Cabinet Watch

Today, PE Obama appoints General Eric Shinseki as Veterans Affairs Secretary. Apart from the brilliant multiple significance of this appointment (here's Ambinder, here's me), it was a Surprise.

More surprises in store, since nobody's sure what's coming next. Especially since (Politico reports) Governor Kathleen Sibelius has taken herself out of the running. She was among the favorites for several posts. According to the Wall Street Journal (which has been right but also spectacularly wrong on appointments), a new job may be created for someone to supervise Climate Crisis and energy policy across departments, and that is a factor in who might be appointed to Environment, Energy, etc.

The Journal thinks Interior is between Arizona Rep. Raul M. Grijalva and former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber. As I've mentioned before, it's policy vs. executive experience, but there's no reason they both can't get Cabinet jobs. (Kitzhaber at Transportation, for example.) Similarly, this HuffPost columnist makes a strong case for Grijalva as a progressive environmentalist, also good on Native American and environmental problems. But a lot of what he says also makes Grijalva a good EPA choice. And there are other White House posts for policymakers in these overlapping areas. Maybe we'll know more on Monday, but again, I'm hoping for some voices from the progressive side (like Grijalva) in the new appointments.

As for who replaces Hillary in NY... I've got increasingly mixed feelings about Al Giordano at the Field, but his piece on why Caroline Kennedy would be a great as well as popular and sentimental choice is pretty convincing.

The Great Recession

Officials finally admit the U.S. is in recession--and has been for a year (talk about a lagging indicator.) Then Friday's job report was a thunderbolt: not only a loss of 533,000 jobs in November and other terrible numbers for the month, but figures for the previous few months revised to show hundreds of thousands of more jobs lost than admitted before.

Together with the grim and grinchy financial sector (though on the unemployment news, the stock market naturally went up), this adds up to something economists and squawking heads don't have a name for--worse than a regular recession, not quite the Depression. So I'm calling it the Great Recession for now.

At least it focused some congressional minds on saving the U.S. auto industry from contributing several million more unemployed. Bridge loans are in the works--if not yet bridges to better companies, at least bridges to the Obama administration and a Congress that can get something more lasting done.

Meanwhile, the Obama transition seems focused on the next round of Cabinet appointments, rumored to be Environment, Energy, Agriculture and Interior. With announcements due perhaps Monday, what's interesting is both the complete mystery about who will be appointed, and (maybe not coincidentally) the lack of big (or at least well-known) names. About the only one with any sizzle is Kathleen Sebelius, and she's mentioned as a possibility for Energy or Agriculture, or Something.

Absent now from the speculated possibilities for EPA is Robert Kennedy, Jr., who took himself out of the running for Hillary's New York Senate seat. Possibly because cousin Caroline Kennedy is interested.

Well, I'd really like to see Robert Kennedy at EPA or Energy. These appointments are opportunities to go left of center, for better balance overall. There needs to be an Asian at cabinet level, too, if at all possible. At least VPE Joe Biden picked a notorious liberal economist for his economics advisor: Jared Bernstein. But with so little to go on, speculation is pointless. And even more important, no fun.

The World According to Zakaria (and other matters)

When I commented on Obama's foreign policy appointments, among others, over at Dreaming Up Daily, I forgot to mention this Newsweek article by Fareed Zakaria, which takes a broad look at America's place in the world and Obama's considerable foreign policy challenges. It's well worth reading it all, but here at least is his conclusion:

"President-elect Obama has powers of his own, too. I will not exaggerate the importance of a single personality, but Obama has become a global symbol like none I can recall in my lifetime. Were he to go to Tehran, for example, he would probably draw a crowd of millions, far larger than any mullah could dream of. Were his administration to demonstrate in its day-to-day conduct a genuine understanding of other countries' perspectives and an empathy for the aspirations of people around the world, it could change America's reputation in lasting ways.

This is a rare moment in history. A more responsive America, better attuned to the rest of the world, could help create a new set of ideas and institutions—an architecture of peace for the 21st century that would bring stability, prosperity and dignity to the lives of billions of people. Ten years from now, the world will have moved on; the rising powers will have become unwilling to accept an agenda conceived in Washington or London or Brussels. But at this time and for this man, there is a unique opportunity to use American power to reshape the world. This is his moment. He should seize it."

Meanwhile, Rachel Maddow is crusading on behalf of the auto companies versus the banks, on the basis of class bias, and she may be having some effect. After mentioning it on one show, showcasing it on another, some Senators were noticeably noting the discrepancy between the hundreds of billions in blank checks to the banks, and the fuss over a fraction of that for auto manufacturers. Senator Chris Dodd was like a wild man.

One irony is that money went to the banks so they would lend it out but they aren't doing that--and because they aren't lending to businesses, let alone consumers, some 40% fewer people are buying cars, creating the need for the Big Three to beg for loans from the federal government.

Late Thursday, ABC was reporting that congressional Dems sent a letter to the Bushites telling them they'd better carve out some chump change for the auto companies from the $700 billion bailout fund. Or General Motors could be gone before Obama gets to the White House.

Economist Paul Krugman has been using the word "scared" lately when confronted with economic prospects. He's especially worried about the unemployment numbers, that we could be losing a half million jobs a month. The first test will be Friday's monthly employment report. You may know the numbers by the time you read this--how close to 450,000 are they? We could hope he's been studying the Great Depression a little too closely.

Update: Seems Krugman was a bit conservative. Official job loss (so it's more that this) was 533,000 in November.

Fast Times in a Slow Economy

Things are happening fast, as Monday saw not only P-E Obama's press conference introducing four members of his economic team, but a statement by President Bush and current Treasury Sec Paulsen emphasizing coordination on the economy between the incoming and outgoing administrations.

Obama holds another press conference Tuesday--a few hours from now--but I haven't seen speculation on whether he'll be announcing more appointments. Maybe his budget director, who wasn't there Monday?

The impression left by the press conference Monday, especially combined with Obama's radio/YouTube address Saturday and his transition team's public statements Sunday, is that Obama saw a dangerous void and is moving quickly to fill it. The Times of London saw it that way: Barack Obama effectively took control of the US economy - two months before he takes office - by declaring that his plan to confront the financial crisis "starts today". As he unveiled his new economic team, Mr Obama struck a very different note from the diffident election winner of three weeks ago who stressed that America is led by only "one president at a time". Today, he appeared fully aware that the US and global markets are looking to him, not President Bush, for solutions to the deepening crisis.

The U.S. stock market responded with the largest two day gains in decades, and Asian markets were following the upward movement this morning. Obama's choices also got pretty strong reviews.

What I found fascinating were some of the things Obama said about his appointees as he introduced them--things that aren't usually part of their media descriptions. For instance...

On Timothy Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury: “Growing up partly in Africa and having lived and worked throughout Asia; having served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs – one of many roles in the international arena; and having studied both Chinese and Japanese, Tim understands the language of today’s international markets in more ways than one.”

On Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council : “As a thought leader, Larry has urged us to confront the problems of income inequality and the middle class squeeze, consistently arguing that the key to a strong economy is a strong and growing middle class. This idea is the core of my own economic philosophy and will be the foundation for all of my economic policies.”

On Christina Romer, director of the Council of Economic Advisors, usually described simply as an expert on the Great Depression. Obama added that she's also an expert on the subsequent economic expansion. “Christina has also done groundbreaking research on many of the topics our Administration will confront – from tax policy to fighting recessions. And her clear-eyed, independent analyses have received praise from both conservative and liberal thinkers alike. I look forward to her wise counsel in the White House.”

As Domestic Policy Advisor, Melody Barnes will be “working hand-in-hand with my economic policy team to chart a course to economic recovery. An integral part of that course will be health care reform – and she will work closely with my Secretary of Health and Human Services on that issue...As executive vice president for policy at the Center for American Progress, Melody directed a network of policy experts dedicated to finding solutions for struggling middle class families."

Obama spoke of the economic stimulus plan: “I think the most important thing to recognize is that we have a consensus, which is pretty rare, between conservative economists and liberal economists, that we need a big stimulus package that will jolt the economy back into shape and that is focused on the 2.5 million jobs that I intend to create during the first part of my administration,” he said. “We have to put people back to work. Now, that runs in parallel with making sure that our financial system is stable. And so we're going to have to do more than one thing at a time. But across the board, people believe that this stimulus is critical.”

He wants this package ready to go ASAP. That probably means his team gets it together by early December, Congress perhaps holds hearings in another lame duck session, but the new Congress definitely begins working on it in early January. He wouldn't want them to actually pass it and send it to the White House until he's been inaugurated--because there will still be another president there-- but soon after.

Also on tap for Tuesday, according to Reuters: U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson plans to announce on Tuesday the formation of a program to increase the availability of auto loans, student loans and credit cards, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Fast times in a slow economy--with Black Friday looming--the now-ominous name of the traditional biggest shopping day of the biggest shopping period of the year: the day that the malls used to love, and this year everyone fears.

The E Team

Later today, Prez Elect Barack Obama is scheduled to introduce several appointees of his economic team. The press expects my prediction for Treasury Secretary, NY Fed President Tim Geithner. While Bill Richardson is widely reported as a lock for Commerce Secretary, reports are uncertain about whether he will be one of those named Monday. Why Commerce for Richardson? Here's one good answer ("Bold"), here's another ("Innovator".) It looks like Richardson's record as Gov of New Mexico makes him perfect to help guide the Green Deal (which is what I've decided to call it until they come up with a better name)--the green energy industry and infrastructure programs.

The economic team comes first, since Obama doesn't want to inherit a total wreck in January and even though we still have a president, we don't have a leader, so it's got to be him. Sunday the talk was about a really big economic recovery program--maybe even devoting as much to Main Street as the 700b. to Wall Street. Interesting--given the bucks promised to Citibank but not GM--that there's no word on a Labor Secretary. Maybe that's why the Commerce announcement may not be today--to pair up with Labor?

It looks like the national security team will be introduced next week. And it still looks like Hillary at State. Will there be an enviro team?--Interior, Energy, Environment? Here's an interesting discussion of Interior. Though Thompson is my congressional Rep and a good guy, I favor Raul M. Grijalva, Ariz. Rep, if Obama is going for policy, but Interior is such a huge bureaucratic mess, maybe it needs a former governor (like John Kitzhaber, Oregon) or someone else with administrative experience.

Beginning Big, Beginning Bold

President-Elect Obama's radio/YouTube address, announcing his intention to pass a two year Economic Recovery Plan immediately upon taking office. The text follows, with my emphasis added. I posted the video at Dreaming Up Daily:

"The news this week has only reinforced the fact that we are facing an economic crisis of historic proportions. Financial markets faced more turmoil. New home purchases in October were the lowest in half a century. 540,000 more jobless claims were filed last week, the highest in eighteen years. And we now risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further.

While I’m pleased that Congress passed a long-overdue extension of unemployment benefits this week, we must do more to put people back to work and get our economy moving again. We have now lost 1.2 million jobs this year, and if we don’t act swiftly and boldly, most experts now believe that we could lose millions of jobs next year.

There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. But January 20th is our chance to begin anew - with a new direction, new ideas, and new reforms that will create jobs and fuel long-term economic growth.

I have already directed my economic team to come up with an Economic Recovery Plan that will mean 2.5 million more jobs by January of 2011 - a plan big enough to meet the challenges we face that I intend to sign soon after taking office. We’ll be working out the details in the weeks ahead, but it will be a two-year, nationwide effort to jumpstart job creation in America and lay the foundation for a strong and growing economy. We’ll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernizing schools that are failing our children, and building wind farms and solar panels; fuel-efficient cars and the alternative energy technologies that can free us from our dependence on foreign oil and keep our economy competitive in the years ahead.

These aren’t just steps to pull ourselves out of this immediate crisis; these are the long-term investments in our economic future that have been ignored for far too long. And they represent an early down payment on the type of reform my Administration will bring to Washington - a government that spends wisely, focuses on what works, and puts the public interest ahead of the same special interests that have come to dominate our politics.

I know that passing this plan won’t be easy. I will need and seek support from Republicans and Democrats, and I’ll be welcome to ideas and suggestions from both sides of the aisle.

But what is not negotiable is the need for immediate action. Right now, there are millions of mothers and fathers who are lying awake at night wondering if next week’s paycheck will cover next month’s bills. There are Americans showing up to work in the morning only to have cleared out their desks by the afternoon. Retirees are watching their life savings disappear and students are seeing their college dreams deferred. These Americans need help, and they need it now.

The survival of the American Dream for over two centuries is not only a testament to its enduring power, but to the great effort, sacrifice, and courage of the American people. It has thrived because in our darkest hours, we have risen above the smallness of our divisions to forge a path towards a new and brighter day. We have acted boldly, bravely, and above all, together. That is the chance our new beginning now offers us, and that is the challenge we must rise to in the days to come. It is time to act. As the next President of the United States, I will. Thank you."

My sentiments exactly. From the Boston Globe.

Transition Flood

We aren't talking leaks anymore--this is a flood.

In addition to official announcements (David Axlerod as WH senior advisor, Greg Craig as White House Counsel, Lisa Brown will serve as Staff Secretary, and Chris Lu as Cabinet Secretary), there were apparently sourced stories that Tom Daschle, former Senate Democratic leader, is to be named Secretary of Health and Human Services, and will largely be in charge of getting universal health care created and passed.

Also that, pending final vetting, Janet Napolitano has been named Secretary of Homeland Security, and Chicago businessperson and a chief architect of the Obama fundraising apparatus Penny Pritzker has been likewise slotted for Secretary of Commerce. Update: Pritzker issued a statement Thursday that she's not taking a cabinet appointment. These are mostly Obama people, midwestern and except for Daschle, on the young side of 60.

And more "signs" that Robert Gates is considering/is being asked to, stay on as Sec of Defense.

These gushed out Wednesday, after Tuesday's spill of Peter Orszag as Budget Director and Eric Holder as Attorney General. Most of these apparent appointments have been praised. I've noted elsewhere that Orszag's appointment, along with Obama's message to the Climate Summit signals that the Climate Crisis will be high on Obama's agenda. The same may be said, with Orszag as well as Daschle, that health care isn't going to be left behind either.

But all this continues to be subsumed to the continuing noise over Hillary, will she or won't she. Wednesday saw more push-back in the media, with a few CW heavyweights like Tom Friedman and David Broder warning against it, and more stories alluded to distress within Team Obama over the Drama Queen appearances. The Times suggests Aides in each camp have grown increasingly sour toward the other in recent days as the matter played out publicly.

Also some attempts to mute the media mantra of the Obama administration as Clinton redux. Al G. put it this way:No Obama administration staffers are more guaranteed to be free of Clintonesque manipulation or fantasy than those like Craig and Holder that at great risk to their careers bucked the Clinton machine back when the polls suggested Senator Clinton's "inevitable" nomination to the presidency. They're battle-tested, inoculated and have zero illusions about wanting to relive the failed Clinton presidency. They've learned decisively from its mistakes in a depth and detail that most will never have the chance to do.

If these names turn out to be actual appointments, it does suggest that Obama is fielding less a Team of Rivals as an All-Star team. These are star skill players at their positions.

As for all the transition leakiness, there are reporters complaining that they aren't getting enough leaks. I don't know if I can blame the Clintonistas for all of them. They are starting to look like trial balloons--get the names out there and see if opposition develops, especially for the Cabinet level posts that require Senate confirmation.

Okay, back to the fun part: the election. The numbers continue to roll in, and Obama continues to gain votes. He's gone from winning by 5% in the popular vote on election night to now ahead by about 7%: with over 67 million votes now, Obama has 52.7% to McCain's 45.9.

Even where Obama lost, he gained--or won something. Missouri has finally been called for McCain, but only by 3,632 votes. Obama lost Utah of course--but get this, he won Salt Lake County, which includes Salt Lake City (by just over 200 votes.) The GOP won the county by at least 20 points in the last two elections.

Meanwhile the Minnesota Senate recount has begun--Franken made up some ground on the first day, but there's a long way to go.

Transition Watch

Democrat Mark Begich has been elected as U.S. Senator from Alaska. At this hour the AP and the Anchorage newspaper have called it for him, since his lead exceeds the number of ballots yet to be counted.

Democrats kept a Senate seat in their caucus earlier Tuesday by admonishing Joe Lieberman, taking a subcommittee chair (which while minor, still removes him from any power over climate crisis legislation) but allowing him to remain chair of the Senate Homeland Security committee. Afterwards, Joe the Traitor acknowledged that he owed his retention to Barack Obama.

The Lieberman deal and the prospects of Hillary as Secretary of State are being placed in the context of Obama's postpartisanship, changing how Washington works, as well as getting everybody to work together on some very serious problems. The Hillaryites seem to be trying not to screw up Hillary's options by talking too much, but they can't completely control themselves, as usual. Obama has to suspect that this isn't going to change.

We'll see how this plays out. Though I'd like to see Joe the Traitor dealt with sooner rather than later, he will be dealt with--by the voters of Connecticut. By then maybe he will have transformed himself again. I remain skeptical about Hillary, but the idea is getting general approval. I remain impressed with Obama's consistency, by his vision and by his patience, specifically in these matters.

As far as I'm concerned, the big news of the day--ignored by everyone--was Obama's statement on the Climate Crisis. I'll be writing about that shortly at Dreaming Up Daily.

Drama Queens

The unavoidable gossip beginning late Thursday and continuing all Friday has been Hillary as Sec of State. I'm flummoxed by the whole notion. If No Drama Obama needed any more evidence of what this would bring his administration, the very fact of the firestorm of talk about Hillary, the Drama Queen (and I use the term in its non-gender specific, and non-sexual preference sense) should be convincing. Hillary comes fully equipped with her loud mouthed loyalists, partisans to the core, including some certifiable morons (Lanny Davis) and louts (Howard the Wolf.) Plus the Big Dog.

Meanwhile the stories are battles of contradictory sources. Some say she's been offered the job. Others say there was one discussion, to see if she is interested (and perhaps, one would guess, if she'll submit to being vetted, including questions of Bill.) Some say the Obama team is behind the talk or isn't sufficiently denying it, others say that after Clinton, Obama interviewed Bill Richardson, and he hasn't told anyone who he favors. (Which sounds like his usual modus operandi at this point.)

I don't know these people, I don't know what Obama knows, but from where I sit, it's a bad, bad idea. Hillary is toxic, if only for her people and their brand of vicious partisanship. How can Hillary and Bill Richardson be in the same Cabinet after all the Judas crap of the campaign? And Richardson has to be in this cabinet. I think he's best positioned at State--an outward looking post, a groundbreaker for Latinos, as he represents the U.S. in the world. He's an experienced diplomat and administrator; Hillary is neither. She may be very knowledgeable, which might make her a decent National Security Advisor, but anywhere in the White House she's going to inspire intrigue, second-guessing and backbiting. If not by her, then by her minions. And there is always, always Bill, who not even she can control. If Obama is really considering her--and there are also reports that there is substantial opposition to the idea within Team Obama--then he is a lot more confident/sanguine/tolerant than me, but I see it as, at best, a huge drain on the energy that needs to be focused. Team of Rivals sounds great, but it has to be a team, and I don't see a team player--at least one capable of controlling the rowdy elements she brings with her.

But...there are a few puzzled and doubting journalists among the enthusiasts for the story, with a heavy dose of vituperation from Al G. at the Field, who believes the media frenzy is being generated by vengeful Clintonians who want to deny State to their enemies, Richardson and John Kerry. I'm not quite sure of the logic of this part, but I share the feeling that this is being generated by Clinton loyalists, for whatever reason (like they have to have any.)

And while I'm on my high hobby horse, I was glad to see Pat Leahy and Bernie Sanders go public with their conviction that Joe Lieberman needs to be replaced as chair of the Homeland Security. I'm with them, and not with wusses like Evan Bayh. It's one thing not to hold grudges. It's another to subvert your agenda and complicate what's already a complicated situation in the Senate with competing agendas you can avoid. Leiberman is another Drama Queen.

In Alaska, Dem candidate Mark Begich is now up 1,022 votes, with 24,000 left to count next week. He needs to be ahead by about 1500 to avoid a state-funded recount, which in any case doesn't sound like the ballot-by-ballot hand recount that Minnesota conducts. Sounds like he has a pretty good chance of achieving what he needs without a recount.

Transition and Other Gossip (Plus Farewell to Ted the Felon in Alaska)

Part of why the media and blogosphere are full of misinformation and leaping to conclusions is that this transition is just damn exciting. People are excited! Polls show that ordinary Americans are even hopeful, and the likelihood of sweeping change is exhilarating.

So as long as you and I understand that this is all just gossip, why not indulge? Some of the credible names I'm spotting for Secretary of Health and Human Services: (Dr.) Howard Dean, Kathleen Sibelius (who took on Blue Cross in Kansas) or Tom Daschle (wrote a book on health care crisis.) Sibelius is also mentioned for Commerce, Education, Energy--does this mean she won't get any of them? Not that every appointment has to be a Big Name, but those are interesting ones. The actual jobs could just as well go to folks like James Lee Witt at Homeland Security, or James Comey at Justice.

Bill Richardson is still mentioned for State but also for Interior. That would be interesting, too, though it would be really neat if at last the Interior Department is run by a Native American. Tammy Duckworth is mentioned for both Veterans Affairs and Obama's Senate seat; Max Cleland is the other Veterans Affairs name.

Other big names I mentioned before and still think are credible: RFKjr., Janet Napolitano.

Big names being mentioned I really don't see in the Obama Administration: Ed Rendell, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore (though I'd be surprised if he wasn't a special envoy to the climate treaty next year), Richard Lugar, Colin Powell (don't think he wants another go-round), Ahnold. I do see a job for Mrs. Ahnold. I'm kind of agnostic about John Kerry for State. I don't think it will happen, and he's going to be an important force in the Senate.

Scientific types are really excited about the return of real science to the federal government, and are watching appointments like Director of White House Science and Technology Policy, and some key ones at lower crucial levels in the various departments. They're interested in what kind of scientist, what level of expertise, anything that signals policy. So far, some are pretty impressed with the relevant people on the transition team.

Meanwhile, the progressive blogosphere is very impressed with the transition Internet appointments, and the prospects for the first wired White House.

As for how the administration will work, Karen Tumulty isolates another quote from John Podesta's presentation Tuesday: President-elect Obama intends to continue the Domestic Policy Council and the National Economic Council. The important policy coordination role will be maintained in the White House. ... There's a central function of policy development coordination that takes place at the White House in conjunction with OMB. What he's looking for in a cabinet is people who are very strong, who can carry out the mandate, the missions of those agencies, and do it across the priorities that he's laid out to get the economy moving again, to get jobs moving again, to get wages growing again. "

Ambinder sees a transition paying a lot of attention to process, and: Obama seems to understand that the way he manages the White House during the first few week is absolutely vital to the smooth functioning of his administration after that."

Good news from...Alaska? Oh yeah. At close of business Wednesday, Democrat Mark Begich has erased Ted the Felon's 3,000 vote lead and now leads by 814 votes. With remaining votes to be counted Thursday (maybe Friday, maybe Monday as well) reported to come from Dem districts, Nat Silver sez Mark Begich is now an overwhelming favorite to win the Alaska Senate seat.

Reader Beware

I've been harping here on maintaining skepticism of reports on what Obama is and isn't going to do, who is and isn't going to be appointed, and what Obama does and doesn't want others to do. For increasingly good reasons. There's the pre-spin by people who have a self- interest. There are trial balloons, floated by similarly self-interested people as well as perhaps by the Obama team. There are the usual misunderstandings, by people overhearing things and reporters interpreting information.

Which has meant for instance that this morning headline gets denied tonight, as in the case of the supposed swap meet Bush and Obama held in the Oval Office yesterday. Or in the interpretation of a signal, which leads to strings of speculation, like on the Obama position on Joe Lieberman's fate in the Senate.

It was widely reported--and still is-- that Obama wants Lieberman's status to remain as it is, within the Dem caucus, and even retaining his committee chairs. But his spokesperson Stephanie Cutter indicated today that Obama's position is that he doesn't hold a grudge, but that Joe the Traitor's fate is up to Harry Reid and the Senate Dems. Well, there's a big difference between saying, Obama is not insisting Joe get thrown out, and Obama wants Joe to stay.

As to what we actually do know, John Podesta held a press conference to talk about the transition--TPM has the best summary I saw. The only thing missing is Podesta's response to a question that wouldn't these ethics rules banning lobbyist influence limit the people who might be appointed or be part of the transition? "So be it," Podesta decreed.

As we simultaneously look forward and evaluate the past campaign, Ambinder has this neat summary of why the Obama campaign was successful, such as Practice what you preach (trust the community organizers), and "Win Bigger/Lose Smaller:" "That was an Obama field mantra. The campaign opened up a field office in Warren Co., Ohio, where George W. Bush won by nearly 50 points in 2004. Well, Obama lost Warren County... but by 37 points. That's a big improvement. Losing by smaller margins in those smaller counties is how Barack Obama won Ohio."

And here for the record is another account of dancing in the street
on election day, this time in NYC. As I've said many times, if it wasn't for vicarious experiences, I wouldn't have many experiences at all.

In the continuing adventures of the three missing Senate seats, here's the latest on Alaska. Sounds like we could know a lot more Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Shannyn Moore reveals that election "irregularities" are not new in Alaska--for instance, 2004.

Electoral Map Quest

Map Quest: Top map shows presidential election results. Note that Missouri is still undecided--as of today, McCain is ahead by fewer than 5,000 votes with at least 7,000 ballots to be evaluated and counted. The second map is from the New York Times: the blue areas are where Democrats gained (not necessarily where they won.) In part, this reflects the Obama campaign philosophy of "win bigger, lose smaller." By the way, Obama's popular vote % is now 52.6 to McCains 46.1. You can ignore the Alaska map--there are more than a quarter of the total votes cast that are still to be counted.

Transition Watch

For the time being, I'm going to post little tidbits and political gossip over here--the kind of stuff that doesn't fit the more thematic Dreaming Up Daily blog. I posted here on the election principally because I wanted to have these posts on the same blog as posts on prior elections, for archival purposes mostly. With the very small traffic this site gets, its function apart from thinking aloud for a few friends and other readers has to be a kind of info diary, and to collect an archive that might be useful to someone later on.

Anyway, in today's information flow: Howard Dean is stepping down as DNC chair, a traditional move after a presidential election. My guess is he will be replaced by David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, who has said he won't be going to the White House.

Obama's approval rating is near 70%, and 65% believe he has the potential to be a good President.

Barack and Michelle visited the White House Monday, the drafty old mansion built with slave labor. Apparently, Michelle's mother will also be moving in; she's been the primary babysitter for the Obama girls during the campaign, and this should help make the transition easier on them. So save the mother-in-law jokes.

As for further appointments and actions, my policy is to stick with actual announcements and on the record statements by the people who actually have top level responsibilities. Because there's a lot of hoo-haw out there, some of which may simply be to further the agenda or prospects of the source. So I view statements on Obama's policy on Gitmo trials and the intelligence agencies as not credible. But the on the record statements on the Sunday talk shows about Obama's plans to issue executive orders immediately on key items are very credible (although actual decisions on these were denied Monday.)

Sometimes the rumors fall all over themselves, as in this one-day chronicle of rumors on who might be appointed to fill Obama's Senate seat: it started with one African American woman (Valerie Jarrett) and winds up with another (Cheryle Jackson.) Jarrett, an Obama confidant, is instead likely to wind up in the White House, according to anonymous Obama advisors, who seem more credible because they're responding to the earlier story that she was Obama's choice. Jackson might be the Governor's choice, but other frequently mentioned names are Jesse Jackson, Jr. and Tammy Duckworth.

On the outstanding Senate seats, a couple of stories indicate that Obama political operatives are in Georgia to help the Democrat, and that Obama may make an appearance on his behalf for the early December run-off. McCain and maybe Palin may appear for the notorious GOPer incumbent. Meanwhile, Nate Silver figures that Franken has a good chance to win the Minnesota recount after all (it also may not be settled until December), and early signs are that the Democrat may yet triumph in Alaska when more than 90,000 absentee and early votes--something like a third of the total vote--are counted in the increasingly fishy-looking Alaska election. That could happen by the end of this week.

One of the post-election front pages that quickly became keepsakes all over the world. Obama has become something of a savior for print journals in trouble.

Stories

As an adjunct to the televised version (below), Salon asked some of its contributors to write about their experiences on election day.

I've also taken note elsewhere of the boon the Obama election has been to newspapers and magazines, which have seen editions about the Obama victory selling out. It happened especially to big city dailies on Wednesday, and perhaps figuring this out, it happened to the San Francisco Chronicle on Sunday when their front page was full of Obama photos and newspaper front pages from Wednesday. Or so I've heard. Because locally, there wasn't a Chronicle to be found by early afternoon, whereas there were piles and piles of the local daily--with its Obamaless front page.

How It Went Down



Glancing back at pre-election posts, I realized there's no account on this blog of how the election returns actually rolled out. This video compilation by Jed L. provides some idea of the network coverage. Although polls closed in part of Indiana pretty early, the state was a long time in being called. Pennsylvania was the earliest indicator of how it would go, and Ohio was the next really meaningful call--it meant McCain couldn't win. It was California and our west coast states that gave Obama the victory, as soon as our polls closed. Virginia and Florida were called at about the same time, or soon after.

Monday Morning Quarterbacking

That title is painful thanks to the disastrous Steelers game Sunday, but it's apropos.

One big thing happened to the American economy over the weekend, and it happened in China. The huge Chinese stimulus spending plan immediately sent Asian and European markets higher. But it also stole the thunder on the U.S., and ought to be getting wide-eyed attention from U.S. officials, particularly Congress.

About the only comfort the U.S. had was that this economic crisis is shared, especially by China. But such an early and massive step could change that. It should put a lot of pressure on Congress to pass a meaningful and hefty stimulus package, real soon.

As for the general proposition, Monday morning quarterback and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman strongly advises President Obama not to repeat the mistakes of FDR during the Great Depression, which--contrary to CW-- was to create too modest a net stimulus to the economy. While FDR increased federal spending on what we now call infrastructure, for instance, he also increased taxes and didn't help state and local government meet their responsibilities without increasing taxes on their levels.

"My advice to the Obama people is to figure out how much help they think the economy needs, then add 50 percent," Krugman concludes. "It’s much better, in a depressed economy, to err on the side of too much stimulus than on the side of too little. In short, Mr. Obama’s chances of leading a new New Deal depend largely on whether his short-run economic plans are sufficiently bold. Progressives can only hope that he has the necessary audacity."

The Sunday After

There are two types of Sunday columns responding to the Obama election. One is to marvel at it and what it means, as Frank Rich does. They're great, but they do remind me of a curious lack of closure hereabouts. People keep referring to celebrations, dancing in the streets everywhere, a new attitude in the everday world. Once again, this kind of thing passed me by. I detect a smile now and then in response to my Obama cap, but that's about it. If there was dancing in the street here, it was on some other street. But then, I've usually been in the wrong place at the victorious time for this sort of thing. Oh well.

The second type of column outlines the author's agenda for what Obama should or must do, and in what order. Some of these are worthwhile, like Al Gore's on the Climate Crisis and Paul Krugman on the economy. (Okay, that's a Friday column but you get the idea.) Others are the usual special pleadings based on a single issue or on the author's ego--sorry, I meant insights. These are predictable and generally speaking, ignorable.

There is a bit of ugliness in the post-election reaction to Prop 8 in California, which passed a ban on gay marriages (as did two other states.) The vote itself was pretty ugly, assuming it reflects the actual intent of the voters, which given California proposition history is not at all certain. Manipulating the "yes" and "no" has become a high art of the political marketeers who devise these things. But that a first impulse was to immediate blame of African Americans for how they voted was and remains ugly. It does no one credit. And it doesn't help.

On Friday the President-Elect had a brief press conference. A couple of things he said stand out, although I'm not sure that everyone else got the point. The first was that he would proceed with deliberate haste on cabinet appointments--in other words, not be rushed into making them. And in urging Congress to pass a stimulus package, he said that if they didn't in the lame duck session, he would do it immediately after taking office. He didn't say, he would send a stimulus bill to the Hill in January. He said he would get a stimulus package. Maybe the press didn't pick up on this, but I'm guessing that Congress did.

Gossip

Obama has named his economic transition team, with a good mix of members: Clinton stalwarts but also people from business, federal, state and city government. I like seeing Robert Reich on that list. Reich left the Clinton cabinet (Sec. of Labor) due in part to the policies he couldn't support--he was more liberal than the rest of Clinton's economic team as it evolved. That Obama wants his voice in this group is very good, though I doubt Reich will go back to the cabinet (His book on his Clinton admin experiences was called Locked in the Cabinet, after all.)

The only name in this group mentioned in the media as a top contender for Treasury is Lawrence Summers. Ambinder thinks Treasury will come out of this group, and Richard Wolfe on MSNBC talked of Summers as if his appointment is a cinch. But I'm not sure. This could be a panel of advisors--a group of elders. While cabinet posts, especially Treasury, are part policy, part diplomatic jobs (dealing with outside entities), they are also administrative. A younger appointee, like Geithner, appeals to me. If an older guy like Summers does get the job now, I look for a younger #2 there like Geithner, who will be in line to inherit the job in a couple of years. (Possibly the same situation at Defense, if Gates is kept on.)

Rahm Emanuel is officially Obama's chief of staff. Ambinder writes this about what it signals: What does Rahm's selection say about Obama? Obama won't be afraid to step on toes. He's going to be very aggressive in pursuing his agenda. He won't shrink from confronting Congress. And he will expect extreme competence from his staff, from the chief on down.

No surprise if, as suggested, David Axlerod and press secretary Robert Gibb go with Obama to the White House.

I'm warming to the idea of Bill Richardson as Secretary of State. Makes sense in a number of ways, but again the key may be his relationship with Obama, and nobody knows that really, except Obama. It's news to me, for example, that Obama and Emanuel have been so close, but it makes perfect sense that he'd want that for chief of staff. Plus Emanuel's experience in the White House, Congress, business, electoral politics.

Well, that's the gossip and my take on it. It's barely 48 hours after the election was settled, and I'm still sleep deprived and a little numb. But when I switched on the TV today I did get a rush when I first heard the words, "President-elect Obama."

The Cabinet Connection

At this point it's hard to tell which names are serious, which are trial balloons, which are floated to assuage egos and repay debts, and which are fantasies of supporters of the person named, or other unnamed but not actually in the know persons.

But there are names out there for cabinet members, and the ones I'm most interested in are the ones I was hoping to see on Obama's list. Especially Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who would make a terrific appointment to Environmental Protection Agency, but also to head the Dept. of Energy. Caroline Kennedy is also rumored for UN rep or ambassador to the UK (where her grandfather, Joseph P. Kennedy served.) I like the symbolism--Kennedys: The Next Generation. But they both would be really good in those roles. RFK, Jr. would be tenacious. In any case I do hope for a heavy hitter for Energy--somebody with credentials and credibility on the climate crisis as well as green energy.

Of the names being bandied about my instincts say that some are more likely than others (Vilsack at Agriculture, Napolitano as A.G., Geithner at Treasury, Bill Richardson and Chuck Hagel somewhere) but I expect surprises. Somebody from business, and from academia. We don't have to deplete Democrats in Congress or the states. And by the way, cabinet secretaries aren't the only important posts. There are White House advisors, too, which is kind of where I expect Hagel might land. How about several science advisors--like James Hansen of NASA, the most prominent name on Climate Crisis science?

What's got me foxed is the Rahm Emanuel business. Not that he'd be offered the Chief of Staff job, but that it's public, along with the "fact" that he hasn't accepted yet. This is very un-Obamalike, and actually doesn't bode too well for Emanuel. He's sprung a leak even before he's taken the job? Not so good.

Apart from what Michelle's dress was all about at Grant Park (a compromise between Sasha's black and Malia's red?), that's got me mystified.

But what I'm thinking of is this: to this day I can recite for you the entire JFK cabinet, including Postmaster General, which I learned when I was 15. This is a really exciting time to be 15, and to watch a new generation government being formed. At that time, I unrealistically identified with the Kennedy administration--I imagined I was part of it. They cooperated a bit, too--I sent them letters, and got replies like, "The Secretary has carefully considered your letter," and "Your thoughtful letter to the President has been forwarded to the State Department..." I wonder if today's 15 year olds will get that part of the experience.

Now, even though I get emails signed "Barack," I am well aware how distant I am from what's going on in Washington. That's something I will be thinking about further.

Hangover

I didn't get much sleep last night and today is packed with day jobness. But I've got a couple of cautionary thoughts about what we've just experienced.

First, the amount of money binged on this election was obscene. I was part of it this time--for me it was overwhelmingly important to help elect Obama. That his campaign raised so much money from so many small donors is a wonder. But all together, the money it takes to do anything in elections--run as a candidate, back a ballot initiative--is pretty awful. And I don't know how sustainable either. There was enough margin in the system--enough loose change in enough pockets--to do it this time. But this time next year? I doubt it.

Look at all the attention paid to raising money. One of Obama's lesser known advisors, Cass Sunstein, is co-author of a book called Nudge, about "choice architecture," which is a fancy name for a particular kind of marketing, which is by definition a confidence game. The Obama campaign was very good at nudging donations from me. And look at all the money spent here in CA on Prop 8--I think it's like 80 million. It looks like the homophobes won, but however it turns out, you can bet the question is going to be on the ballot next time, and even more money will be spent on it. These are millions that could be going for things that have much more direct effects, with multipliers in terms of the good they do. You can educate kids with that. Fill potholes. Prevent some folks from dying in pain because of inadequate health insurance.

Anyway, it's over for me. If my contributions this year suggest to any pols that I can be nudged again, forget it.

Second, this election night proved once again that when it comes to real time information, the blogosphere is totally dependent on the established information media. I see the chortling on Kos etc. about newspapers losing circulation and in danger of going under. But Kos and the Huffington Post etc. have yet to develop more that supplementary sources of information and modes of gathering and delivering it. They depend on the reporting of media organizations: newspaper and television. And that's true beyond such obvious situations as election night. The blogosphere has done a lot in breaking particular stories, and pushing others until the established media pays attention. But without newspapers in particular, the blogosphere would be little more than unverifiable gossip.

The reason is simple: the blogs don't make enough money to support reporters and a news gathering organization. Very few people can make a living directly from the Internet. Those hoary old newspapers still have union jobs. Does Kos? Meanwhile, the people who write for Huffington are just about all sustained by their newspaper, magazine and TV gigs, and the related income streams of books and paid speeches. Even the big players in the blogosphere depend on books, magazine columns and paid speaking engagements.

Plus there are editors. That's a very mixed blessing, and the blogs do have ways of checking people on their information. But that doesn't always work. There were so many diaries on Kos this election season that purported to be first person reports that could just as easily have been fiction.

The Internet was supposed to be a faster source of election news than TV, radio and newspapers. But those sites that aren't part of established media organizations did little but report what the TV said. And usually, long after they said it. The blogosphere has unique potential and fulfills unique functions, but it has a long way to go to be more than amateur in the gathering and disseminating of timely information.

A sign among the 200,000 or so in and around Grant Park in Chicago, celebrating the victory of President-Elect Barack Obama.

A New Day

It's a new day for America and the world, but it benefits from the past. My two best friends from high school, fellow members of Jr. Teen Dems for Kennedy when we were 14, were doing GOTV on election day, as was I. Margaret remembered Martin Luther King talking about the future he envisioned but might not get to see. I saw Jesse Jackson weeping in the crowd at Grant Park, and I remembered his ground-breaking candidacy especially in 1992 when he was the last Democrat standing except for Bill Clinton in the primaries, and when in the darkest days of Reagan and Bush his message and his slogan was, "Keep hope alive."

Everyone who marched for Civil Rights in the early 60s, or against the war in the late 60s, has to feel they had a part in this, even if that generation--my generation--is reviled as a failure.

Now the Obama administration can not only call on the talents of those who have served in the past, but they can profit from past mistakes. My fellow conspirator in the 1970 antiwar movement at Knox College, John Podesta, is a leader of the transition, and as White House Secretary in Bill Clinton's first term (after leaving the White House, he returned to become Chief of Staff in the second term) he was well positioned to see all the problems in the Clinton transition.

All of this will serve the Obama administration well. But for all the talk about well-known Washington figures, I expect that eventually--if not immediately--we are going to be seeing a new generation in Washington. And that's as it should be. This was a generational election. And for once, America may have gotten a head start on its future. Because the electorate that voted for Obama is much more like America's future than are those who did not.

It's going to be a midwestern administration--perfectly positioned between the West, which is the vanguard of America's future, and the East/Middle Atlantic/South which dominated America's past, but they are transforming as well.

Obama's speech was remarkable for being so consistent with what he has said before, just as his closing argument was very close to his opening argument in the campaign. America might not quite yet know what it's got, but that's only because it's hard to take it in all at once. Obama has been saying it all along.

The numbers aren't all in as I write this, but surely this was a unique election, and a transformative one. We can't yet begin to see what it means. Except one thing: now the future has a chance. It will take a lot of work, but that possibility is something else I was afraid I wouldn't see in my lifetime.

Super Barack!

Day of Joy

Okay, now I'm worried. Karl Rove is predicting a 338 to 200 electoral vote victory for Obama. Karl Rove? What's he up to? Sowing overconfidence? A November 4 surprise?

Okay, I'm actually kidding. Rove did say that, but I am not worried, I am preparing for a joyful day and a tears- of- joy night. One of the minor joys of it already is anticipating never needing to say "Karl Rove" again.

I'm not going to run the numbers again. I'm not going to predict margins or states. I doubt that I'll even blog much today, at least not in the way that the sites people will actually be reading will be blogging (and twittering, and whatever the hell else they do.) But who knows?

My plan is: I'll vote. Then I have a couple of options about some modest GOTV. Then here in CA it will soon be time to start checking out returns-- I believe Indiana comes in at 3 pm here, and a bunch of states close their polls at 4.

So I'll be watching: Indiana, and how soon does it comes in? Virginia--very important. Florida. (Which is supposed to be very close.) If these states come in quickly for Obama, it's going to be big. If North Carolina and Georgia do as well, it's going to be very big. If not, then the Obama victory will take longer. I'm going to enjoy the show.

I'm not really worried about Pennsylvania. McCain perceived weakness for Obama based on the primary, but the state Democratic party plus the city of Philadelphia and city of Pittsburgh were all backing Hillary. Now they are all backing Obama. So with confidence in PA--especially after the Monday Night Steelers win in Washington--comes confidence in the final outcome. Ohio will be the icing.

It's not going to be easy for President Obama. As someone said on Charlie Rose Monday night, the question is whether our government can still do big things--because we really need some big things. But with a mandate, and with the way Obama wins--with wide appeal, and on the basis of coming together, on the basis of a grassroots-based victory--he could be in as good a position as is even imaginable.

A conservative columnist quoted Winston Churchill as observing that FDR had a second class intelligence but a first class temperament. Obama, this columnist wrote, has a first class intelligence and a first class temperament. He understands the deep issues. He understands the specific issues. The whole. The parts.

Some pundits insist that he's great with large crowds but not so much one-on-one. They are idiots. You can see Obama literally touching people--he's a guy who relates with his hands. He's head and heart. I won't go all Jungian on you, but he's the most complete person I've ever seen on the public stage. Plus he knows who he is. That's what those first two books are about.

I don't think we're prepared for what we're going to see Tuesday night. Not the results, but the response. Not just across America, but around the world. A lot of people have been holding their breaths. Waiting to exhale. Waiting to sing and shout. We've got another chance. We might save the world yet.

Sad News

Just caught a little of Obama's speech at UNC Charlotte, talking about his grandmother who passed away this morning. How incredibly sad that she didn't live another day, to know that her grandson was elected President of the United States.

But Barack spoke of her as one of America's quiet heroes, and his campaign on behalf of people like her. I don't know if it was misting there, but he brushed away what could have been tears as he spoke.

Awesome

I'm making calls for Barack to Philadelphia today (leaving a lot of messages so far, but at least I can give them their polling place) but took a break and heard Jack Cafferty say, "Tomorrow is going to be awesome." It's the perfect word: AWESOME.

I see Tweety is still trying to make a race of it, but with the CNN reporters I detect a different mood, an anticipation of the history we're making. I'm digging it.

This chart of the most recent polls showing Obama ahead is from FiveThirtyEight: the polls in yellow (or mustard, depending on your screen and color consciousness) are polls that include cell phone numbers. The ones in gray don't. How accurate these different sets turn out to be will be one of the more interesting polling questions resulting from this election.

One Day to Change: It's Getting Better All the Time

Some of those with a vested interest in the race tightening see the race tightening. But consider this:

Tracking polls Sunday showed Obama's lead growing.

While giving its last tracking poll of the campaign, Gallup said:

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

Gallups final presidential estimate: Obama 55% McCain 44%

The latest Washington Post/ABC poll: Obama 54% McCain 43%

The USA Today/Gallup poll: Obama 53% McCain 42%

CBS poll: Obama 54% McCain 41% (the change from Saturday basically the dwindling number of undecideds)

The final Pew poll predicts on election day: Obama 52% McCain 46%

A late addition, the NBC/WSJ poll Obama 51% McCain 43%, which Nate Silver sez is the freshest of the polls--done Sunday--and which I've noticed is usually the most conservative of the major non-tracking polls.

Please note: Obama has a majority in every one of them. And have you ever seen such numbers as 54%? 55%?

As for those polls showing battleground states tightening, consider the PPP poll of Pennsylvania, which shows Obama's lead "shrinking" to an eight point lead, 53%-45%. Two things: last I took math, 53% is a majority. And the poll notes: "Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided."

So if you're a Democrat you're thinking, what's the catch? What can go wrong? Marc Armbinder provides a handy list of the Known Unknowns that could produce results different from the polls, in addition to the polls just being fucked up. Even Democrats ought to be happy with 18 things to worry about.

Well, not quite 18 since that list also includes a few things GOPers need to worry about. But he's leaves out one: By all accounts, Obama is leading by a mile in early voting, but did most of his voters vote, or are there more to swell the totals on Tuesday?

The anti-Obama ad blitz from the Hate Talk Express now includes national play of Jeremiah Wright, apparently sponsored by a 527. It reportedly started Sunday (including Sunday Night Football) and will continue through Tuesday. Not sure if this is the same one as in PA, tagged with the PA republican party.

GOTV, Go Go Go.

More Numbers

Number of people expected to attend McCain Election Night event in Arizona: 3,000

Number of people expected to attend Obama Election Night event in Chicago:
1 million

New Polls

CBS: Obama by 13.

USA Today: Obama by 11. Way ahead in economy and health care issues, even with McCain on national security. Generic Democrat downballot up by 15, largest margin since 1964.

Barack "congratulates" McCain on receiving Dick Cheney's endorsement.

Two Days to Change: GOTV

The beauty of the Obama candidacy is in the consistency of his message and the congruence of Obama with that message of a new politics. But it also leads to political ironies.

It's there in yesterday's list of younger members of prominent Republican and Democratic families supporting him. Even in the observation at Dreaming Up Daily that children are powerfully attracted to his image and his voice. Politically, in terms of this historical moment, it is summed up in a statement by yet another Reaganite, Jeffrey Hart, quoted by his political opposite, Hendrik Hertzberg at the New Yorker.

Hart lists all the ways that Republicans have lately gone astray from what used to be conservativism. Hertzberg observes: Hart is a Burkean. His disenchantment with the anti-intellectual, Christianist, and imperial-triumphalist strains of the conservative movement has been growing for some time. The Republicans under Bush have left behind fiscal responsibility and the Constitution. By plunging into Iraq, they have ignored history. By playing fundamentalist politics, they deny the life-saving possibilities of stem cell research. This and more leads Hart to his conclusion:

This analysis could be extended, but it seems clear to me that Obama is the conservative in the 2008 election. The astonishing thing is that Obama is also the liberal in the 2008 election.

There are two more days before election day. McCain and his increasingly desperate campaign are flailing aboard the Hate Talk Express. But the Obama and Democratic Party Get Out the Vote efforts are shifting into high gear. Anecdotal as well as journalistic reports continue that their efforts are large, widespread and enthusiastic, while those on McCain's behalf so far are small and spiritless.

On Saturday, Obama moved up a little more in the tracking polls. Gallup has Obama up by 10, Washington Post/ABC 53%-44%, and the Marist national poll by 7. The Washington Post political reporters conclude: "Barack Obama and the Democrats hold a commanding position two days before Tuesday's election, with the senator from Illinois leading in states whose electoral votes total nearly 300 and with his party counting on significantly expanded majorities in the House and Senate. "

Nate Silver suggests this has become a five state election, but realistically, McCain's only chance is to take Pennsylvania, and that's only the beginning of what he has to do. It's the difference between an election that is basically over between eight and nine PM Eastern, or one that goes on to 11 or midnight. And as I've said before, it could be essentially over shortly after 7, if Obama has won Indiana, Virginia and especially Florida (though I expect the networks will be very cautious about calling Florida early.) Of course this is all science fiction at this point--if the turnout is as huge as expected and polls stay open later, etc.

So it's all about GOTV now and for the hours remaining until polls close on Tuesday. It's important everywhere, but especially in Pennsylvania.

Three Days to Change: We Got the Mo

Much as I foretold you, Obama's got the mo back in the daily trackers, and I expect it to grow. The battleground state polls show maybe one surprise: Obama gaining in Ohio but slipping in Florida. The Obama campaign thought it would be the other way around, which in a way is good news, because they felt the battle in Florida would be the ground game--getting out the vote. And that's going well so far. They thought Ohio would require more persuasion, and they seem to be succeeding at that.

Some polls show a smaller lead in PA but nothing that really threatens an Obama victory there. Nevada looks so good that it's become a lean Obama. States that weren't battleground suddenly are: Georgia, North Dakota and...Arizona.

The increasing and quite possibly (shhh, don't say this out loud) fatal problem for McCain is the extent of the early vote. Obama is running away with it, to the tune of a nearly 60-40 split, according to one poll. North Carolina, where Obama holds a small lead, has banked enough votes to maybe make it a safe one. New Mexico, Nevada, and maybe the one that makes this as close to a lock as is possible before the final day of voting: Colorado. Something like 2/3 of the vote may already be in, and a huge number already counted--some 60% of the 2004 total-- Obama is way ahead.

Obama is close to becoming a consensus candidate. On Friday a former Reagan chief of staff endorsed him (saying that McCain picked Palin with one interview, while it takes three interviews to get a job at McDonalds), as did an actual Reagan: Ronald Reagan, Jr. known as Ron. This means that Obama has been endorsed by the next generations of Reagan, Goldwater and Eisenhower. As well as Kennedy, and the principal Gores and Clintons.

All of which means that Obama may have the kind of support he will need to govern in these dangerous times. (He may not, however, get the filibuster-proof 60 Dems in the Senate, pollsters are saying.) On the other hand, if McCain somehow wins, this country is in deep, deep, deep trouble.

Four Days to Change: People Get Ready

Obama's "American Stories" Wednesday night reached some 33.6 million homes--more people watched it than watched the final game of the World Series, or that usually watch network shows at that time. There was alot of praise for the "ad" and only hollow criticism. Given the audience, I still do expect a boost in the tracking polls, which could start to show up Friday.

Thursday's topic was the Undecideds--which way will they go? McCain's pollster tried to make a case that they will go to, guess who, McCain. Others without a vested interested differed on this. Some said that they'll probably split. Some said that given their demographics more may well go to McCain--but there are voters not on the radar of the polls who are likely to go to Obama, so the "unknowns" and the "undecideds" will be a wash.

But then there's the "Bandwagon Effect" that suggests most will go to the candidate perceived to be winning, and that's Obama, at least right now. Yet another statistical analysis gives a 54-46 edge to Obama.

So the unknown remains unknown. Fortunately the Obama campaign is concentrating on what they can do something about--getting people to the polls to vote. That's the really big remaining question. On that score, the McCain campaign may be in very bad shape--according to the Washington Post, they are spending their money on television ads and have to cut back on Get Out the Vote support--which was already likely to be weaker than Obama's.

McCain is gambling on moving voters to him with television, though the best he can do is match the Obama ads. This might mean that if the polls haven't moved much by Monday, McCain is doomed.

Well, he's probably doomed anyway. The McCain-Palin campaign remains a tawdry joke. McCain had to bus in 4,000 school kids in Ohio to create a crowd of 6,000, and his team couldn't even get Joe the Plumber there. Frank Rich commented on Keith that the McCainites can't seem to organize a two car parade. Now the WPost has joined the NY Times in chiding McCain for his "increasingly reckless" attacks.

McCainites were pointing to a couple of polls that showed tightening, but experts like Nate Silver doubted it. In the meantime, the NY Times/CBS poll released Thursday showed Obama holding an 11 point lead, 51-40. McCain is dropping, due in large measure to Palin and the increasing perception that she's not ready to be President--perhaps fed by the many newspaper and other (General Powell) endorsements of Obama that made this point.

As for the contours of the campaign, they're represented by two neighboring states. Arizona, McCain's home state, is now so close that the Obama campaign is reportedly considering making a play. And California, where the Field poll said on Thursday, "Barack Obama is poised to win California by the largest margin of any president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936."

With the day-to-day of the campaign, the polls, the punditry, as well as the day to day of our lives, there's only a wisp of an idea of how we're going to see this--and above all, feel this--on Tuesday. Election day and election night could be one incredible story. There's this outside chance that it is going to be truly terrible. There is the likely scenario that it won't be quite as one-sided as it now seems that it might. But...it might be just flat out amazing. The black turnout, the youth turnout--both potentially passionate and huge; the crucial Latino turnout, and even the numbers and feeling in less definite demographics...it could be the Day of Joy we will long remember. I suppose it could be bad luck to think about it, so we aren't. Then again...people, get ready.

Five Days to Change: American Stories

Last night's "American Stories," was dubbed (even by the candidate) Barack Obama's "info-mercial" but it was so much more. It may be the template for the 21st century fireside chat.

As Tom Shales in the Washington Post wrote: "As political filmmaking, "Barack Obama: American Stories" was an elegant combination of pictures, sounds, voices and music designed not so much to sell America on Barack Obama as to communicate a sensibility. The film conveyed feelings, not facts -- specifically, a simulation of how it would feel to live in an America with Barack Obama in the White House.... It was the easiest thing in the world, watching the skillfully edited hodgepodge put together by his campaign, to picture Obama as president. That's one thing the film was designed to do, especially for the doubters and those scared, "undecided" voters out there."

I'll post responses etc. as they form during the day. I expect Obama's poll numbers to go up after this, and I don't think they're going to stop. Even before the airing, the first tracker of the day shows McCain's gains in that poll reversing.

6 Days to Change: Accumulation

There's a big part of this week that is still the campaign before election day. For that part, the news is that there really isn't any news. The McCain campaign continues to self-destruct. The national tracking polls are relatively flat, while state polls for the most part continue to move towards Obama. It's probably the lack of new news that makes Obamafiles nervous.

So even new good news doesn't cause the joy it might, because it's so much like the old good news. For instance, the Pew poll. It shows an astonishing 52% to 36% lead for Obama among registered voters. Likely voters it's 53-38. Obama's support is relatively stable, but McCain's keeps going down in Pew's polls. However, Obama has increased in voters who say they support him strongly.

The LA Times poll found Obama leading by 9 in Ohio, and 50%-43% in Florida. Those are lights out numbers. Other state polls continue to be strong for Obama. This is good news, but it's old good news. It's been like this for weeks. How much longer can it stay this way?

On the other hand, the fact that it has stayed this way this long is itself news--and very good news. CW says the polls should have tightened already. The Obama campaign tells reporters that it still expects a tighter race---if not in the final polls, then for the election. They don't believe McCain will get only 43%, let alone 38. There's some evidence for this in a few state polls, notably the most recent in PA. But even in those, Obama is still ahead in the high single digits.

And the fact that the race remains stable just six days out is also very good news for the guy who is ahead, and that's Obama.

But there is something else going on: the election that's already in progress. And most of the evidence points to a big advantage for Obama. Though it was interesting that MSNBC used the Hotline number of just a one point advantage for Democrats, others see it differently. Pew found that among the 15% of registered voters who have already voted, Obama leads by 19 points, and among the additional 16% of the electorate that plans to vote early, Obama leads by 56-37.

The Washington Post poll has similar numbers. Among those who have already voted, Obama leads 60% to 39%, and 58-39 by those who intend to vote early. He leads by 6 points by those who say they intend to vote on Nov. 4. Gallup shows a 10 point advantage for Obama in early voting.

Those are polls--official stats vary in what they show from state to state (party, race, etc.) but according to the AP: "Early voting in some swing states also appeared to be in Obama's favor. In North Carolina, for example, the turnout for early voting has been nearly a third higher than in 2004 and the number of Democrats has been close to double that of Republicans. Democratic voters in Florida have numbered about 100,000 more than Republicans, and Democrats hold an edge so far in Colorado."

Nate Silver suggests: "there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent).Hmm ... can anybody think of something that those three states have in common? The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal."

More information: Registered Democrats have a 20-point advantage in early voting over Republicans in Iowa. In Nevada, Democrats lead 54.4% to 29.1% among early voters. Early voters constituted 59.4% of all voters in 2004; this year, early voting to this point is equivalent to 44% of all 2004 numbers. In Florida, In this critical swing state, early voters already make up 27% of total 2004 numbers (in 2004, early voters constituted 36% of total votes).
Dems outnumber Republicans so far, 44.7% to 40%. Governor Crist has ordered the early voting polling places to remain open 12 hours a day instead of 8, after weeks of hours-long lines.

At the very least, these are now votes in the bank. (Not the new kind of bank, the old kind of bank you could actually trust. Probably.)

Tonight the Obama 30 minute presentation is on several TV networks at 8 pm. (I'm not sure if MSNBC is airing it at 5 Pacific or not.) It will be interesting to see the effect. I'd be interested to know what the campaign's rationale was for doing this tonight instead of the night before election day.

Before his speech in Pittsburgh Monday, Obama accepts a Steelers jersey from Steelers owner Dan Rooney, who has been campaigning for him in PA and Ohio.

7 Days to Change: The Longest Week

The national tracking polls showed slight movement, but in both directions. Nate Silvers sez sensibly: "If the state polls aren't showing movement toward McCain, then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise. If anything, in fact, the state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia, but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona."

And in the state polls, Al G. notes: "Among states where a candidate has, in the aggregate, fifty percent or more of the vote, Obama counts with 282 Electoral College votes to just 128 for McCain."

If anyone in the Obama campaign is taking the election for granted, they needed to look no further than the candidate. After speaking to a capacity crowd at the Mellon Arena in Pittsburgh, he headed over to Carson Street on the South Side to campaign hq and made some phone calls himself, which he's been doing the past few days before or after other events. (And yeah, I'm enthralled again with imagining all this in places I spent a lot of time when I lived in western PA, like Carson Street. Not the Arena, though. That's new.)

After Pittsburgh, Obama goes to Chester in eastern PA tomorrow--a nice bit of counter-programming as McCain and Palin make a last concerted try for the Commonwealth. So far, no traction is apparent.

The news Monday was pretty grim for McCain and Republicans. Lots of talk about the warfare within the campaign--RNC vs. McCain vs. Palin--and then the Senator Stevens of Alaska verdict: guilty of seven counts, so the senior GOPer in the Senate is now officially a felon. And the Dems look to be closer to the grail of governance goal of 60 seats.

There are concerns about vote suppression in places like Georgia, a stupid ballot in North Carolina, and some nervousness about sparse early voting in Ohio. And of course, concern about too much early voting--if it doesn't represent new voters then it doesn't mean anything, except, of coure, votes. Democrats naturally must find things to worry about--but it is probably true that if Obama wins North Carolina and Florida, and does well in Georgia, it will be despite losing thousands of ballots to screwups and voter suppression.

McCain and Palin continue to play small ball with sloganish attacks, while Obama gradually returns to his inclusive rationale. As Paul Krugman suggests, "As the economic scene has darkened, I’d argue, Americans have rediscovered the virtue of seriousness. And this has worked to Mr. Obama’s advantage, because his opponent has run a deeply unserious campaign."

At this point it seems that everything that can be said has been said, so I suppose it's all about saying it to the right people, and making sure voters don't assume it's so over they don't have to bother to vote. This is a danger, with an electorate that voted twice for GW, anything is possible. But there's also a sense that people really want to make a statement with their vote--a personal one, an historic one... If we can just get through the next week.

8 Days to Change: Final Arguments

Chuck Todd, the numbers guy at NBC, has been cautious about this election--until recently. His startling impressions of tension and discouragement within the McCain campaign last week have since been verified by full-blown viral stories, with a McCain aide referring to Palin as a "diva." But it's his recent observations about the numbers that are the most remarkable.

For the first time, NBC shows that adding up Obama's likely and "leans" gives him more than enough for an electoral win. But Todd points out something even more devastating. Because of Obama's strength in the West, he conceivably could lose Florida AND Ohio AND Pennsylvania, and still win the election.

Most polls show Obama slightly to moderately ahead in Florida and Ohio, and ahead by double digits in PA, with nothing yet in the daily polls to indicate any trend away from him. But that's not all that Todd said.

I heard Todd observe that early voting numbers, especially in the South, suggest to him that African American turnout may eventually be between 98% and 100%. He notes that Georgia is now in play, and there are other states where no polling has been done recently that could also be moving towards Obama.

Now polls show the race is very close in Arizona, McCain's home state. (My source in Sedona, where McCain has one of his homes--apparently the one he lives in most of the time--says there is Obama enthusiasm there, too.) And it's not just states but areas, such as Florida's Gulf Coast, a GOPer stronghold which may be trending Obama.

Not to jinx it or anything, but unless McCain can find something that resonates in the final week, we could be looking at an epic victory.

There are cautionary voices. Todd's counterpart at CNN, Bill Schneider, points out that in some states (like PA) and some national polls, Obama is only a point or so higher, or dead even, with what John Kerry got in 04. It's just that McCain is 7 points or so lower than GW. But while this may be true in PA, for instance, it doesn't account for red states that Obama could win. Obama is also likely to get more votes than Kerry did in red states he still doesn't win, and pile up the popular vote that way as well.

After crowds totalling 150,000 in Colorado Sunday, Obama makes what his campaign bills as his "final argument" in Pittsburgh, PA and Canton, Ohio on Monday. Tuesday Obama is in PA, at Chester. I can't wait for the photos from the Burgh. Some consolation for the Steelers loss Sunday.

10 Days to Change: On Course

Saturday Barack Obama returns to the campaign trail with three events in the West. His absense for most of Thursday and all of Friday didn't hurt him, as the McCain-Palin campaign continued to destroy itself without needing any help. To the point that Politco said that despite some better looking state polls for McCain, Obama won the day Friday.

My snapshot in time at Dreaming Up Daily has the salient details of the Friday, but since this is my day for irrational exhuberance, I'll add this observation made by Dem pollster Paul Maslin in Salon:

"The current Obama margin is real, has been present and generally growing for more than a month, and is predicated on three very firm foundations unlikely to change in the final 10 days of this campaign... From my perspective, barring some unforeseen circumstance in the next 11 days, all that remains to be seen is the margin of victory, and whether, as these polls seem to be hinting, we're headed for a landslide."