Words

I advocated in 2002 for environmentalists to stop talking about global warming and climate change, and start talking about global heating and the Climate Crisis. When Al Gore started using it, the Climate Crisis became preferred.

In the summer of 2004 I passed along a suggestion through someone with access to high levels of the Kerry campaign: the campaign slogan of "A Fresh Start." In the last weeks of the campaign, Kerry was using "A Fresh Start for America" as his slogan. No one ever acknowledged anything.

A few years ago I was interviewed on an Oregon public radio station about issues related to a piece I'd written, "Consuming the Future," and we talked about how to get the country back on track. I suggested that the theme of such an effort should be "We're all in this together." That's become a theme that Barack Obama repeats often.

Then there are little things, that get picked up and passed around, who knows how--and who knows who really came up with them first. I've heard nomenclature from my blogs repeated by Keith Olbermann, for example, although I doubt he reads these. But my readers may have noticed that he's picked up the "Hate Talk Express" title I used for a couple of days. However, this time, even if he stole it from here, he didn't steal it from me. I stole it from the text by a front pager at Daily Kos--and I don't even remember which one.

It's a weird way to participate, the invisible way, and at times it all seems like my fantasy. Which it probably is, but on the other hand, I must be on to...something.

Time to Fight

At a campaign stop in New Hampshire--where it was clear that he has refined his stump speech for the ultimate power of a closer--Obama warned his supporters against complacency. And he's right. The polls are apt to contract (although probably not right away--the last debate bump starts showing up Friday), and even with lots of early voting, the real fight lies ahead.

Fortunately the stage is set, since the Obama campaign paid such attention to organizing and gathering the resources for just this moment. But it's going to take more than hope, or talk, or for that matter, blogging. So even though I've stepped back from most campaign activity--leaving it to the younger generations who frankly are going to do it better--I will be making calls in these final days.

And vigilance plus support of those who are more active are also important. Vigilance for the kind of desperate robo-calls the McCain campaign--not 527 groups, not even the RNC, but the McCain campaign itself--are making. Like this one and this one and these two.

Vigilance for voter suppression tactics, as is happening in Ohio--although this year, it's a Democratic state government, and the Ohio Secretary of State has announced that she's going to fight hard against attempts to disenfranchise 200,000 voters.

Other Thursday news: Five Thirty Eight does its regular mid-monthly projections of battleground states--the last one!--and projects Obama to win 364 electoral votes, with 169 for McCain, and 5 a tossup...The Washington Post endorses Obama: "Mr. Obama has the potential to become a great president." And Lawrence O'Donnell--one of the few voices I attend to, though I don't always agree--predicts that Colin Powell will soon endorse Obama.

About that early voting: there were some interesting reports about how Obama is dominating early voting in five states, and about the lines in Atlanta-- some white voters abandoned them after awhile, but not a single black voter did. In the Five Thirty Eight thread linked above, a comment from Kenyada explained: "I’m not sure you understand. This vote is 400 years in the making...This is not only a vote for a candidate; it is a vote for America, the America we heard about from our parents and their parents, across the generations. Freedom and Liberty sound so trite these days, but I remember those words spoken by my Dad on his way to the March on Washington. January 20th will be a dream fulfilled."

But before January 20 comes November 4, as well as early voting wherever it occurs. There's work ahead. It's time to fight for every vote.

Update: This comprehensive piece in salon notes that the first day of early voting in North Carolina (which was Thursday) saw big turnout, predominately African American. Some battleground states, the piece states, could see as much as half of the vote in early voting. Half the registered voters in Colorado have requested mail-in ballots. Yet states like PA that don't have early voting--and even those that do--may not be prepared for the sheer number of voters on election day.

A study in contrasts--to say the least--after the third presidential debate.

Grand Slam

I have just a few minutes to spare here before I have to do some work I actually get paid for, but the third debate is over, once again all the focus groups and instant polls show Obama won by pretty much the same margin as the first two (or for that matter, the VP debate as well.) He scored well again with Independent voters, and in the two focus groups of undecideds on CNN and Fox, the only movement was to Obama.

It didn't take long for the conventional wisdom to develop among the pundits: Obama was cool, calm and collected, while McCain was angry (an exercise in anger management, David Gergen said). So the verdict is that McCain may have helped himself a bit with the base but not outside it, and the election is pretty much over, barring the unforeseen.

I do have one bone to pick with the CV, at least that part of it expressed on the largely right-leaning lineup that Charlie Rose assembles. One after another, including Charlie, opined that Obama hasn't given a clear idea of what he'll do to address the financial crisis, or how he will approach the question of a recession at the time of huge government deficit.

Well, I hope these folks go back and read the transcript of the debate, because I heard it, loud and clear. Obama said several times that we face tough economic times, and the government will need to set priorities, because we can't do everything we want right away. And he signalled clearly that he was for economic stimulus--as he proposed and as the Democrats in Congress have proposed--and for investing government funds in energy independence and growing a green economy, in healthcare and in education, because these will pay dividends in a strong economy later on.

If and when I see a transcript I'll try to document this, but not tonight. As for the obligatory sports metaphor--I'll pass on the boxing analogies thank you very much--the Philadelphia Phillies weren't the only pennant winners tonight.

McCain Reboot=McCain Repeat


Jon Stewart and The Daily Show hilariously match McCain's "new stump speech" unveiled Monday to his GOPer acceptance speech.

The Good News

Despite the ugliness fomented by the McCain-Palin campaign--and partly because of it--there is more good news. Tuesday's talk was about the CBS/New York Times poll which has Obama with a whopping 14 point lead among likely voters, 53% to 39%.

Is it too good to be true? While it may be an outlyer, Nate Silver believes it's only a modest one. And Tuesday's round of state polls showed similar numbers in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Looking at pollster.com averages, Kos notes that Obama is polling over 50% in states that add up to 308 electoral votes.

But what the New York Times chose to emphasize about its own poll is this: "The McCain campaign’s recent angry tone and sharply personal attacks on Senator Barack Obama appear to have backfired and tarnished Senator John McCain more than their intended target, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll has found....The top reasons cited by those who said they thought less of Mr. McCain were his recent attacks and his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate."

Still, there are other indications that Obama is getting more positive support rather than simply benefitting from negative views of McCain. TMP highlighted a number within the LA Times poll which shows a plurality of voters for the first time say Obama is experienced enough to be President. In the NY Times poll, 7 of 10 said Obama has the right temperament and personality to be President, with McCain breaking even. More than 60% said Obama understood their needs and problems, less than half said that about McCain.

Though there is some danger of complacency, being up in the polls also increases enthusiasm, and that activist attitude--the movement as Obama calls it--plus the unique methods of organization and all the attention paid to it on the ground level are really paying off. For another example, some 17% of Ohio voters have been contacted by Obama advocates--an historic percentage.

And the interest is there, even for the seemingly crazy ideas, like Sarah Silverman's "Great Schlep"--there's this account of an Obama kid going to talk to his grandparents about Obama, and winding up talking to 100 retirees who wanted to hear him. Perhaps even more powerfully, there are events like this one leading to marches to the polls to vote in early voting states.

Meanwhile, McCain has announced that tonight's debate won't be a "game-changer," a cliche that will forever be associated with this campaign. If he doesn't come away with an inconceivably major victory, it could be a game ender.

Tuesday on the Hate Talk Express

While the rabble was being whipped up by a rabid right party hack before a Palin hate, during a diatribe on Obama, someone in the crowd shouted "Kill him."

From Keith Olbermann's Special Comment: "Obviously, Senator, you haven't heard your own speeches, and Gov. Palin's, and what people shout during them. And you haven't heard your state GOP Chair in Virginia, Jeffrey Frederick, giving talking points to 30 of your field-operatives heading out to canvass voters in Gainesville, Virginia. With a reporter present, telling them to try to forge a connection between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden to emphasize bombings and terrorism. And you haven't heard those volunteers, your volunteers Sen. McCain, shout back "and he won't salute the flag" and "we don't even know where Sen. Obama was really born."
Sen. McCain, these people are speaking for you!...

You, sir, are responsible for a phalanx of individuals who are shouting fire in a crowded theatre. There are some things to respect and honor about you, Sen. McCain. But on this, you're not only a fraud, Senator but you are tacitly inciting lunatics to violence. If you want to again grand-stand and suspend your campaign here's your big chance. Suspend your campaign now, until you, or somebody else, gets some control over it and it ceases to be a clear and present danger to the peace of this nation."

Stratergery

The McCain campaign was reeling all weekend, with one GOPer talker after another GOPer politician badmouthing and abandoning them. But there are still 21 days to the election. They can make some moves. Unfortunately for them, so can the Obama campaign. And the moves they made on Monday tells you the difference in their strategic thinking.

McCain went for a reboot, a restart of his underdog image. Unfortunately, his basic line--that he's a fighter--and even some of the actual lines (Obama is "measuring the drapes" for the Oval Office) are the latest in a long series of thefts from the Hillary Clinton primary campaign. So what does it say about a campaign that it compulsively steals ideas that have already proven not to work?

Obama on the other hand, who might be tempted to sit on a substantial lead, took the initiative by making several new proposals for an immediate economic "rescue plan for the middle class." The brilliance of this move is in several areas. First, he's telling people what he wants to do, just as they're getting used to the idea that he may well become President. He's zeroed in on ground-level changes, instead of financial institutions. Beyond the public measures he proposed, he also talked about public and private responsibility, about ending the era of living beyond our means. That reassures Independents and Republicans, as well as making sense. He's given people specifics they've asked for, but he's again done it in a larger context, in his call for change. In his themes of we're all in this together, and the importance of this political moment. "Believe in yourselves, believe in each other, and believe in the future."

It is brilliant as well in its timing. It gives Obama something to focus on in the final debate--not with a single surprise proposal, as McCain did, but with an integrated and thought-out plan he introduced in detail. And this initiative may have stolen the initiative from McCain, whose surrogates were loudly announcing all weekend that he would be making new economic proposals on Monday. He didn't, perhaps because his campaign got wind of Obama's intent, although the Obama campaign was typically silent about it much in advance.

Then on Monday McCain's campaign stated that McCain wasn't going to make any new economic proposals--but then suddenly it was announced that McCain was giving a speech on Tuesday with new proposals. So McCain is in the position of reacting, and having his business-friendly tax proposals (as they are rumored to be) contrasted with Obama's emphasis on jobs and Main Street.

With the poll number continuing to get better for Obama, with the Obama campaign outspending and outworking McCain, there is no let up, and Team Obama is continuing to be aggressive. Meanwhile contradictory messages continue to come from what's left of the McCain campaign, including on Wednesday's debate. Some suggest McCain will again stay away from the Ayers stuff that is proving so toxic to his approval numbers, while others promise that McCain will bring it up. McCain has himself raised the stakes and the expectations by promising supporters to "whip [Obama's] you know what."

Wednesday is the last time McCain may have the attention of a large TV audience, assuming people are still going to watch. If he loses this debate, there is no strategery in the world that can help him. And even if he wins, or some external events shake things up, it may only make his defeat a little closer.

But it's also no time for complacency for the Obama campaign--which seems to know that very well--or for supporters. It may still get even uglier (somebody in the McCain campaign says they are saving the really good stuff for the last two weeks) and other campaigns--apparently including Kerry's--thought they had it in the bag but did not. Whatever nervousness we may naturally have, however, the Obama campaign is earning our confidence. They really did that on Monday.

Monday on the Hate Talk Express

QUESTION: The chair of the Republican Party in Virginia has said, quote, in Time magazine, "both Barack Obama and Osama Bin Laden have friends that have bombed the Pentagon. That is scary." Is that appropriate for a state party chair to be saying?

MCCAIN: "I have to look at the context of his remarks.

I have always repudiated any comments that have been made that were inappropriate about Senator Obama. The fact is that William Ayers was a terrorist and bomber and unrepentant. I don't care about that. But Senator Obama ought be the candid and truthful about his relationship with Mr. Ayers in whose living room Senator Obama launched his campaign and Senator Obama said he was just a guy in the neighborhood."

What Election Are They Covering?

Dangling at the top of Daily Kos on Sunday was the latest Research 2000 daily tracking poll on the presidential race, showing: Obama 53% McCain 40%. Once again, it's not just the 13 point margin, it's the 3 points over 50%. It's McCain below 41%.

And at one point under that number, the Kos himself noted how the major media are doing their best to ignore what the numbers are saying. He referenced Chris Bowers showing that according to the Washington Post, Every state in which McCain has a lead, even if it's just 2.2%, is a "leaning Republican". Every state in which Obama has the lead, even if it's over 10 percent, is a "battleground". Bowers quotes 5 respected electoral projections, all of which have Obama winning handily--but not the major networks or newspapers. His conclusion: Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely)."

Maybe that's why they paid so little attention to the finding of VP candidate Palin's abuse of power as Gov. of Alaska, which is against Alaska law, voted unanimously out of a committee comprised of 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats. And about which Palin was permitted to lie repeatedly.

But the numbers are getting relentless. According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado, "The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point." And what one numbers person after another says--which is pretty much what a lot of Republicans are also saying--is that while it is not absolutely impossible for McCain to win...it is most unlikely. The only time since modern polling started that a presidential candidate was behind by 8 points this late, and came back to win, was Reagan in 1980, who was the change candidate in a change year. What seems to be happening then is that the change candidate this year has made the sale a couple of weeks earlier than Reagan did.

And now the Washington Post/ABC News poll is out with that same astonishing 53% for Obama, to 43% for McCain.

Here's another number from Sunday (that Reagan didn't have): Obama got 15 newspaper endorsements, and McCain got none. "In three weeks, Americans will be called upon to make an exceptional judgment worthy of the times. The forces of history appear to invite boldness and the Post-Gazette believes they should be heeded by voting for the only authentic, fresh agent of change in this race, Barack Obama." --said the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. Among the other endorsements: the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Asheville NC Citizen Times, and the Tennessean.

We're apparently going to hear a new number soon: a record-breaking month of September for the Obama campaign in donations and probably in the number of donors.

How about the numbers on the McCain-Palin attacks? Apart from the thorough debunking of the Ayers assertions in their campaign ad, public polls show that the attacks aren't working for McCain-Palin--instead the attacks are working against them. The Obama campaign has its own private polls that show the blowback on McCain-Palin is even worse, with their unfavorability ratings shooting above 50%.

The ugliness may be taking on a life of its own--which is what many people fear--but at least the pedigree of the hate-mongers is being exposed. Republicans who have been swimming with their heads above the slime for years are now drowning in it, with nobody to save them but racists, anti-Semites, hate-filled fundamentalists, secessionist nutjobs and exploitable morons.

Some of them--it looks like many of them--are trying frantically to get out of the scum pool before it's too late. McCain is losing GOPer leadership support, notably now in Florida, which he absolutely must win. Notes the Independent: "Senior members of the Republican party are in open mutiny against John McCain's presidential campaign, after a disastrous period which has seen Barack Obama solidify his lead in the opinion polls."

Democrats on the other hand are getting as close to Obama as they can, and talking openly of a 100 seat advantage in the House and a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate, though neither of those are yet as likely as an electoral college win for Obama.

The Obama campaign knows the numbers, but they know--and have always known--the numbers that count are the voted that are counted. So the ground game is amping up, Obama is campaigning in early voting states, even as the ads increase every week. And the campaign is reportedly going to announce today some voter protection initiatives to make sure registered voters get to vote, and their votes get counted.

I thought I was beyond shock, but the complete news blackout on the official conclusion of the Alaska legislature that Gov. Sarah Palin has unlawfully abused her power is simply mind-boggling. What would be happening if the shoe were on the other foot is the subject of this diary at Kos, which is also the source of this illustration.

Two Fears and Three Pretty Big Embraces

John McCain may have tried to dial back the rhetoric yesterday, but the controversy over it continued, and is likely to be part of the Sunday talk show dialogue. For the fear that McCain and Palin have whipped up, and the fear and hate demonstrated at their rallies, has touched off public talk about another fear: of violence directed as supporters of Obama, and most specifically against Obama himself.

Rep. John Lewis was the most noted voice on the subject Saturday, prompting denials from McCain and partial agreement from the Obama campaign, which doesn't believe that race is otherwise going to be much of a factor in the actual election. While Lewis raised the historical spector of a church bombing and George Wallace's rhetoric, in his Sunday column Frank Rich sticks with the history of the McCain-Palin campaign and where it might be leading. He chronicles the escalating rhetoric, from the Republican convention through last week, culminating in just how the Bill Ayers association was played: "That’s a far cry from simply accusing Obama of being a guilty-by-association radical leftist. Obama is being branded as a potential killer and an accessory to past attempts at murder. “Barack Obama’s friend tried to kill my family” was how a McCain press release last week packaged the remembrance of a Weather Underground incident from 1970 — when Obama was 8."

Update: Here's another narrative on this subject by Time's Michael Scherer, who predicts "This election is going to end ugly."

It all clearly plays into the "he's a Muslin" Barack Hussein Obama mantras, which are often rationalizations for racism and hate. All of this is not exactly coming as news to African Americans whose names aren't John Lewis. It was fear for Obama's life that caused a lot to hang back from supporting him, along with their skepticism that a black man could ever be elected. Now that the primaries and the polls have produced some hope about the latter, the former is still on their minds.

For instance, at the very start of a Philadelphia Inquirer story about Obama's four campaign appearances in largely black areas of Philadelphia on Saturday: Helen Henderson, 82 years old and African American, sat in the sunshine at 52d and Locust Streets yesterday, waiting for Barack Obama to arrive. She said she felt excited, honored and blessed. "I never thought I'd live to see a black man in the White House," said the retired nurse, who lives in University City. "I sent him a small contribution in the mail. I owe it to him because he's taking a chance for us. I pray for him."

But Obama had big crowds everywhere he went in Philadelphia Saturday, while Sarah Palin (also in Philly) was getting loudly booed at a Flyers hockey game.
So just as there is conviction in the Obama campaign that in the end it will all turn out well, there is hope as well as fear in those with historical consciousness. The Inquirer story ends with another point of view: " At Vernon Park, David Wilcots, 46, an environmental engineer, contemplated the prospect of an Obama victory, which he and other African Americans now believe is a probability. On the one hand, Wilcots said, the venom expressed by the crowds at Republican rallies last week makes him fear for Obama's safety. On the other, he marvels at what might transpire on Nov. 4. "It wouldn't resolve everything in race relations, but it would mean we'd reached a milestone in this country thought to be impossible a few short years ago," he said. "America would be embracing as president a black person, a person of mixed-race background, and a person one generation removed from Africa. Those are three pretty big embraces."

The only even theoretical road to victory for McCain is a big national change. Where exactly he campaigns makes little difference. But with a double digit national lead, Barack Obama can afford to talk globally and campaign locally. For the past few days he's been in Ohio, with a few big rallies but mostly in smaller places, where he doesn't necessarily get national media, but lots and lots of local media. This Times blog item tells the story. The photo is from the NYTimes, too.

Fatal Friday

Reviewing the day's polls, Nate Silver wrote: "With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive."

As it would turn out, this would be the high point of the day for the McCain campaign.

(I have to flag Nate's use of the word "presently" to mean "currently." Then again, about the only person I know who uses the word correctly is Keith Olbermann, who uses it to mean "coming up soon.")

Later the Newsweek poll came out, with Obama ahead 52% to 41%. Lawrence O'Donnell would presently point out that 41% is about as low as you can go in a national poll as long as you have an R or a D after your name.

Then again, Obama was up 52% to 40% in the Research 2000 daily tracker. He
was 51-41 in Gallup tracking and 50-45 in Rasmussen.

Through the day, McCain faced mounting criticism--from officials within his own party. A congressional supporter called the campaign out for their inflammatory rhetoric. The Republican governor of Michigan said: "He is not the McCain I endorsed," said Milliken, reached at his Traverse City home Thursday. "He keeps saying, 'Who is Barack Obama?' I would ask the question, 'Who is John McCain?' because his campaign has become rather disappointing to me." A poll of Republican insiders showed that 80% of them believe Obama will win.

Then McCain attempted to pivot slightly from the recent attacks he and Palin have been making to propose something economical: a fairly arcane but decent sounding proposal concerning seniors and their retirement accounts, which quickly turned out to be pretty useless--apparently of benefit mostly to people 100 years old.

But as McCain's supporters continued to express their racism and wing-nuttery at his rallies, McCain was forced--no fewer than three times--to caution them to be respectful, that they don't have to be afraid of Obama as President of the United States, and that he is a decent family man. At at least one point while he was saying this, he was booed. On Rachel, Ana Marie Cox of Time, who is traveling with the McCain campaign, said that while there are always some crazies at rallies, she was finding that McCain's rallies are now totally comprised of "wing-nuts."

Then while the evening cable shows were digesting these events, the Troopergate report finally was released. A committee of 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats in the Alaska legislature unanimously voted to release it, and it found Governor Palin guilty of abuse of power under state law. The best quick summary of its findings I've seen is Michael Scherer's here.

It happened that Lawrence O'Donnell was already being interviewed on Keith (Keithless Keith tonight, David Schuster hosting), and had already said of the increasing pressure on McCain to denounce the violent responses of his crowds, and the subsequent undercutting of his own stealth point in affirming that noone needs to be afraid of Obama as President, that sometimes campaigns box themselves in so that they have no good options, and the McCain campaign has done just this.

There are a lot of pundits out there, but O'Donnell is one I listen to, because he is informed, very savvy and has a point of view different from the others. Of course I don't always agree--but he's been dead right on this sequence of events.

After a few minutes during which he evidently speed-read the report, O'Donnell returned with the idea that this undercut and even destroyed Palin's credibility to attack Obama, to differentiate herself and McCain as the clean candidates who wouldn't be business as usual in Washington. She was becoming a drag on the ticket, as her approval ratings went straight down, he said, and now she really is a liability. And the report has come out at the worst possible time for the Republican ticket.

I think it was O'Donnell who pointed out that this possibility was known at the time McCain chose her--the investigation was already underway. Indeed, I was among those who discounted her as a possible candidate because of this investigation. But McCain chose her anyway, he rolled the dice, and he lost.

So what's the good news for the McCain campaign? It's Friday, and McCain usually takes the weekend off.

(On the other hand, there is this pretty amazing rumor.)

Playing With Hate

We're hours away from the investigator's report on whether Governor Palin abused her power. Judging from the preemptive claims that came from the McCain campaign, they expect the report to be damning.

Probably not so damning as the extent of the Palins entanglement with Rabid Rightists in Alaska (as well as secessionists of the South) that make our worst seem like bunny rabbits in comparison. Or VP candidate Palin's own Fascistic rhetoric, and the loud shout-outs of racism infecting the McCain campaign from top to bottom that even the major media is noting.

Race is the topic of the day it seems, and whether Obama has a ceiling to his support, whether the Bradley effect is still real or relevant, or even if race is a factor in just one direction.

Racism works especially well when the rich and powerful are able to use it to divide the middle class and poor people, and divert them from blaming the real culprits causing their plight--namely the rich and powerful. That could be happening in this economic crisis, but it probably hasn't had time to build that way just yet. And it may not at all this time. People are looking at Wall Street first, and the subtext of blaming this all on people of color who got houses they couldn't pay for hasn't caught on as the main explanation.

But the Republicans are still trying, especially those local pols who are trying to position Obama as a street thug. Unfortunately for them, except in a few isolated pockets (and even they have television), white people are experienced enough with the variety of non-white individuals and families to differentiate (as opposed to discriminate).

Still, it is a time for vigilance, and all racism must be pointed out and condemned. Even if it continues, such vigilance may encourage a purging of this poison from the body politic.

This racism and other will go on at some level for the rest of the campaign, peaking on election day in mail boxes stuffed with hatred (and that New Yorker cover.) Whether McCain and Palin themselves can keep doing this is still an open question. Some pundits believe they have nothing else, and expect to see it in the debate Wednesday. But one, Lawrence O'Donnell maintains that it is polling so badly that McCain will give it up by the time of the debate.

Maybe so. O'Donnell says McCain is too impatient to stay with it, and that may be so. But his violent and abusive temper, revealed in this incident of screaming at a woman at a Vegas craps table, is not only a disqualification for the presidency, it could yet mean more incitement to violence.

Update: TPM notes that Obama has recognized the McCain-Palin rallys at which "It's easy to rile up a crowd by stoking anger and division." First Read quotes this and the McCain response, accusing Obama of trying to silence ordinary Americans. So I guess that makes them official Fascists. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll asked about the Ayers attacks and found that people aren't interested.

Game, Set... Match?

Barack Obama won the debate, and John McCain lost it. And America is getting used to the idea of President Obama.

Obama's victory was the clear verdict in the polls, the focus groups, the pundits--even more clearly than the first debate. The numbers do prove out my suspicion that voters have already made up their minds, but I do think this debate wasn't irrelevant. Obama looked and talked like the President, especially the President we need now. McCain looked and talked like another nightmare.

My first (pleasant) surprise came early, when Obama was the first to jump on corporate greed and today's AIG testimony. Completely took it away from McCain, who harped on the topic in the first debate.

As I foresaw, Obama was very comfortable with the so-called Town Hall format, and performed much better than the aimlessly wandering McCain. Although either the camera placement or the format or the TV director couldn't keep up with the candidates, and visually much of the debate was looking at the backs of heads and people walking out of frame. It was dizzying at times, and I wouldn't be surprised if people tuned out.

Pundits noted that Obama tied McCain to Bush early and often, but he also related all of his answers to people's lives--very important. I expected that, and he did it even better than at the first debate. And get this: when McCain didn't mention the "middle class" once in the first debate, Team Obama made a campaign ad pointing it out. So what did McCain do this time? He didn't say the words "middle class"again---not even once.

Obama was particularly strong on health care (Brokaw threw it up there--is health care a right, a privilege or a responsibility? McCain whiffed with responsibility, Obama homered with health care is a right), on taxes, on the moral imperative to stop genocide but our lack of standing to lead in the world because of Iraq and Bush diplomacy, on the Climate Crisis as the most significant crisis of our time, and on the call to service.

I'm not entirely sure if McCain is on board with his campaign's "racially tinged" negative blather that's been inciting crowds, but he sure looks racist: he suggested that a black questioner probably hadn't ever heard of Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, he pointed to Obama and said "that one," and after the debate, he left Obama's outstretched hand dangling.

The internals of the polls and the questions with the focus groups show that voters are getting more comfortable with Obama, none more dramatically than this focus group, according to Amy Sullivan of TIME: Even more dramatic was the shift in the voters’ personal reactions to the two candidates. Before the debate, McCain had a 48/46 favorability rating; that improved to 56/36 by the end. But that’s about where Obama started the evening—54/36. After an hour and a half, Obama’s favorability numbers were 80/14. As Joe Biden would say, let me repeat that: 80% of the undecided voters had favorable views of Obama and only 14% saw him negatively for a net rating of +66. Not even Bill Clinton got such a warm response in town hall formats."

Nate Silver concluded: " I apologize if I sound like a broken record. But once again, Obama won the debate according to essentially every objective metric. And recall that, even if the debate were a tie, this would not have helped John McCain; he needed a clear win tonight. Instead, he's continued to dig himself into a deeper electoral hole."

That pretty much says it all.

But we can begin to see what's happening in the bigger picture as well as the constructive outcome in this suggestion by E.J. Dionne: " McCain kept highlighting the conservative past with his reverent references to Ronald Reagan. But at the moment, the conservative past is on trial. It represents the era Obama unmistakably wants to end. " We are clearly at the end of something. How fortunate we are that in Obama we have a capable leader with the ideas and ability to take us to the beginning of something new.

By the way, others are observing what I predicted for this debate: that in the town hall format, McCain did not (because he could not) go negative in the same terms as Palin and he have on the stump in the past few days. But this is not the last debate. I fully expect McCain himself to go completely negative in the most strident way next Wednesday in the final debate.

Final pre-debate thoughts

I look for McCain to run strong against corporate greed. The AIG hearing today gives him the perfect hook. I look for Barack to hone in on middle class concerns, but he may also have to get a bit technical about the financial markets. He knows more about them, and is trusted more on that issue. I also expect him to pivot to health care whenever possible, and that's where we might have fireworks.

More Numbers and Debate Prep

Today, Nate Silver sez: As the political world's focus shifts to the second presidential debate in Nashville, Barack Obama continues to expand his lead upon John McCain in all of our projection metrics, and now rates as almost a 9:1 favorte to win the election in November.

Both state and national polls are contributing to this result... Obama also gets a monster number from SurveyUSA in Pennsylvania, which has him leading by 15 points, up from a 6-point lead two weeks ago. SurveyUSA polls can be a bit volatile, but with that said, we now have multiple polls (Quinnipiac, Morning Call, West Chester/NPR) suggesting that Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. We also show Pennsylvania moving back ahead of Michigan, projecting an 8.7-point win for Obama there as opposed to 8.4 points in the Wolverine State. ..McCain needs a game changer. Or two. Or three. Tonight's debate, which features McCain's preferred town hall format, might be his best remaining opportunity.

Yesterday, Nate Silver sez: Are John McCain's negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama's support? They certainly aren't yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year...

The tracking poll numbers are pretty stable today, but it's the voter registration numbers beginning to come in that are potentially significant. Democrats are registering millions of new and switched voters. In PA, Republicans actually have lost significant numbers.

In Florida, this means that the Dems have about a quarter of a million net more voters this election than in 04. Ohio has registered a half million new voters, but there's no party affliliation breakdown, and it's the one state where early voting (which they did for the first time) doesn't appear to be meeting expectations. Of all the battleground states, Ohio appears the most troublesome. But Obama doesn't have to win Ohio if he wins Florida.

The buzz today, besides being about the economy, is about the campaigns going negative, and in the case of the McCain and Palin crowds yesterday, turning ugly and racist. In terms of the debate, Tom Brokaw apparently was not party to the agreement so he may be asking followup questions. He's been criticized recently for being biased towards McCain.

A quick fact check of McCain's most recent speech by the NY Times shows that it's full of inaccuracies and lies. Joe Klein notes that its "hyperbolic tone" isn't going to help settle down the stock market, and the fear that apparently is motivating a lot of the global nosedive. Will McCain say this stuff to Obama's face tonight? It's going to be fascinating. If McCain believes that going negative is his only chance, he'll be defeating himself as well as possibly tarnishing Obama. But if he maintains a positive tone, what does he actually have to propose, or say?

50%+ and Debate Prep

There's this belief among pols that once a candidate crosses the 50% threshhold, it means that the electorate is ready, and it will take a lot to defeat that candidate. After approaching it but hardly ever going over it for months, Barack Obama has been crossing that threshhold pretty regularly in the past week or two.

We saw it in the average of tracking polls yesterday, and he's been above 50% in a couple of them for days in a row. Now we're seeing it in state polls. A new PA poll, he's at 52% to 42. In the latest round of Rasmussen battlegrounds, he's at 50 or above in Florida (52%!), Missouri, Colorado and Virginia. In the Washington Post poll, he's at 51% in Ohio. In a Public Policy poll he's at 50% in North Carolina. Survey USA has him at 53% in New Hampshire and Virginia. And so on.

And while the NBC poll has him just under 50 at 49, the new CNN poll has him at 53% to 45.

It's that 50%+ as well as the leads themselves--and the consistency over polls and from state to state--that is beginning to convince the punditocracy that the electorate has made up its mind.

So it looks like Tuesday's debate is either McCain's last chance or too late anyway. It's a moderated Town Hall format, which is supposed to be McCain's strength but that seems to me to be one of those conventional crocks. McCain has had his worst moments in that format, he hasn't been spontaneous or effective in them for months, and the last thing he wants to do is to take questions from voters, since they are apt to be about the economy, etc.

The rules: Tom Brokaw is the moderator, which may mean some McCain-friendly questions. Questions will come from three sources, though Brokaw essentially chooses them all: they come from him, from "uncommitted likely" voters in the room (who ask only the question they've been chosen to ask) and from the Internet. The questioners are supposed to be demographically "representative" as judged by the Gallup organization.

There are to be no follow-ups (not even by the moderator) and no direct interaction between the candidates. They can move around a bit, but only in designated areas (in their own town halls, both McCain and Obama tend to pace.) Nothing said in anything I've yet read about what the time limits are, and whether both candidates get a shot at every question.

It's going to be hard for McCain to go negative, and even harder for him not to look unresponsive to voters if he does. Independent and uncommitted voters hate negative stuff in debates. Despite media mumblers who long ago stopped actually looking at campaign video and listening to what the candidates say, Obama is very comfortable in this format, and he relates very well to voters. Above all, he really answers their questions.

What's going to be very interesting to me are the snap poll and focus group results. If they favor Obama by about the same margin as they favored him and Biden in the first two debates, that to me is very good evidence that voters have indeed made up their mind, and everything they see now is through that mindset. (I don't believe incidentally that the CNN focus group of uncommitted voters is made up of all uncommitted voters. Because as soon as they commit, they're off the island. They aren't on TV anymore.)

What can we expect then during the debate? McCain has to come with something new, something positive, and show some understanding of economic problems. Blaming it all on earmarks and gubment spending won't wash. Obama should have more to say about the financial crisis that's up to the minute--past the bailout vote and Blue Monday at the stock market. He's also likely to crank it up over McCain's positions on deregulation, health care, Medicare and Social Security. But my guess is that he'll wait for McCain to throw the first punch, or just make the first assertion that Obama can counter.

After the debate, Obama heads for Indiana and Ohio.

Gamble

The polls for Obama are not only great, they're getting better. Now the average of the four tracking polls has him above 50%, and 8 points ahead. Two state polls in Virginia show him ahead there, one by a substantial margin. And another poll has him ahead in North Carolina by 6 points.

Update: The NBC poll announced late today has Obama ahead by 6 points nationally, 49% to 43%. NBC has pretty consistently shown the race tighter than other polls have. This poll also found that Obama and Biden won their debates by a margin of 50-29.

But the wheels were turning at both campaigns over the weekend. For some weird reason, the McCainers actually announced that they were changing the subject from the economy and going after Obama. Maybe they didn't count on this, but Team Obama read these stories. So even as VP candidate Palin was starting the push by latching on to the NY Times story about Obama and Bill Ayers that conveniently ran that day (along with several anti-Palin screeds, which somehow she didn't mention), the Obama campaign was pushing back. Hard.

Obama zeroed in on the tactic on the stump. He described it as a smear campaign. There was a quick ad (the one just below this post.) Surrogates began fighting fire with fire--when Ayers came up, Paul Begala had the name of a shadowy McCain associate. Then the news trickled out that surrogates would be invoking the Keating Five. And then the big deal: the Obama campaign openly promoting a web site and 13 minute video (unveiled today) about McCain and the Keating Five. And here's the site. Today McCain himself went on the attack, in what's likely to be a preview of his part of the debate tomorrow.

Each of these strategies is a gamble that could help or hurt their campaigns. In responding quickly--and even pre-emptively--the Obama campaign tried to outflank McCain's new strategy. Palin's first attack got some bad reviews, including the AP analysis that it was "unsubstantiated and carried a racially tinged subtext that John McCain himself may come to regret." But cable news was repeating Palin's weekend attacks all morning.

For Obama, there's the risk of blunting his positive appeal with a negative counterattack against McCain, and turning off Independents, even as Democrats are cheered. There's of course also the risk of letting the attacks go unchallenged.

Since the attacks on Obama aren't new, do they have any actual force? Since the attacks on McCain are new--and in the case of the Keating Five, substantively related to the economic crisis reflected in a global market plunge today--do they have more force? Will McCain's objections even be listened to, or will they be discounted as desperate, and work against him?

Or have voters already made up their minds and it's all sound and fury signifying nothing? Since the VP debate did not cut into Obama's lead in the tracking polls at all, it is unlikely to stem the growing numbers in the state polls. McCain's debate performance tomorrow may be his last chance, or it may be too late.

There are also reports I pick up here and there of enormous enthusiasm for Obama across the country, especially among the campaign's well-organized volunteers. Today is the last day for new registration, so all their efforts will turn to early voting and election day.