The Changing of the Dubs

 June has a week to go and already the Warrior team doesn't look like the one that just finished their season a few weeks ago, as I suggested they might not awhile back.  Bob Myers left as GM, several interesting new players were drafted, Draymond opted out of his last contract year and is negotiating a longer term deal. And the Dubs traded Jordan Poole for veteran and likely future Hall of Famer Chris Paul. (The Suns traded Paul to the Wizards, who traded him to the Warriors, so Poole goes to Washington.) Free agency is next.

The writing on the wall for at least one young player was there from Coach Kerr's end of season comments summarized in my last post, that the Warriors this year were not a championship team.  He was more specific in what he meant with his comments on how Miami was an Eastern Conference champion because they played together for the team, and didn't complain about their roles or playing time.  Unless you have that kind of team, he said, you don't win championships.  

But publicly Coach Kerr said he liked the roster the way it was, and in his first press conference as GM, Mike Dunleavy Jr. (promoted from within the organization) said the Warriors were keeping Poole for four years and hopefully longer.  A few days later he traded him--not a great look for credibility but supposedly everyone understands.  

Apparently a lot went on in the locker room this season that didn't get reported, for after the trade reporter Tim Kawakaki noted that no one in the organization expressed regrets at losing Poole, once thought of as the future of the franchise.  The bag of promised money the Warriors save plus the tension between Poole and Draymond now eliminated, both suggest Draymond will get his contract.

Coach Kerr responded to the trade in general terms, saying that after all everybody in the organization knew there had to be a "shift."  Besides a shift in players, the addition of Chris Paul could mean a change in how the Warriors play, or at least how they played this past year.  No one really knows if  they brought in Chris Paul to start or to run the second shift, but it was also reported that Kerr felt the Warriors need a traditional point guard.  Another report said that Steph Curry not only approved of the trade (more or less a necessity) but that he wanted Chris Paul on the team.

There was also talk that the Warriors lacked veteran presence in the locker room, though that's a little harder to swallow.  On the floor maybe, when all the starters weren't there.  Chris Paul is not only 38 but has a history of injuries.  So will they try to do with him what they tried (and failed to do) with Iggy this year, and save him for the playoffs?  

The Warriors still face money difficulties, because they can't stop now--Poole played in every game last year, and Chris Paul won't, so they'll need either bigger minutes from within their present roster, or they'll need another player or two.  The trading may not be over.  Poole was known to complain about playing time (and he really was much better starting), but so apparently was Jonathan Kuminga.  Stories say the Warriors aren't shopping him, but they said that about Poole as well.  

  Even if the Warriors did well with this trade and their draft picks, other teams may well have done better.  As for free agency, there may not be much money to spend but at least their roster is roomy enough now--they also said goodbye to Ryan Rollins and Patrick Baldwin, Jr.  Donte DiVinenzo is widely believed to be leaving for more money, although that now may also change. And it's not even July.  Stay tuned.

Post Mortem

 The Golden State Warriors lost the sixth game and the second round series to the Los Angeles Lakers.  Steph Curry couldn't carry them offensively when J. Poole struggled and Klay Thompson wasn't Game Six Klay this time.  Defensively they once again sent the Lakers to the line too often.  They started slow--shots not falling, maybe low energy--as they often did on the road, came back nearly even a few times but in the end were thoroughly trounced.  It was the game for the Lakers' adjustments and they made the right ones.

Since then the picture emerging is contrary to what we were told during the year.  Coach Kerr said the Dubs had maxed out in the second round, and they were not a championship team.  Apparently he'd seen that for some time.  Stories also emerged, one after another, of dissension, dissatisfaction or at least confusion between the younger members of the team and the core.  The team trust, the strength in numbers we were assured was there, apparently wasn't.  Kerr said that rebuilding the trust and the Warrior culture is an essential off-season task. 

Several coaches of playoff teams that exited in the first and second round have already been fired.  Kerr's job doesn't seem to be in question, but a lot is.  Apparently whether Bob Myers returns as GM is up to him--he's been offered several possible contracts.  Kerr says he wants Draymond back, Draymond says he wants to be back, but those decisions--complicated by new rules regarding how much teams can spend--are yet to be made. Klay Thompson will be negotiating a new contract. The key to all of this may be whether Myers returns.  

Although Kerr says he likes the roster as it is, most outside observes are either clamoring for trades or  resigned to them.  Free agency will very likely take some players, and make others available.  Interesting to me is Steph Curry saying that the Dubs didn't have a change-up to throw at the Lakers.  That change-up might have been James Wisesman.  Although many observers point to the players from last year who weren't on the team this year, we also didn't hear about players who were described as game-changers last year, such as Poole, Wiggins and Payton II.  Wiggins seems to have had one excellent game, just before he got hurt.  Klay had one 30 point game.  Draymond had great games and bad games.  The whole team just wasn't as good this year, obviously not in the regular season but also in the playoffs.  Apart from what's being talked about now, it suggests that in many ways--most of them more psychological than physical, but also the physical toll-- it's very hard to repeat as champions.

The NBA would probably love a Lakers-Celtics finals, but the Lakers might not have enough to conquer Denver this year.  The Celtics should handle Miami but they might not.  One bit of good news as I say goodbye to NBA basketball this season: the San Antonio Spurs won the draft lottery, and the right to draft the young French player who is being called a generational talent, Victor Wembanyama.  It's good news for the NBA and for the kid, because the Spurs are a class organization, and Gregg Popovich is as good a coach as Wembanyama could hope for, particularly since he brought alone a previous French star, Tony Parker, and two previous number one picks, David Robinson and Tim Duncan. 

Doing the Math

The major advantage of winning the first game of a series, apart from setting a tone, is that the team that wins it doesn't have to win two games in a row to win the series.  Since the playoffs are characterized by game to game adjustments, this is significant--especially for the Lakers, who tend to be a team that shows up every other game.

If the Warriors had won the third game, that would have negated that advantage.  However the Lakers have now won the first and third games, so they are on track.  The Warriors on the other hand cannot win the series now without winning at least two games in a row.  They won three in a row against the Kings, but this series is a bigger challenge. 

So winning the fourth game is pretty important for the Warriors.  They may have to count on a alternate game letdown from the Lakers, though, because the Lakers won decisively on Saturday by playing their game--getting Anthony Davis inside, rebounding and especially by getting alot of points on foul shots, which had the added advantage of slowing the game to a standstill and preventing the Warriors from setting the pace.  

The foul shot disparity, very much the Lakers game, was accelerated by--according to Coach Kerr--the Warriors losing their poise.  That's discouraging, and not something you'd expect from a team so experienced in playoff basketball.  Steph Curry and the other Warriors had a bad to lukewarm shooting day as well, which may have added to their frustration.  The Lakers even shot a better percentage of threes.

If the Warriors can get a win in the fourth game, they've got the fifth game at home, and so are well-positioned to win a seven game series. Then it would be the Lakers who would have to win two in a row. If the Warriors don't win the fourth, then it's a much steeper climb.  They would have to win both their home games and still win the sixth in Los Angeles.  

None of us out here really know how hard it is to win an NBA playoff game.  Some years the Warriors seemed to fly through the playoffs (as a couple of Lakers teams did in the past), and it was all pretty joyful and fun.  But look around the playoffs and you don't see any teams like that this year.  Every team is struggling at times.  It looks like this year it will be the last team standing.

The Answer

 In the second game of the second round series with the Lakers, the Golden State Warriors had to solve some defensive problems and look for a more potent offensive strategy to shrink the huge gap in foul shots.  They did all of that and more, leading by 30 as the fourth quarter started, ending up with a 120-100 victory at home.

They were helped by the Lakers defensive strategy: stop Steph Curry and dare the others to beat them.  The others beat them, particularly Klay Thompson with eight 3-pointers in the three quarters he played, finishing with 30 points.  In order to keep two agile young players on Curry at all times, the Lakers apparently decided not to guard a few others at all, and so Draymond Green, for one, had clear lanes to the basket.  More points in the paint led to more foul calls, and the disparity indeed shrank.   At the same time, the Warriors again rained down 21 three pointers.

Curry had a judicious 20 points but lots of assists, as he functioned at a point guard.  The offense responded to a necessary lineup change, as Jaymichael Green started for the ailing Kevon Looney (who played well but sparingly.) He made shots, including 3s, that further opened things up.  Spacing the floor and running a crisp, fast offense allowed for a rebound advantage even with Looney on the bench.

Defensively, Draymond was hounding the Lakers' first game star Anthony Davis (known as A.D.) from the tipoff.  That, and Davis' own propensity to have a strong game followed by a weak one (some Lakers fans claim his initials actually stand for Alternate Days) meant he was not much of a factor on either end.

So now the series moves to Los Angeles.  Both teams should be hyped for this game on Saturday--and it wouldn't surprise me if the TV audience broke records for a playoff game, finals included.  This is the marquee game of the year.

The Lakers would be expected to make adjustments to counter the Warriors adjustments--and this game will demonstrate whether they can do so successfully.  Ordinarily the home team wins the third game, but the Warriors may be just as motivated, and they may have found a pace and a plan to keep winning, though not so handily.  They need to get one of these next two.  I don't think they will lose at home again this series. 

It's A Series

 The Warriors lost their first game of the second round to the Lakers at home.  That in itself is hardly fatal. But they had a game plan and successfully enacted it.  They rained down 21 three pointers.  Kevon Looney outdid himself (again) with 23 rebounds.  And they still lost.  Though they were within a missed 3 pointer of tying the game at the end, they had to mount a furious comeback from 10 or 12 points.  None of this is in itself encouraging.

If there was fatigue from the 7th game it showed up in defense.  They could not stop Anthony Davis.  The defensive effort, particularly from Draymond Green who lambasted himself for his game, should be better in the second game.  The game plan will likely change to find ways to get to the basket more.  That and some defensive adjustment must shrink the extreme difference between the vast number of foul shots taken by the Lakers and the few by the Dubs.  They were easily the difference in the score.

Certain Kings players made mild reference to the Warriors' age, which certain Dubs players blew up into an insult.  Led by Le Bron James, the Lakers seem to be trying to kill the Warriors with kindness, to flatter them to death.  Can the Warriors get a rise out of themselves, or will they be lulled by the crafty King James?

The second game is far from the decider, but winning this game at home is about as must-win as you can get before an elimination game.  It would be a pity to lose this series to the Lakers, who probably wouldn't beat Denver or Phoenix, whereas the Warriors could.  The matchup challenges the Warriors face against the Lakers have proven to be real.  They need to solve them right quick.  On the other hand, they were close enough in the first game that they need marginal rather than wholesale advantages.  They aren't going to stop Davis completely, and if they try, there's Le Bron James.  A more balanced scoring attack, slightly better defense, and cutting the foul shot disparity in half, would probably do it.

50 + D= Round 2

 

It was one for the ages--in more ways than one.

Stephan Curry scored fifty points, more than anyone else in NBA history in the 7th game of a playoff series.  That's not "more than anyone 35 or over."  Anyone. (I expect as he scored his last bucket--after he'd dribbled through the entire Kings team--he might have already known the previous record-holder was Kevin Durant with 48.)  He added 8 rebounds and had just one turnover.  It was not just a great individual performance, it was team leadership.  It meant victory and redemption.

Besides Curry's reported pre-game challenge to the Warriors and then his performance, or as part of it, there was strategy. The playoffs are often about making adjustments from game to game. When Mike Brown went small with his Sacramento Kings lineup in the sixth game and it worked, it was likely he would do it again in the seventh game.  So on Saturday Steve Kerr and the Warriors planned how to counter it, and how to run an offense against it.  The Warriors planned possessions and had plays to get points early. Early in the game Steph Curry began to see the lanes open to him due to the Kings lineup and how they were playing. "There's a reason I took 38 shots."   The Dubs took care of the ball, and with Draymond Green back in the starting lineup, they amped up their defense.  Defense leads to offense, and made shots leads to getting set on defense and forcing the Kings into the half court game.  

Then you sprinkle it all with magic dust in the form of Steph Curry and you have a gritty and finally dominant seventh game victory--the worst road team in the regular season to be in the playoffs, winning the first round with their two best games--virtual masterpieces--on the road.

 Another key was rebounding: Kevon Looney had his third game of the series with 20 or more rebounds: 21.  None of the other Warriors shot particularly well, but several of them got key baskets to keep the Kings on their heels.  Klay Thompson, who had several of those key baskets and played tough defense, said after the sixth game that all the Warriors had to do to win the 7th was to do the opposite of what they did in the 6th.  In fact the scores of the two games were almost mirror images, as the Warriors won 120-100.  The Warriors held fast in the first half, started pulling away in a dominant third quarter, and turned the fourth quarter into a rout, much as the Kings had done in game 6. 

With his flips and floaters added to his repertoire, Steph Curry looks like he's installed a magnet in the basket and he's sticking iron filings on the ball as he dribbles.  The basket swallows everything he sends its way.  It's been clear for a few years now that he's added strength to his game--he can muscle opponents out of his way to the basket, as well as making them dizzy with his dribbling and feints.  Recently he's become more consistent, in the 30 to 40 point range every game.  The lows faded along with the highs.  So maybe nobody was contemplating 50 points, but all that scoring and how he scored not only added up, it demoralized the Kings.  

As for the rest of the team, it begins to look more and more like the problems the Warriors have had this season are due to effort and concentration.  They are hard to maintain in an overlong NBA season, especially on the road.  They kept talking about playoff experience and championship DNA, of flipping the switch, but it was starting to sound like wishful thinking.  Now it doesn't.  The sixth game was a worrisome lapse, but they won four of their last five games, two at home and two on the road.  Look out, Lakers.

Despite losing three of their four regular season games against the Lakers, the Warriors have home court in the second round, because the Lakers are a play-in team.  It's a new series with a very different team.  The Lakers are bigger than the Kings, and Anthony Davis is a handful on both ends.  So can LeBron James be, though there are questions about how healthy he actually is.  The Dubs may change their rotations in response, perhaps giving more minutes to Kaminga and Moody.  First game is Tuesday evening at the Chase Center. 

The Deciding Game

 Sixth games are tricky.  One team is trying to end the series by winning it and getting some rest before the next round begins.  The other team is desperate to win it.

The seventh game is not tricky.  Both teams are desperate to win it.

What a difference the Warriors 6th game loss has made.  Media figures were predicting they would win another championship after their fifth game victory.  But the Warriors have been nothing if not inconsistent this year.  And it's not a good look.  Their championship teams won their deciding games.

Klay, J. Poole and Draymond had pretty bad games.  Sacramento coach Mike Brown came up with his own brilliant adjustment, which happened to be the same one that his former boss Golden State coach Kerr came up with in the third game: go small, but make sure your guards crash the boards.  The Warriors had no answers, nor could they match the Kings' energy.

So now the Kings have several advantages in the 7th game: it's a home game for them, and the older Warriors will be on short rest, only a day and a half from the end of the 6th game.  The Kings came up with a lineup strategy on offense that the Warriors couldn't stop.  On defense, they can chase Steph Curry and limit him to 30 points, and dare the others to beat them.  

After the fifth game, one SF Chronicle writer predicted that the remaining three games would all be won by the visiting team.  He's two-thirds right so far.  Another more recently framed the loss as that the Kings running the Warriors off the floor in game 6 (as they did in game 2)  suggesting a changing of the guard: youth over age (that is, mid 20s over mid 30s.)  Others seem to be agreeing today--the Kings are the team of destiny, sweeping away the old Warriors and then the old Lakers.  If the Warriors lose on Sunday, that will likely be the story line.  (Then we'll see if the Warriors' management buys it.)  If the Warriors win, well, forget they said it.  This really is a deciding game, in more ways than one.

Even if they win, the Warriors have proven themselves vulnerable, and the "changed team" is capable of reverting to the team that barely made the playoffs.  Had they won in 6, they would have been favorites against the Lakers (who did win in 6, decisively, against self-destructive Memphis.)  If the Warriors win in 7, probably not.

In any case, the California second round begins Tuesday, with either the Warriors or the Kings playing the Lakers.   

One to Go

 Before the Warriors got on the bus to Sacramento, coach Kerr insisted to media that they were a different team now.  After the fifth game victory in Sacramento, he said that we'd just witnessed the return of the championship Warriors.  

The Warriors experience was one edge over the Kings youthful athleticism.  Along with the tight, precise game they played, the Warriors had an array of heroes.  Steph Curry (31 points) and Klay Thompson (25) scored at key moments.  Draymond Green added his first 20 point game in the playoffs since 2019 to his defense and passing wizardry (again coming off the bench.)  Gary Payton II provided important minutes on both sides of the ball, and once again Andrew Wiggins was a rock, an anchor on both sides as well.  But the key to the game may well have once again been Kevon Looney, with his career high 22 rebounds, the only player but two in history to tool two 20 plus rebound games in the same playoff series.

Now the Warriors, riding high expectations once again, must put this away with a 6th game at home on Friday.  They found the formula. They know what to do now.  Klay Thompson doesn't have to become "6th Game Klay"--those outlandish performances usually came when the Dubs were behind in the series anyway.  Magic Johnson is on the record predicting certain victory.  But it will still take the intensity that won the past three games.

As the Warriors game ends, the Lakers take on Memphis, also leading the series 3-2.  If they both win, their matchup in the second round is set.  Everything is settled in the East now: Miami plays the Knicks, but the winner of the Boston-Philadelphia series will be the likely favorite to win the East.  

The California (and Others) Playoffs Continue

 Will Sacramento's star and best scorer De'Aaron Fox play tonight against Golden State?  On Monday the news was that he'd broken a bone in a finger on his shooting hand and was listed as doubtful.  Fox on the other hand said he was determined to play.  He said it again after practice on Tuesday, having been able to shoot and dribble.

Players however don't decide if they play, and there's been no word I've seen from his coach or the med staff, if they might be worried that re-injuring it could risk more serious damage (doctors that media members have consulted don't seem to think so.)  But while there's always the possibility that the finger swells up overnight, or the remote possibility that this is a mind game being played, I expect he will play.  It's the playoffs.  

How effective Fox can be in this fifth game is an important question. But it's not everything.  There's no reason under any circumstances for the Warriors to get overconfident.  The coaches will have to prepare for the Kings with and without Fox, and the players will have to execute the game plan.  The Dubs will still have an occasion to rise to.

And a lot of people will be watching.  The Warriors-Kings series has become the audience favorite of the first round.  This is the first Western Conference playoffs in which all four California teams were playing.  One of them (the Clippers) lost their series to the Phoenix Suns, and one more (either the Dubs or the Kings) is destined to be gone by the end of the first round.  The Lakers look like they have the number of the chaotic Grizzlies, a team as presently constituted that shouldn't even be allowed in the league, and so the Lakers are likely to win that series with their next game.  Then no matter what happens in San Francisco or Sacramento, there will be another California-on-California team round, as the winner of the Warriors series will almost certainly face the Lakers.

As a result of Tuesday games, Phoenix and Denver, both media favorites to win the West, will face off in the second round.  In the East, it does not look like one of the three strongest teams, the Bucks, are going to make it out of the first round.  That leaves Philadelphia, who swept their first round, and Boston--even though they're just up 3 games to 2 over Atlanta, it's hard to see them not winning the series.  The Knicks and the Heat also look likely to survive the first round.  

It may not count as much of a perspective on the Warriors series, but it is is worth noting that the first round--usually the easiest for the top teams--has only one sweep, and that one in the East.       

That Championship Something

 Is the team healthy?  Check.  Did it have at least some momentum at the end of the regular season? Check.  Does it have playoff pedigree?  Double check.

Now it only takes heroic team play, individual playmaking in the context of the game, energy, focus, endurance, adjustments, strength of will, and luck.  That championship something.

On Sunday the Warriors had it all--well, almost all.  I mentioned earlier that to win this series might take finding an adjustment against this specific team.  In game 3 they found it with the three guard, one big lineup to start. According to coach Kerr, this creates the space they need to move the ball around without risking so many turnovers. In game 4, Draymond volunteered to come off the bench so they could try it again.  He spelled Looney as the big in the first half.

But further adjustments were needed, especially on defense.  Kerr went back to the two-bigs lineup in the second half, and put Draymond on the King's best shooter.  The Warriors got back to team rebounding.  The result was a dominant third quarter.  The Kings came back strong in the fourth but the Warriors held on, surviving turnovers and a time-out error, winning with lockdown defense.  And with luck, as former Warrior Harrison Barnes missed what would have been the winning shot.

You know who was due for a big game--and had one?  Klay Thompson.  But it wasn't one of his double-digit 3s or 40 plus point barrages.  It was the return of Two-Way Klay.  He scored 26 points, with baskets at crucial moments especially late in the game, but his defense was notably stellar.  

The bench did not contribute much and the fourth quarter was ragged, so this was not yet the complete game that the Warriors are capable of.  They'll probably need that in the fifth game, especially now that the Kings are rediscovering their 3 point scoring, and their sharpshooting rookie Murray finally found his shot.  

Now that these teams have taken each other's measure, I expect the rest of the games to be tight, coming down to a few plays at the end. Fifth games are called pivotal for more than the obvious math of them.  Winning the fifth in a tied series is usually a huge advantage.  But with the Warriors still dominant on their home court, they could still win this in seven.  If they steal the fifth game, maybe even in six.    With that championship something, including luck.

Heroes

 The Golden State Warriors we were waiting for showed up on Thursday night in a wire-to-wire 17 point victory to make this a 2-1 series going into the fourth game on Sunday, again on their home court.

Of the three Dubs designated as "questionable" before the game, only Gary Payton II didn't play.  Nevertheless the defense was good, which Coach Kerr attributed to the two key factors: rebounding and taking care of the ball.  Both prevented Sacramento from a lot of transition opportunities.

As predicted, Sabonis (designated questionable) did play and was roundly booed every time he touched the ball.  The Golden State fans played their part in this victory, but it was consistent play along with heroics that led to the win.  Nobody not named Curry had a good shooting night, but many had key buckets because they kept their heads up.  The main heroes of the game were Steph Curry for his magic play and leadership (his 6 threes from beyond 28 ft. set a long distance NBA playoff record) and especially Kevon Looney for his relentless rebounding (20) including key offensive rebounds, and his perfect 9 assists on 9 passes.  I remember how the Warriors stuck with Looney when he was injured at the beginning of his career.  He's become absolutely essential.

A secondary hero would be Moses Moody who in his first meaningful minutes of the series scored 13 points including some key 3s in the first half, and played inspired defense.  On Friday, several players spoke about Draymond's pep talk to them on Wednesday before the game.  These players gave it weight.  They respect his leadership.  On the court the inspirational leader was Curry, with his play and his communication and his overall affect.

Wiggins was consistent despite his shoulder soreness, but J. Poole had a bad shooting day on that ankle.  Still, he made some good decisions that led to points.  He is unlikely to have a breakout game until the ankle heals.  

While this was a game to be cherished, it won't mean a lot if the Warriors don't show up like this again on Sunday.  They must even the series and instill some doubt in their opponent.  Draymond will be back and likely Payton.  Let's hope the chemistry remains.  And you know who is about due for a big game? Klay Thompson.     

Suspense and Suspension

Wednesday update: Think it couldn't get worse for the Warriors on Thursday?  Three key players--Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II and J. Poole--are all listed as "questionable" for the game.  In the playoffs, "questionable" usually means they're playing hurt (or sick), but anything less than heroic performances by these three and the Dubs don't pull it off.  So it's now an even steeper mountain to climb.

Today's sentiment, reportedly within the Warriors team and organization, as well as among NBA players and media, is that Draymond's suspension is a major mistake by the NBA.  It may not turn out to be Green who loses his job because of this.

Tuesday post:

 Under Coach Kerr, the Golden State Warriors had never been down two games to none in any playoff series.  Under Coach Kerr, the Warriors have never lost a playoff series to a Western Conference opponent.  The first precedent has been broken in the current playoff series against the Sacramento Kings.  And with the suspension of Draymond Green for the next game, the second becomes more likely to be broken as well.

In the fourth quarter, when Sabonis held on to Green's foot, Green tramped down on Sabonis' chest.  Sabonis got a technical foul but Green got a flagrant 2 was ejected, and the Warriors lost. The NBA announced the suspension, with the deciding factor apparently being Green's record of "poor sportsmanship." Later the Kings announced that Sabonis had a chest contusion and was Questionable for the third game. 

The suspension decision is questionable on several grounds, including some nasty ones.  But as Draymond is so fond of saying, it is what it is.  So a couple of things are likely in game three at Golden State, in order of likelihood: first, Sabonis will play; second, the Warriors will win. 

If the Warriors don't win and lose the series, and perhaps even if they do win this game and lose the series, or even if they don't get to the finals, Draymond Green's time at Golden State might be just about up.  It doesn't take a tactical genius to figure out by now that if you provoke him even in the playoffs he will take the bait, and hurt his team.  Everyone remembers that they lost a key game and then the championship in a similar situation.  And at the time they were up 3 games to 1, not in a must-win game.  Draymond Green is a unique and a great player.  But if you add The Punch into the equation, this could be strike three.  

Truly this could be serious.  Because Draymond not only put his own job in jeopardy, but that of Bob Myers (needing a contract to continue) and ultimately Coach Kerr. This season Green seemed to play himself back into the good graces of management, and now this.

Even before the suspension was announced, media coverage turned as downbeat on the Warriors' prospects as it had previously been positive.  On their home court the young King team was unintimidated and proved resilient in crunch time, holding on for close victories in both games.  The Warriors did not get away with less than a complete game, let alone a sloppy second game.  It is the Warriors now that must play a nearly perfect game to win.

And they must continue to play at a higher level just to get out of this series.  As a series goes on, the more experienced team generally has the advantage.  But that might not be the case this time.  The Dubs have to play heroically, and/or their coaches have to find and exploit some weakness in the Kings that hasn't yet been apparent, either with game plans or lineup rotations.  And that's just to even the series at home.

It's not that the Kings have proven to be the better team.  It's just likely that the teams are more evenly matched that supposed.  It could become like the great Lakers-Kings series, which went seven games, and turned on one play in the fifth game.   

First Test

 It made me nervous--how positive the pundits were before the first round series started that Golden State would prevail, perhaps easily.  The Warriors themselves were said to be very confident.

One way to look at the Sacramento King's first game victory is that if they were to win any game it would be this one--their first one since (if I'm not mistaken) Shaq was playing against them.  The entire city seemed to be cheering them on.  Another way is to suggest that they needed to play almost a perfect game, and with a lot of luck (and a lot of calls going their way), to beat the Warriors, almost at full strength.  Wiggins was back but was gassed enough at the end to miss a wide open 3 that might have been the winning shot.  The Warriors did not lose from overconfidence. Maybe from fouling too much.

After the game, the Warriors still seemed confident.  Game 2 is not an absolute must win, but pretty close.  The game after a defeat is where you'd expect championship pedigree and playoff experience to show.   

But the game 1 winner usually has an outsized advantage.  The Kings now know they can in fact beat the defending champs in a playoff game.  What might have been bravado before the game is confidence after it.  Now it's up to the Dubs to prove that they aren't just a little short of playoff caliber this year.

All is Known

 About playoff seeding that is.  In terms of outcomes, Sunday went pretty much as expected--all the teams that needed to win did win, including the Warriors.  And did they.  With the most points in the first quarter in NBA history (55) on the way to a 157-101 pounding of  the JV version of Portland.  Klay Thompson needed five threes to reach 300 for the year, which he accomplished in that first quarter.  He ended with 6, and ended the regular season with the most 3 pointers in the league.  Only two other players (including Steph of course) have ever made 300 in a season.

So now we can catch our breaths for a week, until the Warriors face the Sacramento Kings in a first round series starting April 15.  Pundits of course will be fulminating the entire time, and several of those already on record predict the Warriors to go deep in the playoffs.  Steph Curry expressed his confidence that the Warriors can win the West.  

With a week to work Andrew Wiggins back into the flow, and time for some nagging injuries to heal, the Warriors have what it takes to win it--despite less than stellar play at times, they have momentum, they are (we hope) healthy, and so far they're lucky: because the Clippers were playing at the same time, the Clips had to win their game, even though they would have made the sixth seed if they hadn't.  As it is, the Clippers have to face Kevin Durant in the first round.  Sacramento is widely considered a weaker team, challenged on defense.  The question will be whether they face the playoff Warriors or the regular season Warriors.  This is where experience gets added to the Dubs' advantage.  

Another great plus of the Portland game was game experience for the bench. The Dubs bench played the entire fourth and handily outscored Portland, 39 to 28.  Moses Moody actually wound up the second highest scorer with 25.  Everybody played at least 10 minutes, everyone scored.  Throughout the game Gary Payton II had steals and disrupted the Portland offense.  He's already sharp--another good sign.   

The official NBA cutdown of the game usually includes the home team announcers, as this one did.  So the play by play was pretty surreal, as the home announcers tried to talk about the Portland team on the court but kept getting interrupted by Warrior 3 pointers and JK dunks.  I don't think the cut actually included every Warrior basket.  By the fourth quarter the announcers were ignoring the game entirely and chatting about what they are going to do on their long vacations until next season.   

However, it looked like a sizable part of the crowd stuck around.  As in Sacramento, there were lots of Dub fans.  How else to account for the fact that even though Portland was sitting its starters plus half the bench for the past several games, for this early afternoon game the place was sold out.  

Really Down to the Wire

A lot of the drama went out of the final games as more teams locked into playoff spots, like the Sacramento Kings.  So the Kings sat their stars and the Warriors romped--not a given this season so far but not a big test either.  It seems Mike Brown is saving his strategies for the playoffs, as right now the likeliest scenario is for the Dubs has them facing the Kings in the playoffs first round.

The good news for Golden State is that with a victory in Portland Sunday they will be in the playoffs.  The other teams (principally the Clippers) are playing either much weaker teams or teams with their spot set and resting players for the playoffs, so they are likely to win out.  Which means that if the Dubs win in Portland, they will be the sixth seed, without home court in any series. 

At this point it seems that Portland is doing everything legal to lose, in order to get the top draft pick.  So unless the Dubs self-destruct (which of course they have done more than once this year) they should win.   If the Warriors manage to lose, they will drop out of the playoffs entirely, and into a play-in.  If the Clippers manage to lose, the Warriors (with a victory in Portland) stay in fifth.

So shortly after your chocolate bunnies tumble out of your Easter basket, the season will be over and all will be known. 

Down to the Wire

Update Wednesday night:  The Clippers victory over the Lakers moves them into fifth place, with the Warriors in 6th (the Clippers like nearly everyone else own the tiebreaker.)  New Orleans victory puts them just a game behind the Warriors, along with the Lakers--both of them with the tiebreakers.  Now the Warriors are masters of their fate in the sense that by winning their final two games they'll be in the playoffs.  According to sportswriters there are scenarios in which the Dubs could lock this up with a victory in Sacramento and other key team losses.  

Whichever way, the victory at Sacramento is necessary, barring some crazy combination of certain other teams' losses in the final two games.  However, Sacramento is still playing for second seed, so tomorrow will be hard-fought.  

An additional source of difficulty for the Dubs may well be the King's new coach Mike Brown, who just last year was assistant coach for the Warriors.  He knows their sets, both offense and defense.  He knows how Kerr coaches.  Of course, some of this knowledge goes both ways, but it adds another dimension to this game.

Coach Kerr confirmed that Andrew Wiggins will not play in Sacramento (or in Portland.)  Klay Thompson's status is unknown and probably will be until game time. 

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By coming back to defeat Oklahoma City, the shorthanded Warriors moved into fifth place, though that won't last through the night.  Unless there's a last minute injury or strain from their overtime win, I fully expect the Lakers to defeat the Clippers tonight, which (because of tiebreakers) would vault them into fifth place in the Western Conference, and send the Warriors down to sixth.  If the Clippers win, they go to fifth place.  This will make the Warriors visit to Sacramento the most consequential game of the regular season.  It seems unlikely they could avoid the play-in if they lose.  It will be a tough game, another big test.

Surprisingly, media sentiment today seems to be that the Warriors are poised for a serious run in the playoffs.  If they get to the finals, they would be the first team to do so that didn't have home court in a single previous playoff series.  

Coach Kerr is sounding confident, but then he has to, if they have any chance.  However, another story suggests the core players are concerned about the bench and their inconsistency.  They haven't cohered. I hope somebody remembers how well they played when Klay Thompson asserted leadership in the absence of Steph and Dray.   

End of the Road

Sooner or later, the road will end: the road of this once promising season for the Golden State Warriors, and the road of this championship-level team.  Sad to say, current signs point to it being sooner rather than later. 

There are still three games to go, and a playoff season ahead, but despite the imminent return of Andrew Wiggins, there may not be too many more games for this team as currently constituted.  Beyond this season, contracts and the new league agreement portend storm clouds ahead, especially if this season ends as badly as it looks like it could.

The Warriors have been saying for weeks that they understand the situation, that they know how to accelerate into playoff mode.  But they've made it hard to believe.  The Denver game may have been the final straw.  The Warriors once again got away with playing well for little more than a quarter to defeat San Antonio, but in Denver they faced a team without its dominant star, and lost.  Moreover they blew a 15 point lead in doing so.  This time there were blunt words.  Coach Kerr said they essentially stopped playing for most of the second half.  Steph Curry said bluntly that they could not expect to win a championship doing what they did in Denver.  

They may not even get the chance.  Though the bottom of the conference is still essentially tied, the Warriors could win out--which by this time seems unlikely--and still find themselves in the play-in.  That's partly because the Warriors have lost tiebreakers to just about everybody.  They have to win and pray others lose.  I don't think the Lakers will lose.  Right now they have the momentum to take the 6th seed or higher.

The problems multiply themselves.  Knowing how essential these games are, the Warriors are still not playing high quality basketball for an entire game.  They can't survive the playoffs that way.  The idea that they can just turn it on in the playoffs by this time may be a cruel fantasy.  Their confidence has to be waning while the confidence of their opponents grows.  Do they really believe they can do it?  For those of us outside, there's a lot of room for doubt, and the Denver game added to it.

Those with tickets to the last home game or can afford to buy a seat, as well as attendees at any later game in the play-in or the play-off, should savor the moment to celebrate this team.  Financially as well as whatever else is going on, it seems unlikely these players will assemble together again next year.  I hope I'm wrong.

This year began with high hopes, not only for the season but for the future.  The Warriors seemed to have a championship present with the pieces of a championship future.  Now it all may fall to pieces.

I hope they're still playing in June, and that the road ends with another banner, and impetus to retain this team next year.  But even in this flawed conference, I'm afraid that how they've played all year, lurching from crisis to crisis, with great individual achievements but only flashes of cohesiveness, is catching up with them in early April.

The Stretch

 The Golden State Warriors play five more games in the regular season, and the playoffs are still in doubt. In their first two home games of the current three game stand, they lost a very important game to Minnesota, and won a crucial game against New Orleans, both games affecting the standings in this preposterously tight Western Conference, from the four seed on down.  

In this stretch run, the Warriors will likely need to win most of the remaining games to make the playoffs outright.  How many they can lose and still avoid a play-in game is unknowable.  Which makes everything unknowable with this enigmatic team.  Normally you could pre-pencil in a W against San Antonio, with the second worst record in the conference, in Friday's home game.  But these Warriors have made too much of a habit of losing focus with lesser teams, and they are coming off two home games in which they played two, maybe 3 good quarters (which includes the amazing second half against New Orleans when they came from 17 back to win by double digits.)  

They then travel to Denver, which normally would be a tough game, except Denver may not play its stars with nothing at stake--except the chance to keep Golden State out of the playoffs, a major motivation.  So, yes, probably a tough game--about the toughest left.

Then immediately back home to play Oklahoma City, which is currently 2 games out of the playoffs--and could be closer by then.  Then back on the road to Sacramento, currently the 3 seed within striking distance of second seed.  Depending on how things go for them in the intervening games, they may have something to play for.  Then their final game at Portland, which may or may not mean something by then.  At this moment, with five games to go, it seems unlikely Portland will be playing for better position, and the seeding may be settled by then--though I wouldn't bet on it.

Though the Warriors don't play either of the LA teams again, what the Clippers and the Lakers do in the next five games may also play a big role in how the Dubs' season ends.  The Lakers seem ascendant, but the Clippers are almost as much of a puzzle as the Warriors.

Especially with individual brilliance, the Warriors have provided thrills as well as chills this year but stability has not been one of their virtues. Maybe we'll never know what happened this season--mental fatigue, distraction, internal tensions, complacency, whatever.  All I know is that coach Steve Kerr looks like he's aged 10 years since October. We keep hearing about the championship Warriors turning the corner, but even with that great half against New Orleans, I'm not convinced they have.  And they are running out of street. 

Looking Better

 Despite impressive home wins against Milwaukee and Phoenix, things looked really glum when the Golden State Warriors began their recent road trip by managing to lose to the Clippers despite Steph Curry's 50 points.  Curry scored another 31 in their next game, a loss in Atlanta, and Coach Steve Kerr praised their effort, and said he was basically happy with the way the Warriors were playing.  After their next game, a loss in Memphis, he said they'd played hard and well again, despite the loss.  Something good is coming for this team, he said, and soon. 

 They had two more road games.  They beat Houston, among the least consistent teams in the league, and Curry scored 30, but Kerr said ironically he liked their effort better in the games they lost.  Then they went to Dallas when both teams were jockeying for the sixth seed and the chance to play in the playoffs.  They won there, more decisively than the final score indicated.  Then they came home, faced one of the hottest team in the NBA with this year's likely MVP who scored 46 points--but with a fourth quarter barrage and their defensive effort throughout the game perhaps finally wearing out Joel Embid, they won.  

Good things came.  Keep them coming.

At this point the Warriors have a game and a half security in 6th place, and are only a half game out of fourth.  Dallas has faded but the Lakers are coming on, and those Warriors losses in LA could still loom large. But it is definitely looking better for the Warriors getting into the playoffs, and it's starting to look like they are getting ready.  

Next they have three games at home against Minnesota, New Orleans and San Antonio, which should be three wins, unless they lose concentration against weaker opponents as they've been prone to do.  Their last home opponent is OKC, a team that is still battling for playoff position.  They have three road games, none of them really easy, against Denver, Sacramento and Portland.  Assuming they can keep their 6th seed or improve it, they'll be tuning up against playoff teams Denver and Sacramento.

With Gary Payton II coming back soon, the combination of Poole and Vincenzo may help to make up for the missing Andrew Wiggins.  The sports commentators this past week have been agreeing with each other that the Warriors can't get far in the playoffs without Wiggins, since he was their second best player in last year's.  They aren't considering however that Klay Thompson, usually their second best player, has worked his way back this year.  While the team with the healthiest stars certainly has the advantage, most teams right now have at least one star ailing.  

The Warrior veterans know the score: that in the West this year, it's anybody's championship. They are probably eyeing the Grizzlies as their most difficult foe, but might have to figure how to beat Anthony Davis and the Lakers.  Then there are at least three very strong teams in the East, any of which might emerge.  But that's months away.  Right now every game means something. 

Not Looking Good

 After winning five straight at home, the Golden State Warriors lost three straight on the road, the last two by double digits.  The desperation to win on the road led Coach Kerr to try out a four guard lineup, which failed to generate enough offense to offset its defensive deficiencies.  Part of the reason he did this was perhaps that Jonathan Kuminga was suddenly unavailable due to a warmup injury.    

Now the Dubs come back home to face the Milwaukee Bucks, who bring the best winning percentage in the NBA and are hungry for another championship.  The Warriors will be without Kuminga and Anthony Lamb (because his allowed number of games is up until they sign him to the roster) as well as Andrew Wiggns and Gary Payton II.  Without JK and Lamb and with an overworked and hobbling Looney, the Warriors are nearly defenseless at the rim--except for Draymond, who might be taken away from other responsibilities.  This game will require major heroics.

Including this game, the Warriors have only seven games left at home. The next is with Phoenix (though Kevin Durant is injured.)  The next four are after a five game road trip, and the last one is against Oklahoma between a road game in Denver and road games at Sacramento and Portland.  This is not an easy schedule even in better times.

No one can predict where the Warriors will end up, given the big uncertainties of West teams.  As usual this time of year, every team's fate hinges on injuries (though teams have been winning without key players somehow) and momentum (some of which the Clippers have regained.)  But it's not looking good for Golden State.  It seems the best they can hope for is a low seed which eliminates home court throughout the playoffs.  This is not good news for one of the NBA's worst road teams.

This year is looking like it's fated.  Klay Thompson and Steph Curry are having career years, as is Draymond, and Jonathan Kuminga is emerging in a big way, there's no obvious bad player, and still the Warriors are not only losing but being humiliated.  Management decisions backfiring as they haven't before, injuries at crucial times, a starter's extended and indefinite absence, and who knows what else is going on with this team.  There have been too many resets, too many declarations that they know what's wrong and it's time to fix it, followed by too many badly played games with the same absence of fundamentals.  Is it really just a matter of concentration and effort?  A team that proves it is capable of superior defense and smart offense at home, looks incapable of consistency of either on the road--something weird about that, at least to someone who isn't playing the game.   But once again it's not over yet and there may be thrills ahead.