The NBA Finals enter the fourth game Thursday with the Lakers ahead 2-1. What's often fun about the finals is the unlikely heroes, never more clearly than in the third game, when "Big Baby" almost was the difference for Boston but Derek Fisher obviously was for the Lakers with a career fourth quarter. Fisher is not really all that unlikely--not like Trevor Ariza last year, for example. He's usually good for winning one game in a series, and he did that with a career fourth quarter on Tuesday. As for the Lakers bench as a whole, they've been a pleasant surprise. Luke Walton's defense definitely contributed Tuesday, and other bench players have made key baskets, stops, blocks and steals during the finals.

But the series will eventually come down to the stars, and so I expect Boston's stars to be firing on full throttle Thursday, and I expect they'll win game 4. After that, time favors the Lakers, mostly because of Kobe Bryant, although Gasol is likely to have a dominant game before it's over. Whether fortune favors the Lakers is another question, but I do expect the officials to not be quite the decisive factor they've been in the first three games.

As for the skeptics (like me) who didn't see why the Lakers would trade a young and valiant talent like Ariza for the volatile and older Ron Artest, the answer may be as simple as the match-up of Artest guarding Paul Pierce. Pierce can't muscle him as he could (and did) Ariza or even Kobe. Artest is keeping him at bay.

Andrew Bynum has been the most pleasant surprise, showing stamina, will against injury, and great attitude. He was a force in each game, especially Tuesday, and especially when he guarded Kevin Garnett. Lamar Odum had his best game Tuesday but not the best he is capable of. I'll even repeat the commentator mantra that when he has it going, the Lakers are almost unbeatable.

Though the Lakers sometimes sag in the middle games, they've shown in this year's playoffs that once they solve the other team, they get stronger as the series goes on. I expect them to win the fifth game in Boston and win the championship in the sixth game back in L.A.

NBA: Order is Restored, and NBA and TV network execs can exhale and plan a more expensive vacation as the most fabled match-up in the league is happening after all: both the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers won their game 6 and both won their conference finals, 4 games to 2. They will face each other--and probably a huge viewing audience--for the NBA championship.

For Boston the victory came at home, after two defeats. For the Lakers, their pivotal (and way too exciting) fifth game victory at home was followed two nights later by a pretty convincing victory over the Suns on the road.

Though the historic rivalry of two solid organizations has been repeated often, there have been surprises in how the playoffs have gone so far. First, and the biggest surprise, is that Boston is even in the finals. At best, they were the experts' third choice, behind the two teams they defeated, Cleveland and Orlando. But they are healthy for the first time, peaking at the right time. Their game 5 fatigue--especially Rondo's--disappeared in the sixth game, which they dominated.

The Lakers are supposed to be here, but there were doubts about them, too, because of how poorly they finished the regular season. What may surprise some more is Kobe Bryant. Commentators suggested that he's past his prime, and that LeBron James is the best player in the league. But through the conference finals, Bryant showed that he is still the best. Different perhaps--with more assists and not quite as many points or spectacular shots--but he's running a winning team, and when he needs to, he can take over a game. He's acknowledged as the best finisher, and he has a chance at his fifth championship--no player other than Michael Jordan and a few of his Bulls teammates have that distinction.

But it's not going to be easy. Smart money is on the Celtics. However, the Lakers have home court, and if they win the first game--this Thursday--then they have to be the favorite. Everyone is gearing up for a long series. Wonder if that's another surprise in store.

Suns-Magic?

A funny thing happened to the Celtics-Lakers final. First the Lakers lost to the Suns in Phoenix, but Boston bailed them out by blowing the sweep and losing their game 4 at home. Then the Lakers bailed them out by losing again, and tonight Boston lost game 5 on the road.

Now the momentum is clearly with the Suns and the Magic. The Suns beat the Lakers in pretty much the same way in game 4 as game 3--getting a lead, and winning the fourth quarter after they'd lost it, thanks especially to their bench, which finally showed up big as they did in earlier series. Now this series is tied 2-2, the Suns know they can beat the Lakers, and the Lakers are not entirely healthy.

But even though Boston has to win only one game out of the next two, they may be in even more trouble. They lost game 4 in overtime and looked tired, and they've looked tired ever since. Their key player, point guard Rondo, seems to be playing hurt, and Glen Davis and sub Marquis Daniels both suffered concussions to the point of blacking out. Age and injuries have always been the question marks for the Celtics this year.

Both Boston and LA pretty much have to win their next game. In the West series, the fifth game is usually decisive, and the Lakers are at home. In the East, the Celtics will have to hope that home court encourages the officials to give them a break, and maybe even reign in Dwight Howard's guided missile elbows, which knocked out Davis and have otherwise been conspicuous weapons.

Otherwise, the NBA may get what it really doesn't want: a Phoenix-Orlando final.

You can see why the Phoenix Suns' coach wants a time out, and not only because Kobe Bryant just hit a three pointer (with Jack applauding.) The Lakers are up 2 games to none, and Laker fans were heard chanting "We Want Boston!" For in the surprise of the playoffs so far, the Boston Celtics are not only in the Eastern finals, but also up 2-0. Though it seems even more impressively, since they won both games in Orlando, where the Magic haven't lost twice in a row all season, it's only slightly more so: the Celtics have been a more impressive road team than home team this year. Still...

It seems quite likely now that the NBA finals will be Lakers-Celtics, and the NBA's wet dream. It's the most storied rivalry in pro basketball, and arguably in all sports. I remember watching their finals match-ups back in the day when the games weren't even broadcast live--they were tape-delayed for late night, since the networks weren't sure NBA basketball was going to get an audience. (And no, this wasn't in the 19th century; more like the 1970s.)

It was between those finals that I switched from being a Celtics fan (since I'd lived in Cambridge and worked in Boston) to the Lakers. I just thought Magic was magic, Kareem was incredible, and I loved watching James Worthy soar. Those were the Showtime Lakers, and though I rooted against them once more--when Michael Jordan was leading the Bulls against them--I've been a Lakers fan since.

The Lakers are motivated for this series with the Suns, and they'll be even more motivated against the Celtics (if that's what happens), since Boston humiliated them in the last finals they played. The Suns apparently can't play defense, and the Lakers are showing a previously latent ability to score a lot of points, but defense is what both Boston and L.A. are really good at. If it happens, it could be a classic series.

It might even be enough to draw attention away from speculating on where LeBron James will wind up next season. His last two games with Cleveland were humiliating; the team just flat out gave up, and I don't see him returning there. The city must be suicidal right now, and if King James leaves, they'll also lose a major force in their economy. It's amazing what one player has done there, and sad as well. The question now seems to be whether a zillionaire Russian (about whom little is known) with ambitions to make the New Jersey Nets into a global brand is going to pony up the cash to tempt LeBron. Maybe if he lands Dwayne Wade as well. The New York Knicks are literally banking on getting James, and if he doesn't go there, it's another suicidal city, or at least franchise. The other team that's mentioned is the Bulls. There are several gaudy possibilities for combinations of big name free agents, and I'm guessing that LeBron will have to be promised at least one to switch teams. And Cleveland will have to enter that sweepstakes: new big name players and a new coach. I can see why sports talkers are salivating. But Boston-L.A. might divide their attention for a few weeks.

So I'm back talking to myself about sports, which tells me that I have been watching the playoffs, the Lakers, after all. I didn't see much of the first round, where Oklahoma tested them as I expected, but they rose to the occasion. I saw more of the four game sweep of the Jazz, and enough of one game won by the Phoenix Suns--their next opponent--to think this is going to be a tougher series.

In some ways the Jazz series prepared them--they have taller guys inside than the Suns as they did the Jazz, and the Suns also run the pick and roll a lot. The difference could be the bench, because the Suns' bench was really strong in their series, and the Lakers' not so much. But Phil Jackson did hit on something of a winning formula by mixing bench players with starters when he wanted to rest other starters. But the Lakers are playing with intensity and without much of the lackadaisical approach that left a sour taste to the season, and Kobe is quietly coming back to his usual form. They're more entertaining than I'd feared.

While the Lakers can't look past the Suns to the East(ern teams), I can. The big surprise is how vulnerable Cleveland is in their series with Boston. Right now they're down 3-2 with a very bad loss at home--the New York Times reported there was a lot of booing of the team and specifically of King James. If that was his last game in Cleveland this season, it's probably his last game in Cleveland as a member of that city's team. But depending on his elbow and general health, he could have a big enough game tomorrow to even the series, and then it's back to Cleveland, so you can't quite count them out yet. Still...even if they win, they look pretty vulnerable to Orlando, which is dominating. It could well be a Lakers-Orlando rematch for the Finals.

Something Fishy in This Tea

The other night on Rachel Maddow, Gov. Ed Rendell of PA made an important point about media coverage of the Tea Party:

"...the conservatives have won this argument and they‘ve certainly won it over the last 16, 17 months—in the fact that the tea party gets tremendous—the tea parties get tremendous coverage. And think about it—week before the health care vote, they had a rally in Washington, got 1,000 people, maybe not even that. The tax day rally, the big rally to protest federal taxes got less than 1,500 people showing up, according to their own organizer. Other people thought it was in the 400 or 500 range.

Gosh, if I had a rally in Washington to have stronger laws to protect puppies, we‘d have 100,000 people without blinking. And yet, the media, including the so-called liberal and progressive media, have given the tea party-ites elevation in terms of the impact they‘re having on the national debate and discussion—way above what they deserve."

Earlier in the program, Rachel highlighted some other rallies, involving thousands of people protesting cuts in government services. Rendell added that it would be hard to find any coverage of those, let alone the kind of major coverage the Tea Partiers get.

It's even worse than that. There have been several major demos in Washington which involved many times the numbers the T.P.s get, that were completely ignored.

This Sunday there's going to be a major Earth Day event in Washington. There will be stars like Sting singing, so that part will probably pop up on the cable stations. But will it be taken seriously politically? As a statement about national and international priorities? Especially when there's this report that the climate and energy bill is going to drop off the Democrat's agenda.

On the other hand, if this report is true, and the Senate "bill would remove the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate carbon dioxide under the Clean Air Act, and the states’ authority to set tougher emissions standards than the federal government," then it isn't a bill worth passing.

If this event falls flat, it's partly the fault of enviro groups, who have kept this event a virtual secret, except for the Earth Day committee that is running it. And part of it is the familiarity--nobody is really wondering, what are these people so angry about? But a lot of it is the media refusing to cover anything that is politically to the left of the Tea Party in a politically significant way. We'll see what they do with this event on Sunday.

Not on any NFL draft board, this running back a few years out of Harvard may not look impressive, but has a record of winning. Known mostly as a hoopster with questionable skills in bowling and baseball, he sees the whole field, follows his blocking, and can make quick adjustments that confound opponents. A leader, with even temperament but a fighting spirit, tenacious and focused, he also doesn't get in trouble with off the field bad behavior. A smart team could go far with him, if it understands what it's got.

Not Worried

I'm worried about a lot, like the future of civilization, President Obama going to West Virginia, paying the dentist. But I am not worried about the 2010 elections. Democrats will do fine.

It's not even May. Absent big surprises--and we do get those--this is apt to be the GOPers high point. The U.S. economy is improving, and unless stuff like the volcano in Iceland force the global economy into the tank, it will be better in the fall. Recovery Act funding of visible projects was backloaded--they'll be kicking in by the fall.


The last U.S. combat soldier could well be switching out the lights behind him in Iraq by summer's end. Afghanistan may even be winding down by fall.

The Rabid Right is dangerous in various ways, but not so much in major elections across the country. The Tea Party is hot media air, not enough to sway elections when other voters are paying attention (says E.J. Dionne, among others.) There are already signs that, contra opinion polls, being against health care is not going to be rewarded by voters--especially independents.

And in case anybody has forgotten 2008, we've got a pretty good campaigner now in the White House. Check out this speech for Barbara Boxer and see if President Obama isn't already sounding resonant themes.

The Democrats will likely lose some seats, especially where they have not very good candidates, and there is enough craziness out there to take away some others. But just as the death of the Republican party announced last year by the media bobbleheads proved a little premature, so today's doom and gloom over Democrats is out of proportion. Dems have a lot of work to do just to stay pretty even, but it's doable. And things for them might look a lot better by fall.

No Win Situations

Update: This devastating piece in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

Sportswise, I am not a happy camper, and it doesn't look like I'm going to be one for a long time. The NBA playoffs are beginning, and what was supposed to be a title defense by a dominant Lakers team is starting to look like a slow motion train wreck. Although with all their injuries and fatigue, and the terrible play lately that has given the rest of the league multiple ways to beat them, they may not even get out of the first round. It's that bad. Even if they win against a younger, faster Oklahoma team with a dynamic superstar in the making, it's going to be a struggle and they're likely to look lousy doing it. And even if they struggle all the way through seven game playoff series, they're not likely to beat Cleveland for the championship, if it comes down to that, and it probably will.

But the Lakers prospects are nothing compared to the shocking situation of the Steelers. The last time Steeler Nation rejoiced, it was the touchdown pass from Big Ben to Santonio Holmes that won the Super Bowl. Now the Steelers have practically given away their best receiver because of one off-the-field screwup too many, and their star quarterback is getting a reputation as a star jerk, at best.

Ben's birthday (subject of a post here, I note with some chagrin) was celebrated with some apparently unsavory activity that led to an accusation of rape. Celebrity sports figures are easy targets for false accusations--some Steelers stars have been victimized that way, including (if memory serves) Jerome Betis, and Ben had a pretty good reputation. So I kept quiet until the police investigation was over. Now Ben was not charged, but he's hardly been exonerated of bad behavior. Steeler Nation is not happy with him.

How all this winds up--fall, redemption, whatever--it's going to be messy, and it ain't going to be football. If the Steelers don't trade him (unlikely they will, but possible), he faces suspension in the next few weeks--at first the bet was for a game or two to start the season, but now it may be more. With two stars returning from injury, the Steelers' defense was looking to resume its dominance, and acquisitions and signings suggested that the offense would be somewhat different, but better. Now next season looks like a bust already. The better teams in the division strengthened themselves--in fact, a lot of teams outside Philadelphia strengthened themselves in the off-season. So the Steelers can't afford to lose their star quarterback for four or more games and expect to compete. It looks like another year without a playoff run.

Maybe the Steelers will rise above it all and it will be exciting, and/or the Lakers will return to their dominant form of earlier this season, but neither is likely anymore, and in any case, the road maybe too painful to watch, at least for me and my relatively low tolerance for that kind of drama in something I know I shouldn't be wasting time on. They are all going to be multi-millionaires without me.

The bottom line is that I'm going to have to come up with another way to waste my time. Besides blogging.

The morning after the April 15 Tea Party, a few facts:

Percentage of Americans whose federal taxes are lower this year: 98

Number of years out of the eight years GW Bush was President that taxes for most Americans were higher than now: 8

The Stealth Public Option?

A Kos diarist examining a Kaiser Foundation summary of the health insurance reform law found a provision concerning the health insurance Exchanges that will "Require the Office of Personnel Management to contract with insurers to offer at least two multi-state plans in each Exchange. At least one plan must be offered by a non-profit entity." The "non-profit entity" suggests a kind of stealth public option, though some of the big players--and current abusers--are technically non-profits. However, it probably further ensures that the individual mandate challenge won't be found unconstitutional, if it doesn't require that citizens buy a product from a profit-making company.

Another Kos poster points to several provisions that encourage insurers and the health care system generally to lower costs, and makes health care more affordable.

At the same time, the fact that GOPers smell the possibility of gains in November, plus the one-party vote that passed the bill, is obviously encouraging a continuing opposition by means of lies and extreme rhetoric, and probably emboldens insurance companies to do what they can to subvert the law.

On the other hand, the first congressional electoral test--in which a GOPer tried to inflame and incite Florida seniors on the law, as well as generally insulting the President--didn't work: the Democrat who was supposed to win, did win, with more than 60% of the vote.

The Legal Challenge to Healthcare Reform

There are a number of challenges by politically motivated attorneys-general and governors, playing to larger reactionary forces. None of them have legal merit, let alone real Constitutional challenge. However, the "individual mandate" provision has always been troublesome. If it is the federal government directing every citizen to buy the product sold by a private sector corporation, absent a public option, then it is unprecedented. The closest to it would be state governments requiring automobile insurance, but that is for people who own cars, and citizens are not required to own cars, so they have some choice.

However, this is not how the so-called individual mandate provision was written. As explained by Lawrence O'Donnell, whose expertise is precisely in the area of financial regulations in Congressional legislation, what the mandate basically says is that if you don't buy health insurance, you won't get the tax break that people who do buy the insurance will get. That is clearly within the law and within accepted practice.

Moreover, the IRS will not investigate compliance, but respond to what is on the tax return. I imagine if non-compliance arises in a tax audit, that might be a different story. The IRS has denied the latest Rabid Right scare story, that it is hiring thousands of new agents to monitor compliance.

I still think that an option to buy public plan insurance from the government would more definitively solve this troublesome problem of people feeling they must buy insurance from the same corporate entities who inflate prices, cut coverage whenever possible, and use their money to influence politicians and advertise to drive out competition. But given the compromises in this bill overall, this is an acceptable price at this time for the reforms it includes.

Although I have to admit I say that knowing that it will never apply to me. I look forward to Medicare.

Update: Here's a more detailed explanation of both the insidious Rabid Right lies about this, and the facts.

UConnection

Lesson for the Day: What do you do after you've had the worst first half of the year?

You go get the best second half of the year.

Thanks, UConn and congrats on being NCAA women hoops champs, with your second undefeated season in a row.

April Madness

I spent hours of my weekend watching parts of four Final Four basketball games, so I may as well waste more time noting this fact. Although Butler is a great story, and the Butler v. Duke is the David and Goliath that has the media salivating--if only they had a week to drive it into the ground!--I must admit I enjoy watching the women's games more.

It's partly because their game is a purer style of basketball. But men's college hoops has become a tryout league for the NBA. You have a great freshman season, you're drafted. The same sort of sense of entitlement and egotism you see in the pros is infecting college. The stakes aren't as great for the women yet--the WNBA doesn't pay nearly as much, and fewer college players are likely to have pro careers. So they are playing for the now, and it shows.

The greatest players of any era show you what you've never seen before. LeBron James is doing that now in the NBA. But the Connecticut women are showing it in their NCAA tournament--they've won 74 (or something like that) games in a row, and until Sunday had defeated their opponents by 40 to 50 points. Sunday, the Oklahoma team gave them a real if brief scare at the start of the second half, but UConn took control in pretty short order. They play Stanford for the championship Tuesday, and that's the game I'm most looking forward to watching.

Guess who came to dinner? President Obama's surprise visit to U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Another Major Accomplishment

President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton announced a new U.S.-Russia treaty to reduce each country's nuclear weapons by nearly a third.

According to the President: "Broadly speaking, the new START treaty makes progress in several areas. It cuts -- by about a third -- the nuclear weapons that the United States and Russia will deploy. It significantly reduces missiles and launchers. It puts in place a strong and effective verification regime. And it maintains the flexibility that we need to protect and advance our national security, and to guarantee our unwavering commitment to the security of our allies."

With this agreement, the United States and Russia -- the two largest nuclear powers in the world -- also send a clear signal that we intend to lead. By upholding our own commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, we strengthen our global efforts to stop the spread of these weapons, and to ensure that other nations meet their own responsibilities."

I can't help recalling that President Kennedy made two of his most important speeches--on the nuclear test ban treaty, the very first effort to stop the nuclear arms race--and on Civil Rights, that proposed what eventually became the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts--one day after the other. This immense and important accomplishment days after the health insurance reform law makes for a similarly momentous week for President Obama.

Happy 70th birthday to Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House. Maybe I'm showing my age as well as my politics, but I think she's hot.

One of those Hell Freezes Over moments, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gives President Obama a big hug, congratulating him for the passage of the health insurance reform bill. But props to her: she fought this fight in the early 90s as First Lady, and she came closer than anyone to pulling it off--until now.

UPDATE 3/24: TPM runs this photo with a story about how the Clintons worked behind the scenes to get health insurance reform passed. Interesting.

Also, there's this interesting observation from David Leonhardt at the New York Times:"For all the political and economic uncertainties about health reform, at least one thing seems clear: The bill that President Obama signed on Tuesday is the federal government’s biggest attack on economic inequality since inequality began rising more than three decades ago."

Yes, We Did

The dimensions of the healthcare bill victory--and the dimensions of the defeat for Republicans--is just starting to be felt and evaluated. But this E. J. Dionne column is a good start:

Yes, we did.

Finally, President Obama can use those words. The passage of health-care reform provided the first piece of incontestable evidence that Washington has changed.

Congress is, indeed, capable of carrying through fundamental social reform. No longer will the United States be the outlier among wealthy nations in leaving so many of its citizens without basic health coverage.

In approving the most sweeping piece of social legislation since the mid-1960s, Democrats proved that they can govern, even under challenging circumstances and in the face of significant internal divisions. "

Uglier in Our Time

With the top racial slur hurled at a Civil Rights hero and Representative, an anti-gay slur and many threats of violence, the latest Tea Party rally in Washington set a new low in ugliness, hated and incitement.

Here's one report, here's another. Clearly the health insurance reform vote tomorrow is driving the frenzy, but I've given up believing this sort of thing will die down anytime soon. It's uglier, but probably not the ugliest. What remains most alarming is the feedback system that is feeding this frenzy--the hate radio stars whipping up their listeners, the empowered bigots pushing every limit, and the connivance of GOPers in Congress, who are hitching their sinking wagons to this dark star. The question being whether this all ends in self-destruction before it destroys a lot more.