Onward with the Golden State Warriors

 The plain fact about the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs is that this is a team no one has seen before. Comprised of veterans with championships and acknowledged greatness, and younger players of immense potential, it is nevertheless a new team.  With key players getting injured and returning from injury throughout the second half of the season, this is a team that has never played together before, until the playoffs.  That's also because the players who got more minutes than they otherwise would have with one star or another out, are themselves different players because of that.

The Warriors won their first round series against Denver and last year's (and perhaps this year's) regular season MVP, with two blowout wins and two character-builders--three if you count the one they lost.  They get an extra day or two of rest on their next opponent, and they are still healthy.  Best of all, Steph Curry came back in this series with a quick return to top form.  He took over the last minutes of the deciding game.

Now suddenly the Warriors are the favorites to win the NBA championship.  Excessive enthusiasms one way or another have become the hallmark of sports coverage and the echo chamber of sports pundits.  And it's true that this Warriors teams, like some of the championship years, at times seems otherworldly.  When they are playing well this team is more dazzling and fun to watch than any other.

But they are a new team, and prudence suggests their crowning after one round is premature.  I'm a Warriors fan but I have no idea how this team will fare against any of their opponents, because this particular team has never played them.

If you're going by the fact that no other team in the West won their first round--usually the easiest for the higher seed--in five games, that shows vulnerabilities but not necessarily to the Warriors.  However, with the decline of Phoenix in the playoffs, it's not a bad bet that the Warriors will emerge champions of the West, ultimately.

But in the East, the Boston Celtics didn't just win in five--they swept a team many pundits picked to win it all, the Brooklyn Nets.  The Celtics specialize in brutal defense--and I mean brutal in both senses of the word.  If they come out of the East, the Warriors will likely be tested.

But that's a month away.  These Warriors are still a new team in the second round, and if they get through that, the third.  It's going to be exciting--maybe too exciting--but anyway, exciting.

Suddenly the Warriors

 

To expect success in the playoffs, a team needs to go into them healthy and with momentum.  There are exceptions but that's the rule.

With a few weeks left in the season, the Golden State Warriors had neither.  Still trying to adapt to the loss of their latest injured star (Steph Curry), they were losing, and to much weaker teams.  After two years recovering from injuries, Klay Thompson was slowly rounding into form, and after his injury, Draymond Green admitted he wasn't playing well.  Meanwhile, the Warriors looked like they would drop further down in seeding, and miss any home court advantage.

But then things started to click.  The Warriors started winning, Green and Thompson became brilliant again, and the team secured the three seed with a five game winning streak.  It looked like Curry would be back for the first game of the playoffs, at home against Denver.

Until the playoffs, the core of stars--Curry, Thompson and Green--had played together for less than 20 minutes total this season.  But during all this turmoil, the younger and newer players got plenty of court time, lots of attention from the coaching staff, and all kinds of game experience.  Some found solid roles.  Two in particular--Jonathan Kuminga and Jordan Poole--were learning so much that they seemed like different players each game.  Andrew Wiggins, who played himself into the All Star game in the first half of the season, was up and down, but was starting to settle in as the season ended.  By then, Jordan Poole in particular was emerging as a star, a younger version of Steph.  Once again, this is a team that is the most fun to watch.

 Of course Coach Steve Kerr could not have planned it this way, but he did foresee its advantages.  It was clear from earlier in the season that the Warriors have now assembled a very talented group beyond the starters.  So when the playoffs began, Poole was starting--and starring--while other players were ready to make the most of their minutes to help the team.

Only time will tell, but it is possible that this is a better team than it was with Kevin Durant.  After two overpowering victories in the first round, a gutty win in the third game, and a sweep within sight, people were taking another look at the championship potential of the Warriors--not next year but this year.

As good as the Warriors were in the first half, when they had the league's best record, they are better now.  They look devastating against the Denver Nuggets.  No one could know what the chemistry would be like when various combinations of this core group played together--Steph, Klay, Draymond, Poole, Wiggins, Kevon Looney and Andre Igoudala.  But it's been immediate.  There might have been a question about Curry returning from his foot injury, ready to play--but once he became comfortable with the pace of the game, the rest seemed to provide him with the energy in the second game to score more points in the briefest time than anyone else.

Right now it looks like the only thing that can stop these Warriors is... the same thing that has stymied them for the past two years: injuries.  The playoffs are brutal.  It's going to take that other necessary element to succeed in the playoffs: good fortune.  They've had enough of the other kind.   

The NFL, the Super Bowl and the Game

 The NFL is in such deep shit that it gives a new meaning to Super Bowl.  Fired Dolphins coach Brian Flores is suing the entire league for a pattern of racism in hiring, but his supporting allegations seem to go beyond that.  His charge that owners run the league "like a plantation" only articulates in a very public way what some sportswriters and others have been saying for years, though sometimes more obliquely. 

Meanwhile, the Washington football club and its current management have not gotten out from under their troubles with a less than popular new team name.  As one article recently summarized the situation, the league is in general disrepute, but it rakes in so much cash and the owners are so absurdly wealthy that they feel invulnerable.

One reason is the strange centrality in American culture of the Super Bowl.  Why is it a national holiday and obsession on a par with Christmas--or exceeding it?  It's not often even a very good football game.  But it's self-generating hype at this point, with TV heavily invested.  And given the pandemic and the perilous state of politics, we are desperate for distraction.  We'll ignore insurrection, mob insanity, war, death, racism, anything.  Let's wallow and rate the multi-million dollar commercials.

And so we're into it again.  But is this year's winner even in doubt?  The LA Rams are a very wealthy team that spent heavily on the best veteran players it could buy precisely to be in this game, in its own stadium. It's a team that not only feels it belongs in the Super Bowl, it feels entitled.  Meanwhile, the Bengals are the unlikely opponent, that nobody predicted would be there, and some refuse to even believe they are.

So it's a great setup for a David and Goliath story, with the All American boy Joe Burrow as the miracle making hero.  He is certainly a highly gifted quarterback with an almost magical quality.  His problem is that in order to throw a pass, he has to be standing up.  The Rams have an overpowering defensive line and pass rush, the Bengals a not very good offensive line.  Maybe Burrow spends just enough time not flat on his back to squeak out a victory in a low-scoring game, as he has before in these playoffs.  But it seems much more likely that the best possible outcome is that he survives this game without serious injury.  The Rams may not score much either, so I expect this to be a ugly game.

The retirement of Tom Brady and the Steelers' Big Ben symbolize the changeover to Burrow and the other young quarterbacks that run a different kind of game.  While not quite as thoroughly as Steph Curry changed NBA basketball, these exciting young quarterbacks are what could save the game on the field.  But it's in the executive suites that the smelly problems persist.

 It didn't take long for everybody to forget concussions and serious injuries that could be avoided with rule and equipment changes.  That responsibility also belongs to the league leadership.  But they don't really care.  Nor does the sports media that feeds off the mayhem.  They provide the deodorant.  Besides, it's more difficult to get upset about violence in football when  it's ominously clear that daily life in America is becoming more violent.  While the bodies crashed in the LA stadium during the last game, a visiting fan was beaten and killed outside.  It isn't just the NFL that's in deep shit these days.

They Might Be Warriors

 The San Francisco Giants' great star Buster Posey announced his retirement last week, formally ending an era.  He chose to go out on a high note: leading his team to the best record in MLB, hitting for average and with power as in his best years, and perhaps more than ever, handling each pitcher from behind the plate to maximize their game.  Several years back, the thought was to move Posey to another position to extend his career, but he's just too good as a catcher, and the pitchers depended on him.

Posey left with MLB and Giants records, but he also leaves the team with a huge gap at a key position.  His leadership in general will also be sorely missed.  Any chance of the Giants repeating the kind of year they had in 2021 is deeply diminished.

But teams can regenerate, with the right managerial leadership and a good deal of luck.  Witness the Golden State Warriors, rebuilding for the past few years after losing KD (to injured pride) and Klay (to injury.)  Young players shuffled through, some were retained and developed, and more were added, including several lucky finds.  

The results so far are impressive: the best record in the NBA with one loss in overtime and nine wins, many of them by double digits (including a recent game they won by more than 40.)  Credit is owed the coaching staff--if this season continues this way, nobody will be able to question if Steve Kerr can coach players who aren't already superstars.  Steph Curry of course, but also Draymond Green who kept working with young players in the lean times.  Now Andre I. is back, adding his veteran leadership.  The team is the best mixture of youth, veterans and players at their peak since the championship years before KD joined.  And Klay returns maybe as early as next month.  They might be those magic Warriors again.

There's no doubt however that Steph Curry is magic again, with the first 50 point game of the NBA season in which he also had 10 assists.  Steph appears to have bulked up in the upper body, and can't be as easily backed down and thwarted by swarming defenses or individual bullying.  That was clear in just one play, in which an opponent bumped him hard but Curry bumped back, and then hit a 3.

Meanwhile the NFL is a real mess.  Not much about it makes sense, and players are making headlines for all the wrong reasons.  My hereditary team the Pittsburgh Steelers are an enigma, but they aren't alone in that, not even within their own conference.  All those teams are enigmas.  I was not even slightly surprised when the heavily favored Steelers lost to the Bengals.  Their Monday Night performance showed rust (their week+ off hit just as they were building momentum) but the question remains just how good they are.  I'm not sure it matters.  It's a depressing season so far.

And oh yeah, the Atlanta Institutional Racists won the World Series.   

Too Early But OK: From Giants to Warriors

 The San Francisco Giants season ended on a botched called third strike.  The team with the most wins in baseball was stuck in a five game series even before the League series, and before the World Series.  The rules will change, but not soon enough.  Another season like this is unlikely.

The Dodgers squeaked through but attrition set in, and they did not survive the next series.  Now there's a World Series in which I have reason to root for both teams to lose.  Rooting for Dusty Baker, once manager of the Giants and now of Houston, is the best I can muster, but really, I'm not interested.

Fortunately the NBA season has started and the Golden State Warriors won their first four games, losing their fifth in overtime.  They seem like a confident but hungry team that has a whiff of their first big winning teams.  We'll see.  But I was pleased to see Andre Igudala back on the Warriors, along with young players figuring it out and playing together.  Should be fun to watch.  Even before Klay returns.

Congratulations, S.F. Giants!

 Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants--2021 champions of the National League West.  They won it on the last day of the season, capping an incredible race to the finish with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Giants won 107 games, the most of any of the club's 136 seasons (including their dominant teams in New York early in the 20th century, although they played fewer games then.)  

The Dodgers also won on Sunday, so by winning their game, the Giants avoided a one game playoff for the division title.  In that scenario, win or lose, they were likely to meet the Dodgers twice in the post-season.  Now the Dodgers--with the second most wins in the major leagues this year, after the Giants--must win the Wild Card game on Wednesday, against a team that in the past three weeks has been even hotter than the Dodgers and Giants: the St. Louis Cardinals.

Post-season in any sport is often about momentum and injuries.  All three teams have momentum, though the Giants have been winning more on pitching recently, and the Dodgers on power hitting. And they all have injuries.  The Giants are missing their leading home run hitter and a defensive standout and veteran presence in Brandon Belt.  The Dodgers are initially without one of their ace pitchers, Clayton Kershaw.  Either could turn out to be the difference.

Though sports media has continued to downplay if not utterly ignore the Giants, the San Francisco team seems to have elements to provide a good chance of success: a dynamic mix of youth and veterans having great years, a skillful game manager, a lot of depth in general (if not at every position), and maybe that old magic as well.  But they do have weaknesses that could hurt them.  The Dodgers are powerful but brittle, and the Cards are either peaking at the right moment, or playing above their level.  Nobody knows how this is going to turn out.

But as one of the Giants' announcers said, this season is already a success.  Nothing will tarnish it.

By the way, it's been a particular pleasure for me to tune into Giants' games again and find the same crew--the best in baseball, I'm sure.  And I heard Jon Miller name check the announcer I grew up with--Bob Prince, Pittsburgh Pirates broadcaster--and one of his patented sayings, We had 'em all the way.

The First Place Giants--That's Right, It's 2021

 It's August 2021 and the San Francisco Giants are in first place.  This might come as a surprise to you, if you get your sports news from the ESPN site, which seems to believe the National League consists of the LA Dodgers and...the LA Dodgers.  They never feature a Giants game, unless of course they are playing the Dodgers, and then it's a Dodgers game.  

I'd suggest it's a product of embarrassment that their experts never even considered the Giants as a contender this year, except the chief skill of an expert is to expertly forget--and make you forget--that they ever made a wrong pick or prediction.  It's probably more that LA is Hollywood and they have all the stars.  They bought a few more recently.  LA and New York are the media centers, and everybody who counts works there and lives as nearby as they can afford.  San Francisco is not exactly a poor cousin, and has proven itself a baseball town.  But the names of their players aren't click bait.

After several years in the doldrums, the Giants started winning again this year, and even as they acquired new players, they kept winning.  There are basically only three players left from their last championship year, and they are all having very good years: Buster Posey may even be having a career year, and Brandons Crawford and Belt are hitting and fielding very well.  These guys experienced the heady years but I have to admire them for getting through the losing years, coming to the ball park every day and holding their heads up. 

The pitching staff is new and the rest of the team is pretty young and hungry.  There's a lot of platooning and pinch-hitting.  There may not be big stars but the roster is pretty high quality everywhere.  And the Giants are exciting again.  The young Yazstremski is among those who learned their game during the lean years, joined by players acquired through trades etc., which is how the Giants built their earlier championship teams.

Pitching and fielding are strong points again but the Giants lead the league in home runs, in a decidedly not home run hitter ball park.  That shocking stat alone should merit some coverage, but apparently sportswriters are so shocked they are in denial.   

The Dodgers have the established stars, and so are more vulnerable to injuries.  The Giants have youth with something to prove. The playoffs should be fun.

R.I.P. Kobe and Gigi

Death is personal.  We only know our own loss.  I count myself fortunate that I was a Lakers fan during Kobe's best years, and so I saw a lot of what he did on televised games. I taped many of the playoff games, both from the Shaq era and the Gasol era, and once in awhile I watch them again.

Of course his life was cut short, and it's even harder to see this happen to a child. But while he lived Kobe had an amazing life, and it looks like his daughter Gigi was having a particularly happy life recently.  Their lives were full.  Kobe was a mentor to many.  Now their deaths will teach as well.

May they rest in peace.

Diaspora Cheers

In the first quarter of today's game the Arizona Cardinals punted, and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson caught the ball at the 15 yard line.  As he made his first move and blew by tacklers the crowd started to roar.  Johnson headed down the right sideline with blockers in front, the crowd roaring all the way.  And then he was in the end zone for a touchdown, and the camera panned back to show the fans waving Steelers pennants in what seemed like all the expensive seats close to the field.

So what is so unusual about this?  That this game was not played in Pittsburgh but in Arizona.

This is an extreme example of a phenomenon that for the Steelers is decades old, but it still keeps happening.  There are other teams who have vocal fans in the stands at away games, sometimes outshouting the home team fans.  There were venues where that was true for the Golden State Warriors, for example.  But no team has had more fans in other cities over a longer time than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are popular with football fans for their style of play, and their winning ways since the 1970s.  But there are two more prominent factors in this phenomenon.  First, the lifelong devotion of Pittsburgh sports fans.  Second, the diaspora.

That, too, started in the 1970s and accelerated in the 80s, when the memories of those legendary Steelers teams were fresh.  The steel mills closed, industrial jobs collapsed, people had to move away.  The city of Pittsburgh lost about half of its population.

But wherever they went, Pittsburghers stayed Steelers fans.  And that's continued as those leaving the area are more likely retirees looking for someplace warmer.  They are joined in places like Arizona by remaining Pittsburghers with the income to make a winter trip to a warm place, and catch a Steelers game while they are there.

Some remain Pittsburgh Pirates fans, too.  I saw this myself at a Pirates game in San Francisco a couple of seasons ago, when the Pirates were not so great. Pirates fans showed up in their team gear, sporting jerseys with the names of past Pirates greats, like Stargell and Clemente.

Up here in far northern California, I don't see many Giants or Niners caps or bumper stickers.  We've even got Seahawks fans around.  But my eye is attuned to Steelers and Pirates caps, shirts and bumper stickers.  And I see them here.  If I engage these folks (as I did a few at the Giants game), most of them once lived in the Pittsburgh area.   It has a kind of melancholy beauty, this loyalty far from home.

As for loyalty, I still wear my Golden State Warriors cap.  In the past, when it came to the NBA, I tended to switch loyalties according to how exciting the team was--from Magic's Lakers to Michael's Bulls to Kobe's Lakers.  But not anymore.  From first to last, I'm sticking with the Warriors.  I may not be following their games as closely this year, but I'm not rooting for anyone else.  I'll wait till next year.

Achilles

This year's NBA finals bordered on the mythological.  The series was so "physical" that it was more like war.  And the Golden State Warriors saw two of their heroes go down with grievous wounds.

When Klay Thompson went down in the sixth game, it was the most consequential.  After that, Golden State had almost no chance to prevail.

But it was Kevin Durant whose injury was something out of myth.  All year he resembled no mythological figure more than Achilles, a complex and troubled hero who seemed, like Achilles, to be sulking in his tent, nursing his grievances.  He had been the MVP of the previous two finals, but even that did not make him happy.

But in the playoffs he was superb, unstoppable.  And like Achilles, his vulnerable spot was his lower leg--his calf and then, of all poetic fates, his ankle.  The Greek Achilles' vulnerability in fact gave the name to the muscle that Durant injured, ending his season and next season, threatening his career: the Achilles tendon.

Now Achilles has abandoned the Warriors, and will heal his wounds in somebody else's tent, far away.

Golden State is rebuilding a team, and so far it is a young one.  Already some sports wag predicts the team will miss the playoffs altogether next year.  But in my opinion that could be the best possible fate for the Warriors.

The truth is that the Golden State Warriors of  recent years ended with their four game sweep of Cleveland to win the title last year.  This past season was a long and ugly stretch of misery, for the team and for its fans.  All we heard all year was how hard it was to slog through the season, and only the playoffs mattered.  The suspense of Achilles' decision on whether or not to depart, even though months away, was a contributing factor to this misery, thanks especially to social media and 24/7 sports bloviating.

This team played too much basketball for five years.  It needs an ordinary season to refocus on how it used to play regular season games: with joy.  There was no joy in 2018-19, or very little of it.  The basketball was often sloppy, Draymond Green was overweight, other players (including Steph Curry) seeming off in space somewhere at times. I suspect if Durant had really been undecided, this sloppy exhausted slog played a part in his choosing to leave for the blank slate of Brooklyn.

The ugliness of the season continued in the playoffs, especially when the Warriors could not seem to win at home--an unsettling reversal, so out of character.

Now the Warriors inaugurate a big new arena, and have the opportunity for a fresh start.  Perhaps they can learn to play with joy again, and fans can enjoy the season.

Finalities

It wasn't a devastating loss--it was just devastation.  In game 6, Klay Thompson was hot--he had 30 points by the third quarter--and the Warriors finally had the momentum to take the game and force a seventh.  Then incredibly he went down, with what turned out to be a serious knee injury.

Even then, Steph Curry--now the absolute focus of two and usually three defenders-- could have given Golden State the lead and possibly the win with a three point attempt towards the end of the game.  That he didn't make the shot will provide more ammunition for those commentators who dispute his greatness.  But in the long run it was merciful.  It saved the devastated Warriors from a long and certain defeat in game 7.

It is predicted that Klay Thompson will not play basketball again until early next spring.  The Warriors might have survived as an elite team without KD, because they were an elite team before he came.  But they cannot reach those heights without Klay Thompson.

The Warriors will have an interesting off-season, but their choices are not good.  They may lose KD or Thompson or both to free agency, and start to scramble for players to rebuild a team.  It seems likely however that they will sign Thompson and it seems more likely than it did a month ago that they will sign KD.  In which case they will be tying up a lot of money for two players who will not play for most if not all of next season, limiting their ability to pay for replacements. And this will be their first season in a new, larger arena, in the city of San Francisco.

Steve Kerr jokingly wondered if the Warriors could just take the next season off, but there's some rueful truth there. The Warriors have played more games than any other team over the past five seasons. Someone figured that they played the equivalent of six and a half seasons in those five years.  Analysts will gab all summer about whether the wear and tear of five seasons in a row with long playoff runs contributed to these devastating injuries.  Missing the playoffs next year may be a mercy to the players still standing.

This was to be the season of seasons, with a starting roster of five All-Stars.  Those five didn't play together at all in the Finals, and all five were healthy enough to play together for all of 12 minutes since the first round.  They ended their playoffs with two of the five on the floor--possibly the only two who will be in the starting lineup to begin next season, and that's if the Warriors keep their sanity and resist the media analysts' advice to trade Draymond.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors had the highest shooting percentage in the playoffs, and the highest 3 point shot percentage.  Even after losing two star starters, they came within a missed three-pointer of taking the Finals to the seventh game.  They went down a champion.

Update: The Lakers big trade is only the beginning of teams strengthening themselves.  Right now I feel some relief that I will not be tempted to listen to those basketball commentators, especially the most annoying.  What I mostly feel is that I hope the Warriors don't make the playoffs next year.  This has been an ugly, distracted year that might have been worth it for a championship, but now I'm thinking maybe not.  That's not the most important thing.  So I renew my wish that instead we get a season in which once again the Warriors play with joy.

KD

And then the story changed.  The ultimate outcome of the finals may not, nor the aftermath of the season.  But for now, the 12 minutes that Kevin Durant played in game 5 on Monday have changed everything else--for the Finals, for the Warriors, for the NBA.

It was a game time decision that Durant start the game, and he looked his brilliant self, contributing 11 points.  But then incredibly he sustained another injury, this one even more serious, and potentially one of the most serious injuries a basketball player can suffer.  An MRI will show the extent of his Achilles tendon injury, but a late report says that the Warriors fear it is the worst: a tear.  If that is confirmed, it is unlikely KD will play at all next season.  It is an injury that has ended careers.

When he was hurt and had to go back to the locker room, some in the Toronto crowd cheered.  Steph Curry literally left the game to go back with Durant.

The Warriors were ahead and increased their lead, but the Raptors kept coming, and had a six point lead with 3 minutes to play.  Curry and Klay Thompson hit 3s, and the defense in the last minute denied Toronto from winning the game and the championship at least 3 times.  The Warriors won by 1 point, 106-105.

Update: This is the best account of the game I've seen so far.

Now the Warriors return to Oracle Arena for game 6.  Their place in history is already unassailable, but they'd prefer to not host the Raptors' championship ceremony as the last moment at Oracle. In any case, they will at least get a chance for a properly raucous farewell to Oakland.  As for the game, the math doesn't changed.  Durant's 11 points were crucial, as were Boogie Cousins's resurgent 14.  Those 11 points will have to come from somewhere.

But something beyond the numbers changed.  The Warriors have the inspiration (win it for K) and the anger (that applause in TO.)  The Oracle fans will be mightily aroused, and after years of mixed emotions, KD will be a hero to Warrior fans.  Forever.

Fans along with everyone else know that when it came time to make the decision for game 5, KD could have said no.  He could have played it safe for his own career, and gone into free agency as the player every team wants to have.

But he didn't.  That alone is the kind of inspiration that can change a series.  It will certainly change game 6.  Especially as all of this--including the support of fans, his teammates and the Warriors organization--may mean KD stays a Warrior.

The story has changed, and if the Warriors lose, it will more clearly be because KD is not playing, and the Raptors championship will always have that asterisk.  If the Warriors win game 6, and then game 7, it will be because they are inspired to new heights to win it for KD.

Finality

When injured Klay Thompson was not in the lineup for the third game of the NBA finals, the Warriors needed a career game from Steph Curry and a return to All Star form by Boogie Cousins.  Curry had that career game offensively, scoring 47, but Cousins scored fewer than 10.

To win the fourth game with Thompson back in the lineup, the Warriors needed the Splash Brothers to excel, which they did, with a total of 55 points, but once again they needed a 20 point game from Cousins, which didn't come close to happening.  Nobody else contributed much, except Kevon Looney who was unexpectedly back from his injury.

This is no criticism of Cousins, just back from a long injury, but that's the math.  Those points were needed.  But in the end, those two games were decided by Toronto's superior play both on defense and offense.  On both sides of the ball they found a formula, and they did to Golden State what they did to Milwaukee in the Eastern finals.  Once they find the formula, they are relentless.  In game 4, the Warriors did well for the first half, but were overwhelmed in a disastrous third quarter.

Now they are down 3-1, and only one team has come back from that to win the championship, and no team has won it after losing their first two games at home. I believe the Warriors will play their hearts out in Toronto on Monday, if only to ensure a proper farewell to their Oakland fans in the last game to be played there--win or lose, the 6th game of the Finals.  But being held to 92 points does not bode well for winning game 5, nor did their evident exhaustion.

And that's with or without Kevin Durant.  As of this moment it seems doubtful he will play, as he hasn't had a successful practice.  But even if he does play, a dominant performance or even the 25 points (with the Splash Brothers adding another 50 or so) and a return to defensive form that might make the difference, none of that is likely.  (Although it must be said, that a great player's first game back from an injury is sometimes very good, and it is after that adrenalin is gone that the second game back is lackluster.)

If the Warriors lose on Monday, game four will have been the last game a Warriors team plays at Oracle Arena.  And that's not the only finality.  It is possible that this will end as it seemed it probably would: with a team of 5 All-Stars triumphing to win the championship.  But it is very unlikely.  What is likely is that this is the end of this particular team.  Cousins almost certainly won't be back, and Durant only slightly less certainly will go elsewhere.  Andre may well retire, as well as Shaun Livingston.  It is even possible that Klay Thompson will go elsewhere, though that's unlikely.  But who knows what effect losing (or winning) the championship will have.

All of this demonstrates just how hard it is to repeat as champions.  So much has contributed to the situation the Warriors are now in, including the loss of concentration evident during the season.  Two more victories would have given the Dubs home court, and a first game victory could have changed things.

But to win a championship even once requires the luck to avoid key injuries at key times to your team, while hitting your opponents.  The Warriors have battled through injuries, but they've been lucky with the timing of them--until now.

Teams that repeatedly win championships often come to a surprising end.  I think especially of the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, who after championship seasons thought they were going to be invulnerable by adding two All-Stars to the roster, Karl Malone and Gary Payton.  They blundered through, and might have turned the corner until Malone got hurt in the playoffs, and then it was like a house of cards.

At this point, winning this championship would elevate this Warriors team to all-time heroic status.  But even if they lose, their accomplishments have been historic.  And win or lose, it would be great to see the Golden State Warriors back playing with joy.

Game 2: Playing Like Champions (with Updates for 3)

Steph Curry was visibly ailing.  Andre went down hard.  Klay Thompson has a hamstring issue and leaves the game.  Kevon Looney's shoulder is injured and he goes out.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors played with the heart of a champion, and discovered their game with a 20-0 run in the second and third quarters.  A healthy Toronto Raptors team couldn't keep up.  They came close but the Warriors prevailed to take one of the first two road games, and for the moment take away home court, 109-104.

Before his injury, Klay Thompson was finally having a hot-shooting Klay game.  Curry had some treatment and began to find his game towards the end of the second quarter.  The Dubs started DeMarcus Cousins, and he got better as the game went on.  Draymond was aggressive, Andre was inspired--he took and hit the open 3 that iced the game, after the Dubs went dry for the last 5 minutes of the game. Quinn Cook hit three 3s, and every member of the bench contributed points except the injured Looney, and only two bench players didn't play.

This was not only a gutty win, it was the Warriors discovering how to beat Toronto.  They saw success with Cousins and Andrew Bogut, countering the Raptors' bigs. Cousins' 11 points is apt to grow.  Double and triple teams try to wear Curry down, but he usually wears them down to have big shots and big assists late in the game. The motion offense and transition defense work against Toronto as they did against Houston and Portland.

But a lot will depend on the injury report.  Thompson and Looney will undergo tests on Monday.  If they are ready to play on Wednesday, and Cousins doesn't have a physical setback, then the Warriors are in good shape.  It should soon be known whether KD will play.  At this moment it is possible the dream lineup--the five all-stars-- will be on the court together.  That doesn't guarantee victory, but it comes closer.

On the other hand, it's hard to see how the Warriors survive without Klay or KD or Andre.  But as Steph Curry said at his presser, Strength in Numbers isn't just a slogan--it's a program that begins in training camp.  And the heart of a champion extends to the whole Golden State Warriors roster.  

Update Mon.: Looney is out for the rest of the year with a shoulder fracture.  Klay Thompson is "questionable" for Wednesday, depending on how things go over the next two days.  No word yet on Andre or KD.

Update Tues: KD is out for Wednesday, Klay is still questionable, Andre is ailing but likely to play.  Consensus is building that this game is Toronto's big chance--if the Warriors win, it will be considered amazing.

Finals Game 1: Questions and Answers

Update: The Answers

Rest or rust?  For the Warriors: rust.  Defensive intensity suffered, especially in the first half, plus too many turnovers.  They stayed in the game but ultimately lost the first game of a Finals series for the first time, by nine points to a Toronto team at the top of its game.

How good is Toronto?  At their best, pretty damn good. The Unlikely Hero of this game for Toronto was Pascal Siakam, who picked a good night to have a career game, scoring 32 points on 14 of 17 shooting.  While offensively the Warriors weren't bad--Steph Curry scored 34, the bench added some points--Toronto as a team played better.

Boogie Cousins played six minutes, showed some signs, but didn't score.  KD didn't play, and almost certainly won't play in game 2 on Sunday.  Which, if not a must win for Golden State, is a necessary win to get control of the series.  Andre is playing hurt, and is not contributing much to the offense.  He is however expected to play Sunday.

I'm guessing here, but I expect Shaun Livingston to play more minutes in game 2, if he's able.  The Toronto defense is open to the kind of midrange shots that are his bread and butter.


Questions:

The NBA Finals Hype is on.  Early money on the Warriors has met counter-expertise favoring Toronto.  Someone claims Kevin Durant has played his last game as a Warrior; KD promptly flew to Toronto.  The first game is Thursday, the second is Sunday.

How good is Toronto?  After being manhandled for two and a half games by the Bucks, they found a defense that worked like a charm.  They won four straight.  Was it their team, or a weakness in the Bucks unique to them?

Can Golden State play as well as they did in their last five plus games?  The long, long layoff helps with healing, and with rust.  This is their fifth straight finals, and their first beginning on the road.  (They lost home court by a game.)

Klay Thompson sacrificed offense for defense in the Western Conference finals.  He may have to do it again.  Is Andre healthy enough to play his shutdown defense?  Can Draymond keep up his pace, and his career-best play?

These two teams both play like teams. They both can play great defense.   There may be unlikely heroes in each game.  The possible returns of Boogie Cousins and KD are big unknowns (although neither will in the first game.) If they do they probably won't play big minutes.  But they could be crucial minutes.

But the series likely comes down to Steph Curry.  Can he match and surpass his incredible run in the western conference series?  He's going to attract all the defensive attention from Toronto.  Can they stop him?  Can he stay hot?  And most of all, can he stay healthy?  None of this can be known until the games are played.

If Golden State wins the first game, they are in very good shape.  If they win one of the first two, they are in good shape.  All other things (all other ankles) being equal.

Historic

The Golden State Warriors swept the Portland Trailblazers in the western conference championship round to earn their fifth straight appearance in the NBA Finals, the first time any team has done that since the 1960s, when the Boston Celtics dominated the other dozen or so teams.

To win this game, Steph Curry and Draymond Green became the first teammates to achieve triple doubles in a playoff game.  Curry scored more than 35 points for the fifth game in a row. His average over the four games was the highest of any player ever in a four game sweep.  He had 7 three pointers in the overtime victory.

It was only a two point victory, so any of the bench players could have made the difference as well.  Alfonso McKinnie and Kevon Looney in particular played big in big moments, and kept up the defensive intensity in the fourth and overtime. Three Blazers players scored over 25 points; only Curry did for the Warriors.  It was a dazzling team effort.

Consider this was a Warriors team that started McKinnie and J. Bell on Monday night.  A defensive stand without the injured Andre seemed impossible to some.  But they got it done.  They won both games on the road, and their third in a row comeback from 17 points down in the second half.

This was an historic series for the Warriors, and an exciting one.  Now the Warriors have 9 days before their next game for their ailing players to heal. (Andre seems likely to be ready, Boogie Cousins might be; the big question mark is still KD.)  The Eastern series is 2-1 at the moment, so the winner will have played at least one more game than the Warriors needed to.  Neither Eastern contender has been to the Finals.

WCF Game 3 Questions and Answers

There is no question about KD and Boogie Cousins: they will not be playing in Portland; KD for one isn't making the trip.  So the questions for the third game are: will the Portland back court stars catch fire, as they are more than capable of doing, and will the Warriors shoot well enough to counter?  Or will they continue to be somewhat stifled by the Warrior defense?

The Warriors had a second game letdown for the first half, but came out burning in the third quarter, and won the last 5 minutes of the game.  Portland had a 15 point lead at halftime and an 8 point lead late in the fourth, but the Dubs owned the stretch.  Steph Curry was big for the entire game, and Klay hit the crucial shots in the fourth.  The rest was defense and team playmaking, and it was beautiful to watch.

The Blazers did so much right that Steve Kerr suggested they outplayed the Dubs.  In particular they shot a high percentage of threes--perhaps an unsustainably high percentage.  And they still lost.

The third game is pretty much a must win for Portland.  The likely path is for one of their stars to go wild and score 40 plus points.  If that happens, the return of KD begins to assume some urgency.

The Answers:

In the third game, the Golden State defense once again smothered the Portland back court, and while the rest of the team gave them a first half lead, the Warriors dismantled the Blazers defense in the second half.  Draymond Green, who had a triple double before the fourth quarter began, successfully pushed and ran the offense while Steph Curry attacked from everywhere on the court.  The result was an 11 point victory, and a 3-0 lead in the series.  Curry scored 36, with 6 threes.

Andre Iguodala left the game in the third quarter with a variously described "soreness" and will get an MRI Sunday.  So the question is the extent of his injury, for he is a key element.  The Warriors can't keep losing major players. Some of those looking ahead to the finals presumably against the Bucks believe Kevin Durant's return is necessary to victory.  Losing Andre would be potentially fatal as well.  But that's looking too far ahead now.  There's a game to play Monday.

WCF Game 1: Questions and Answers

Golden State got two pieces of bad news prior to the first game of the Western Conference Finals tonight.  First was their opponent: the Portland Trailblazers, who pose a bigger challenge than the Denver Nuggets.  The second was that Kevin Durant would not play the first game, and probably not the second on Thursday.  Boogie Cousins is also not close to returning, though he is able to run.

So what could have been all but a sure thing for a focused Warriors team now suggests questions.  Will there be a letdown from their 6th game victory against the Rockets?  Will the bench over-perform again, or revert to its season averages?  Can the Dubs match the energy that the Blazers are likely to bring? They are likely to make the defensive adjustments the Rockets failed to make. The first game is huge.

Update: The Answers

One question I forgot to ask: how will Portland's energy level be, after a game 7 in high-altitude Denver on Saturday?  The answer to that seems to have been: not that good.  Nor was the defensive preparation.

On the other hand, Golden State suffered no letdown in front of the home crowd, and their energy level was high.  The bench performed very well, adding to the lead at the start of the fourth quarter especially.  Steph Curry hit 9 three pointers, tying his personal playoff best, Klay played stellar defense and dropped 28 points.  The result: The Warriors win going away, 116-94.

But as Draymond Green said after the game, it only gets harder from here.  Portland gets to adjust its defense and can up its intensity in game 2 on Thursday, which is pretty close to a must-win for them, especially because KD may be back on the floor in Portland.  For Golden State, winning the first game was huge.

One for the Ages

It would be hard to overestimate the dimensions of the Golden State Warriors win over the Houston Rockets in the sixth game, taking the second round series 4-2.  It was a brilliant team effort with brilliant individual performances, including Steph Curry, who was scoreless and had 3 fouls in the first half, and scored 33 points in the second half, including 23 in the fourth quarter--his most points in a fourth quarter in his career--and 16 points in the last 4 minutes without a miss to end the game.  This in a closeout game, on the road, without one of the best players of all time in Kevin Durant.  Not to mention already without Boogie Cousins to force the Rockets into going big.

Instead it was Devon Looney who forced the Rockets into going big, with his rebounds and buckets in the paint, and so opening the floor for a hot Klay and a hot Andre from 3.  Curry battled a swarming defense and finally picked it apart, swooping to the basket or drilling impossible threes.  He did this still not fully healed from his dislocated finger, which he injured again in this game.

All the bullshit about Curry, about Klay and Draymond and the Warriors in general now fades.  Instead of facing a do or die seventh game, the team rests and waits to see who they play in the western conference final.  Steph is likely rooting for Portland and his brother Seth.  But probably every other Warrior is rooting for Denver, a less experienced team that the Dubs have buried in their last two meetings.  It is possible if not likely that Durant will be ready for that series.  And latest word is that Boogie Cousins might be, too.

The Warriors won also because every one of the bench players came through, not just because they collectively doubled their highest point total of the season, but because they played the Warriors game, were tenacious on defense and within the system on offense.  Coach Kerr said after the game that maybe he should have played them more in the series.

Speaking of Kerr and the coaching staff, I erred in saying neither team had a coaching advantage in terms of in-game adjustments.  At halftime, the Dubs made at least two crucial adjustments.  One was either equipment or Curry's own experiments, but somehow Curry found a way to deal with his injured finger.  The other was an offensive adjustment by the coaching staff that confused Rockets defenders, giving Curry shots near the basket and in the paint, in addition to his threes.  The Warriors always had the better offensive system.  But Coach Kerr, his staff and his players made crucial adjustments to win the second half and especially the fourth quarter.

I wrote that the Warriors had their best shot at the Rockets in the sixth game, partly because the Rockets might be assuming this game and anticipating the seventh game.  Now the Warriors must avoid a similar temptation: to look beyond the next series to the championship finals.  They must know now what they risk by extending a series with less than championship play.

After the fifth game, the chatter was mostly about KD going down, overlooking a heroic fourth quarter for Steph Curry and the Warriors team.  After the sixth game, there's little else to talk about (although Houston may face a coaching change.)  In playoff history, this game was indeed one for the ages.

One More for the Ages

The injury of Kevin Durant could hardly have come at a worse time for the Golden State Warriors.  He will not play the remainder of the Rockets series, which resumes in Houston Friday with the Dubs needing one more win to advance to the third round.

Durant has been having record-setting playoff production, and his loss subtracts a minimum of 20 points to as many as 50 points a game from the Warrior attack.  He is indefensible, especially by the Rockets, and his defense is also important.

I doubt there is precedent for an NBA team to lose two starters and still win a championship.  But if any team can do it, it is the Golden State Warriors.  I'll go against conventional wisdom and suggest that their best chance of winning the series is the next game in Houston.  It will be difficult for the Rockets not to be looking beyond that game at a seventh game showdown in Oakland.  It will be an opportunity for the Dubs to show Houston what it is not prepared for.

The Warriors can make NBA history.  Or they can close out their time at Oracle Arena with a bittersweet and season-ending evening.