michigan and Florida delegates can be seated, no matter how they are divided among the candidates. Though the Clintonistas are arrogantly demanding that the party violate its own rules and decisions (the decision to not seat the delegates at all once had the support of all the Clinton supporters on the relevant committee), it's almost certainly not going to happen.

The questions that remain are who gets how many delegates, and whether to allow these states their full slate of super-delegates. But no one now believes that the decision will affect the outcome, and Obama will remain ahead in delegates.

While the Obama campaign has called on its supporters not to demonstrate outside the committee meeting, the Clintonistas are organizing their protests. But Marc Ambinder says "this will almost certainly backfire and wind up steeling the committee's spine."

Count Tim Russert of NBC--as close to an establishment voice as there is in the media now--among those saying that the race will be over Wednesday, June 4.

There is a new Puerto Rico poll that has Clinton at 51% and Obama at 38%, although half said they may not vote. With those percentages, Obama would get at least 24 of the 55 elected delegates, but if Obama does a few points better and it's 49-40%, it would be considered a victory in the expectations game.

Wednesday Obama picked up 4 super-delegates. The Obamagic Number: 45.

Looking forward to the general election, this AP story that says "Barack Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries with women, Catholics and others who will be pivotal in this fall's presidential election. Yet early polling shows that with several of these groups, he's competitive when matched against Republican John McCain."

And this analysis that says Obama is already ahead of McCain in enough electoral votes to win the presidency, but this is likely his baseline--he has the potential to win big.

It Will End Next Week

All signs now point to an end to the Democratic nomination fight a week from now, or maybe a week and two days, with Barack Obama becoming the Democratic Party nominee for President.

Saturday the party Rules committee meets to resolve the Michigan and Florida situations. There are signs that the Hillary campaign is ready to deal, and although the formula may be different for each state, there will be a resolution, and it will not affect the outcome. These deals may be negotiated this week, but it may take the reality of the meeting--I read somewhere that the more Hillary has talked about this, the angrier committee members have gotten. The Hillaryites may have to see that anger before they go for the best deal they can get.

This should be a pretty dramatic Saturday. First the Rules meeting, with a Hillaryite demo outside, reminicent of the thugs who scared the vote-counters in Florida in 2000 (those of you with HBO can see it all dramatized again.) Then a big party fundraiser with both Obama and Hillary people, hosted by Al Gore.

Then Sunday the Puerto Rico primary. Hillary is expected to win--mostly because she's familiar and backed by key unions--but nobody really knows. Depending on how these two events go, Hillary may have her last news day on Monday. Then Tuesday, June 3, Montana and South Dakota end the primaries. Montana is a lock for Obama, SD is probable.

Then the super-d's end it. Marc Ambinder reports that "as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 -- or 2210, as the case may be. " Last week President Carter predicted this will happen, and it sounds like he will be one of them.

Others are agreeing that something like this will happen, and the race will be over.

Or it could end a bit sooner, if Hillary decides to concede before her last two likely primary defeats on June 3. But I don't expect that.

Today's Obamagic Number is 48.5

Low and Lower (with Update)

Hillary Clinton's campaign continues to set new lows in continuing to be the most pernicious, vile and monstrous lying bunch of morally depraved politicians that the Democratic party has seen in a long time. They may even be going beyond the corruption routinely practiced by their new hero, Karl Rove.

In this past week, rabid Hillaryites were screaming to CNN that Obama had better offer the vp to Clinton or they will scorch the party, and the Clinton campaign blamed this talk on the Obama campaign.

Today the Clinton campaign accelerated its attempt to blame the Obama campaign for the shock, horror and disgusted reaction to her RFK remarks. Two of her chief idiots, the vampire Terry McAuliffe and the werewolf Howard Wolfson went on the Sunday talk shows to make these obscene charges, even though when asked, Barack Obama attempted to excuse Clinton's comments as misspeaking in a long campaign. Can you even imagine what the Clinton campaign would be doing and saying had Obama made anything approaching the stupidity (best interpretation, since her "historical" references were inaccurate in just about every way) and creepiness of Clinton's statement? There's some projection being played here, as well as indecent politics.

And even after all the horror expressed in the media--including the NY Times and Washington Post--Hillary Clinton herself got an oped placed in the New York Daily News defending her RFK remarks. Not apologizing for them, but defending them. There is no defense for them, on historical or any other grounds. RFK's assassination had nothing whatever to do with the fact that the 1968 nomination went beyond the first week of June. Nothing. In refusing to confront the inference that practically everyone has made, she continues to enact the kind of denial that we know so well from the current president. This country cannot afford another such individual anywhere near the White House.

Meanwhile, Obama picked up 3 add-on super-delegates. On Sunday he filled in for Ted Kennedy to give the commencement address at Wesleyan University. It was a call to service, a preview of his administration, a tribute to Ted Kennedy and a peek at his own youth, college days and first job. It's about twenty minutes and worth the time, and on YouTube right here.

Monday Update: 3 more super-dels today. The Obamagic Number is 49. In latest Montana poll, Obama is ahead by 17 points.

Grim and Grimmer (with Updates)

Clinton's assassination comment got a lot of play on cable news; Keith O. spent almost the entire Countdown on it, plus a special comment. I'd rather it didn't get any mention--it isn't something you want in the air--but it's taken on a life of its own. I was surprised but impressed by the number of people--like historian Douglas Brinkley--as well as bloggers, who said that this is a disqualifier, and indeed may have ended not only her presidential bid but unless she begs for forgiveness in very explicit terms, ended her political career.

She said it was an historical comment, but that only makes it more bizarre. Others have pointed out that there are many better examples of the race extended into June and beyond that don't involve a candidate being killed. But what I haven't seen anyone note is that it isn't even accurate in terms of the 1968 Democratic nomination. By winning California, Bobby Kennedy had successfully become the candidate with the most primary wins, and he defeated Sen. Eugene McCarthy. But he wasn't the nominee--not even the presumptive nominee. The whole system was different then. Primaries didn't yet decide the candidate. RFK was still facing a summer of fighting for the nomination against the sitting Vice President, Hubert Humphrey (who by the way, didn't run in the primaries, so Clinton's argument for staying in the race falls apart right there.) The nomination was going to be decided at the convention--just as it had been in 1960, when JFK had won the most primaries, but was facing a lot of opposition.

But back then, campaigns were shorter. They didn't really begin until Labor Day. The nominee wasn't the nominee until the convention said so. It's very different now, and McCain is already leading a Republican Party that will not offer another candidate to oppose him at their convention. The harm that Clinton is doing is obvious from just this week in Florida, when Obama tried to take advantage of McCain's lobbyist problem, but Clinton's big mouth took attention away.

What this probably will end is any speculation that Hillary will be on the ticket. Despite the latest threat from a rabid Hillaryite. (Like the Obama fundraising operation is going to be scared by the in-debt Hillary fundraiser threatening to hold back funds.)

Ambinder rates the vp choices this way:

1. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) -- Obama really likes her; that's very important.
2. The Virginia boys: Kaine and Webb
3. Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) -- the Clinton stand in.
4. Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
5. Sen. Hillary Clinton -- there's a fine balance between subtle pressure and overt hectoring
Wild card: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)

This is the best list I've seen so far, except for 3. and 5. Hillary is out, and I don't have the slightest idea why anybody thinks Obama is going to choose a buffoon like Ted Strickland. I still see him standing behind Hillary nodding as she cries, "Shame on you, Barack Obama!"

UPDATE: The New York Times describes the political firestorm set off by Clinton's RFK remark. In part:

Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, which has refrained from engaging Mrs. Clinton in recent days, said her statement “was unfortunate and has no place in this campaign.”

Privately, aides to Mr. Obama were furious about the remark.

Concerns about Mr. Obama’s safety led the Secret Service to give him protection last May, before it was afforded to any other presidential candidate, although Mrs. Clinton had protection, too, in her capacity as a former first lady. Mr. Obama’s wife, Michelle, voiced concerns about his safety before he was elected to the Senate, and some black voters have even said such fears weighed on their decision of whether to vote for him.

It was against that backdrop that Mrs. Clinton’s mentioning the Kennedy assassination in the same breath as her own political fate struck some as going too far. Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, an uncommitted superdelegate, said through a spokeswoman that the comments were “beyond the pale.”

Update 2: Here's the transcript of Keith's Special Comment. Here's a Kos diary that collects some of the other comment on Hillary's RFK statement, including an excerpt from a piece by Libby Copeland in the Washington Post: "There are taboos in presidential politics, and this is one of the biggest. To raise the specter of a rival's assassination, even unintentionally, is to make a truly terrible thing real. It sounds like one might be waiting for a terrible thing to happen, even if one isn't. It sounds almost like wishful thinking...

The fear of a president or a presidential candidate being shot or assassinated is horrifying precisely because recent history teaches us that it can happen. We don't need anybody to remind us, and we certainly don't need anybody to remind whatever suggestible wackos might be lurking in the shadows.
In the context of Obama, Clinton's words broke a double taboo, because since the beginning of his candidacy, some of Obama's supporters have feared that his race made him more of a target than other presidential hopefuls. Obama was placed under Secret Service protection early, a full year ago. To be unaware that one's words tap into a monumental fear that exists in a portion of the electorate -- a fear that Obama's race could get him killed -- is an unusual mistake for a serious and highly disciplined presidential candidate.
It's surprising, too, because something very similar just happened last week, when Mike Huckabee made a joke at an NRA convention about somebody aiming a gun at Obama. He later apologized and called his remarks "offensive." He also could have called them "instructive" for any politician paying attention."

Another diary at Kos points out the fear, especially in the black community, that someone will try to kill Obama, the death threats his campaign receives, and despite Secret Service protect, the courage displayed when Obama campaigns so openly.

Speaking of all this openly may increase the danger, and yet it may also increase vigilance. It did bring into the public dialogue the fears that apparently many people have had, including me. Of course, Clinton introducing this as a reason to stay in the race is abhorrent in the extreme.

The End Games

The week ends for Barack Obama with some big audiences and strong speeches in Florida, a pick-up of six superdelegates on Friday with a report of many more to come, and a slew of new polls that show him getting stronger against McCain in key states.

It ends for Hillary Clinton with a statement that suggests there is something really wrong with her. And for John McCain with another round of dismissing supporters.

Hillary gave as her latest reason for staying in the race that Robert Kennedy was assassinated in June, so--the logic dictates--if Obama is assassinated, then she'll be there to be the Democratic candidate. Such a statement in the week that Ted Kennedy was diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor, and shortly after Mike Huckabee joked about Obama being shot at, is either: politically insidious and pernicious in the extreme in its suggestion, or evidence of a person completely and dangerously out of touch with the darker side of her unconscious.

Rachel Maddow has now written about Clintons end game, which is to continue as a candidate to the convention on the back of the Michigan and Florida situations, which as she points out can be appealed no matter what agreement is achieved or Rules committee decision is made. She suggests that what Obama can do is get the super-delegates to declare in sufficient number to ensure him the nomination even if the two states get 100% of their delegates based on the results of their phony elections.

There's also been noise on Friday about Clinton "supporters" trying to negotiate with Obama supporters to get Obama to offer the v.p. to Clinton, even if she then rejects it, or face "civil war" in the party. This also has the air of desperation.

On the brighter and perhaps more realistic side, Obama got another two Edwards delegates Friday, and super-delegate endorsements that include a Clinton supe who defected, with a statement citing the Michigan-Florida fracus as a reason he had to declare for Obama now in order to begin the general election campaign united. According to Al Giordano of the Field, this delegate--Rep. Dennis Cardoza of CA--is just the first: "The Field has learned that Cardoza is the first of a group of at least 40 Clinton delegates, many of them from California, that through talking among themselves came to a joint decision that all of them would vote for Obama at the convention. They have informed Senator Clinton that it’s time to unite around Obama, and that they will be coming out, one or two at a time, and announcing their switch between now and the convention if Senator Clinton doesn’t do the same." [emphasis is Al's.]

This blockbuster story comes a day after Al G. asserted that Clinton has already asked Obama to name her his v-p, and he refused. So far nobody else has picked up or confirmed these stories, but it must be pointed out that Al G. is not just one of us synthetic bloggers (synthesizing information reported by others) but an active political reporter with sources gained over years of reporting. (Like me, he once worked for the Boston Phoenix.)

Meanwhile, Kos dissects this latest round of polls, and it's pretty much all good for Obama, even in Ohio and Florida. According to the Obama site, he now needs 56 delegates to reach the current magic number for the nomination.

Ted Kennedy asked Obama to give the commencement address Sunday he was scheduled to give. Obama had great crowds in Florida this week, but this video clip from a smaller one is a real gem. "We all have a piece of each other." Watch, listen and enjoy the first weekend of summer.

Attention

One of these days I'm going to resist the temptation to talk to myself about politics here. I used to get frustrated about having no outlet, even a semi-imaginary one, like this blog. Now I'm seeing hours go by better spent in other pursuits. Oh well.

I also know that people are getting really sick of this campaign. So I am really. But Hillary struck fear in many hearts on Wednesday by going to Florida and raising the stakes on her insistence that Florida and Michigan primaries be counted, even saying in an interview that she's willing to take all of this to the convention. Some of her aides speaking anonymously said she doesn't really mean it; another one, on the record, said she does.

That she stepped on Obama's message in his Florida speech (20,000 heard him in Tampa) attacking McCain for his ties to lobbyists--a very important issue to raise at this moment--is enough in itself to annoy the Democratic Party leadership starting to gear up for the general election behind Obama. But she probably raised some other alarms. Either she is talking tough to get a better deal coming out of the Rules Committee on the Michigan and Florida delegates apportioned, or this is a real threat that could seriously wound the party's chances.

She said she would pursue this if the states in question weren't satisfied, and while Michigan seems eager to make a deal, she could be in league with Florida. Michigan has more Obama supporters and support. Florida's Dem leadership has been taunting the party over this for some time, and they may throw in with Clinton on this. It's suicide all around, so it's hard to see whose interest is really served.

Some are suggesting that Obama simply agree to seat all the delegates in the proportions reflecting the outlaw primary results, and he'll still win. But though the Rules Committee likely will defer greatly to Obama and Clinton, what isn't mentioned in this discussion much is that the Committee is set up to deal with party rules, and there are members whose loyalty is to the party. If Michigan and Florida aren't penalized at all, even though they violated the rules and the party (led by Clinton loyalists) voted for sanctions, then the party's authority means nothing.

Clinton's argument likening "counting all the votes" in these contests to the 2000 elections, not to mention Civil Rights and the Magna Carta, is disingenuous in the extreme. These weren't elections, because everyone involved knew they weren't supposed to count. This Floridian notes that even the party called their primary a "straw vote." The sheer meaninglessness of the exercise kept an unknown number of voters home. And in Michigan, of course, Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot. Counting these votes as if this were a real election would be the real injustice, and lots of Democrats know it. So we'll see if the Democratic Party actually has a backbone, because the party and its super-delegates can stop this.

There's another way to look at this, and that's as one of the last ways Clinton has to get attention. Billary made news Wednesday, even though they lost the morning headlines which emphasized Obama passing the majority threshold of delegates by votes. And while Clinton got the attention of Obama supporters and probably of party insiders, it's not clear how much she got elsewhere. Said this Reuter's report: " Attention, whether from button sellers or the national media, is leaving the fading presidential candidacy of Sen. Hillary Clinton behind as the former front-runner faces what most see as impossible odds to win the Democratic nomination...While Obama and McCain spar -- the two clashed this week over whether the United States should talk to leaders of hostile nations -- Clinton's struggle to collect votes in Florida that were cast months ago but invalidated feels like a sideshow."

Attention may be a problem for Clinton after today. There are only three contests left, and the next one (Puerto Rico) is almost 2 weeks away. Though she is favored to win it, little is really known about it, and several Kos posters have suggested it may not be a lock. In any event, it's unlikely to be a blowout. And then Montana and South Dakota are likely Obama victories.

All she's got really is the May 31 Rules Committee meeting to use to make news and stay in the media/public eye. We'll see how successful she can be. But while Hillary talks about the sexism her campaign has suffered, I find it interesting that while most male commentators believe she's going to go gracefully and support the nominee in early June, it's women--led by Rachel Maddow--who are convinced she'll stop at nothing.

The Day After

Some updates on yesterday's events...People are still trying to nail down the Clinton figures but it appears her campaign took in $22 million in April and by the end of the month was more than $19 million in debt. Obama raised $31 million in April and ended the month with $37.3 million in the bank.

Delegates: according to the Field projection:Oregon: Obama 31, Clinton 21. Kentucky: Obama 14, Clinton 37.

On the race: Billary on Wednesday were bloviating about Florida and Michigan in extreme terms, and the convention fight card got shown. This may emphasize Rachel Madow's contention that Hillary is not going to get out of the race until she is forced out.

Ambinder noted the racist vote in Kentucky, while this bothered CNN commentator David Gergen enough that he called for Clinton to reject racist votes. But Chuck Todd sees Kentucky differently: One other thing to keep in mind regarding Clinton's success in Kentucky and West Virginia, and it has to do with the Clinton brand and the economy. These folks in Appalachia have been hit harder by this economy than folks in other parts of the country. And the last time things were looking up was when a Clinton was in the White House. So while there are a lot of folks wanting to think the worst of some of these voters, let's keep in mind: Appalachia and the Rust Belt, more than any other region of the country, are more likely to vote their pocket book when the economy is in the toilet. And this is where the Clinton brand comes into play.

But Todd also sees Obama's so-called working class white problem as specific: Obama doesn’t have a problem with white working-class voters; he has a problem with white-working class voters in Appalachian states. In Kentucky, just one in five of these folks backed him, but in Oregon nearly half of them did.

Todd goes on to muse on the influence of the calendar on these races, and on the perceptions of what they mean that drive the media political monologue: Like above, a lot has been made of the rather simplistic way to figure out who wins a state primary by examining the demographics. But let's not forget the influence the calendar has had. Imagine if states like California, New Jersey and Alabama stayed in their traditional slot of first Tuesday in June? Imagine if Kentucky and West Virginia hadn't been held on days with so few other primaries -- and so much attention placed on them. The order of these primaries has been as influential as the demographics. Would Clinton have won California, Florida and Michigan by the margins she did had those primaries been held after February 5? Would South Carolina been as influential on the national media's psyche if it had been held on February 5 or afterwards? Obama's being over-examined right now on his so-called white working-class problems. But would we even be focused on this issue if Kentucky and West Virginia weren't so prominent on the calendar?

Something else I've noticed about perception is that the numbers they are based on get locked in at a certain point, even though they may change. The media has not caught up with the tightened numbers in Ohio, Indiana and Nevada, for example. They use exit poll information that may have been revised long before. Right now Obama's margin in Oregon is fixed in the media narrative at 58% to 42%, which it was for a long time. But right now, with 96% of precincts reporting, it's 59% to 41%.

Results

Clinton won Kentucky roughly 65-30. Kos pulled out the SUSA polls there from March till now, and Obama never got more than 30%, and Clinton hovered around 62%. Add to that the exit poll stat showing that 21% of Kentucky voters admitted race was important, and they voted by 81% for Clinton. That's more than the 16% who said gender was important, and they voted by about the same proportion for Clinton. So those hard-working racists won another one for her.

So we got the predictable babble about Obama's white working class problem, even though he was later to do very well with white working class voters in Oregon, where he's winning by 16%. Some commentators also tried to point out that Kentucky is a solid Republican state while Oregon is a swing state leaning Democratic, so there goes Hillary's electability argument. (Her hubbie did win Kentucky, though.) What these primaries have shown is that racism is still a factor among uneducated whites in Appalachia, but fortunately, not many other places.

The AP chimed in with a dose of reality early, calling Hillary's win in Kentucky" a victory with scant political value in a race moving inexorably in Obama's direction." Obama spoke in Des Moines, claiming an absolute majority in elected delegates and calling the nomination "within reach." Otherwise, it was a formidable general election speech, both eloquent and issue-oriented. Here's a transcript. Here's the video.

It took Rachel Madow joining the MSNBC panel late to point out that the latest national Gallup poll shows Obama gaining in nearly all demographic categories, including women and the white working class. Older women are the only ones holding for Hillary.

Howard Fineman also reported on what's likely to happen next, and it all depends on how things go in that meeting on May 31 about Michigan and Florida, which is likely to result in some sort of 50-50. If Hillary's forces play nice and accept the compromise, super-delegates will hold off providing Obama with his absolute majority of all delegates until just after the final primary on June 3, so she has time to get out gracefully. If her campaign won't play ball and threaten to make a fight of the Michigan and Florida situation, those super-delegates will declare sooner. But it's not IF those supes will declare for Obama, it's WHEN.

The campaigns made their obligatory reports on campaign donations from April, but the Hillaryites in particular were playing it coy, so it's not clear what their numbers mean. Maybe later today it'll get clearer, along with some better idea of delegate allocation from these two states. I wouldn't be surprised however if there isn't a major super-delegate announcement too.

For some it's Tuesday, for some it's History

After that amazing crowd Sunday in Portland, OR--which some now estimate at 80,000, Barack Obama picked up 5 super-delegates Monday, including Senator Robert Byrd. That's history, already--in his much younger days, Byrd was a member of the Ku Klux Klan and an opponent of Civil Rights in the 60s. Monday he endorsed a black man for President of the United States.

In Montana, Obama was adopted into the Crow nation in Montana, the first presidential candidate to be so honored. More history. His speech showed real understanding of American Indian issues and point of view.

Over the weekend, this article came out, analyzing Obama's "problem" with Jewish voters, and concluding that he doesn't really have one. Jewish voters prefer him to McCain by a large margin, in the most recent Gallup poll. Speaking of Gallup, their tracking poll Monday showed Obama with a 16 point lead.

But now we're talking Tuesday. The cable/TV babblers will begin around 6 pm Eastern (when most polls close in Kentucky) and 7 (when they all close.) If the opinion polls are correct, they should project for Hillary pretty quickly. But then the talk will be more like this AP story from Monday--because even with a loss in Kentucky, that state will provide enough delegates to give Obama the number necessary to claim a majority of total pledged delegates available from all the contests this year. (The range of delegates predicted for Obama in Kentucky is 17 t0 19. He needs 14.5 for a majority.)

Hillary will claim victory but she'll be history by then. Obama will speak in Iowa and note the history his campaign has made, and the babblers will ask, dare the super-dels counter the will of the voters? Let me save you some time: No.

It won't be until 11 Eastern that Oregon begins to announce its vote count. It's a closed mail-in primary, so people will have until 8 PM Pacific to drop off their ballots. A lot of ballots have already been sent in, including a record number this past weekend. Those will be ready to count. Though one cable show I saw quoted the outlyer among polls that shows a close race to drum up some drama, most polls show Obama with a significant lead--in fact, one poll suggests that by Monday Obama had already won. So come 11PM Eastern, Oregon should be projected for Obama pretty quickly.

The predictors have Obama winning 29 to 32 delegates in Oregon. So if he wins 30 in Oregon and 17 in Kentucky, Obama ends May 20 about 62 delegates shy of the number needed to nominate.

Though the babble on Tuesday night might be about the hard-working white voters who didn't vote for him in Kentucky, by Wednesday morning the headlines are likely to be about Oregon--and maybe they'll even mention the hard-working white voters who voted for him there.

Obama speaks to 75,000 in Portland, OR Sunday.
According to Jed Report, that's as many votes as
Hillary got in her worst 8 states combined. If you
were in the back of this crowd, you were a half
mile away from the podium.

On the Cusp of Victory (with Sat. and Sun. Updates)

Barack Obama got 4 new super-delegates Thursday and one Friday (several of them important members of the California congressional delegation), 2 more from North Carolina as adjustments, and at least 7 Edwards' delegates.

According to the Obama campaign, they are now 17 delegates shy of a majority. That will happen Tuesday night, at the latest. The only real suspense is how big his Oregon victory will be, and how close will he come in Kentucky? 20 point victory in O, and getting 40% in K would be A-OK.

In Kentucky, the Lexington Herald-Leader has endorsed Obama with much the same argument as other newspapers:

But while Clinton is an adept practitioner of politics as we know it, Obama is offering something new. He makes a convincing case that he can lead this country without sowing fear and dividing people, the cynical ploys of a political era that has run out of steam.

Obama has given voice to a widespread yearning not just for a changing of the guard but for a changing of the game. And that ability to express a people's aspirations is a mark of leadership.

Like President John F. Kennedy, another senator who electrified young people, Obama also has the substance to transform idealism into action.

The New York Times considers how Republicans fear Obama will put much of the South in play. Marc Ambinder has an interesting Atlantic article on how Obama may use the Internet as President. For instance:

What Obama seems to promise is, at its outer limits, a participatory democracy in which the opportunities for participation have been radically expanded. He proposes creating a public, Google-like database of every federal dollar spent. He aims to post every piece of non-emergency legislation online for five days before he signs it so that Americans can comment. A White House blog—also with comments—would be a near certainty. Overseeing this new apparatus would be a chief technology officer.

But the news of Thursday and Friday was Bush's flat-footed accusation of appeasement, the immediate defense by prominent Democrats, and Obama's swift response to presidential swift-boating, and pointed analysis of Bush-McCain foreign policy failures. After McCain proposed earlier in the week that he and Obama debate without moderators, I'll bet by Friday he was plenty sorry he mentioned it. It's clear already that Obama debating Democrats and Obama debating McBush will be two very different experiences.

Although Obama made a couple of appearances in Kentucky, he's not scheduled to go back before voting on Tuesday. He does have more offices on the ground there than Hillary, but it's not clear how much effort is being put into that state, where Hillary has been way ahead in the polls.

Obama will campaign in Oregon today (Saturday) and tomorrow, and campaigns in Montana on Monday. He's in Florida Wednesday, but so far nothing on his schedule for Tuesday. Where will he be when he passes that magic number, a majority of delegates in primaries and caucuses? Stay tuned.

Sat. Update: Where he will be on Tuesday evening is a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, the state where his candidacy first went before the voters, and where he won his first delegates and first victory...Saturday Obama also was endorsed by another super-delegate. He now needs 119.5 for the nomination. Not sure if that tally yet includes another delegate pick-up in Nevada where the caucus process was completed Saturday. Though Hillary Clinton claimed victory there initially, the final tally according to The Field is Obama 14 delegates, Clinton 11. The Jed Report estimates that Obama's take today is at least 3 delegates, and perhaps 2 more. Jed's projections (I don't know what they're based on) gives Obama a lock on the nomination number.

Meanwhile, there's this video--low on substance, but nicely done.

Sun. Update: Think Obama might win Oregon? He spoke Sunday before a crowd in Portland estimated at 75,000. That's about twice the size of his previous biggest crowd, in Philadelphia... Meanwhile, the Jed Report goes into more detail on why Obama has a lock on the nomination. His estimate includes conservative projections for delegates gained in the last contests.

According to this, on Sunday Obama got 2 add-on delegates from California's primary (Hillary got 3) and Obama picked up a super-delegate from Washington state.

Countdown to Ecstasy

Turn out the liights, the party's overr, at least as far as the Clinton campaign is concerned. Hillary Clinton won big in West Virginia (although Obama actually got more votes there than McCain did running unopposed in the GOPer primary), and it made no difference. Through the day Wednesday, Obama got endorsements (from 3 former SEC chairs to the womens' choice advocacy group NARAL) and another 4.5 super-delegate votes, to go with the four supers and two pledged delegates he got Tuesday.

Hillary's expected WVA win Tuesday was all but overshadowed by the shocking pick-up of a Republican congressional seat in Mississippi that the national GOPers fought hard for, by a Democrat endorsed by Obama who was attacked with TV ads trying to link him through Obama to Rev. Wright.

But Hillary's tour through the TV news shows was utterly overwhelmed by the theatrical endorsement of Obama by John Edwards, amidst a huge throng in Michigan.

Here's Ambinder's list of why the endorsement and its timing is significant (although Obama doesn't automatically get Edwards' 19 delegates, as he suggests), and TPM's brief summary. Edwards got to speak before a bigger and more enthusiastic crowd than he had during his own campaign, and he manifested his pluses and minuses: he can be incredibly eloquent, but he runs it into the ground. Obama let it be his moment, and they did look good together, so I expect he'll be as big a part of the campaign as he wants to be (but not v.p.), and part of an Obama administration.

So if you were plotting this dramatically, Hillary was given her moment, and now the rest of the week is a build-up to May 20. The Obama campaign may or may not exert itself more in Kentucky than they did in WVA--they probably will--aiming for at least a respectable 40 or 45%. But they're ahead by 20 points in Oregon, and that could give him a majority of pledged delegates (he needs just 25 according to the Obama campaign count; 28 according to NBC).

Obama needs about 133 total to achieve the nomination majority, and now it looks that it's going to be a matter of orchestrating when that will happen. I suspect it will happen June 4, the day after the last primary. But it could even happen before then, especially if it's believed that symbolically Obama should get the majority with votes from a contest, not from super-delegates. So the suspense is over, and as far as the Dem campaign goes, the next few weeks should actually be fun.

Preemptive Blather

Keith posed this quiz to guest Dana Millbank: Who said this? Hillary or a Saturday Night Live satire?: "West Virginia will be a turning point in this campaign." Millbank knew right away: it was Hillary. But it was satire anyway.

Hillary will likley win the WV primary today by a huge margin, and get in the neighborhood of 19 or 20 delegates, the numbers folk say, while Obama will win 8 or 10. She'll pick up a net of maybe 12. But in the week since North Carolina/Indiana, Obama has picked up 26 total super-delegates. And it's no longer who gets more delegates, but how many Obama accumulates. His campaign figures he's 150 away from nomination. An AP story Monday said that if he continues to win supes at that pace, he'll have the nomination by the last primary on June 3 (assuming there hasn't yet been a deal for Michigan and Florida that changes the total he needs) even if he loses 3 of the last 6 contests (including WVA.)

Obama folks are bracing for one more bad day: today. Then comes May 20, when with a win in Oregon, Obama is expected to have gained the majority of delegates available from contests--which in itself will spring Nancy Pelosi and her cache of super-delegates. I haven't seen anything recently about Puerto Rico and how close he may come to Clinton's expected plurality there, but that's the last one she's expected to win.

Even the cable news gabbers hysterically trying to fill time with blather today will be hard-pressed to change the story line. I expect a lot of their nonsense to be about the general election. But they still haven't figured out what Frank Rich wrote about Sunday: this is a different election in a different year with a very different candidate. It's been pretty different so far, but they just aren't learning very fast. I don't plan to be watching.

(By the way, Jed Report shows that two polls agree that McCain's association with Bush is more harmful to him than Obama's association with Rev. Wright etc.)

Meanwhile, after appearances in West VA and Kentucky Monday, Obama is campaigning in Missouri, Michigan and Florida (where he'll also be working towards a solution to seat their delegations) as well as Oregon this weekend.