The Good News

Despite the ugliness fomented by the McCain-Palin campaign--and partly because of it--there is more good news. Tuesday's talk was about the CBS/New York Times poll which has Obama with a whopping 14 point lead among likely voters, 53% to 39%.

Is it too good to be true? While it may be an outlyer, Nate Silver believes it's only a modest one. And Tuesday's round of state polls showed similar numbers in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Looking at pollster.com averages, Kos notes that Obama is polling over 50% in states that add up to 308 electoral votes.

But what the New York Times chose to emphasize about its own poll is this: "The McCain campaign’s recent angry tone and sharply personal attacks on Senator Barack Obama appear to have backfired and tarnished Senator John McCain more than their intended target, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll has found....The top reasons cited by those who said they thought less of Mr. McCain were his recent attacks and his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate."

Still, there are other indications that Obama is getting more positive support rather than simply benefitting from negative views of McCain. TMP highlighted a number within the LA Times poll which shows a plurality of voters for the first time say Obama is experienced enough to be President. In the NY Times poll, 7 of 10 said Obama has the right temperament and personality to be President, with McCain breaking even. More than 60% said Obama understood their needs and problems, less than half said that about McCain.

Though there is some danger of complacency, being up in the polls also increases enthusiasm, and that activist attitude--the movement as Obama calls it--plus the unique methods of organization and all the attention paid to it on the ground level are really paying off. For another example, some 17% of Ohio voters have been contacted by Obama advocates--an historic percentage.

And the interest is there, even for the seemingly crazy ideas, like Sarah Silverman's "Great Schlep"--there's this account of an Obama kid going to talk to his grandparents about Obama, and winding up talking to 100 retirees who wanted to hear him. Perhaps even more powerfully, there are events like this one leading to marches to the polls to vote in early voting states.

Meanwhile, McCain has announced that tonight's debate won't be a "game-changer," a cliche that will forever be associated with this campaign. If he doesn't come away with an inconceivably major victory, it could be a game ender.

Tuesday on the Hate Talk Express

While the rabble was being whipped up by a rabid right party hack before a Palin hate, during a diatribe on Obama, someone in the crowd shouted "Kill him."

From Keith Olbermann's Special Comment: "Obviously, Senator, you haven't heard your own speeches, and Gov. Palin's, and what people shout during them. And you haven't heard your state GOP Chair in Virginia, Jeffrey Frederick, giving talking points to 30 of your field-operatives heading out to canvass voters in Gainesville, Virginia. With a reporter present, telling them to try to forge a connection between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden to emphasize bombings and terrorism. And you haven't heard those volunteers, your volunteers Sen. McCain, shout back "and he won't salute the flag" and "we don't even know where Sen. Obama was really born."
Sen. McCain, these people are speaking for you!...

You, sir, are responsible for a phalanx of individuals who are shouting fire in a crowded theatre. There are some things to respect and honor about you, Sen. McCain. But on this, you're not only a fraud, Senator but you are tacitly inciting lunatics to violence. If you want to again grand-stand and suspend your campaign here's your big chance. Suspend your campaign now, until you, or somebody else, gets some control over it and it ceases to be a clear and present danger to the peace of this nation."

Stratergery

The McCain campaign was reeling all weekend, with one GOPer talker after another GOPer politician badmouthing and abandoning them. But there are still 21 days to the election. They can make some moves. Unfortunately for them, so can the Obama campaign. And the moves they made on Monday tells you the difference in their strategic thinking.

McCain went for a reboot, a restart of his underdog image. Unfortunately, his basic line--that he's a fighter--and even some of the actual lines (Obama is "measuring the drapes" for the Oval Office) are the latest in a long series of thefts from the Hillary Clinton primary campaign. So what does it say about a campaign that it compulsively steals ideas that have already proven not to work?

Obama on the other hand, who might be tempted to sit on a substantial lead, took the initiative by making several new proposals for an immediate economic "rescue plan for the middle class." The brilliance of this move is in several areas. First, he's telling people what he wants to do, just as they're getting used to the idea that he may well become President. He's zeroed in on ground-level changes, instead of financial institutions. Beyond the public measures he proposed, he also talked about public and private responsibility, about ending the era of living beyond our means. That reassures Independents and Republicans, as well as making sense. He's given people specifics they've asked for, but he's again done it in a larger context, in his call for change. In his themes of we're all in this together, and the importance of this political moment. "Believe in yourselves, believe in each other, and believe in the future."

It is brilliant as well in its timing. It gives Obama something to focus on in the final debate--not with a single surprise proposal, as McCain did, but with an integrated and thought-out plan he introduced in detail. And this initiative may have stolen the initiative from McCain, whose surrogates were loudly announcing all weekend that he would be making new economic proposals on Monday. He didn't, perhaps because his campaign got wind of Obama's intent, although the Obama campaign was typically silent about it much in advance.

Then on Monday McCain's campaign stated that McCain wasn't going to make any new economic proposals--but then suddenly it was announced that McCain was giving a speech on Tuesday with new proposals. So McCain is in the position of reacting, and having his business-friendly tax proposals (as they are rumored to be) contrasted with Obama's emphasis on jobs and Main Street.

With the poll number continuing to get better for Obama, with the Obama campaign outspending and outworking McCain, there is no let up, and Team Obama is continuing to be aggressive. Meanwhile contradictory messages continue to come from what's left of the McCain campaign, including on Wednesday's debate. Some suggest McCain will again stay away from the Ayers stuff that is proving so toxic to his approval numbers, while others promise that McCain will bring it up. McCain has himself raised the stakes and the expectations by promising supporters to "whip [Obama's] you know what."

Wednesday is the last time McCain may have the attention of a large TV audience, assuming people are still going to watch. If he loses this debate, there is no strategery in the world that can help him. And even if he wins, or some external events shake things up, it may only make his defeat a little closer.

But it's also no time for complacency for the Obama campaign--which seems to know that very well--or for supporters. It may still get even uglier (somebody in the McCain campaign says they are saving the really good stuff for the last two weeks) and other campaigns--apparently including Kerry's--thought they had it in the bag but did not. Whatever nervousness we may naturally have, however, the Obama campaign is earning our confidence. They really did that on Monday.

Monday on the Hate Talk Express

QUESTION: The chair of the Republican Party in Virginia has said, quote, in Time magazine, "both Barack Obama and Osama Bin Laden have friends that have bombed the Pentagon. That is scary." Is that appropriate for a state party chair to be saying?

MCCAIN: "I have to look at the context of his remarks.

I have always repudiated any comments that have been made that were inappropriate about Senator Obama. The fact is that William Ayers was a terrorist and bomber and unrepentant. I don't care about that. But Senator Obama ought be the candid and truthful about his relationship with Mr. Ayers in whose living room Senator Obama launched his campaign and Senator Obama said he was just a guy in the neighborhood."

What Election Are They Covering?

Dangling at the top of Daily Kos on Sunday was the latest Research 2000 daily tracking poll on the presidential race, showing: Obama 53% McCain 40%. Once again, it's not just the 13 point margin, it's the 3 points over 50%. It's McCain below 41%.

And at one point under that number, the Kos himself noted how the major media are doing their best to ignore what the numbers are saying. He referenced Chris Bowers showing that according to the Washington Post, Every state in which McCain has a lead, even if it's just 2.2%, is a "leaning Republican". Every state in which Obama has the lead, even if it's over 10 percent, is a "battleground". Bowers quotes 5 respected electoral projections, all of which have Obama winning handily--but not the major networks or newspapers. His conclusion: Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely)."

Maybe that's why they paid so little attention to the finding of VP candidate Palin's abuse of power as Gov. of Alaska, which is against Alaska law, voted unanimously out of a committee comprised of 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats. And about which Palin was permitted to lie repeatedly.

But the numbers are getting relentless. According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado, "The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point." And what one numbers person after another says--which is pretty much what a lot of Republicans are also saying--is that while it is not absolutely impossible for McCain to win...it is most unlikely. The only time since modern polling started that a presidential candidate was behind by 8 points this late, and came back to win, was Reagan in 1980, who was the change candidate in a change year. What seems to be happening then is that the change candidate this year has made the sale a couple of weeks earlier than Reagan did.

And now the Washington Post/ABC News poll is out with that same astonishing 53% for Obama, to 43% for McCain.

Here's another number from Sunday (that Reagan didn't have): Obama got 15 newspaper endorsements, and McCain got none. "In three weeks, Americans will be called upon to make an exceptional judgment worthy of the times. The forces of history appear to invite boldness and the Post-Gazette believes they should be heeded by voting for the only authentic, fresh agent of change in this race, Barack Obama." --said the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. Among the other endorsements: the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Asheville NC Citizen Times, and the Tennessean.

We're apparently going to hear a new number soon: a record-breaking month of September for the Obama campaign in donations and probably in the number of donors.

How about the numbers on the McCain-Palin attacks? Apart from the thorough debunking of the Ayers assertions in their campaign ad, public polls show that the attacks aren't working for McCain-Palin--instead the attacks are working against them. The Obama campaign has its own private polls that show the blowback on McCain-Palin is even worse, with their unfavorability ratings shooting above 50%.

The ugliness may be taking on a life of its own--which is what many people fear--but at least the pedigree of the hate-mongers is being exposed. Republicans who have been swimming with their heads above the slime for years are now drowning in it, with nobody to save them but racists, anti-Semites, hate-filled fundamentalists, secessionist nutjobs and exploitable morons.

Some of them--it looks like many of them--are trying frantically to get out of the scum pool before it's too late. McCain is losing GOPer leadership support, notably now in Florida, which he absolutely must win. Notes the Independent: "Senior members of the Republican party are in open mutiny against John McCain's presidential campaign, after a disastrous period which has seen Barack Obama solidify his lead in the opinion polls."

Democrats on the other hand are getting as close to Obama as they can, and talking openly of a 100 seat advantage in the House and a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate, though neither of those are yet as likely as an electoral college win for Obama.

The Obama campaign knows the numbers, but they know--and have always known--the numbers that count are the voted that are counted. So the ground game is amping up, Obama is campaigning in early voting states, even as the ads increase every week. And the campaign is reportedly going to announce today some voter protection initiatives to make sure registered voters get to vote, and their votes get counted.

I thought I was beyond shock, but the complete news blackout on the official conclusion of the Alaska legislature that Gov. Sarah Palin has unlawfully abused her power is simply mind-boggling. What would be happening if the shoe were on the other foot is the subject of this diary at Kos, which is also the source of this illustration.

Two Fears and Three Pretty Big Embraces

John McCain may have tried to dial back the rhetoric yesterday, but the controversy over it continued, and is likely to be part of the Sunday talk show dialogue. For the fear that McCain and Palin have whipped up, and the fear and hate demonstrated at their rallies, has touched off public talk about another fear: of violence directed as supporters of Obama, and most specifically against Obama himself.

Rep. John Lewis was the most noted voice on the subject Saturday, prompting denials from McCain and partial agreement from the Obama campaign, which doesn't believe that race is otherwise going to be much of a factor in the actual election. While Lewis raised the historical spector of a church bombing and George Wallace's rhetoric, in his Sunday column Frank Rich sticks with the history of the McCain-Palin campaign and where it might be leading. He chronicles the escalating rhetoric, from the Republican convention through last week, culminating in just how the Bill Ayers association was played: "That’s a far cry from simply accusing Obama of being a guilty-by-association radical leftist. Obama is being branded as a potential killer and an accessory to past attempts at murder. “Barack Obama’s friend tried to kill my family” was how a McCain press release last week packaged the remembrance of a Weather Underground incident from 1970 — when Obama was 8."

Update: Here's another narrative on this subject by Time's Michael Scherer, who predicts "This election is going to end ugly."

It all clearly plays into the "he's a Muslin" Barack Hussein Obama mantras, which are often rationalizations for racism and hate. All of this is not exactly coming as news to African Americans whose names aren't John Lewis. It was fear for Obama's life that caused a lot to hang back from supporting him, along with their skepticism that a black man could ever be elected. Now that the primaries and the polls have produced some hope about the latter, the former is still on their minds.

For instance, at the very start of a Philadelphia Inquirer story about Obama's four campaign appearances in largely black areas of Philadelphia on Saturday: Helen Henderson, 82 years old and African American, sat in the sunshine at 52d and Locust Streets yesterday, waiting for Barack Obama to arrive. She said she felt excited, honored and blessed. "I never thought I'd live to see a black man in the White House," said the retired nurse, who lives in University City. "I sent him a small contribution in the mail. I owe it to him because he's taking a chance for us. I pray for him."

But Obama had big crowds everywhere he went in Philadelphia Saturday, while Sarah Palin (also in Philly) was getting loudly booed at a Flyers hockey game.
So just as there is conviction in the Obama campaign that in the end it will all turn out well, there is hope as well as fear in those with historical consciousness. The Inquirer story ends with another point of view: " At Vernon Park, David Wilcots, 46, an environmental engineer, contemplated the prospect of an Obama victory, which he and other African Americans now believe is a probability. On the one hand, Wilcots said, the venom expressed by the crowds at Republican rallies last week makes him fear for Obama's safety. On the other, he marvels at what might transpire on Nov. 4. "It wouldn't resolve everything in race relations, but it would mean we'd reached a milestone in this country thought to be impossible a few short years ago," he said. "America would be embracing as president a black person, a person of mixed-race background, and a person one generation removed from Africa. Those are three pretty big embraces."

The only even theoretical road to victory for McCain is a big national change. Where exactly he campaigns makes little difference. But with a double digit national lead, Barack Obama can afford to talk globally and campaign locally. For the past few days he's been in Ohio, with a few big rallies but mostly in smaller places, where he doesn't necessarily get national media, but lots and lots of local media. This Times blog item tells the story. The photo is from the NYTimes, too.

Fatal Friday

Reviewing the day's polls, Nate Silver wrote: "With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive."

As it would turn out, this would be the high point of the day for the McCain campaign.

(I have to flag Nate's use of the word "presently" to mean "currently." Then again, about the only person I know who uses the word correctly is Keith Olbermann, who uses it to mean "coming up soon.")

Later the Newsweek poll came out, with Obama ahead 52% to 41%. Lawrence O'Donnell would presently point out that 41% is about as low as you can go in a national poll as long as you have an R or a D after your name.

Then again, Obama was up 52% to 40% in the Research 2000 daily tracker. He
was 51-41 in Gallup tracking and 50-45 in Rasmussen.

Through the day, McCain faced mounting criticism--from officials within his own party. A congressional supporter called the campaign out for their inflammatory rhetoric. The Republican governor of Michigan said: "He is not the McCain I endorsed," said Milliken, reached at his Traverse City home Thursday. "He keeps saying, 'Who is Barack Obama?' I would ask the question, 'Who is John McCain?' because his campaign has become rather disappointing to me." A poll of Republican insiders showed that 80% of them believe Obama will win.

Then McCain attempted to pivot slightly from the recent attacks he and Palin have been making to propose something economical: a fairly arcane but decent sounding proposal concerning seniors and their retirement accounts, which quickly turned out to be pretty useless--apparently of benefit mostly to people 100 years old.

But as McCain's supporters continued to express their racism and wing-nuttery at his rallies, McCain was forced--no fewer than three times--to caution them to be respectful, that they don't have to be afraid of Obama as President of the United States, and that he is a decent family man. At at least one point while he was saying this, he was booed. On Rachel, Ana Marie Cox of Time, who is traveling with the McCain campaign, said that while there are always some crazies at rallies, she was finding that McCain's rallies are now totally comprised of "wing-nuts."

Then while the evening cable shows were digesting these events, the Troopergate report finally was released. A committee of 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats in the Alaska legislature unanimously voted to release it, and it found Governor Palin guilty of abuse of power under state law. The best quick summary of its findings I've seen is Michael Scherer's here.

It happened that Lawrence O'Donnell was already being interviewed on Keith (Keithless Keith tonight, David Schuster hosting), and had already said of the increasing pressure on McCain to denounce the violent responses of his crowds, and the subsequent undercutting of his own stealth point in affirming that noone needs to be afraid of Obama as President, that sometimes campaigns box themselves in so that they have no good options, and the McCain campaign has done just this.

There are a lot of pundits out there, but O'Donnell is one I listen to, because he is informed, very savvy and has a point of view different from the others. Of course I don't always agree--but he's been dead right on this sequence of events.

After a few minutes during which he evidently speed-read the report, O'Donnell returned with the idea that this undercut and even destroyed Palin's credibility to attack Obama, to differentiate herself and McCain as the clean candidates who wouldn't be business as usual in Washington. She was becoming a drag on the ticket, as her approval ratings went straight down, he said, and now she really is a liability. And the report has come out at the worst possible time for the Republican ticket.

I think it was O'Donnell who pointed out that this possibility was known at the time McCain chose her--the investigation was already underway. Indeed, I was among those who discounted her as a possible candidate because of this investigation. But McCain chose her anyway, he rolled the dice, and he lost.

So what's the good news for the McCain campaign? It's Friday, and McCain usually takes the weekend off.

(On the other hand, there is this pretty amazing rumor.)

Playing With Hate

We're hours away from the investigator's report on whether Governor Palin abused her power. Judging from the preemptive claims that came from the McCain campaign, they expect the report to be damning.

Probably not so damning as the extent of the Palins entanglement with Rabid Rightists in Alaska (as well as secessionists of the South) that make our worst seem like bunny rabbits in comparison. Or VP candidate Palin's own Fascistic rhetoric, and the loud shout-outs of racism infecting the McCain campaign from top to bottom that even the major media is noting.

Race is the topic of the day it seems, and whether Obama has a ceiling to his support, whether the Bradley effect is still real or relevant, or even if race is a factor in just one direction.

Racism works especially well when the rich and powerful are able to use it to divide the middle class and poor people, and divert them from blaming the real culprits causing their plight--namely the rich and powerful. That could be happening in this economic crisis, but it probably hasn't had time to build that way just yet. And it may not at all this time. People are looking at Wall Street first, and the subtext of blaming this all on people of color who got houses they couldn't pay for hasn't caught on as the main explanation.

But the Republicans are still trying, especially those local pols who are trying to position Obama as a street thug. Unfortunately for them, except in a few isolated pockets (and even they have television), white people are experienced enough with the variety of non-white individuals and families to differentiate (as opposed to discriminate).

Still, it is a time for vigilance, and all racism must be pointed out and condemned. Even if it continues, such vigilance may encourage a purging of this poison from the body politic.

This racism and other will go on at some level for the rest of the campaign, peaking on election day in mail boxes stuffed with hatred (and that New Yorker cover.) Whether McCain and Palin themselves can keep doing this is still an open question. Some pundits believe they have nothing else, and expect to see it in the debate Wednesday. But one, Lawrence O'Donnell maintains that it is polling so badly that McCain will give it up by the time of the debate.

Maybe so. O'Donnell says McCain is too impatient to stay with it, and that may be so. But his violent and abusive temper, revealed in this incident of screaming at a woman at a Vegas craps table, is not only a disqualification for the presidency, it could yet mean more incitement to violence.

Update: TPM notes that Obama has recognized the McCain-Palin rallys at which "It's easy to rile up a crowd by stoking anger and division." First Read quotes this and the McCain response, accusing Obama of trying to silence ordinary Americans. So I guess that makes them official Fascists. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll asked about the Ayers attacks and found that people aren't interested.

Game, Set... Match?

Barack Obama won the debate, and John McCain lost it. And America is getting used to the idea of President Obama.

Obama's victory was the clear verdict in the polls, the focus groups, the pundits--even more clearly than the first debate. The numbers do prove out my suspicion that voters have already made up their minds, but I do think this debate wasn't irrelevant. Obama looked and talked like the President, especially the President we need now. McCain looked and talked like another nightmare.

My first (pleasant) surprise came early, when Obama was the first to jump on corporate greed and today's AIG testimony. Completely took it away from McCain, who harped on the topic in the first debate.

As I foresaw, Obama was very comfortable with the so-called Town Hall format, and performed much better than the aimlessly wandering McCain. Although either the camera placement or the format or the TV director couldn't keep up with the candidates, and visually much of the debate was looking at the backs of heads and people walking out of frame. It was dizzying at times, and I wouldn't be surprised if people tuned out.

Pundits noted that Obama tied McCain to Bush early and often, but he also related all of his answers to people's lives--very important. I expected that, and he did it even better than at the first debate. And get this: when McCain didn't mention the "middle class" once in the first debate, Team Obama made a campaign ad pointing it out. So what did McCain do this time? He didn't say the words "middle class"again---not even once.

Obama was particularly strong on health care (Brokaw threw it up there--is health care a right, a privilege or a responsibility? McCain whiffed with responsibility, Obama homered with health care is a right), on taxes, on the moral imperative to stop genocide but our lack of standing to lead in the world because of Iraq and Bush diplomacy, on the Climate Crisis as the most significant crisis of our time, and on the call to service.

I'm not entirely sure if McCain is on board with his campaign's "racially tinged" negative blather that's been inciting crowds, but he sure looks racist: he suggested that a black questioner probably hadn't ever heard of Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, he pointed to Obama and said "that one," and after the debate, he left Obama's outstretched hand dangling.

The internals of the polls and the questions with the focus groups show that voters are getting more comfortable with Obama, none more dramatically than this focus group, according to Amy Sullivan of TIME: Even more dramatic was the shift in the voters’ personal reactions to the two candidates. Before the debate, McCain had a 48/46 favorability rating; that improved to 56/36 by the end. But that’s about where Obama started the evening—54/36. After an hour and a half, Obama’s favorability numbers were 80/14. As Joe Biden would say, let me repeat that: 80% of the undecided voters had favorable views of Obama and only 14% saw him negatively for a net rating of +66. Not even Bill Clinton got such a warm response in town hall formats."

Nate Silver concluded: " I apologize if I sound like a broken record. But once again, Obama won the debate according to essentially every objective metric. And recall that, even if the debate were a tie, this would not have helped John McCain; he needed a clear win tonight. Instead, he's continued to dig himself into a deeper electoral hole."

That pretty much says it all.

But we can begin to see what's happening in the bigger picture as well as the constructive outcome in this suggestion by E.J. Dionne: " McCain kept highlighting the conservative past with his reverent references to Ronald Reagan. But at the moment, the conservative past is on trial. It represents the era Obama unmistakably wants to end. " We are clearly at the end of something. How fortunate we are that in Obama we have a capable leader with the ideas and ability to take us to the beginning of something new.

By the way, others are observing what I predicted for this debate: that in the town hall format, McCain did not (because he could not) go negative in the same terms as Palin and he have on the stump in the past few days. But this is not the last debate. I fully expect McCain himself to go completely negative in the most strident way next Wednesday in the final debate.

Final pre-debate thoughts

I look for McCain to run strong against corporate greed. The AIG hearing today gives him the perfect hook. I look for Barack to hone in on middle class concerns, but he may also have to get a bit technical about the financial markets. He knows more about them, and is trusted more on that issue. I also expect him to pivot to health care whenever possible, and that's where we might have fireworks.

More Numbers and Debate Prep

Today, Nate Silver sez: As the political world's focus shifts to the second presidential debate in Nashville, Barack Obama continues to expand his lead upon John McCain in all of our projection metrics, and now rates as almost a 9:1 favorte to win the election in November.

Both state and national polls are contributing to this result... Obama also gets a monster number from SurveyUSA in Pennsylvania, which has him leading by 15 points, up from a 6-point lead two weeks ago. SurveyUSA polls can be a bit volatile, but with that said, we now have multiple polls (Quinnipiac, Morning Call, West Chester/NPR) suggesting that Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. We also show Pennsylvania moving back ahead of Michigan, projecting an 8.7-point win for Obama there as opposed to 8.4 points in the Wolverine State. ..McCain needs a game changer. Or two. Or three. Tonight's debate, which features McCain's preferred town hall format, might be his best remaining opportunity.

Yesterday, Nate Silver sez: Are John McCain's negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama's support? They certainly aren't yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year...

The tracking poll numbers are pretty stable today, but it's the voter registration numbers beginning to come in that are potentially significant. Democrats are registering millions of new and switched voters. In PA, Republicans actually have lost significant numbers.

In Florida, this means that the Dems have about a quarter of a million net more voters this election than in 04. Ohio has registered a half million new voters, but there's no party affliliation breakdown, and it's the one state where early voting (which they did for the first time) doesn't appear to be meeting expectations. Of all the battleground states, Ohio appears the most troublesome. But Obama doesn't have to win Ohio if he wins Florida.

The buzz today, besides being about the economy, is about the campaigns going negative, and in the case of the McCain and Palin crowds yesterday, turning ugly and racist. In terms of the debate, Tom Brokaw apparently was not party to the agreement so he may be asking followup questions. He's been criticized recently for being biased towards McCain.

A quick fact check of McCain's most recent speech by the NY Times shows that it's full of inaccuracies and lies. Joe Klein notes that its "hyperbolic tone" isn't going to help settle down the stock market, and the fear that apparently is motivating a lot of the global nosedive. Will McCain say this stuff to Obama's face tonight? It's going to be fascinating. If McCain believes that going negative is his only chance, he'll be defeating himself as well as possibly tarnishing Obama. But if he maintains a positive tone, what does he actually have to propose, or say?

50%+ and Debate Prep

There's this belief among pols that once a candidate crosses the 50% threshhold, it means that the electorate is ready, and it will take a lot to defeat that candidate. After approaching it but hardly ever going over it for months, Barack Obama has been crossing that threshhold pretty regularly in the past week or two.

We saw it in the average of tracking polls yesterday, and he's been above 50% in a couple of them for days in a row. Now we're seeing it in state polls. A new PA poll, he's at 52% to 42. In the latest round of Rasmussen battlegrounds, he's at 50 or above in Florida (52%!), Missouri, Colorado and Virginia. In the Washington Post poll, he's at 51% in Ohio. In a Public Policy poll he's at 50% in North Carolina. Survey USA has him at 53% in New Hampshire and Virginia. And so on.

And while the NBC poll has him just under 50 at 49, the new CNN poll has him at 53% to 45.

It's that 50%+ as well as the leads themselves--and the consistency over polls and from state to state--that is beginning to convince the punditocracy that the electorate has made up its mind.

So it looks like Tuesday's debate is either McCain's last chance or too late anyway. It's a moderated Town Hall format, which is supposed to be McCain's strength but that seems to me to be one of those conventional crocks. McCain has had his worst moments in that format, he hasn't been spontaneous or effective in them for months, and the last thing he wants to do is to take questions from voters, since they are apt to be about the economy, etc.

The rules: Tom Brokaw is the moderator, which may mean some McCain-friendly questions. Questions will come from three sources, though Brokaw essentially chooses them all: they come from him, from "uncommitted likely" voters in the room (who ask only the question they've been chosen to ask) and from the Internet. The questioners are supposed to be demographically "representative" as judged by the Gallup organization.

There are to be no follow-ups (not even by the moderator) and no direct interaction between the candidates. They can move around a bit, but only in designated areas (in their own town halls, both McCain and Obama tend to pace.) Nothing said in anything I've yet read about what the time limits are, and whether both candidates get a shot at every question.

It's going to be hard for McCain to go negative, and even harder for him not to look unresponsive to voters if he does. Independent and uncommitted voters hate negative stuff in debates. Despite media mumblers who long ago stopped actually looking at campaign video and listening to what the candidates say, Obama is very comfortable in this format, and he relates very well to voters. Above all, he really answers their questions.

What's going to be very interesting to me are the snap poll and focus group results. If they favor Obama by about the same margin as they favored him and Biden in the first two debates, that to me is very good evidence that voters have indeed made up their mind, and everything they see now is through that mindset. (I don't believe incidentally that the CNN focus group of uncommitted voters is made up of all uncommitted voters. Because as soon as they commit, they're off the island. They aren't on TV anymore.)

What can we expect then during the debate? McCain has to come with something new, something positive, and show some understanding of economic problems. Blaming it all on earmarks and gubment spending won't wash. Obama should have more to say about the financial crisis that's up to the minute--past the bailout vote and Blue Monday at the stock market. He's also likely to crank it up over McCain's positions on deregulation, health care, Medicare and Social Security. But my guess is that he'll wait for McCain to throw the first punch, or just make the first assertion that Obama can counter.

After the debate, Obama heads for Indiana and Ohio.

Gamble

The polls for Obama are not only great, they're getting better. Now the average of the four tracking polls has him above 50%, and 8 points ahead. Two state polls in Virginia show him ahead there, one by a substantial margin. And another poll has him ahead in North Carolina by 6 points.

Update: The NBC poll announced late today has Obama ahead by 6 points nationally, 49% to 43%. NBC has pretty consistently shown the race tighter than other polls have. This poll also found that Obama and Biden won their debates by a margin of 50-29.

But the wheels were turning at both campaigns over the weekend. For some weird reason, the McCainers actually announced that they were changing the subject from the economy and going after Obama. Maybe they didn't count on this, but Team Obama read these stories. So even as VP candidate Palin was starting the push by latching on to the NY Times story about Obama and Bill Ayers that conveniently ran that day (along with several anti-Palin screeds, which somehow she didn't mention), the Obama campaign was pushing back. Hard.

Obama zeroed in on the tactic on the stump. He described it as a smear campaign. There was a quick ad (the one just below this post.) Surrogates began fighting fire with fire--when Ayers came up, Paul Begala had the name of a shadowy McCain associate. Then the news trickled out that surrogates would be invoking the Keating Five. And then the big deal: the Obama campaign openly promoting a web site and 13 minute video (unveiled today) about McCain and the Keating Five. And here's the site. Today McCain himself went on the attack, in what's likely to be a preview of his part of the debate tomorrow.

Each of these strategies is a gamble that could help or hurt their campaigns. In responding quickly--and even pre-emptively--the Obama campaign tried to outflank McCain's new strategy. Palin's first attack got some bad reviews, including the AP analysis that it was "unsubstantiated and carried a racially tinged subtext that John McCain himself may come to regret." But cable news was repeating Palin's weekend attacks all morning.

For Obama, there's the risk of blunting his positive appeal with a negative counterattack against McCain, and turning off Independents, even as Democrats are cheered. There's of course also the risk of letting the attacks go unchallenged.

Since the attacks on Obama aren't new, do they have any actual force? Since the attacks on McCain are new--and in the case of the Keating Five, substantively related to the economic crisis reflected in a global market plunge today--do they have more force? Will McCain's objections even be listened to, or will they be discounted as desperate, and work against him?

Or have voters already made up their minds and it's all sound and fury signifying nothing? Since the VP debate did not cut into Obama's lead in the tracking polls at all, it is unlikely to stem the growing numbers in the state polls. McCain's debate performance tomorrow may be his last chance, or it may be too late.

There are also reports I pick up here and there of enormous enthusiasm for Obama across the country, especially among the campaign's well-organized volunteers. Today is the last day for new registration, so all their efforts will turn to early voting and election day.

Pre-emptive Strike

New Maps

The McCain campaign's latest pronouncements and a NY Times story together focus Sunday morning attention on the electoral map, as well as closing weeks strategies.

The Times story begins: The turmoil on Wall Street and the weakening economy are changing the contours of the presidential campaign map, giving new force to Senator Barack Obama’s ambitious strategy to make incursions into Republican territory, while leading Senator John McCain to scale back his efforts to capture Democratic states."

Update: The Washington Post chimes in with the same analysis. Its story begins: "The faltering economy has left Sen. John McCain on the political defensive, altering the landscape in many of the most important battleground states and providing a series of avenues for Sen. Barack Obama to claim the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House in November, according to political strategists in both parties."

On the Obama side, the Times notes he's going to be doing debate prep for Tuesday in North Carolina, which hasn't gone blue in a blue moon. The story indicates that Team Obama also sees Virginia, Florida and Nevada in play, as well as Colorado and New Mexico, and are looking to pick off a district in Nebraska (where electoral votes are by district.) Not mentioned but otherwise in play: Indiana and Ohio.

McCainites pulled out of Michigan, and now say they will focus on Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada and Minnesota. (What happened to Ohio and Florida? I assume they're still contesting those!) But at least one poll gives Obama a lead--sometimes a big lead--in all these states. Though one poll last week showed McCain slightly ahead in Minnesota, the Minneapolis Star Tribune poll gives Obama a 55% to 37% lead there.

Another local newspaper poll--this one a tracking poll--from the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College--in Pennsylvania gives Obama a 51% to 39% lead. This confirms a pretty substantial Obama lead in PA seen in other recent polls, with the economic troubles of the past few weeks as the catalyst again. The United Steelworkers president suggests that McCain may have to abandon PA as well (which seems real unlikely, but unless he's blowing smoke, it's an interesting POV.)

Later Sunday update: Another newspaper poll--the Columbus Dispatch--has Obama up by 7 points in Ohio.

Friday saw good numbers for Obama in Nevada and very good in New Hampshire, which was his only New England question mark. So at the moment, Obama is well ahead in blue states and in the battleground states McCainites are targeting, plus pretty close in Indiana, Ohio and a few other red states.

So what does McCain do? He changes the subject, as his campaign unwisely announced, away from the economy to Obama as scary outsider, pal of terrorists, etc. Unwisely, because the Obama campaign is pre-empting him not only by attacking McCain on economic issues but on his judgment. An ad set to air starting Monday will call McCain's leadership "erratic."

I know I shouldn't be thinking about election night yet, but I can't help it. When the eastern seaboard states report, the dominoes could start to fall. New England and New York should tumble first for Obama. If Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, make sure the champagne is cold, cause we're probably looking at a landslide. And even if he doesn't, if he wins Florida, pop it open. PA, start pouring it all over yourselves. McCain cannot win if he loses Florida and PA.

Messages from Gov. Palin (via Dave Letterman)

Palin Fails, McCain Still Sinking

I've only seen one tracking poll today, but it's impressive: Obama 52%, McCain 40%. (Research 2000.) Obama is up a point, on the first day that the VP debate figures significantly in the poll. Update: Obama is at 51-45 in Rasmussen, 50-42 Gallup and 48-41 Hotline. Writes Nate Silver: With the first set of tracking polls out to incorporate at least one full day of post-debate interviewing, there is no indication that John McCain and Sarah Palin have made progress in closing their gap with Barack Obama. In fact, Obama ticked upward in three of the four national tracking polls that published today, although he lost a point in Rasmussen. In addition, Ipsos/McClatchy has come out with a poll showing that the debate moved undecideds slightly toward the Obama ticket, confirming the results of most of the snap polling conducted on Thursday evening.

But the polls are in on the debate itself, and it's not even close. Not when the biggest spread is from Fox: Biden 61% Palin 39%. For Independents only, MediaCurves shows 67% for Biden.

Though the TV response was somewhat favorable to Palin, a good deal of the newspaper response now coming in is not.

Several media reports yesterday said that almost every cent the McCain campaign is spending on media is on negative ads. Several reports today said that the McCain-Palin campaign is gearing up to go even more negative, presumably into Rev. Wright territory. VP candidate Palin is already doing her pit bull stuff, calling Obama a friend of terrorists. It's worth noting that when she accused Obama-Biden of waving the white flag of surrender in Iraq, focus group response nosedived. When Biden said they would end the war, response soared.

In his analysis of why McCain dissed Michigan, Nate Silver points out that "McCain's problems ultimately stem back to the early summer, when his campaign decided to throw a ton of money into negative advertising rather than to build a robust field operation." They were able to cut into Obama's lead then, but it has more than rebounded since. And now the McCain campaign has less money (though with the RNC, it's still a pile) and little ground organization.

Where the race is probably close, as in Ohio (according to Al G's analysis), it's the ground game that can make the difference (and since Ohio is early-voting now, may be making that difference right now.) Where it is not so close, even a barrage of vicious ads probably can't shave enough off Obama's lead, especially if they are simply repeating and amplifying old charges.

Besides which, the Obama campaign is beginning its own barrage of provocative ads, very negative but on issues and policy positions, especially health care. It's the final fight to focus the rest of the campaign. Obama is just so well positioned right now. All the preparations when people were wringing their hands in previous weeks are starting to pay off. Hundreds of thousands of new and re-registered voters. Energized volunteers, with well-organized field offices. And money to stay flexible on response ads as well as to stay on the attack. Plus outside organizations like moveon.org willing and able to go where the official campaign can't.

Plus the next two debates, which means that until two weeks before the final voting, McCain will have to face Obama as Obama refutes charges and makes his own on the issues that voters are clearly focused on: the economy, health care and ending the war in Iraq.

And don't miss the Letterman excerpts above.

Why Don't McCain and Palin Respect the Law?


Jonathan Turley makes an excellent point. VP candidate Palin is the first candidate for national office ever to be campaigning while refusing to honor a lawful subpoena. Moreover, her husband--not even a state official of any kind--is also refusing a lawful subpoena. Yet the McCain campaign has nothing to say about this, and what's worse, neither does the media. Why isn't she asked about this? Why isn't this a major issue?

Palin Unchained

With a huge audience and (despite the first polls) a pundit consensus that she rehabilitated herself in the debate, Sarah Palin is losing no time in trying to advance her career.

She's on Fox (and will be on nowhere else this weekend, apparently) saying how she was "annoyed" by Katie Couric, and how she disagrees with the McCain campaign decision to leave Michigan.

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is busily trying to correct some of her errors on McCain's actual positions, such as on bankruptcy. And analysts are trying to figure out what she meant (if anything) about expanding powers of the vice-presidency.

Journalists digging into her statements have already found that she lied about her support as Governor of Alaska for divesting investments in the Sudan over Darfur--her administration killed that measure in Alaska.

Meanwhile, with the classic Friday afternoon document dump, her tax records were released and reporters are going over them. But perhaps the biggest event happened just before the debate, when a judge in Alaska refused the petition by Republicans to stop the investigation into Troopergate, which I hope they start calling Palingate.

Palin is acting as though she won the debate last night, but most tellingly, she is acting as she has at times in the past like the presidential candidate, the head of the ticket. This is classic overreach, political hubris, and it's going to be her downfall.

Even after the debate, majorities in the polls believe she is not qualified for even the VP. She's a George Bush persona with Dick Cheney ambitions. Barring the Alaska Supreme Court overturning the lower court decision, the next time she makes news may well be when the Palingate report comes out, no later than Oct. 16. And unfortunately for her and her boosters, the only person debating two more times for her side is John McCain.

And by the way, the idea that Palin quashed further TV satire is already history: a debate sketch is planned for Saturday Night Live this weekend.

What's Next: The Health Care Debate


I've said weeks ago that the Obama campaign would focus on health care issues for the final weeks before the election, and that appears to be happening now. This ad from the debate last night is out today. In places like Ohio, people losing health care is often the first effect families feel of this economy in trouble.

Meanwhile, Obama expanded his lead in two tracking polls, and maintained it in two others. In Gallup he is up one point and McCain down one point; in Hotline he is up one. He is at 51% in two of the polls, with an 11 point lead in Research 2000 for the second straight day.

The Beginning of the Endgames

With the VP debate done and if the House passes the financial rescue package today, the way is clear for the home stretch of this campaign. And if McCain doesn't rebound very soon, it could be a victory lap for Obama.

The VP debate is over with; I said what I had to say over at Dreaming Up Daily. The instant polls, the CNN focus group and most of the pundits, including some Republicans, said that Biden won the debate. I'll emphasize one point: the CNN instant poll in particular showed Biden winning over Palin by almost the same percentage that some polls show Obama over McCain. I wonder if that's a coincidence, or is this election essentially set in cement, and voters have chosen Obama.

Well, maybe a little more about the debate. I said here in my last post that the 90 minute format was going to work against Palin, and I was right. She got weaker as the debate went on, and she inserted her same talking points no matter what relevance they might have, and her syntax and sense began to collapse. Some commentators kept saying that Palin at least stopped the late night mockery. I wouldn't be so sure. She made some very strange statements in that debate.

And in that CNN poll, Palin changed few minds on whether she was qualified. Before it started, 54% thought she wasn't. When it was over, it was 53%.

Today, Friday, the VP debate will already be fading as the House takes up the rescue passage. If they actually pass it early in the day--some say the vote could be taken as early as noon--then maybe the VP debate talk last a little longer. But most of the talk moves on to the economy, and then the next presidential debate on Tuesday.

So here's my sense of things: if the poll numbers don't improve for McCain, even a little, through the weekend, then this race could be over. If they improve a little, we may be seeing some Republicans returning to the fold. But virtually no one among the pundits thought that Palin swayed many Independents or undecideds. That's borne out in both the CNN and CBS instant polls. Chuck Todd said this morning that the campaign is reaching a tipping point, and tonight he thought that Palin's performance didn't really change anything.

But if McCain does move up in the polls a few points, then with the VP debate and the financial rescue package out of the way, he has a final opportunity to get voter attention. If he doesn't, this thing could well be over before the third debate on Oct. 15.

The big political news of Thursday was McCain abandoning Michigan. If he concedes that state, then he has to win both Ohio and Florida, and keep the rest of the Bush states, including Virginia, Indiana and Missouri, and he has to pick off Wisconsin, Minnesota or the big prize, Pennsylvania. According to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Obama is at least 5 points ahead in enough states to be one electoral vote short of victory. So he has many more paths to victory than McCain does.

What we've been seeing on the campaign trail is both Obama and McCain spending time in states that McCain would be expected to win. In other words, Obama is playing offense, McCain defense. Obama is not neglected the blue battlegrounds, either: he was in Michigan Thursday (and apparently won't have to go back) and in PA Friday. But he's going into some red battlegrounds pretty late in the campaign.

McCain has to change the conversation somehow. His increasingly erratic behavior frankly doesn't inspire much confidence either in him, or in his ability to change the game. It may be too late anyway. We'll probably have a much better sense of that next week at this time.

Surprises and Debates

The polls today are surprising--not because they've reversed, but because McCain's slide continues. He lost a point in the Kos poll--down 51%-40%--and about the same in the other tracking polls.

But the bigger surprise is that the McCain campaign has pulled out of Michigan--no ads, no campaigning, nothing. It wasn't so long ago that Michigan looked like it might be the key to the election. Now McCain is forced to defend usually GOPer states like Virginia (where the McCain operation has beefed up) and Indiana. The big battleground now appears to be Pennsylvania, although some polls show Obama ahead there now about as much as in Michigan.

Today everyone is talking about the VP debate which begins in a few hours. The set-up I expected is in evidence here and there, as in Chuck Todd saying the campaign is at a tipping point, and this debate is the McCainers chance. With Palin's expectations so low, a declared win is likely.

But there are some counter-themes. One is that Palin has been pretty successful as a campaign debater, so expectations are a little higher. Another is that she's lost the confidence of so many voters---60% in one poll say she is unqualified--that glib attacks tonight may not help that much.

And yet another is that with the combination of history (VP debates haven't had much impact on presidential elections) and the news cycle (the drama of the House vote on the economic rescue plan tomorrow will wipe out the debate chatter) this debate doesn't matter all that much. For instance, this piece by Walter Shapiro in Salon.

But now that the debate is here, and it is likely to have a huge audience, let's look at the format. It is basically the same as the first debate, but with shorter periods of time for answers and responses. Yet it is plenty of time for Palin to get as utterly lost as she did in some of those interview answers. Here's my feeling about this: she will depend on zingers and attacks. But people are looking at her differently now. She's a VP candidate in a scary time. This isn't a debate for mayor of a town the size of a gym, or a state with the population of a medium sized city. This is the big stage. And as stupid as national politics often are, I don't think she's going to get away with being glib and clueless. Just the fact that she cannot construct an ad lib sentence is, over 90 minutes, going to sink her.

She may win the battle of the sound bites. She is not going to win the debate.

Wednesday's Polls

are sugar and spice. Obama holds his lead in the daily tracking polls, including that sweet 51-41 Research 2000/Daily Kos number. Time has him up 7 nationally, with 50%. Pew also has Obama up 7.

But it's the battleground state polls that are riveting. CNN's numbers are amazing: Obama 54% to 43% in Minnesota! Obama 53% McCain 44% in VIRGINIA! 51% to 47% in Florida! The same in Nevada!

It's not just the lead, not just the spread, it's being over 50% in all those states, plus at 49% in Missouri (just a 1 pt. lead there.) Anytime a candidate is over 50% this late is very, very good news.

Even better news: this is confirmed by Quinnipiac in their battleground polls released earlier in the day, showing Obama over 50% and up by 8 in Florida and Ohio, and 54% to 39% in PA. These numbers are so big and show such a swing that this poll looked like an outlyer. But CNN essentially confirms them, and now virtually all the new polls show Obama leading in Florida.

It's all good, though TPM quotes a major labor leader saying don't start celebrating yet--his polling shows these gains are still soft. Low info voters are still not sold on the new guy. First Read looks at some polling that shows new voters favor Obama by 2 to 1. The question as always is whether they will vote this time (the category includes lapsed as well as first time eligible voters). Early voting is probably going to help with this group. There are reports of Ohio State students marching to the polls in groups. It's a party!

Yeah, I'm ready to party. Why isn't the election today?

Update: While a TIME blogger warns that "polling five weeks out is never a sure predictor of final results," he also quotes Peter Brown of Quinnipiac: "Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency. There does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century."

And there are two more national polls: AP Obama 48-41, CBS Obama 50-41.

McCainiac Palinology

Monday's polls continued to show Obama gains, including three of the four tracking polls, with a lovely 51%-41% in the DKos poll. State polls also good again, with Obama in the lead in Florida for the first time in awhile. Though the Washington Post poll has settled down from the 9 point lead last week to 4 this week, Obama still is at 50%. (The Post poll apparently has sampled more GOPers and more whites this time.) This poll and the latest CNN suggest Obama's surge had less to do with the debate than the economy.

As wonderful as it would be to see this all continue, it's not a sure thing. McCain and Palin were hammered again today in the media, to the point that it's not worth repeating any of it. It's so consistent now that it's begging to hit bottom, and a new narrative to begin. That's how the media works. That's how the media thinks.

So despite all the Failin Palin news, we are absolutely primed for a turnaround Thursday. If Palin is perceived to do well--even with the expectations absurdly low--that may be enough to swing the narrative to an energized McCain-Palin resurgence, especially if they get an uptick in the polls. I'm not saying it will happen. But there's more than an even chance that, if Palin just has a few good zingers for the replays, it could. I don't think she will appear remotely qualified, and I do expect voters will reject her because of that, but the combination of what for her would be seen as a good debate performance with the media's need to change the story, could do it.

On the other hand, they are running out of opportunities. McCain had what is likely to be his best opportunity in the debate last Friday: the foreign policy/national security topic was his strength, and it was possibly his best debate performance. But he didn't walk away with it, and at least initially, Obama was seen as the winner. (If Obama wins it all, it will still be seen as a JFK-type turning point.)

The VP debate is probably the GOPer ticket's best opportunity if it can change the conversation for a week or so. If it doesn't result in some momentum for them, there are still two presidential debates left, but it will become increasingly difficult for McCain to pull away. He has to defeat Obama on Obama's turf--definitely in the third debate, but also in the second, because most of the questions at the "town hall" are likely to be about the economy. But McCain has his friendliest format, and friendliest debate moderator in Tom Brokaw. And Friday's debate didn't get as big an audience as predicted, apparently because it was on a Friday. The other debates won't be.

McCain also has to hope that once the "rescue" or "bailout" plan passes, he and Palin can change the emphasis from the economy to issues raising doubts about Obama. That's going to be difficult, not only because the economy is still going to be a hot topic, but because there are two debates in which Obama can impress, and parry attacks.

Still this isn't over, at least in terms of polls and campaign theatre--and who knows how many votes that's actually going to change. Right now you have to like Obama's chances, especially since he's surging just as early voting is beginning. It started in Ohio Monday. With the current momentum, the Obama ground game has the advantage: enthusiasm breeds synergy. There's a month left in the campaign, but really McCain/Palin have only about two weeks to change the dynamic. And their best shot to begin this is Thursday's VP debate. But if M-P can't stop Obama's momentum, they're looking at an electoral landslide loss.

Barney Frank on the Bailing Out Republicans

The Politics of Apocalypse

The numbers are preposterous: a $700 billion bail-out (a figure picked out of thin air, a Treasury official conceded, just because they wanted a really big number) is rejected by 2/3 of the House members of the President's own party, and the stock market tanks for the largest one day drop in history--over 777 points--losing $1.2 trillion in value.

The predictions are all over the place: Great Depression II by today (said McCain, who also took credit for victory before the bill was defeated), apocalypse by next week, a long recession just ahead, a long recession ahead anyway, no matter what they do, etc.

The politics of it all are almost as chaotic, but a little more in focus. As Richard Wolfe said on Keith, McCain hurt himself at least four ways by his own actions in just a few days. Or as Steven Hurst wrote for the AP, "Republican John McCain has maneuvered himself into a political dead end and has five weeks to find his way out." But as others said, this is disaster for McCain no matter how you look at it.

There was also talk about this as the death rattle of the Republicans, at least in 2008. Nate Silver was a bit more analytical--of the Republicans he wrote (the elipses are his, not mine):

Their worst-case scenario for them might have been ... what just happened this afternoon. Opposing the bailout had been a political freeroll before because it wasn't manifest to the public what the risks of a nay vote would be. But with the Dow having dropped 780 points today, the risks are now painfully obvious. What had looked to be a politically prudent position 24 hours ago now looks cavalier and reckless. And yet, the Republicans will still by and large will get blamed for putting us in this predicament in the first place. Plus, the failure of the bill is an embarrassment to John McCain..."

While some faulted Obama as well, Joe Klein was among those making these points:

I do blame McCain for his puerile histrionics and for dragging this issue--which should have been above partisanship--into presidential politics. Let's make no mistake about it: his various gimmicks had absolutely nothing to do with the substance of the issue. He doesn't know all that much about the substance of the issue. The gimmicks were a failed attempt to make it seem as if he had powers, and knowledge, he didn't have.

As for Barack Obama, his visceral aversion to showboating did him a service. He laid out four requirements for his support of the bill--requests he had, clearly, coordinated with the Democratic Leadership (and which McCain supported). He made the necessary calls to keep up with the negotiations (as McCain did). He made it clear, without ostentation or fuss, that he supported the compromise. Even today, after the bill failed, Obama warned against panic and advised the Congress to get back to work and, "Get it done."

This was, I believe, eminently rational behavior in a moment of crisis. Obama didn't pretend that he could, or should, do something that he couldn't do. He didn't lead, but then, he wasn't in a position to lead. (McCain's games were the opposite of leadership--they were an unnecessary distraction.) There may be times in the future--in the next few weeks, in fact--when events will call for Obama to be a far more forceful presence. We'll see whether he has it in him. But this wasn't the time for that. It was the time for a cool head, something McCain has yet to demonstrate."

Paul Krugman was among those who thought Obama should have done more, but he also had this to say: So what do we know about the readiness of the two men most likely to end up taking that call? Well, Barack Obama seems well informed and sensible about matters economic and financial. John McCain, on the other hand, scares me....The real revelation of the last few weeks, however, has been just how erratic Mr. McCain’s views on economics are. At any given moment, he seems to have very strong opinions — but a few days later, he goes off in a completely different direction.... The modern economy, it turns out, is a dangerous place — and it’s not the kind of danger you can deal with by talking tough and denouncing evildoers. Does Mr. McCain have the judgment and temperament to deal with that part of the job he seeks? "

And while the longer these economic fears are front and center, the better it is for Obama, that could turn unpredictably. My guess is that the Democrats and Obama are going to seize the initiative on a rescue plan. They'll still have the issue of the economy and how Bush ruined it.

Politically, Obama's surge in the polls continues, up to 51% in the Daily Kos poll, with a 9 point lead over McCain. State polls continue to show Obama gains, with at last some breathing room in PA. Tomorrow will be the first tracking polls with all data after the debate.

Apart from the titanic bail-out failure, the talk today was about Sarah Palin, as CBS continues to dribble out more video, and everyone was showing the part of the devastating Saturday Night Live sketch in which Tina Fey repeats one of Palin's responses word for word, getting lots of laughs. The assault on Palin's fitness for the VP continues, and there are stories about changes in her debate prep, including, apparently, less of it, since she's being trotted back out on the campaign trial.

But what is likely for the VP debate and for the McCain-Palin campaign in general is relentless attacking of Barack Obama. Palin will try to turn every question into an attack, quoting Joe Biden whenever possible. If she's effective, the pundits may not even notice she isn't answering any questions. This will cheer the rabid right base, and then she'll be sent out in attack dog mode. The hockey mom stuff is done and gone. We won't hear her talk about herself, or a substantive issue or a constructive idea for the rest of the campaign.

And there won't be much substance from McCain either, just attack. Their ads will try to amp up the negativity, if that's possible. As ugly as it was before, it's going to get uglier now. It's McCain-Palin's only chance. But people are listening to the Obama-Biden economic message. Excessive negativity in debates turns Independents and undecideds off. Plus this economic mess is unlikely to be under control by Thursday's debate, and Palin's qualifications will be seen in the light of the need for serious people to solve very serious problems.

As for other news of the day, there was some mention of the prosecutor appointed to deal with the Justice Department firing of U.S. attorneys for political reasons, but shockingly nothing about the NY Times story pinning what amounts to a McCain version of an organized crime syndicate feeding off the gambling industry. How could this story not be important? Even on the latest (but perhaps not last) Black Monday.

Obama in Virginia





"Change is what's in your heart and in your gut, and who you're fighting for." Talking heads like Chris Matthews should invest 26 minutes and hear what Barack Obama is saying in his campaign, and how people are responding. This fiery speech was held in the rain in Virginia a few days ago to a crowd approaching 30,000--a good part of it (as you'll see) in the rain.

Barack Hits 50%, McCain Mutiny II

In three of the four daily tracking polls that came out today--the first day that debate reaction is figured it (at a third), Obama is at 50%: an 8 point lead in Gallup, 7 in Research 2000, 6 in Rasmussen. He has a 5 point lead in the Hotline poll.

A couple of newer polls confirm that Obama won the debate. This one from the LA Times has this great internal: The difference is even more pronounced among debate watchers who were not firmly committed to a candidate: 44% said they believed Obama looked more presidential, whereas 16% gave McCain the advantage.

McCain Mutiny continued: Newsweek adding even more: The McCain campaign told reporters the fees were irrelevant because Davis "separated from his consulting firm … in 2006," according to the campaign's Web site, and he stopped drawing a salary from it. In fact, however, when Davis joined the campaign in January 2007, he asked that his $20,000-a-month salary be paid directly to Davis Manafort, two sources who asked not to be identified discussing internal campaign business told NEWSWEEK. Federal campaign records show the McCain campaign paid Davis Manafort $90,000 through July 2007, when a cash crunch prompted Davis and other top campaign officials to forgo their salaries and work as volunteers. Separately, another entity created and partly owned by Davis—an Internet firm called 3eDC, whose address was the same office building as Davis Manafort's—received payments from the McCain campaign for Web services, collecting $971,860 through March 2008.

One senior McCain adviser said the entire flap could have been avoided if the campaign had resisted attacking Barack Obama for his ties to two former Fannie Mae executives, which prompted the media to take a second look at Davis. "It was stupid," the adviser said. "A serious miscalculation and an amateurish move.

The AP does Palin: Though Sarah Palin depicts herself as a pit bull fighting good-old-boy politics, in her years as mayor she and her friends received special benefits more typical of small-town politics as usual, an Associated Press investigation shows."

Meanwhile, John McCain was supposed to do ABC's "This Week" this morning as a town hall meeting in Ohio with independent voters. But he cancelled the town hall--although without notifying a lot of the attendees, who showed up, went through security, only to be then told it was cancelled. McCain did an interview instead, which Obama partisans at least thought did not go well (this link has video.)

So to review, Frank Rich sums up the McCain-Palin week of disaster.

The McCain Mutiny

The McCain campaign got on the phone to say that the New York Times no longer does journalism. That was supposed to make them shrivel up and die. Since then, they've added to the significant story of how McCain's campaign manager has never stopped getting paid for influence peddling if not lobbying, with Newsweek nailing down even more damning details. Several Times columnists have called VP candidate Palin unqualified and said in no uncertain terms how this reflects badly on the guy who picked her.

Now in Sunday's Times a lengthy story about McCain himself and his long-time involvement with the gambling industry, not to mention with gambling itself. The story shows how, in true organized crime fashion, he and his lobbyist associates (including Rick Davis, his campaign manager) systematically took apart the gaming influence empire of Jack Abramoff, and picked up the pieces for themselves:

"But interviews and records show that lobbyists and political operatives in Mr. McCain’s inner circle played a behind-the-scenes role in bringing Mr. Abramoff’s misdeeds to Mr. McCain’s attention — and then cashed in on the resulting investigation. The senator’s longtime chief political strategist, for example, was paid $100,000 over four months as a consultant to one tribe caught up in the inquiry, records show. "

The overall conclusion: "Mr. McCain portrays himself as a Washington maverick unswayed by special interests, referring recently to lobbyists as “birds of prey.” Yet in his current campaign, more than 40 fund-raisers and top advisers have lobbied or worked for an array of gambling interests — including tribal and Las Vegas casinos, lottery companies and online poker purveyors."

"For much of his adult life, Mr. McCain has gambled as often as once a month, friends and associates said, traveling to Las Vegas for weekend betting marathons. Former senior campaign officials said they worried about Mr. McCain’s patronage of casinos, given the power he wields over the industry."

This story comes as the bank crisis suggests the relevance of McCain's history as a close associate of Charles Keating, who went to jail for his involvement in the Savings and Loan scandals, and as a member of the so-called Keating Five. The media has actually stayed away from this story (Rachel Maddow did a segment on it, as did CNN, though it may yet emerge, especially after this gambling story. Here's Jed Reports 90 second video about it.

Meanwhile, as one scandal for VP candidate Palin seems to recede, another emerges. The Washington Post reports on a possible violation of Alaska state law by Palin, shortly before McCain chose her for his VP candidate, involving her opposition to a state referendum also opposed by the mining industry but supported by environmentalists and fishermen. The referendum was then defeated, making it easier for mining development. The story says: "Mining interests have courted Palin since her inauguration. Northern Dynasty contributed to her inaugural fund, and other mining companies have offered gifts and paid travel expenses for Palin's husband to go on fact-finding trips."

How is the McCain Mutiny faring with the electorate? How convincing has the Obama campaign become?

The day after the debate, where did Obama go? To North Carolina, a state he is not supposed to win and has no business campaigning in to start the final month. Yet North Carolina is still in play, he got a big crowd and he's in playoff form. McCain has been forced to spend money in Indiana and Virginia. Obama is in Colorado again on Monday. These are not states that were in play in 2004. Democratic registration is way up all over the place. Obama continues to climb in the polls--and Sunday will be the first day that polling after the debate will figure into the tracking polls (it will be 1/3.) It will be very interesting to see where Obama campaigns from now on.

Palin's Got Next...Maybe

But there's trouble beyond the usual lower the expectations game. Her interview with Katie Couric, which finished last night but which was excerpted for days, has apparently inspired a new round of derision.

Yesterday I referenced the stunning dismissal by a conservative woman columnist. Also yesterday, withering evaluations from CNN's Jack Cafferty, who said that if Palin being a heartbeat from the presidency "doesn't scare the hell out of you, it should." Today, Palin's candidacy is dissed twice more.

In the New York Times. The "Domestic Disturbances" columnist Judith Warner, concludes: "Frankly, I’ve come to think, post-Kissinger, post-Katie-Couric, that Palin’s nomination isn’t just an insult to the women (and men) of America. It’s an act of cruelty toward her as well."

In Newsweek, world affairs columnist Fareed Zakaria begins: "Will someone please put Sarah Palin out of her agony? Is it too much to ask that she come to realize that she wants, in that wonderful phrase in American politics, "to spend more time with her family"? He concludes: "Can we now admit the obvious? Sarah Palin is utterly unqualified to be vice president...In these times, for John McCain to have chosen this person to be his running mate is fundamentally irresponsible. McCain says that he always puts country first. In this important case, it is simply not true."

Others set the pattern a bit earlier: On Thursday Carl Bernstein wrote in Huffpost:it is time to confront an awkward but profound question: whether in picking Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain has committed -- by his own professed standards of duty and honor -- a singularly unpatriotic act.

On Friday, another columnist in the NY Times, Bob Herbert wrote: "But Ms. Palin has given no indication yet that she is capable of handling the monumental responsibilities of the presidency if she were called upon to do so.
In fact, the opposite is the case.... The press has an obligation to hammer away at Ms. Palin’s qualifications. If it turns out that she has just had a few bad interviews because she was nervous or whatever, additional scrutiny will serve her well. If, on the other hand, it becomes clear that her performance, so far, is an accurate reflection of her qualifications, it would behoove John McCain and the Republican Party to put the country first — as Mr. McCain loves to say — and find a replacement for Ms. Palin on the ticket."

There's another tidbit making the rounds today, from TV talk show host Ed Shultz: Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin. The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as “disastrous.” One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, “What are we going to do?” The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is “clueless.”

Whether or not this is true (and the Obama campaign seems serious about taking Palin's debating skills seriously), Palin was conspicuous by her absense from the post-debate spin last night, whereas Joe Biden was everywhere. Palin reportedly watched the debate in a Philadelphia bar--with 300 chanting Obama supporters gathered outside.

Here's my current take: I don't think McCain will dump Palin before the debate, although with McCain you never know. He surely knows he needs something dramatic to change the momentum because Obama very likely got a big boost of it last night, and the daily tracking polls were already trending his way. He might make the big gamble with his base and dump her for Joe Leiberman. But I doubt it.

The more likely (if not most likely) scenario is that the McCain campaign will simply cancel the v.p. debate, saying that the media is so mean that Palin won't get a fair hearing.

Assuming the debate does happen however, I've changed my mind about something else. I was of the school that said the expectations for Palin are so low, she almost certainly will come out of her debate looking okay, if not declared the winner. I don't think that anymore. If Joe Biden simply talks the Obama-Biden line about the future, if he refers to her seldom but only as Governor Palin, and simply links her "views" to continuation of Bush policies, he'll be the clear winner.