Semis

The Indiana Fever and the Golden State Valkyries took their first round WNBA playoff series to three games.  The Fever lost but the Valkyries won, and go on to the semi-finals.

There are lots and lots of questions about that third game between Indiana and Las Vegas, but there seems to me to be one factor that may have been decisive in both games: fatigue.

There is a quick turnaround in this first round of two days. Both the Valkyries and the Wings expended a lot of energy in game 2 in Dallas, scoring 100 or more when the game went into overtime.  After getting thoroughly drubbed in the first game, Dallas had to go all out to win that game.

Back in Ballhalla for game 3, Golden State did not play their best against the Wings.  They went cold and allowed a 20-0 run, which few teams survive.  They were down 16 in the third quarter.  But they are a deep team and Dallas is not.  By the fourth quarter, the Wings were gassed.  In the crucial last few minutes several shots were short, which suggests fatigue.  Golden State had fresher legs and they prevailed in the closing minutes.

You can make a case that something similar happened in Las Vegas.  The Fever--and Caitlin Clark in particular--expended immense energy to dominate game 2 in Indiana.  Just two days later, they had flown to Vegas and were missing shots they usually make.  In particular, Clark and Kelsey Mitchell were missing threes.  Clark, who set all time records in that second game, did not dominate in the third.  A'ja Wilson, the definition of a prima donna, who can bulldoze over opponents and still get the call, prevailed for the Aces.  The Fever's depth is questionable, but in any case they rely on their starters, and they may have been worn down.  The defending champion Aces' experience may have helped them deal with distributing their energies.

Now the Fever go home, where an offseason of changes is likely.  There are many who want the coach's head, and there are questions of whether the Fever can financially afford their mighty trio of Clark, Mitchell and Boston, and at what cost to a deeper bench.

Golden State now hosts those same champion Aces in the semi-finals.  The shock of the first round was New York defeating Minnesota, with the best record this season by far, in two games.  Now the Valkyries are the winningest team left.  The Aces are as experienced as the Vals are not, and they are peaking for the playoffs.  The refs are always a particular wild card in the WNBA.  But if Golden State can get past the Aces, they stand a very good chance of winning the championship in only their second year in the league.

Update: Playing at home, Golden State won their first game against Las Vegas in the semi-final round, 71-60.  It's a big advantage, for most of the time the team that wins the first game in a 5 game series wins it all.  The second game, also at Ballhalla, is on Wednesday.  Gabby Williams was the Valkyries star of the game, but once again their depth wore away at a tired and depleted team.  

Playoffs

 

The WNBA playoffs have begun and both teams I follow are in it.  In many ways they are very different teams.  The Indiana Fever have big stars and personalities.  The Golden State Valkyries seem almost anonymous at times.  The Fever had two players on the FIBA championship US team, the Vals had none (though two played for France.)   The Fever have perhaps the most potent offense in the league, while the Vals have the best defense.  Yet the Fever can defend, especially with steals and blocks, and the Vals shoot 3s at high efficiency.

The Fever can look cohesive and invincible and in the next game look lost.  Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell are wonders to behold.  But though the Vals aren't as glamorous (except in the Bay Area) they have the second best record in the league. They are so deep that after the FIBA break they rattled off 6 wins in a row, 2 of them back-to-backs without their two most productive starters.  They lost one and then came back against LA when their 3s weren't falling to win by a point in the final minutes.  They look ready.

They looked even readier when they blew out Dallas in the first playoff home game in the team's short history.  Leading by 30 points most of the way, they scored over 100 while running their patented smothering defense, spoiling a fine debut by Paige Bueckers.  

Meanwhile, the Fever looked pretty bad against Vegas.  Kelsey Mitchell saw her record-setting consecutive games of 20 or more points broken, while A'ja Wilson scored 38.  In fact no Fever player scored 20, and they lost by 17.  

 The Fever can look overwhelming, but they can be fragile.  Coaching is a question.  Nobody questions the coaching of the Vals, and their game can appear boring--at least until they unleash a fearsome flurry of 3s, or fierce reserve Kailyn Chen goes on a tear.  They may be the more resilient team, and at the moment appear more likely to go deep into the playoffs.  But you can never count Caitlin Clark out.  She and Mitchell can each carry a team.

The MLB playoffs are upcoming, and neither team I follow is in them.  The San Francisco Giants have not been much fun; every time I check them out they seem to be fielding an entirely different team.  The Pittsburgh Pirates however have a lively and often impressive team, and seem poised to make some noise next year, well beyond their slightly above .500 this season, especially if Paul Skenes bounces back and they can stay healthier than they did this year. Fueling optimism was how they ended the season, with lots of wins, both in high scoring games with lots of home runs and in tight and low scoring games, when pitching as well as timely hitting and fundamentals are important.

They're developing some stars beyond Skenes, with Oneil Cruz joining the Pirates elite of Barry Bonds and Andrew McCutchen in hitting 20 homers and stealing 20 or more bases for three consecutive seasons.  Brandon Lowe hit 35 homers--first time in awhile that's happened.   The Pirates as a team hit more homers by the All-Star break this season than the entire previous season. Nick Gonzales hit above .300.  And the team stayed in the Wild Card race well into September.  

These Pirates play an exciting style, with speed (stealing bases, beating out bunts, cutting off hits) and variety.  They have good young starting pitching, and their relief pitching improved towards the end of the season.  From the very promising newcomer Konnor Griffin (whose homer won the final game of the season) to the wily veteran Ryan Reynolds, one of several hitters with high RBI percentages, this could well be a team worth watching come next spring.  As for this year's MLB playoffs, I'll pass.