Finality

When injured Klay Thompson was not in the lineup for the third game of the NBA finals, the Warriors needed a career game from Steph Curry and a return to All Star form by Boogie Cousins.  Curry had that career game offensively, scoring 47, but Cousins scored fewer than 10.

To win the fourth game with Thompson back in the lineup, the Warriors needed the Splash Brothers to excel, which they did, with a total of 55 points, but once again they needed a 20 point game from Cousins, which didn't come close to happening.  Nobody else contributed much, except Kevon Looney who was unexpectedly back from his injury.

This is no criticism of Cousins, just back from a long injury, but that's the math.  Those points were needed.  But in the end, those two games were decided by Toronto's superior play both on defense and offense.  On both sides of the ball they found a formula, and they did to Golden State what they did to Milwaukee in the Eastern finals.  Once they find the formula, they are relentless.  In game 4, the Warriors did well for the first half, but were overwhelmed in a disastrous third quarter.

Now they are down 3-1, and only one team has come back from that to win the championship, and no team has won it after losing their first two games at home. I believe the Warriors will play their hearts out in Toronto on Monday, if only to ensure a proper farewell to their Oakland fans in the last game to be played there--win or lose, the 6th game of the Finals.  But being held to 92 points does not bode well for winning game 5, nor did their evident exhaustion.

And that's with or without Kevin Durant.  As of this moment it seems doubtful he will play, as he hasn't had a successful practice.  But even if he does play, a dominant performance or even the 25 points (with the Splash Brothers adding another 50 or so) and a return to defensive form that might make the difference, none of that is likely.  (Although it must be said, that a great player's first game back from an injury is sometimes very good, and it is after that adrenalin is gone that the second game back is lackluster.)

If the Warriors lose on Monday, game four will have been the last game a Warriors team plays at Oracle Arena.  And that's not the only finality.  It is possible that this will end as it seemed it probably would: with a team of 5 All-Stars triumphing to win the championship.  But it is very unlikely.  What is likely is that this is the end of this particular team.  Cousins almost certainly won't be back, and Durant only slightly less certainly will go elsewhere.  Andre may well retire, as well as Shaun Livingston.  It is even possible that Klay Thompson will go elsewhere, though that's unlikely.  But who knows what effect losing (or winning) the championship will have.

All of this demonstrates just how hard it is to repeat as champions.  So much has contributed to the situation the Warriors are now in, including the loss of concentration evident during the season.  Two more victories would have given the Dubs home court, and a first game victory could have changed things.

But to win a championship even once requires the luck to avoid key injuries at key times to your team, while hitting your opponents.  The Warriors have battled through injuries, but they've been lucky with the timing of them--until now.

Teams that repeatedly win championships often come to a surprising end.  I think especially of the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, who after championship seasons thought they were going to be invulnerable by adding two All-Stars to the roster, Karl Malone and Gary Payton.  They blundered through, and might have turned the corner until Malone got hurt in the playoffs, and then it was like a house of cards.

At this point, winning this championship would elevate this Warriors team to all-time heroic status.  But even if they lose, their accomplishments have been historic.  And win or lose, it would be great to see the Golden State Warriors back playing with joy.

Game 2: Playing Like Champions (with Updates for 3)

Steph Curry was visibly ailing.  Andre went down hard.  Klay Thompson has a hamstring issue and leaves the game.  Kevon Looney's shoulder is injured and he goes out.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors played with the heart of a champion, and discovered their game with a 20-0 run in the second and third quarters.  A healthy Toronto Raptors team couldn't keep up.  They came close but the Warriors prevailed to take one of the first two road games, and for the moment take away home court, 109-104.

Before his injury, Klay Thompson was finally having a hot-shooting Klay game.  Curry had some treatment and began to find his game towards the end of the second quarter.  The Dubs started DeMarcus Cousins, and he got better as the game went on.  Draymond was aggressive, Andre was inspired--he took and hit the open 3 that iced the game, after the Dubs went dry for the last 5 minutes of the game. Quinn Cook hit three 3s, and every member of the bench contributed points except the injured Looney, and only two bench players didn't play.

This was not only a gutty win, it was the Warriors discovering how to beat Toronto.  They saw success with Cousins and Andrew Bogut, countering the Raptors' bigs. Cousins' 11 points is apt to grow.  Double and triple teams try to wear Curry down, but he usually wears them down to have big shots and big assists late in the game. The motion offense and transition defense work against Toronto as they did against Houston and Portland.

But a lot will depend on the injury report.  Thompson and Looney will undergo tests on Monday.  If they are ready to play on Wednesday, and Cousins doesn't have a physical setback, then the Warriors are in good shape.  It should soon be known whether KD will play.  At this moment it is possible the dream lineup--the five all-stars-- will be on the court together.  That doesn't guarantee victory, but it comes closer.

On the other hand, it's hard to see how the Warriors survive without Klay or KD or Andre.  But as Steph Curry said at his presser, Strength in Numbers isn't just a slogan--it's a program that begins in training camp.  And the heart of a champion extends to the whole Golden State Warriors roster.  

Update Mon.: Looney is out for the rest of the year with a shoulder fracture.  Klay Thompson is "questionable" for Wednesday, depending on how things go over the next two days.  No word yet on Andre or KD.

Update Tues: KD is out for Wednesday, Klay is still questionable, Andre is ailing but likely to play.  Consensus is building that this game is Toronto's big chance--if the Warriors win, it will be considered amazing.

Finals Game 1: Questions and Answers

Update: The Answers

Rest or rust?  For the Warriors: rust.  Defensive intensity suffered, especially in the first half, plus too many turnovers.  They stayed in the game but ultimately lost the first game of a Finals series for the first time, by nine points to a Toronto team at the top of its game.

How good is Toronto?  At their best, pretty damn good. The Unlikely Hero of this game for Toronto was Pascal Siakam, who picked a good night to have a career game, scoring 32 points on 14 of 17 shooting.  While offensively the Warriors weren't bad--Steph Curry scored 34, the bench added some points--Toronto as a team played better.

Boogie Cousins played six minutes, showed some signs, but didn't score.  KD didn't play, and almost certainly won't play in game 2 on Sunday.  Which, if not a must win for Golden State, is a necessary win to get control of the series.  Andre is playing hurt, and is not contributing much to the offense.  He is however expected to play Sunday.

I'm guessing here, but I expect Shaun Livingston to play more minutes in game 2, if he's able.  The Toronto defense is open to the kind of midrange shots that are his bread and butter.


Questions:

The NBA Finals Hype is on.  Early money on the Warriors has met counter-expertise favoring Toronto.  Someone claims Kevin Durant has played his last game as a Warrior; KD promptly flew to Toronto.  The first game is Thursday, the second is Sunday.

How good is Toronto?  After being manhandled for two and a half games by the Bucks, they found a defense that worked like a charm.  They won four straight.  Was it their team, or a weakness in the Bucks unique to them?

Can Golden State play as well as they did in their last five plus games?  The long, long layoff helps with healing, and with rust.  This is their fifth straight finals, and their first beginning on the road.  (They lost home court by a game.)

Klay Thompson sacrificed offense for defense in the Western Conference finals.  He may have to do it again.  Is Andre healthy enough to play his shutdown defense?  Can Draymond keep up his pace, and his career-best play?

These two teams both play like teams. They both can play great defense.   There may be unlikely heroes in each game.  The possible returns of Boogie Cousins and KD are big unknowns (although neither will in the first game.) If they do they probably won't play big minutes.  But they could be crucial minutes.

But the series likely comes down to Steph Curry.  Can he match and surpass his incredible run in the western conference series?  He's going to attract all the defensive attention from Toronto.  Can they stop him?  Can he stay hot?  And most of all, can he stay healthy?  None of this can be known until the games are played.

If Golden State wins the first game, they are in very good shape.  If they win one of the first two, they are in good shape.  All other things (all other ankles) being equal.

Historic

The Golden State Warriors swept the Portland Trailblazers in the western conference championship round to earn their fifth straight appearance in the NBA Finals, the first time any team has done that since the 1960s, when the Boston Celtics dominated the other dozen or so teams.

To win this game, Steph Curry and Draymond Green became the first teammates to achieve triple doubles in a playoff game.  Curry scored more than 35 points for the fifth game in a row. His average over the four games was the highest of any player ever in a four game sweep.  He had 7 three pointers in the overtime victory.

It was only a two point victory, so any of the bench players could have made the difference as well.  Alfonso McKinnie and Kevon Looney in particular played big in big moments, and kept up the defensive intensity in the fourth and overtime. Three Blazers players scored over 25 points; only Curry did for the Warriors.  It was a dazzling team effort.

Consider this was a Warriors team that started McKinnie and J. Bell on Monday night.  A defensive stand without the injured Andre seemed impossible to some.  But they got it done.  They won both games on the road, and their third in a row comeback from 17 points down in the second half.

This was an historic series for the Warriors, and an exciting one.  Now the Warriors have 9 days before their next game for their ailing players to heal. (Andre seems likely to be ready, Boogie Cousins might be; the big question mark is still KD.)  The Eastern series is 2-1 at the moment, so the winner will have played at least one more game than the Warriors needed to.  Neither Eastern contender has been to the Finals.

WCF Game 3 Questions and Answers

There is no question about KD and Boogie Cousins: they will not be playing in Portland; KD for one isn't making the trip.  So the questions for the third game are: will the Portland back court stars catch fire, as they are more than capable of doing, and will the Warriors shoot well enough to counter?  Or will they continue to be somewhat stifled by the Warrior defense?

The Warriors had a second game letdown for the first half, but came out burning in the third quarter, and won the last 5 minutes of the game.  Portland had a 15 point lead at halftime and an 8 point lead late in the fourth, but the Dubs owned the stretch.  Steph Curry was big for the entire game, and Klay hit the crucial shots in the fourth.  The rest was defense and team playmaking, and it was beautiful to watch.

The Blazers did so much right that Steve Kerr suggested they outplayed the Dubs.  In particular they shot a high percentage of threes--perhaps an unsustainably high percentage.  And they still lost.

The third game is pretty much a must win for Portland.  The likely path is for one of their stars to go wild and score 40 plus points.  If that happens, the return of KD begins to assume some urgency.

The Answers:

In the third game, the Golden State defense once again smothered the Portland back court, and while the rest of the team gave them a first half lead, the Warriors dismantled the Blazers defense in the second half.  Draymond Green, who had a triple double before the fourth quarter began, successfully pushed and ran the offense while Steph Curry attacked from everywhere on the court.  The result was an 11 point victory, and a 3-0 lead in the series.  Curry scored 36, with 6 threes.

Andre Iguodala left the game in the third quarter with a variously described "soreness" and will get an MRI Sunday.  So the question is the extent of his injury, for he is a key element.  The Warriors can't keep losing major players. Some of those looking ahead to the finals presumably against the Bucks believe Kevin Durant's return is necessary to victory.  Losing Andre would be potentially fatal as well.  But that's looking too far ahead now.  There's a game to play Monday.

WCF Game 1: Questions and Answers

Golden State got two pieces of bad news prior to the first game of the Western Conference Finals tonight.  First was their opponent: the Portland Trailblazers, who pose a bigger challenge than the Denver Nuggets.  The second was that Kevin Durant would not play the first game, and probably not the second on Thursday.  Boogie Cousins is also not close to returning, though he is able to run.

So what could have been all but a sure thing for a focused Warriors team now suggests questions.  Will there be a letdown from their 6th game victory against the Rockets?  Will the bench over-perform again, or revert to its season averages?  Can the Dubs match the energy that the Blazers are likely to bring? They are likely to make the defensive adjustments the Rockets failed to make. The first game is huge.

Update: The Answers

One question I forgot to ask: how will Portland's energy level be, after a game 7 in high-altitude Denver on Saturday?  The answer to that seems to have been: not that good.  Nor was the defensive preparation.

On the other hand, Golden State suffered no letdown in front of the home crowd, and their energy level was high.  The bench performed very well, adding to the lead at the start of the fourth quarter especially.  Steph Curry hit 9 three pointers, tying his personal playoff best, Klay played stellar defense and dropped 28 points.  The result: The Warriors win going away, 116-94.

But as Draymond Green said after the game, it only gets harder from here.  Portland gets to adjust its defense and can up its intensity in game 2 on Thursday, which is pretty close to a must-win for them, especially because KD may be back on the floor in Portland.  For Golden State, winning the first game was huge.

One for the Ages

It would be hard to overestimate the dimensions of the Golden State Warriors win over the Houston Rockets in the sixth game, taking the second round series 4-2.  It was a brilliant team effort with brilliant individual performances, including Steph Curry, who was scoreless and had 3 fouls in the first half, and scored 33 points in the second half, including 23 in the fourth quarter--his most points in a fourth quarter in his career--and 16 points in the last 4 minutes without a miss to end the game.  This in a closeout game, on the road, without one of the best players of all time in Kevin Durant.  Not to mention already without Boogie Cousins to force the Rockets into going big.

Instead it was Devon Looney who forced the Rockets into going big, with his rebounds and buckets in the paint, and so opening the floor for a hot Klay and a hot Andre from 3.  Curry battled a swarming defense and finally picked it apart, swooping to the basket or drilling impossible threes.  He did this still not fully healed from his dislocated finger, which he injured again in this game.

All the bullshit about Curry, about Klay and Draymond and the Warriors in general now fades.  Instead of facing a do or die seventh game, the team rests and waits to see who they play in the western conference final.  Steph is likely rooting for Portland and his brother Seth.  But probably every other Warrior is rooting for Denver, a less experienced team that the Dubs have buried in their last two meetings.  It is possible if not likely that Durant will be ready for that series.  And latest word is that Boogie Cousins might be, too.

The Warriors won also because every one of the bench players came through, not just because they collectively doubled their highest point total of the season, but because they played the Warriors game, were tenacious on defense and within the system on offense.  Coach Kerr said after the game that maybe he should have played them more in the series.

Speaking of Kerr and the coaching staff, I erred in saying neither team had a coaching advantage in terms of in-game adjustments.  At halftime, the Dubs made at least two crucial adjustments.  One was either equipment or Curry's own experiments, but somehow Curry found a way to deal with his injured finger.  The other was an offensive adjustment by the coaching staff that confused Rockets defenders, giving Curry shots near the basket and in the paint, in addition to his threes.  The Warriors always had the better offensive system.  But Coach Kerr, his staff and his players made crucial adjustments to win the second half and especially the fourth quarter.

I wrote that the Warriors had their best shot at the Rockets in the sixth game, partly because the Rockets might be assuming this game and anticipating the seventh game.  Now the Warriors must avoid a similar temptation: to look beyond the next series to the championship finals.  They must know now what they risk by extending a series with less than championship play.

After the fifth game, the chatter was mostly about KD going down, overlooking a heroic fourth quarter for Steph Curry and the Warriors team.  After the sixth game, there's little else to talk about (although Houston may face a coaching change.)  In playoff history, this game was indeed one for the ages.

One More for the Ages

The injury of Kevin Durant could hardly have come at a worse time for the Golden State Warriors.  He will not play the remainder of the Rockets series, which resumes in Houston Friday with the Dubs needing one more win to advance to the third round.

Durant has been having record-setting playoff production, and his loss subtracts a minimum of 20 points to as many as 50 points a game from the Warrior attack.  He is indefensible, especially by the Rockets, and his defense is also important.

I doubt there is precedent for an NBA team to lose two starters and still win a championship.  But if any team can do it, it is the Golden State Warriors.  I'll go against conventional wisdom and suggest that their best chance of winning the series is the next game in Houston.  It will be difficult for the Rockets not to be looking beyond that game at a seventh game showdown in Oakland.  It will be an opportunity for the Dubs to show Houston what it is not prepared for.

The Warriors can make NBA history.  Or they can close out their time at Oracle Arena with a bittersweet and season-ending evening.

Two More

4th Game Update: The good news is that Steph Curry had a more effective game, scoring 30, while Kevin Durant continued his torrid pace with 34.  The Warriors were even or ahead in key stats, except 3-pointers (Curry was still way off ), and it was two 3-point misses in the last seconds that sealed the game for Houston.  Which of course is the bad news.

Questions going into the fifth game on Wednesday are Iggie's actual health (he's listed as probable) and what's up with Klay Thompson.  I expect the Warriors will call some plays for him early, and if he starts hitting it may be what the team needs.  

So we're back to the classic pivotal fifth game, as Houston-Golden State start to look like the Lakers-Kings of old. The Warriors can retain home court and take control by winning. Tuesday's fifth games were blowouts.  The Warriors at home are always a possibility.  So at the moment it's still "two more," but now that applies to both teams.


3rd Game Update: It's clear now who had the more significant injury in the second game of this series: in the third game, James Harden had his best performance, while Steph Curry had one of the worst games of his career.  The embarrassing blown point-blank shots in overtime suggest that his left hand is unreliable, and his ankle may also be affecting the timing of his shots, and whether his legs are under him when he shoots. 

Klay Thompson also had a mediocre game, though he made timely shots down the stretch.  Yet the continued superior play of Kevin Durant and Andre Igoudala, and Draymond Green's timely shooting, sent this game into overtime and kept it close until the final moments, and Houston came away with a win at home.

Ordinarily Curry follows a subpar game with a superior one, but when injuries are involved, that possibility remains a question, and will until Monday's fourth game of the series, also in Houston. 


The Golden State Warriors won both games at home to take a 2-0 lead into Houston for the next two games of the second round Western Conference playoffs.  Despite the victory, the first game was (according to observers) almost a parody of an NBA game.  But the second game was one of the best of the year, especially for the Warriors.

They discovered the formula to dominate the Rockets: tenacious defense, the five Death Lineup starters all scored at least 15 points, and the Warriors got 14 more possessions than the Rockets.

The most obvious stand-outs of the first two games were Kevin Durant, who so far is having an historic playoff run, and Draymond Green, who is making a difference on defense and offense.

The second game saw injuries to each team's star player: James Harden suffered injuries to both eyes that affected his vision, and Steph Curry suffered a dislocated finger that affected his shot, especially 3s.  Nevertheless, Harden shot phenomenally well after the injury, and Curry hit a couple of important 3s late in the game.

Both teams have 3 days off before play resumes on Saturday.  Both Harden and Curry likely benefit from the rest.  Both expect to play.  Curry practiced as usual on Thursday.  No one can know, of course, how their play will be affected.

The Warriors have won two games with a balanced attack.  Notably none of their stars has yet gone off for a big scoring game.  It's unlikely that Curry will, with his injury and his continuing foul trouble, but Klay Thompson is due, and he responds especially well to days of rest.

That the Warriors won with a balanced attack causes continuing problems for the Rockets defense.  On offense I expect the Rockets will look to mimic that balanced attack more in game 3, especially with Harden not 100%.  Most experts and the oddsmakers are expecting the Rockets to win this game.  However the Dubs this year have been especially locked in on the road.

 But the effect of a long layoff is a big question.  No doubt the Rockets will be playing with desperation.  The Warriors will have to match that intensity.  This series is not even remotely over, although needing two more wins is better that needing four.

For the Roses

Update 4/27: As noted below, both Curry and Thompson are banged up with ankle injuries, and today Coach Kerr called them questionable for Sunday.  Ankle injuries can linger, especially if players play through them--Curry in particular but also Thompson can be hampered significantly by these minor injuries that affect shots, quickness, etc.  If Golden State loses this series, their failure to come out strong in game 5 of the first round will be the reason.  That meant another game, in which both of these players sustained injuries, plus it meant they lose a day to recover before the series begins.


The conventional wisdom at this point is that this year's NBA championship could very well be decided by the western conference second round match-up of Golden State and Houston.   Most experts still give the Warriors the edge but there are doubts.

That's because the Warriors seem intent on making it harder for themselves.  They blew a 31 point lead in the second game with the Clippers, while Houston won the first three against Utah, making it likely that they would get a few days extra rest.  But this past Wednesday, opportunity knocked on the Golden State door when Utah suppressed Houston long enough to win game 4 (and promptly lost game 5.)  So all the Warriors had to do was win game 5 at home, and the Houston advantage in rest would be wiped out.

So like true champions did they take advantage of every little advantage?  Not exactly.  They lost to the Clippers again at home.  Just like that, Houston regained its extra rest, even though the Warriors bested the Clips by 19 points in game 6 in LA to take the series. KD scored 50 and Draymond Green excelled on both sides. Once again Steph came out flat, ending up with 24 points.

Now the Warriors start the second round on short rest and with both Steph Curry and Thompson looking banged-up after the game--the real risk run when a team fails to close out a series.  No word immediately on whether they'll be able to start on Sunday.  The only good news for the team's health is that Draymond Green's wounded hand didn't hamper his shot tonight.

Granted that the Clippers exceeded everybody's expectations, marking them as a young team with a future.  If they get a star in the off-season they will be truly formidable.  But the Warriors showed vulnerabilities that could hurt them against Houston--lack of defense, lack of clutch scoring, and above all, lack of urgency.  It became a question of how much they want the championship, for it is clear that Houston is hungry.

This is a series than could easily go the full seven.  Some experts see Houston as weaker than last year, but then, without Cousins, so are the Dubs.  A lot could depend on how each team's bench plays.  Coaching is probably a wash, as neither side is all that good at adjusting during the game.  (The Clippers had the edge in coaching in round one.)  Momentum favors Houston, and if you count Cousins, so does health.

Did the Dubs learn enough in round one?  That KD can score 45 and Steph 25, but if they don't defend they can still lose?  They have to hope that two of their big scorers (KD, Curry, Thompson) have big nights each game, and either Draymond or Iguadala, and one or another of the bench players come through on offense, and everybody plays tenacious defense. The Dubs missed Cousin's potential scoring firepower against the Clippers, and they might miss it a lot this round.

The Warriors can defend, but Houston's defense has improved down the stretch.  On any given night Houston can score a ton of points.  It's not going to be easy for the Dubs to win this series, and if they aren't serious from the opening tip-off to the end, they could actually find themselves with a short one that has a bad outcome.

Golden State's habit of losing at home makes the old "win the first and second, win the fifth" formula obsolete, and even a 3-1 lead is no longer even a leading indicator for either team.  This is likely to be a series in which the outcome is never predictable until there is nothing left to predict, because one of the teams has won four games.

Playoffs Become Real

On the first day of the 2019 NBA playoffs, only the Golden State Warriors escaped "Upset Saturday."  Their margin of victory was larger than their game warranted however.  In their second game against the LA Clippers, they managed to lose a 31 point lead in the third quarter, and lose the game in the biggest comeback in playoff history.

That was not the full extent of their misery.  They also lost Boogie Cousins to a season ending injury.  Their second half showcased serious flaws--undisciplined players, turnovers, and worst of all, panic.  All the most frustrating aspects of this year's Warriors were on view: their postgame analyses are always accurate, they spot the flaws in their game, and then fail to correct them.  Kevin Durant sounds like he has his head in the game, yet he followed a two technical and ejection night with fouling out early enough in the fourth quarter not to be on the court when the game suddenly got serious.  That doesn't sound like an elite player with his head in the game.  Both Splash Brothers had shots that might have won the game that didn't fall in the last seconds.

All that said, I recall that the championship Bull and Lakers had inexplicable playoff failures like this in their multi-ring runs.  And when play resumes in LA, the Clippers have about zero chance of winning game three.  (Of course, at the start of the third quarter of the second game, the Dubs chances to win were posted at 99.9.)

But the biggest test of the playoffs for the Warriors will come soon after.  They are very likely to meet the Rockets in the second round.  If Houston continues to dominate Utah, they will be the more rested team, and nobody wants to face a rested James Harden.  The Rockets have been playing at a higher level, and right now they are the healthier team.  Whether the Warriors are an actual team anymore, rather than a collection of high performance players, is a question opened to doubt by the first two playoff games.  And this most recent game suggests that home court advantage ain't what it used to be for the Warriors.

So suddenly the playoffs are real.  The Warriors are not confidently coasting to a championship.  However, if this was going to happen, it was going to happen in the playoff's second game, and it's best that it did.  The playoffs in general are about health and momentum.  Houston has both of those now, the Warriors don't.  Playoff games are about establishing a rhythm early and maintaining it for the entire game.  The Warriors used to know how to do that.  They'll need to relearn it and enact it for every game of the playoffs.

 

Champs, Part One

Steph Curry for the Warriors' last regular season game at Oracle;
the team wore throwback uniforms from the "We Believe" era.

On Sunday in the last regular season game ever in Oracle Arena, the Golden State Warriors beat the LA Clippers to clinch the Western Conference championship, and home court advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

The Dubs led at the half but put the game away with an astounding 42-18 third quarter, leading to the 131-104 victory.  Steph Curry followed his 40 point game with 27.

But with only three days left in the regular season, only two things are certain for the Warriors: they will have home court advantage throughout the western conference playoffs, but not the finals, if Milwaukee is their opponent.  Otherwise, almost everything is still to be determined.

The western conference teams are set, but there are battles for seeding, principally at the top and at the bottom. At the bottom, the Spurs and Clips have identical records, with OKC having the same number of wins but down one in the loss column.  At the top, the Nuggets and Rockets have both won 53 games, with the Nuggets up one in the losses.  But Portland is close enough to move up.  In fact, the whole seeding after Golden State could change by the end of the season this week.

Things are a little more stable in the East, though the eighth position is still up for grabs. Detroit, Charlotte and Miami all have a mathematical chance.  Brooklyn and Orlando are in, but have identical records, so the seeding at the bottom is still open.

Coach Kerr will rest his top 8 players in the two remaining games (four each game), both on the road.  The only drawback to losing these games is losing the possibility of home court over Toronto, if that's the finals match-up.

There isn't much doubt that the greatest challenge to the Dubs in the West is once again the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets are peaking at just the right time, as are the Warriors.  Both teams are healthy going into the playoffs.  I haven't followed the Rockets to know if any other western team poses a significant challenge to them, but the Warriors know how to beat their other possible conference opponents.

Even though the absence of Lebron seems to make the finals easier, the eastern field is actually stronger this year.  Any of the top four teams is capable of winning games against the Warriors, and since they don't play each other much, there is an element of unpredictability.  Generally the West is still stronger, but it's not the clear western dominance this year as it has been in recent years.  

Stretch Run

The Golden State Warriors have an even dozen games left to play in the regular season: seven at home, five away.  Though many of their opponents aren't playoff bound, the Dubs have been prone to relax too much with less capable teams, and there are a few opponents that have given them legitimate trouble.  But winning out is not at all impossible.

At the moment they are holding on to the top position in the West, but Denver is right with them.  However, the Nuggets have 13 games left, 8 of them on the road--and they are not a good road team.  The Dubs host them on April 2.

Coach Kerr is signaling that the Warriors are out to win these games, even though resting players for the playoffs could be a reasonable strategy.  And avoiding injury is crucial.

Have the Warriors found a way to integrate Cousins in the offense, by slowing down a bit while still emphasizing ball movement in half court sets?  Now the return of Bogut adds another dimension at the center position.  Cousins is out at the moment with an ankle injury; in case of injury, foul trouble or when more defense is needed, Bogut is another veteran option.

 It is unlikely but not inconceivable that the Warriors will end up with a better won-lost than Milwaukee in the East.  But home court in the West is the first task.  It certainly is an advantage over Denver (though the Dubs have handled them on both courts), and a needed one against the one team that has given them the most trouble this year: Houston.  Nobody knows what their regular season games mean, however, since a key player on one of the teams was out for all of their matchups--and the team that lacked a key member won the game 3 out of 4.

Warriors May Be Losing Durant With Sloppy Play and No-Change Giants Reach for Redemption

After weeks of winning, the Golden State Warriors have stumbled badly after the All-Star Break.  Each loss was more embarrassing than the last, culminating so far in losing to the lowly Suns.

They sort of did this last year, but this year I detect a difference: it's making Kevin Durant unhappy.  Some of his comments to reporters are downright cynical.  It's likely the Dubs had a good chance of retaining Durant, but unless things change for the rest of the season, they're apt to lose him this summer, simply because playing for the Warriors may not be fun anymore.  The joy isn't there.  He may look for it elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants are playing pre-season baseball, having made no big trades or acquisitions in the off-season.  Mainly they have a team of players who had bad years last year and are aching for redemption.  Maybe that will turn out to be a good thing, in Bruce Bochy's last season.

They lost out to the Phillies on obtaining Bryce Harper, but that may not turn out to be much of a loss.  Harper is volatile, a me first player who seems like he might turn out to be a bad teammate, and could very well crash and burn long before his ridiculously long contract is up.  That he made his decision to not play in San Francisco partly because of California taxes tells me that baseball and community are not competitive values in his world.  He's not Giants material.

Road Warriors--and Giannis' Crazy Picks

The Golden State Warriors were already on a tear when Boogie Cousins joined the starting five.  They've since been winning by big margins, tight games and coming from behind.  They've won 16 of their last 18 games, including an 11 game winning streak.  They've eclipsed 145 points twice.  At the moment they lead the West by 2.5 games.

Especially intriguing is their road record.  The Road Warriors have won 11 in a row, a streak that's still alive.  The Warriors used to be unbeatable at home, but perhaps distractions or just regular life have fooled with their focus, but they have been sloppier at home than on the road recently.  On the road, with nothing but basketball, they seem more locked in.  Of course, the home fires will be burning more fiercely as the playoffs come closer.

The All-Star break is coming soon, emphasis on break.  The festivities highlight is likely to be the 3 point shooting match between the Curry brothers.  Thanks to the crazy picks by Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James got the better team, by a lot. That he's also getting to audition possible Lakers teammates is at least a bonus for him.  But Team LeBron is so much better that spectators are going to have to count on a certain playfulness and low-key spirit to avoid an embarrassing blowout.

The Superless Bowl (Updated)

Update: ESPN tries to sell it as an epic defensive battle, but this Super Bowl is generally being panned as the worst ever--the Boring Bowl.  It was a game between a team everybody outside MA hates and a team without fans.  Not surprisingly, it got the worst TV ratings in SB history.


Superficially, NFL conference championship Sunday was a success: two seesaw games, settled in overtime, with the underdog winning both on the road.  But really it was a travesty, with one game won on a questionable call and the other on a blown no-call.  In the latter part of both games, it was already clear that the defenses couldn't stop anybody, and the team with the ball last would win.

Plus it was all predictable--all you had to do was read the experts, parading their stats to show that the Rams didn't have a chance and the Patriots not much better off.  When the experts gang up like 5 year olds in a soccer scrum, you know to bet the other way.  Just as I knew that when the experts went on a feeding frenzy declaring Tom Brady finished and the Patriots has-beens when they lost to the Steelers, that in a couple of months the Pats would be back in the Bowl.

Problem now is, it's a Superbowl that nobody outside SoCal and New England will care about.  The matchup everyone wanted was Kansas City and New Orleans--the upstart KC with their freshman phenom quarterback against an old favorite with an aging veteran quarterback still playing at a high level.

Is anybody interested in seeing Brady win another one?  Is there anything interesting about the Rams, besides the money they spent getting here?

Of course, if the experts agree that this could be the lowest rated Superbowl ever, I might have to change my mind.

Steelers' 2018 Year of Travesty

Before the season began, the Pittsburgh Steelers were touted as a Super Bowl contender.  A slimmed down Big Ben was throwing bullets at training camp.  Antonio Brown was back, one of the best receivers in the game, if not the very best.  And despite his evident dissatisfaction with the Steelers' management, Le'Veon Bell, one of the best if not the very best running back in the game, would still be a Steeler for at least this season.

In an unprecedented situation, Bell did not come back for training camp, then for much of the season.  Nevertheless, after a shaky start, the Steelers compensated and started winning.  They found another stellar running back in James Connor, and another wide receiver threat in JuJu-Smith Schuster.  Their suspect defense jelled.   The Steelers ripped off six straight victories and at 7-2-1 they seemed poised to win their division.  With Bell widely believed to be rejoining the team, they could challenge anyone in the playoffs.

Then it all started to fall apart.  Steelers management again would not meet Bell's demands, and he did not rejoin the team.  Then the Steelers lost consecutive games to the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders.  They rallied for a rare win against the Patriots before losing a must-win to the New Orleans Saints.  Not only did they lose the division to a resurgent Baltimore, they didn't even make the playoffs. The season ended on the football field with a whimper, when Smith Schuster fumbled before the tying field goal could be attempted.  An earlier game slipped away when a field goal attempt ended with the kicker falling down.  An anemic victory over the Bengals came too late.

Some of it seemed like the law of averages catching up--they'd won a few games with last minute scores, then they lost a few when they didn't score at the end of the game.  But there was trouble behind the scenes, and once the season was over, the whimper became a bang.

The explosions are still going on.  Antonio Brown seems about to be in open warfare against his coach and Steelers management.  Other players are at each other's throats in social media.  This team is blowing itself up, and nobody knows who is going to be left standing.

The factors involved seem to range from Steelers' management's fatal errors in dealing with Bell to the multiplier effect of social media in creating drama.  This is not the cohesive,  disciplined Steelers team of historical lore.  It's a mind-boggling sight for Steelers fans, and it's far from over.

A Tale of Two Dubs

Embarrassed by a blowout home loss to the Bucks, the Golden State Warriors went to Milwaukee and controlled the game for the victory.  It was a low-scoring game that the Dubs won with a smothering defense--Coach Kerr called it their best defensive effort of the year.  The Bucks tried to replicate the game plan they won with--swarming the Dubs' scoring stars and daring others to make shots.  But those others made shots, and so at key moments did the stars.  Key lesson: defense can win low scoring games, i.e. games when your shots aren't falling.

The Warriors had lost in Toronto while short-handed.  But the Raptors came to Golden State on the second night of a back-to-back, without their star player, and handed the Dubs a 20 point loss.  For the Warriors it was low-scoring, with Steph Curry in particular not hitting.  But it seemed to be the successful execution of a sophisticated game plan that won it for the Raptors, who are now officially the beast of the East and the favorite to wind up in the finals with Golden State.

The Warriors' energy was lacking, and after his long absence while injured, Curry was due for a letdown game.  Key lesson: ineffective defense can lose low-scoring games. But also, there exists a strategy that can win against the Warriors.

After this game, TO lost to Portland while the Dubs pulled out a last minute win in Sacramento--with lots of scoring but a final score that indicated less than stellar defense.  Curry suggested that with the return of Draymond Green the Warriors are still getting used to their rotations again.  Now the Dubs face a bunch of games in December, mostly at home, that this recent experience suggests they'll need to play focused to win.

It Won't Be Easy

To think I've been reading about the Warriors to escape from politics.

Sports commentators started out saying the Draymond Green conflict with Kevin Durant was no big deal; now they're certain that it means Durant will leave the Warriors this summer.  Meanwhile the Dubs have lost three of their last four games, and face some tough competition in the coming week on the road.

But conventional wisdom is..well, conventional.  It's what everybody says because..everybody is saying it.  For example, the loud complaints that the Warriors were unbeatable and the season could just as well be cancelled.  Now the warning that the only way the Dubs get defeated is due to internal strife.

The season is still very young, and some teams doing well now may fade while others now struggling could get themselves together.  But even when the Dubs were on a long winning streak, it was becoming clear that there is competition in the NBA, and not just for second place.

In the western conference, Houston has reemerged as the Warriors nemesis in their lopsided victory this week.  Their defensive switching still mesmerizes the Warriors.  If a playoff series goes to the team that wants it more, then Houston--with a weaker bench but more experience--could knock them off.

Meanwhile the Lakers could be the Cavs of the western conference--a team that can do just enough to let King James win them a series, or a team that can't cope at all.  Portland at this point is maybe a team to watch later.

But what's clear now is that, without Steph Curry or a theoretical Boogie Cousins, the Warriors can be defeated.  Injuries in the playoffs could be enough to dethrone them.

That's even before they face the Eastern champs, be it Boston, Toronto or Milwaukee, any of them pretty much guaranteed to be stronger competition than the Cavs.

The Warriors lost in Dallas tonight but by only a bucket, without Curry or Green, and with a good spread of scoring beyond Durant's 37.  Now they play a better team on the second night of a back to back.  The coming week may not be pretty, but the Warriors will rise again.

On the other hand, if anybody thought it was going to be easy, welcome to the NBA.

Klay Thompson--Remember Him?

 Klay Thompson had made 5 three point shots out of 36 tries--in the previous 8 games this season.  In Chicago he made 6 three pointers-- in the first quarter.  And by the third quarter he set a new NBA all time record for made threes: 14.  The record-holder had been (of course) Steph Curry.

I saw a YouTube full game video with the Chicago announcers who never had a clue that Klay had broken this record.  They made up something for why Steph raised his hands in celebration and the bench went wild.

But the above video of Klay's points (including the 14 threes) has the Warriors announcers and they were on it.  There's no streak shooter like Klay, and though the Bulls' defense was terrible, defenses don't much matter when Klay gets hot.  Another one for the ages.

Not to be overlooked, but all the Warriors were setting up Klay's shot, and Steph Curry sacrificed continuing his record-setting pace in points and three point shots to help Klay go for the record that erases Curry's record.   It's also worth mentioning that Curry had 11 threes in three quarters the other night, and could have broken his own record if he'd played the fourth quarter, chalking up 15 or more threes.

Then again, Klay didn't play the fourth quarter on Monday either.

Steph Curry--Remember Him?

Just a few games into the season, but so far Steph Curry is reclaiming his status as a wonder of the basketball world.

 A two-time MVP and 3 point shooting phenom who literally changed how NBA basketball is played, he's been kind of an afterthought the past two seasons.  But in this young year, he's back. He's scoring at around a 30 point game average, but last night against Washington he had one of those signature Curry games.  He scored 51 points in three quarters (really, in two quarters plus a little more.) He hit 11 three point shots, and extended his series of records for 3s that is too dominant to go into.

The Warriors were so far ahead after 3 quarters that he didn't play in the fourth, so there's no telling what records he might have set.

 Here are two things I think about now when I think about Steph Curry.  First, that he ends his daily shooting regimen with 100 three pointers.  That's 100, to end his workout.

Second, there are these video ads on YouTube with famous people in various fields--acting, film directing, writing, etc.--advertising their Master Classes.  In his, Curry talks about what shooters focus on when they shoot.  The front of the rim of the basket?  The square over the basket on the backboard?  Curry says he focuses on the metal rings through which the nylon of the basket are threaded.

 He said that from any angle he can usually see at least two or three of them.  He focuses on these as he takes his shot.

Consider then that Steph Curry, the documented best long range shooter in NBA history, is often shooting from about 30 feet away, or a little less and a lot more.

He is also known for one of the quickest releases in basketball--and he's even quicker this year.  No stare at the basket, dribble and set his feet and shoot.  His shot is off in a shot, as you can see from several long-range shots in the video from last night.  How can he even see those metal rings from 30 feet and beyond, let alone focus on them in a millisecond?

 Apparently Curry was hitting regularly from half court in his warmups last evening.  But it isn't until the game starts that shooters know if they're hot.  Game announcers often suggest that a particularly long range shot after several makes is a "heat check."  Once a shooter is hot, teammates look for them to shoot.  And in the first and third quarters last night, Curry's shot was on fire.  Several shots were not only from amazing distances and in difficult situations, they were beautiful. So it's more than distraction.  It's wonder.


In the MLB postseason, I've gone from a Yankees fan (because Cutch was starting) and Brewer's fan to a Red Sox fan.  I've got some Boston cred--I lived and worked there in the 70s.  For all their power hitting rep, I've been most impressed with their fielding. Andrew Benintendi's leaping catch in the second game was a thing of beauty.

Start Times

The NBA preseason is over, the 2018-19 season about to begin.  As of this writing, the Golden State Warriors still have roster moves to make, and I'm guessing there may be surprises, and maybe even an acquisition.

The Dubs enter as heavy favorites to win it all.  However, the preseason suggested some vulnerabilities.  The starting All-Star four seem absolutely ready, though they haven't played together much.  In both games against the Lakers, one star was on the bench.

But the bench players are another matter.  Against the Lakers last night, they were the gang that couldn't shoot.  The Lakers enter the season with a much more productive bench.

Add to this the mystery of Patrick McCaw, that the Dubs were treating like a star of the future.  He didn't sign either of the generous contracts he was offered, and is reportedly not even talking to the club. That's a loss to the bench, though also an opportunity for someone to step up.  So far, it doesn't look like anyone has.

The vulnerability seems to be on the wings, and perhaps at the point.  The Warriors need production out of the second unit, and don't want to depend on the veterans who will be crucial for the playoffs.  They hope that Jonas Jerebko will be a three point threat, something the second unit lacked last year.  But the preseason didn't show it.

The starting five looks solid, though, with Damian Jones and Kevon Looney ready to be the big until the much anticipated entry of All-Star acquisition DeMarcus Cousins.  Jordan Bell seems more of a project but has a lot of potential.

Maybe the sloppy play of the reserves against the Lakers will turn out to be just a learning experience.  And the overall team will look different by the time the season actually starts on Tuesday against the Thunder.

End Times

The San Francisco Giants hit into five double plays--two to end the 8th and 9th-- in a futile effort to stop the Dodgers in the first game of the last series of the season, losing by the familiar score of 3-1.  The 1 is the familiar part.

Madison Bumgarner started, and though he has a year left on his contract, lots of speculation that it's his last year in San Francisco.  That seems nearly certain for outfielder Hunter Pence, who has been making the best of his last few games with home runs and exciting play.  He gave what may have been an exit interview about why SF fans are special.

Everyone expects a lot of changes, on the field and off, for the Giants for next year, as the championship seasons of 10, 12 and 14 become distant memories.  Remaining players of those years--especially Pence--are still fan favorites.

And so the inexplicable season ends with only one obvious observation: it turned out after all that the vulnerability wasn't pitching--both the young starters and the bullpen did pretty well for the last part of the season--but hitting, especially hitting for power.  That may turn out to be even harder to remedy than pitching.

The postseason is still undecided for a number of other teams--including the Dodgers--so it's time for my annual lecture on the proper use of the term "clinch."  A team clinches something--a division championship, a wild card berth for instance--when they will win it at the end of the season even if they lose every game still to be played.  The term only has meaning when there are games yet to play.  Otherwise teams "win" championships etc.

Yet "clinched" is often misused when the proper term is "won."   In other words, when a team wins the final game of a series, or in the NBA for example when they win four games in a playoff series so that the full seven are not played, they have won--not clinched--the championship.  It is possible in the NBA to clinch a playoff spot in the regular season when there are games yet to be played, but a team can only win (or lose) a playoff series.

End of lecture about the end of the season.  I must add that I've become a temporary Yankees fan since Andrew McCutchen has been playing left field for New York.  He got a hit, scored and drove in a run in today's win over the Red Sox.  I should give props to the SF Giants front office for making sure they traded Cutch to a contender, so that he can play in the postseason.  In Pittsburgh he played in a couple of wild card games and one division championship series, but not beyond that.

I'm not yet sure however that my Yankeeness will overcome my Boston ties if and when they play each other for the division championship.  Then again, the Yankees were the first AL team I followed as a kid, when they had Mantle, Maris, Moose Scowron etc. and one of my pitching heroes, Whitey Ford.  But I think seeing Cutch get into the World Series will overcome my Boston reflex.

And with the end comes a beginning--of Golden State Warriors basketball!  It should be an exciting season.  It starts with nearly everybody healthy, a lot of young players who will get big minutes, and the integration of Boogie Cousins into the starting lineup, which may start sooner than later.

Shame

In his first season in San Francisco, Andrew McCutchen leads the Giants in home runs, RBIs, hits, runs scored, doubles, stolen bases and walks. He leads the team in games and innings played.  And the Giants reportedly just traded him. Apparently for a mediocre minor league infielder they don't need. And on a day that another Giants outfielder goes on the DL and requires surgery.

They didn't even give him a full season--a player of his calibre, and a standup guy. This is a day of shame for the San Francisco Giants.

Giving Up

Update 8/30: In his first season in San Francisco, Andrew McCutchen leads the Giants in home runs, RBIs, hits, runs scored, doubles, stolen bases and walks.  And the Giants reportedly just traded him.  For next to nothing.  Shame.


The last straw was Buster Posey requiring season-ending surgery.  Pablo Sandoval needing same was a mere warmup.  The San Francisco have lost six of their last seven, scoring three runs or fewer for--well, living memory--and they've put Andrew McCutchen on trade waivers.  They've given up.

Here's the thing: it wasn't the best year of Cutch's career, and he had his ups and downs at the plate, but over the season it's hard to name a Giant player who was better. He's played more games and more innings than any other position player.  He was more than competent in the field and as a hitter.  He's admitted that the trade from Pittsburgh was wrenching, so feeling comfortable in San Francisco was going to take some time.  He didn't get it.

The Giants' fall is in some sense inexplicable so it's anybody's guess how they improve next year.  But getting rid of Cutch after one season does not sit well with me.  So for now, if they indeed trade Cutch, I'm giving up on the Giants until they give me a reason to think better of them.

25

I've just watched video of the ceremony in San Francisco Saturday to retire Barry Bond's number 25.  The Giants organization planned it well: 25 years after Bonds joined the Giants, and before a game with the only other Major League team Bonds played for, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

I only saw Bonds in one game at the San Francisco ball park (he struck out twice.)  But I saw him in probably a dozen games in his Pittsburgh years.  In one of the last games, I saw him hit safely to all fields, at least 4 hits, mostly rocket line drives that could take your breath away even if they stayed in the park.

So perhaps it was fitting that the most important words spoken about Bonds at this Saturday's ceremony were from his Pirates manager Jim Leyland--that is, at least in one important context.

There are probably Giants fans who were surprised that Bonds' number hadn't been retired long ago.  We all know why not.  But now with the entire organization behind him, this ceremony, this display provides a powerful boost to Bonds' chances of finally getting into the baseball Hall of Fame.

Willie Mays spoke at the ceremony, though apparently he wasn't scheduled to do so, and he issued the call: vote him in.  Maybe I'm prejudiced by my Pittsburgh roots, but I believe Leyland's carefully worded statement was even more important: "Without question, [Bonds] is the best player I ever managed in my 22 years as a major league skipper."  

Those are powerful words coming from one of the most revered managers (he won a World Series title with the Marlins) who is himself likely to be voted into the Hall.

Bonds won the National League MVP twice in his six Pittsburgh seasons. He won his first in 1990 when he hit .301 with 33 homers and stole 52 bases, and won a Gold Glove.  He won his second in 1993 with similar numbers.  He wound up winning 7 MVPs--no other player has won more than 3.  That's just the beginning of his records, which no other player in any "era" in which he played could equal.  Barry Bonds belongs in the baseball Hall of Fame, or nobody does.

Don't Trade The Cutch

It's not just because I'd be crushed if the San Francisco Giants traded Andrew McCutchen before I had a chance to see him play in a Giants uniform.  I'm against trading him in August (as the depressing consensus seems to say the Giants might like to) for non-personal reasons as well.

Cutch has just been moved to leadoff, and he seems to be thriving there.  He brings stability to a lineup that needs it, with all the injuries this year, and all the experiments based on performance.  Though they seem to lack the starting pitching to go far (see below), the Giants could make some noise the rest of this season with this lineup. San Francisco is hungry for that.

The other reason goes to credibility.  If the Giants want to acquire star players, they have to treat them well when they move out there.  Cutch has been uprooted from his hometown of Pittsburgh.  Based on his past performance and status, he deserves at least a full season in San Francisco.  But also, not giving him at least that long might make the Giants' organization look bad to prospective stars.  The Giants apparently missed out on free agents because they thought the team wasn't ready to contend.  If it also gives the impression of treating players like meat, stars are going to be even more leery of coming to the Bay.

The Giants return home after their first winning road trip since June.  The last part of the trip was notable for two players the Giants traded for this year with high and so far unfulfilled hopes.  Andrew McCutchen had a five hit game, including a homer, though unfortunately in a lost cause.  But he hit and got on base in other games as well.  Evan Longoria hit two home runs, including a solo shot that won the key game of the trip, the final game in Arizona that meant a split in that series and a 4-2 trip.  So maybe they've turned a corner.

The young players continue to perform well, and the combination should make for some good baseball and exciting games at home.  But their season is likely to founder on what once was their strongest feature: starting pitching.  They had three veteran starters at the beginning of the season, and lost all three to injury.  Now one of them--Cueto--is out for the year, and the other probably is.  Madison Bumgarner is still a great pitcher, but a contender needs more than one veteran star starter.

The Giants have several good young starters, but as the games in Arizona suggested, they haven't yet developed quite enough to carry a team that doesn't score many runs.  Still, there is a sudden youth movement on the Giants, which combined with the established stars, the younger veterans (like Kelby) and the new veterans (Cutch and Longoria) could make for unpredictable brilliance in any given game.

The Bad Luck Giants

The San Francisco Giants run of bad luck continues in terms of injuries.  Their second best starter Johnny Cueto, out for most of the season, now faces the likelihood of surgery that will end his season and threatens his career.  Hardly a game goes by that doesn't see a Giants player heading for the DL, the latest being Pablo Sandoval.

Another aspect of luck that was once with the Giants and has since disappeared was the luck of the trade.  In their glory years, nearly every trade the Giants made paid off, some of them--like obtaining Hunter Pence--big time.  But in recent years their high profile trades have largely been busts.  That was once again dramatically demonstrated on the field Monday in San Diego.

The Giants had a 3-0 lead thanks to one hit--a homer by utility fielder Chase d'Arnaud.  But they couldn't add on and the Padres chipped away until it was 3-2 going into the eighth.  Manager Bruce Bochy chose Mark Melancon to pitch the bottom of the eighth.  When the Giants traded for him, Melancon was a premier closer.  Injuries and ineffectiveness have made him a liability in close games, so it was completely predictable that the Padres would hit him and score.  The only unusual event was that they only tied the game.

In the top of the tenth, the Giants had runners on first and third with two out, thanks to some actual good luck within the game, on bounces and bad throws.  The Padres are not a good team.  Up came Evan Longoria, another high profile trade for a veteran All-Star.  As Dave Fleming said on the radio, they traded for him for just these moments.  He popped up on the first pitch.

Fortunately, however, the Giants gritted it out to win in 12 innings on a home run by one of their pleasant surprises, Gorkys Hernandez, and bravura pitching by Will Smith.

When they traded for Andrew McCutchen, they hoped he would give them the combination of power, average, speed on the basepaths and brilliant fielding that ignites a team.  He's given them at least something positive in all those departments except power, so he's been moved to lead-off batter in the hopes that he can ignite the team from there.

It could be a long rest of the season.  With their upgrade trade, the Dodgers are clear favorites in the division, and the Giants had another hitting drought after the break to fall pretty much out of contention.  But they can still play exciting baseball. They have found a number of really good young players, and they have core stars like Crawford, Posey and Bumgarner, and undervalued players like Kelby Tomlinson who keeps bouncing back from the minors to play key roles, as he did Monday.  It seems they've finally found a closer in Will Smith, who struck out four Padres in a row to win (and save) the 12 inning game on Monday.

Meanwhile there are a few hours before the trading deadline. McCutchen is being talked about in the media as a possible trade.  That would be depressing--I haven't even had the chance to see him in a Giants uniform. In any case,  I almost cringe at the idea of a trade now.  Not for the Bad Luck Giants.

Update: The trading deadline came and went without the Giants making a move.  In a quick turnaround day game, their rookie phenom Rodriegez lost a deserved win when Longoria failed to come home on a passed ball to the backstop.  He sort of made up for it with a triple in the 10th, as did Brian Crawford who singled him in, after striking out looking at three pitches with the bases loaded in the 8th.  So the Giants barely survived two games in extra innings against the weakest team in the division.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers got more depth via trade, and the surging Pirates went all in to try to challenge for a playoff spot this year.

Will They Be Giants?

Someone somewhere posted a comparison between where the San Francisco Giants are this year at the All Star break, and where they were in 2010, the year of their first of even-year championships this decade.  This year and 2010 are pretty much identical: in fourth place but not very many games back, with a barely winning record.

It's true that the Giants' division is not especially strong this year, but do the Giants have a chance?  Probably not.  They've got a few very promising young pitchers, but not what they had in 2010.  They don't have a dominant closer, as they did then.
But what the Giants this year really don't have that they had then is luck.  The Giants were very good in their championship years, but they were also lucky. Fairly nondescript players came through with heroic moments, especially in the post-season.  There were players like Cody Ross who had never been that good before, and he never was again.

Now there is a momentum to luck, a belief, when the team gets on another level. It's something that feeds on itself, the fans become part of it, and it's one of those wonders that makes baseball fun.  But it also comes and goes.

Luck translates most obviously into staying healthy.  And that's partly where the Giants' run of bad luck began at the All Star break two seasons ago, and continues.  This year they survived the first half with their three top starters and their star closer injured.  Now two of the starters are back and working themselves into form.  But the third is injured again, and the closer is not what he was. As for position players, as soon as one comes back, another gets injured.  Now it's Joe Panik.

So could the Giants make a run for the division?  Sure, it's possible--with luck.  Getting deep into the postseason would require even more luck: team of destiny kind of luck, the kind they had in 2010.  At least a couple of position players and several pitchers who are having good years will need to be phenomenal in the second half, and those having so-so years will need to be great, or at least have great moments in key games.  The talent is there.  It could happen.  With luck.  A lot of luck.

Warriors Winning Summer, Giants Poised

 The above excerpt about says it all concerning the Warriors and Boogie Cousins joining the team.  The consensus of smart people seems to be that Cousins could well be a tremendous addition late in the season and in the playoffs, depending on how well he comes back from a serious injury.  It certainly ups the excitement level for Golden State fans.

This happened a day after LeBron announced he was signing a four year deal with the Lakers--a coup for the great Magic Johnson that will add to the western conference sizzle next year.

Meanwhile the Warriors Summer League team looks pretty good, too.  So far they are indeed winning the summer.

In baseball, until they arrived in Colorado, the Giants were on a roll, winning 9 out of 10, including a sweep of the Diamondbacks.  They did so with some young arms they discovered because their starters were injured.  All three injured starters will be back by next week.  Will Smith is dominating the bullpen, though a right handed closer is still elusive.  With Strickland's stupid injury and Melancon's slow slow return to effectiveness, it's the team's biggest vulnerability.

But if things fall into place, the Giants are in fine position to make their move.  The second half of the season could be really interesting.

NBA Nonsense

It's blathering time for NBA talkers and writers.  How smart do you have to be to know that LeBron James is not staying in Cleveland, and is not going to Golden State?  Nor are the Warriors going to be trading any of their major players for anybody--who thinks like this?  Beyond that, it's a long summer.  Most likely for LeBron, though: the Lakers.

Sweep

The Golden State Warriors swept the Finals for their second championship in a row, and third in four years.

A few particularly good pieces on game 4, on Steph Curry, and FiveThirtyEight on the Warriors culture contributing to a dynasty, similar in some ways to the ESPN piece before the finals started.

Kevin Durant got his second Finals MVP in a row, though many observers thought it should have gone to Steph Curry.  But today's sportswriting is enthralled with stats, and KD's were arguably better.  That doesn't make him the MVP.  It was Steph.

Everybody's got their narrative, especially now that LeBron James revealed that he played the last 3 games with a hand he injured in frustration after the first game. But here's mine.

In these playoffs LeBron has often spent the first game feeling out the opposition, but in the first game of the Finals he came out firing.  The Dubs were good defensively but not quite keyed in to LeBron and the Cleveland players they'd never seen before.  At the end of the game, GS unquestionably got the breaks to keep the game tied in regulation, and they blew Cleveland away in overtime.

Another factor in game 1 was how to compensate for Andre Igoudala still being out.  Coach Kerr solved it by starting JaVale McGee, who jumpstarted the Warriors energy, especially in the second game.  The Dubs upped their defense, especially on James, and Curry caught fire late, pumping in a Finals record 9 three pointers.

Iggy came back for the third game but the Warriors had some difficulty integrating him again early, and his rust showed.  The Cavs decided to trap Curry, and Steph had an off night shooting as well.  But it was Iggy's presence on defense that freed KD from responsibility for James, and the combination of that with the Cavs obsession with Steph gave KD openings on the offense.  He responded with a magic touch on short, mid-range and especially long range shots, and carried the offense.

Statistically Steph had a bad shooting game but he made key buckets--especially his only three in the fourth quarter, which gave the momentum back to the Warriors.

Game 4 saw the Warriors take defensive intensity to a new level, while the Cavs sagged.  Numerous commentators saw the Cavs give in, but the Cavs weren't that good on defense the entire series.  It was their lack of defensive skills and defensive energy vs. Golden State, and the Warriors tremendous defense that made for the sweep.

At least one commentator criticized the Warriors bench before the Finals started, but even though starters always play more minutes in the Finals, the Warrior bench contributed mightily.  It was a team effort that won the championship, again.  Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors, 2017-18 NBA Champions!

After All That It's..Warriors v. Cavs

The seventh game of the western conference finals was as schizophrenic as the first six, but this time--and perhaps earlier-- it was likely due to the attrition of fatigue.  The Rockets set a record for 3 point futility--they missed 27 in a row.  It's still amazing to me that teams shoot as many as 27 threes.  As in game 6, they were energetic and sharp in the first half and fell apart in the second.  The Warriors had their monster third quarter, and kept the pressure on in the fourth.

The key to the Rockets taking this game--though nobody would ever say it--was to get at least one of the key Warriors in foul trouble early.  The likely candidates (because of their defensive responsibilities) were Green and Thompson.  They succeeded with Thompson, who was guarding Harden.  They limited him to 31 minutes and 19 points.  But a lot of those points--especially 3s--came at big moments in the game.

However they didn't succeed otherwise: KD, Steph Curry and Green all played exactly 44 minutes.  Green was a defensive beast, and chipped in 10 points.  Steph went off in the third, finished with a loud 27.  Kevin Durant redeemed himself with a quiet but lethal 34.

James Harden took a ton of shots, missed three quarters of a ton and ended up with 34, not many of them in the second half.  Chris Paul missed his second game in a row with the hamstring injury he suffered at the end of game 5.  Andre Iguodala was also out again for the Warriors.

By purist standards, it's amazing that either team won.  Golden State started with what their coach called "the worst quarter I've ever seen this team play" and Houston had a historically cold shooting night.  Which is why it was reasonably close at 101-92.

But credit the Warriors: it's the first game 7 they've ever won on the road, and their defense kept the mighty Rockets offense below 100 points most of the series.

So the Warriors meet the Cavs, beginning on Thursday at Golden State.  It should not be a close series, but this Warrior's team has become unpredictable.  They could lose the first game on sheer soreness and exhaustion, although LeBron is likely fatigued as well.

Anyway, it's the series that nobody wanted to see again: the pre-season favorites that as late as last week, didn't look like they would be meeting again, the fourth consecutive time for the championship.  I'm willing to bet that no game in the finals will eclipse the ratings for the game played tonight in Houston.  But it's LeBron and Steph and KD, so game on.

Remains of the Conference Finals

Update: After game 6, the Warriors titanic second half demonstrates which is the better team.  The question for game 7 Monday is will the better team show up.

Two games in a row in which the Warriors lost by 3 and 4 points, and didn't score 100 in either game.  One game can be nothing but itself.  But two games in a row starts to look like a pattern.  It starts to look like the Rockets have found something that works.

The Warriors must win their next two games to make the finals.  It is their test of character as a team, and it is specifically a test of Kevin Durant.

LeBron James has taken Cleveland to a seventh game in the East.  If he succeeds in carrying the Cavs to the Finals and Durant does not contribute to winning the West, the debate over who is the best player in the league is over.

The finals could be nothing like what everyone expected.  How weird if neither Golden State nor Cleveland is in them.  How much weirder still if Cleveland is, but the Warriors are not.

Going Into (and Out of) Game 5

The Western Conference finals enter the usually crucial fifth game, which the Houston Rockets made crucial again by winning the fourth game, topping the Warriors by 3 points at Golden State.

By doing so, the Rockets made it a series, and could take control of it with a game 5 win at home.  Because of home court and the short duration between games 3, 4 and 5, Houston will be the favorite.

The won't win, though.  If game 4 was a test of James Harden's legacy, game 5 is a test of the Warriors, and specifically Kevin Durant.  Durant had chances to nail down the win in game 4 but rushed his shots and failed to play Warrior team basketball.

The team that wins game 5 has two games to win their fourth, with both teams having a home game remaining.  They both won a game on the road.  By winning the first game, the Warriors still have an advantage in the game to game adjustments, going into game 5.

They should have Iguodala back, a crucial player against this Houston lineup.  The first three games were blowouts.  In game 4, the two teams alternated dominating quarters: the Warriors won the first and third, the Rockets won the second and fourth.  Game 5 may finally be the game that is close from start to finish.  Or not. These two teams are unusual.

The Rockets are hungry.  They know that the winner of this series is a prohibitive favorite to win the championship.  But the Warriors are champions, and more than in any game in the past two playoffs, they must prove it in game 5.

The Warriors will win game 5 on the road, and game 6 at home to wrap up the series.

There is not much to say about the Eastern conference, except that with both teams winning their home games, the advantage still lies with Boston.  The likely remaining question is whether they win it in 6 or 7.

Going Into Game 4

The Golden State Warriors won game 3 at home by the historic margin of 41 points, and set a new NBA record for consecutive wins at home in the playoffs.  Best of all for the home team, Steph Curry had a monster third quarter, hitting 7 of 7, including four 3s.  He became the game's high scorer with 35.

As one commentator observed, when Steph gets hot at the Oracle Arena, for fans it's like a religious experience.  It envelopes that building in wonder and joy.

But as the Warriors know, this is half of what they must do.  Houston must win game 4 to have any reasonable chance in the series, and the Warriors must win it to stay in control of the series.

The anomaly of the series so far is that there hasn't yet been a game in which both teams play at a high level.  We haven't yet seen that game that comes down to the last minutes.  If we are going to see one, it's probably going to be game 4.

James Harden's likely MVP won't be worth much to his reputation unless he can lead his team to a victory in game 4.  Chris Paul must be hearing the talk that he doesn't look right on the floor.  Can he counter that talk, as Steph Curry did?

 But the Warriors at home know this is their best shot at avoiding the uncertainty of a game 7 in Houston.  It's usually game 5 that is the most significant, after game 1.  But in this series, it's game 4.  The situation suggests it will be a brutally physical game, and the final score will be close.

The fly in the ointment for the Dubs is whether Andre Iguodala is healthy enough to perform well in game 4.  On Monday he was listed as doubtful because of a bruised knee.  However, X-rays came back clean, so it will all depend on how sore his knee is on Tuesday morning.

Game 4 is at 6 pm at Oracle.

In the East, Cleveland won their home games and the series is tied at 2-2.  So it's still a series.  It was all LeBron in game 4, so it seems the series is up to him. Boston doesn't have to win anywhere but in Boston.  Cleveland has to take one on the road--even if it's game 7.

In baseball, Brandon Belt is on a home run tear.  He's hit 5 homers in the past seven games, including a three run shot that provided the winning margin on Sunday for the San Francisco Giants.  Brandon Crawford is also having a terrific month at the plate.  After winning streaks, losing streaks and splits, the Giants head out on an 8 game homestand at .500, and in the hunt.

Going Into Game Three

The first two games of the western conference finals fit the playoff pattern: each team has a blowout win, and conversely a loss that makes them look very vulnerable.  If this pattern holds, the rest of the games to be played will be closer, including at least one decided in the last minute, or the last few seconds.

With their commanding win in game 2, the Rockets have confidence in their game.  The Warriors, who frightened fans with their regular season tendency--different from the past two seasons--to fall apart and get beat big, have rattled their fans for sure with this game, and perhaps impressed themselves with what they need to do every game.

What the second game showed was what I proposed as the Rockets path to victory: the Rockets made adjustments, then played at the top of their game, while the Warriors played at the bottom of theirs.  Two games with a day between on the road is as hard as the playoff schedule gets.  It seems unlikely that Steph and Klay will miss so many shots at home.  It seems unlikely that the Warriors play as badly again--but given the regular season, there's some doubt.

Steph Curry will need to have a big game to silence the questions about his recovery from his latest injury.  He denies that he's not as quick physically, but he did that two years ago also, when he was in fact not fully recovered.

Now the Warriors must win their two home games in order to stay in control of this series.  They then have the luxury of not needing game 5, and taking the series with game 6 at home.  Anything short of taking the next two games is dangerous.  That has to be their mindset.

In the eastern conference finals, game 3 is an obvious must-win for Cleveland at home.  Having lost the first two games on the road, they must win all their home games plus one in Boston.  They don't seem to have the firepower or the defense to make up this deficit, as they made up a 3-1 deficit two years ago in the finals to win the championship.  Not if the Celtics stay as healthy as they are now.

The East plays game 3 Saturday, the West on Sunday.

Conference Finals: The Story So Far

We should be used to this by now--after every game 1 victory for Golden State, nobody in sports media can figure out how they are going to lose.  But teams make adjustments, and I'd be surprised if the Rockets don't at least make a game of it tonight.

To be fair to the commentators, the Rockets seem locked into the style that didn't work, so maybe they can't make enough adjustments. Right now the Warriors look like the better and more flexible team. They have more than one way to win.  But if the Rockets successfully adjust their offense and defense and win the second game, then game 5 looms large.

If they don't adjust, or if they do adjust and still lose, then it is pretty much over. It's more than a math truism to observe that if the Dubs win tonight, they very well could sweep.  The problem for the Rockets is that they need to play an almost perfect game, and the Dubs must slump.  The Rockets can't stop Durant, but he could have a poor shooting night. Still, they have to worry about Steph Curry and/or Klay Thompson going off.

It will be interesting to see what lineup Coach Kerr starts.  Will he rest Iggy as he did between road games in the last series?  That lineup didn't get the team off to a great start anyway.

 We'll know more about how long a series this is likely to be after game 2.  But in almost any scenario, the Warriors should prevail.

It also looks very much like the Warriors' Finals opponent will be the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have not only lost the first two games, they looked bad doing it.  The Celtics also look to be a stronger opponent for the Warriors, especially because of their coach and his relationship with his players.  That combined with their youth could win them a couple of games.  But the Dubs will expose their inexperience.   It could be a respectably long series.

The Giants got a victory in Pittsburgh to break their road trip losing streak, and promptly won the first two against the Reds at home.  After living off their rookies and young players in the early season, the veterans are starting to come through at the plate.  Some exciting baseball back at what seems like a still not regularly sold out field.