Happy Time?

 After a very successful road trip, the Golden State Warriors won their first two games after the All Star break--back to back at home.  Coach Steve Kerr reportedly signed a lucrative contract for the next two years, making him by some measures the highest paid coach in the NBA.  In a postgame interview he seemed almost giddy at the prospects for the rest of this season, especially because of all the young players who are suddenly blossoming.  He even called this a "fun" season, which doesn't exactly match the angst and the won-loss record.  Everyone's excited that Chris Paul will be back. So is it happy time?

Maybe--this next road trip will go a long way to figuring if the Dubs can get that sixth seed to go directly into the playoffs. The Lakers do appear vulnerable.  The Dubs have two games with Dallas and can make up a lot of ground there.  Sacramento is probably the stumbling block but the Warriors' schedule is generally favorable.  The biggest problem may be fatigue.  But this time of year the big factors are health and momentum.  By tipoff in Washington, the Warriors will be fully healthy.  They had momentum and now they must really turn it on,

Once in the playoffs, can they do damage?  Sure.  Can they win it all?  Well, there was the last home game against the Denver Nuggets.  Denver dominated, and swept their four game series--the first time any team has won all four matchups in the Kerr era.  What was clear from that game is that the Warriors have no answer for Denver's team as it currently is.  Denver is too tall, too big, too physical and too skilled.  All of that mirrors the advantages of Nicola Jokic, probably this year's MVP.  If Denver stays healthy, it may well be that nobody can stop them from repeating.  But specifically the Dubs don't seem to be currently built to do so.  Depending on how this season plays out, and mostly whether Denver repeats, that may be a concern during the off-season, when management considers the roster.  

Right now, though, Kerr is right--the current roster is fun to watch, and it is capable of beating most teams.  They won without Chris Paul and depending on how he comes back from injury, they can win even more with him.  So happy time?  Could be. 

At The Break

 At the All-Star game break, the Golden State Warriors have a winning record--barely.  They have won one game more than they've lost.  Considering they were five games underwater not so long ago, that ranks as hopeful.

But they've still got problems.  A major one resurfaced in their last two games: blowing fourth quarter leads.  They were up 14 points over the Clippers as the fourth started, and lost by 5.  They blew another double digit lead at Utah the next night, and came very close to losing that one.  

Figure in fatigue approaching the break, as well as a back-to-back, but still, it's worrisome.  On the bright side, they had a great road trip, becoming only the second Dubs team in history to win 3 road games in a row by 20 points or more.  Their schedule also gets easier in the second half of the season.  So they are well positioned to get into the playoffs, and nobody will want to face them in a 7 game series.  That's partly because the problems caused by a crowded roster is becoming a strength: their depth.  Their bench is still at times outplaying their starters, even as the starting lineup has changed.  It changed again in Utah, for awhile at least, as Klay Thompson didn't start.  He did however come off the bench for significant minutes, and a game high 35 points.  

Realistically, the Dubs can hope to play their way past play-in slots to the playoffs, but it's a difficult climb beyond fourth or fifth place.  Three teams--Denver, Minnesota and the Clippers--have been alternating at the top spot so far this season.  The Warriors will have their work cut out for them to just move up past the Lakers.  Who happen to be their first opponent when the regular season resumes.

In my previous post I failed to give Draymond Green his credit due for the Dubs resurgence.  He's become the key to the starting group, that is, the lineup that most often plays with Steph.  He's working well with the new starters, J.K. and now Podz.  Klay enjoyed being featured with the second unit, an unforeseen development.  The return of Chris Paul adds another element, when it happens.  

It's always a worry when momentum is stopped by the break, which has happened to the Dubs before.  This year they really can't afford it.  It may just be one game, that first game back, but beating the Lakers at home could mean a lot.  That road trip meant the boos at Chase Center are history.  This could be the start of something big.

Super Bowl Preview and Warriors Are Winning Finally

 The run-up to the Super Bowl pits predictions against each other.  Last time I looked, San Francisco was still the odds-on favorite with bettors, but over the last week it seems that sports commentators are heavily favoring Kansas City.  A large majority of sportswriters polled by ESPN are picking the Chiefs, ending with the Athletic predicting the Niners defeat, because of a suspect defense.

The zeitgeist has also been favoring the Chiefs, with the midwestern Kansas City touted as the American team, vs. those weirdos and lefties from San Francisco in the Republic of California.  Throw in the Taylor Swift quotient (expect thousands of new viewers to tune in just to see if she makes it from Japan to Las Vegas in time for the game) and Kansas City seems the media darling.

I will guess that the Niners looking at all this, especially after being consigned to a soggy practice field and been awakened by a false fire alarm, are feeling like unappreciated underdogs, despite the betting lines.  I will guess they have something to prove, and they may even be a little angry.  On the defensive and offensive lines especially, anger helps.  Motivation may not always win games, but it might win this one.

Meanwhile...at last!  With their new starting lineup and rotation, the still undermanned Golden State Warriors are winning.  They won 4 of 5 games on their road trip, including two by around 20 points, and the one they lost was in overtime, the second of a back-to-back in Atlanta. Then they came home to another one point game, but this time--at last!--they won it, on a final shot by Steph Curry.  They beat a western conference rival, the Phoenix Suns--something else they hadn't done recently.  With this victory the Dubs finally clawed their way back to an even record.

And indeed, they survived the trade deadline intact, losing only one bench player (Cory Joseph), who might end up back on the team anyway before the season is over.  Andrew Wiggins has--finally!--come around to playing closer to his potential.  But the big story of this period is Jonathan Kuminga, who at the start of the trade talk was supposedly on the block, and by the end was "untouchable."  His blossoming makes him clearly a major part of the Warriors' future.  Among the other pieces that are working, there is the basic dynamic of Curry dominating outside and Kuminga now punishing opponents at the rim. 

 Both Lester Quinones and Gui Santos got playing time and excelled, while Brandin Podziemski did well according to what was needed, playing significant minutes with the starters.  They all provided energy that the team fed on.  Moreover, the Warriors won a couple of those games without an ailing Klay Thompson, and all of them on the road without the injured Gary Payton II. Payton's return Saturday was electric--now the Dubs are mixing in alley-oops with Payton and JK as well as Trayce-Jackson Davis. Chris Paul may soon return, while other bench players cycle through minor injuries.  Suddenly other teams aren't going to want to see the Warriors in the playoffs, though the Dubs are going to have to keep winning to get there.   

Which Is It? The Warriors and the Trade Deadline

 There's been a fascinating tug of war going on in the media during the past week regarding the Warriors and the upcoming NBA trade deadline.  On the one hand, there are reports of the Warriors likely to stand pat, which to me are strongly reinforced by Coach Kerr's recent comments that the Warriors have the team they want, and there's not much that will improve it currently available anyway.  Then there are apparently well-sourced reports that the Warriors are listening to trade offers for nearly everybody.  (Of course they'll listen, but will they jump?) We'll know in a week who got it right.

Meanwhile with their new lineup, the Warriors are starting to look like a dynamic team again.  In their 20 point road victory over Memphis, even the bench players who haven't been playing made strong contributions.  (Then again, sportswriters will suggest they were being showcased for trade to other teams.)  The emergence of Jonathan Kuminga itself seems to have changed everything.  Is this the change that Steph Curry was talking about?  Change from within?  The Athletic's story about this had the snappy title "Urgent Evolution."  

The Warriors have several more road games before the deadline.  If they continue playing this well, will management want to mess with a suddenly successful chemistry?   Even risk yet another period of adjustment in order to figure out what to do with even a big star?  It's hard not to see a major trade as a kissoff to this season, and depending on who is traded, yet another trauma.

Heartbreak and Hope

 After sustaining yet another humiliating loss against a team of subs, the Golden State Warriors suddenly experienced true heartbreak with the death of beloved assistant coach Dejan Milojevic during a team dinner.  After two games were postponed for mourning, the Warriors responded with a double digit win over the Atlanta Hawks.  However, the next two games were authentic heartbreakers: a one point loss to Sacramento, followed by a one point loss to the Lakers in double overtime.  

The potential silver lining in these last two losses was finding a starting lineup for the future, with guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, forwards Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga, anchored by Draymond Green at center.  The Lakers game in particular was heartening for effort and efficiency.  Coach Kerr and the players are positive, at least in public.

If it turns out to be a turning point, is it too late for this season?  It seems pretty clear that the Warriors, slipping further below .500, are no longer among the half-dozen or perhaps even the dozen best teams.  Even Steph Curry was snubbed for the starting lineup at the All-Star Game.  Several young superstars on other teams are coming into dominance, leading their teams to high hopes. 

Meanwhile the trade deadline approaches though the sports gossip has changed.  It's become clear that Kuminga is emerging as a star, so he is no longer in trade chatter.  Nor suddenly is Andrew Wiggins.  Only Chris Paul (not playing due to injury) and perhaps Klay Thompson are talked about, apart from the younger players.  But whether the Warriors front office can make a move depends on other teams, and available players wanting to come to Golden State.  It's starting to look like the Dubs may be in the same position as the SF Giants--stars don't believe they are contenders.  Anyway, I seriously doubt that Klay Thompson is worth more to any other team than he is to the Warriors.

As for the San Francisco 49ers, the spectre of heartbreak became the hope for a Super Bowl championship with their second half in the conference final, coming back from 17 points to defeat the Detroit Lions.  As they did the previous week (though they held on to win), Detroit played a  dominant first half and all but disappeared in the second.  Some bad coaching decisions and some bad luck also figured in.  The Niners rose up to do the rest.

In a further twist, the highly favored Baltimore Ravens were smothered by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game.  The Chiefs haven't looked that great all this season, in particular settling for field goals when in previous years they got touchdowns.  But they are an experienced playoff team that can outlast any opponent.  Whatever anybody expects from the Super Bowl, it's most likely to surprise.

Change

Speculation on who the Warriors could or should trade, and trade for, are nearly constant, especially online.  It's part of the clickbait noise, the sports shows whipping up business.  But the chances that the Warriors might actually be seeking a major trade jumped dramatically in just the past week.  The reasons are several and related.

After wobbling through the season nearly even, winning and mostly losing close games, adapting to injuries and suspensions, the Warriors collapsed in shocking fashion to end the homestand that was supposed to save their season.  They lost two home games in a row by big margins to inferior opponents, and lost them early.  I doubt this has ever happened before when Steph Curry was on the court. 

More to the point, the Warriors were so apparently listless, ineffective and demoralized that they got booed by members of the home crowd.  That's been reported, though I have no idea how widespread it was.  Also people in the stands noticeably left early.  The next step is that they don't show up at all.  Ownership notices something like that.

Another big element is a particular remark by Steph Curry, quoting the definition of insanity that President Obama often used, to the effect that doing the same thing and expecting a different result is crazy.  That's not exactly the franchise player saying his teammates ought to be traded away.  But an executive on the edge could interpret it as something like that--at the very least, permission.

So the rumors last week that the Warriors were resisting trading Jonathan Kuminga, probably their best trading asset besides Curry, have transformed this week into rumors that everybody is on the table except Curry.  Grain of salt of course.

The reality is that the trading deadline is less than a month away, and deals may or may not get done. How desperate should the general manager be?  The recent woes on defense could possibly be overcome by Draymond's return, eventually.  But how patient can management be in the Internet age? If other teams sense desperation, the Warriors could induce trauma without getting much back.

And at this point, trauma is a likely result to the breaking up of a dynastic team, which means trading away Klay and/or Draymond.  Fans like quick fixes, but there are none.  The current team, with maybe some tweaking, may snap out of it to make a playoff run.  A new team probably means this season is lost, and there will be empty seats.  

If the core, if the heart and soul of this team is broken, it seems to me less likely that Steve Kerr will be bothering about a new contract.  He's likely to stay the year, if he's not fired as part of a major sweep, but less likely to return next year.  

 The pressure to change at all costs could get even more intense, if for example the Warriors get blown out again by a lesser team in Chicago.  These young hungry teams now know just how to do it--take it to them from the start with energy and aggression and daring.  The Internet age is especially prone to hysteria.  This may be a test of character for Warrior front office leadership as much as for players and coaches.  The hounds are baying for them to do something.  To make changes.

   In football: right now major storms and very low temperatures are forecast to hit the Midwest and the Northeast this weekend, just in time for the NFL wildcard games. Three of the games, in Buffalo, Detroit and Kansas City, are within the zone of dangerous weather.  So far, thanks apparently to the greed of the NFL and the host cities and their teams, no games have been postponed or moved. If that continues in the face of more specific forecasts, no good will come of this, for players or fans or others.  It's tragedy waiting to happen.  Let's get priorities in order.

The Team That Doesn't Know Who They Are

As hopeful as things seemed not long ago, the Golden State Warriors prospects now seem just as dire.  Some fans and fan sites are in panic mode, calling for blood or at least a major trade.  Young Jonathan Kuminga seemed like he was goaded into some unfortunate comments criticizing Coach Kerr, then changed his tune a day later in public.  Meanwhile the roster changes again as Chris Paul has a serious injury and will be out for an undetermined time--but probably a long time (4-6 weeks or maybe much longer), while Draymond Green is set to return to the team and begin playing possibly in a week.

The catalyst for all this angst was a three game losing streak at home, the climax being a last milisecond loss to Denver, after being ahead by 18 points with less than a quarter to go.  It was yet another emotionally devastating loss, the kind that has everyone losing its sense of the team, if not demonstrably freaking out. Among the scenarios in this game--in which the Warriors played very well for three quarters--was Coach Kerr's decision not to re-insert Kuminga in the 4th quarter lineup, the cause of Kuminga's outburst.  Kerr has yet to say this was a coaching mistake (as he did when he failed to keep a hot Moses Moody in for crunch time, and watched the team lose that one as well.)  But Steph Curry came right out and said it had been a mistake.

 Yet the Warriors had to play the next night after the Denver loss, and barely beat the team currently holding the record for consecutive losses.  But drained and tired, they did win, and that meant something.  

Steph Curry's analysis after the Denver game was the most trenchant.  When asked what had gone wrong to lead to so many disappointing losses, he said there were different factors in each game but added that it's not a good position to be in when you have to explain your losses--"but that's who we are right now."

He said that right now the Warriors don't know who they are, but the Denver Nuggets do.  They know what they will do to finish games, but Golden State--with its fluctuating lineups--doesn't.  "We haven't established an identity," he concluded, "but there's still belief that we can."

The Warriors have lost a bunch of close games, and won a few.  They can be competitive, but according to Curry what is missing is this sense of identity, of knowing who they are.  They now face the adjustment to Draymond's return, not knowing how he will be different because of his suspension.  A lot of people are expecting a big trade, but that won't help the immediate identity problem, just postpone it.  As other teams loaded with high-priced stars have already discovered, that's no guarantee to establishing a team, an identity, or a winning culture.  

Their short-term hope is that Draymond can step back in and fill the gap that Chris Paul left, though Paul's presence in the locker room will still be important, especially to the younger players he's brought along.  Curry is not expressing panic--he's seen turmoil before over the years, though fans and commentators tend to forget the controversies of the past and how important they seemed at the time. The Warriors' adventure continues.

There is of course another San Francisco team that knows who they are, and if they can escape key injuries Sunday (as the Ravens did), the 49ers will soon embark on their postseason journey to the Super Bowl, where a rematch with the Ravens seems likely if not inevitable.  

Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers await Sunday outcomes that will tell them if they're going into the playoffs, though without T.J. Watt their slim chances to advance very far seem further dimmed.  It would be fascinating however to see if the offensive transformation under 3rd string quarterback Mason Rudolph is to continue, or the keys given back to Kenny Pickett.  In the unlikely event they make the playoffs [update: they did], my guess is Tomlin will stay with Rudolph, but if they don't make the playoffs, next season is anybody's guess. A new offensive coordinator will have a lot to say.  In any case the Steelers have a winning season, the 17th straight non-losing season for Coach Tomlin, and the 20th straight for the Steelers overall.  A generation of winning football--something to savor.  

A New Season

Suddenly, a new team and a new season.  Kuminga and Podziemski are starting, Trayce Jackson Davis is getting meaningful minutes and looking like the big man the Warriors need.  Saric and Moody continue to make their minutes count, and Chris Paul is thriving by helping them all thrive.  With stalwart games by Klay Thompson and now Andrew Wiggins helping Steph Curry on the scoreboard as well as playing better defense, the Warriors won five in a row and held the Nuggets even for most of the game in Denver, despite playing their third game in four nights, off-nights shooting for Steph and Klay, and a huge disparity in foul calls, plus Denver's dependable sixth man: the altitude.  The result is a 15-15 record, and in a sense, the season starts here.

The Warriors went on their winning streak without Draymond, without the injured Gary Payton II, and until the Denver game, without much from Wiggins.  The streak included a win against Boston, a top tier team in the standings.  The offense is finally thriving, and though spotty at times the defense can be thrilling, with blocks from Jackson-Davis and steals from JK.  

Coach Kerr has the opportunity to mix and match his lineup choices within games, provided the players (including the vets) totally buy in to fewer minutes and more precise roles.  The win streak that included the young players should free him to make decisions based on basketball situations, because no one can argue with winning.    

With the next seven games at home, and with Payton and perhaps Draymond becoming available in that stretch, the Warriors have an opportunity to revive their prospects.  They've already reinvigorated their season.  

In the Balance

 Draymond Green's indefinite suspension adds a new level of uncertainty to the Golden State Warriors season and likely the future of this particular team.  The chaos in the system has increased, which is not often a good thing.  

Yes, opposing players who know Green's weak points do bait him (and feign sorrow and empathy afterwards) and yes, officials are hard on him and make questionable calls.  But his behavior is his behavior, and he and the Warriors own it.

As for the team in general, General Manager Dunleavy said that the next 20 games will tell the tale as to whether big (that is, personnel) changes must be made.  Right now on the court, the only thing consistent about the Warriors is losing.  They lose in a different way each game.  At Phoenix, Klay Thompson had a bad game and Steph Curry a bad shooting second half, and they lost by the points Dray gave away on his fatal fouls.  Against the Clippers, Klay was on fire for 30 points but Wiggins had a bad night and Steph had his second bad shooting game in a row. Various bench players look extremely good one game and fade the next.  The Dubs have given away games with turnovers and fouls (the most recent OKC game) and lost games in which they had few turnovers and fouls.  They seldom lose by much (two recent games by 1 point; others by 2 or 3.)  But they do find a way to lose.

Everything is up for grabs now, for even a wild card or play-in looks remote at this point.  The hope that 2021-22 can be replicated--serial chaos during the season, but finishing strong--looks like a remote possibility.  If changes are made, they may be for the future, not this year.  In any case, the Warriors are up against it.  The pressure is on to start winning, which may make winning harder.  The rest of the league is happy to beat up on the Warriors, and nobody pities them.  They've been dominant for too long.  But starting to win is the only remedy for what ails them.  The season and the future are in the balance.

A Delicate Balance

It works until it doesn't.  Last year's starting five for the Warriors was statistically the best in the NBA.  This year so far, the same starting five is near the bottom.

I saw this happen to the San Francisco Giants, I believe it was 2016, but in a more compressed and comprehensive fashion: for the first half of the season they had the best record in MLB; the second half, the worst.  That was the beginning of the team's decline and turnover and continued decline, with one last hurrah in 2021 that fell short.  

It could be as soon as the OKC game today that there's at least one change in the Warriors' starting five.  Maybe it will make a difference.  Coach Kerr has 10 very good players but no combination of them so far has looked like a team to be feared.  The Portland game was decided by a player not in the rotation, Jonathan Kuminga.  He was not only effective, he brought excitement.  The home crowd had somebody other than Steph to go wild over.    

With two-thirds of the NBA season to go, it's an awkward moment to be looking for a new balance, but better to experiment sooner than later.  It may be as simple as cutting back some of the veterans' minutes, especially in the first half of the season.  And of course, maybe not.

Speaking of a team to be feared: the San Francisco 49ers are about at that level now, though they haven't won anything yet.  But they crushed the bully boys of Philly and that counts for a lot.  Teams may talk about a challenge but nobody wants to play the Niners right now.  Still, every week is a test: beat the better teams, don't let down or let up on lesser teams.  

That mistake was made by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the thrashing they got from Jacksonville, a team with a losing record, may have carried over to their loss to another lowly team, Boston.  When Brady was there, the Patriots too often broke the hearts of Steelers nation, and this brings it all back, dropping the Steelers out of a Wild Card spot.  With an injured starting quarterback and remaining games against tough opponents on the road, the Steelers even face the possibility of their first losing season under Coach Tomlin.

Getting Tougher

Sure it's early still, and there were some good signs in the Warriors last game against OKC but also some very troubling ones, and so in the midst of a six game losing streak, much of it at home, one thing seems obvious: nobody is afraid of the Warriors anymore.  Down by nearly 20 points, the young Thunder team came thundering back.  They weren't intimidated.  The Warriors no longer inspire fear in their opponents.

For as much as the Warriors want to forget last season, the rest of the league hasn't.  They saw that the Warriors were vulnerable, that they didn't routinely get big leads and hold them, or rally late to inevitably win.  And they are seeing this again.  Do they even respect the Warriors anymore?  They respect Steph Curry and what he can do.  But the Warriors as a team?  I wonder.  If the Warriors are still a championship team, they are making it tougher on themselves to prove it.  They're going to have to earn that respect and intimidation factor all over again.  

But there's better news in the Bay: the Niners won convincingly again.  The defense pressured and was opportunistic, and Brock Purdy had a perfect quarterback rating (whatever that means), the first in Niner history.  I guess it means he was pretty good, and there was lots of MVP buzz in the sportshysteria media.

I contrast this with the situation in Pittsburgh, where my other team lives.  They, too, have a young quarterback who showed a lot of promise before being injured late last season.  But the Steelers offense is lifeless (even considering Cleveland's vaunted defense), and Steelers fans are screaming for his head, and particularly for the offensive coordinator, the most hated man in the burgh.  Heavy sigh. 

Update: Matt Canada was fired as the Steelers' offensive coordinator, the first coaching change during a season that the Steelers have made since 1941.  At almost the same time, a poll of NFL players conducted by the NYTimes asked which coach other than their own they would like to play for.  The top choice by far was Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. 

Not So Fast (Updated)

 The Golden State Warriors started fast and then stalled, with a three game losing streak.  After 1l games they are 6-5.  Other teams rated ahead of them preseason had tougher starts, but several of them are coming around.  So it's an important moment.

There are some anomalies: last year's team couldn't win on the road, this year the Warriors can't seem to win at home.  Last year the starting five was the best in the league and reserves blew leads; this year the starters are struggling and the bench is energetic and effective.  

Most analysts point to the obvious fact that Steph Curry is having a tremendous start--his string of games with four or more 3 pointers alone is unprecedented--but he isn't getting enough scoring help.  It keeps being said that Andrew Wiggins is having a slow start, and Klay Thompson and Chris Paul are in shooting slumps.  When they come around, it is said... But what if they don't?  What if they--or any one of them-- can't?  This is always a possibility with veterans especially.  Though Dario Saric is providing more points than expected, nobody is making up for the 20 points a game they lost when Poole was sent to Washington.

Coach Kerr talks as if he sees this as one of the lows in a long season.  It's true that the Dubs caught Cleveland and Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and when you play teams matters almost as much as who you play.  But there's also this: the Warriors did well in their early games by beating teams they are supposed to beat.  But they aren't yet beating teams they need to beat, elite teams.  They especially having trouble with mobile, skilled bigs--at Denver, and against Cleveland and MN.  So far they've got no answer, offensively or defensively. 

The game Tuesday in Minnesota will really affect the narrative going forward, especially because it is an in-season tournament game.  It's hard to see how Steph can step up his game, so it's going to be up to others and the team as a whole to get it going and get it flowing--especially the starters. 

UPDATE: Wow, who could see that coming--the Warriors went into the game with MN on Tuesday knowing that Steph wasn't playing because of a sore knee (not known yet how bad the injury is.)  Then the game started and before a point was scored, there was a melee, a fracas (two words I love to use), that resulted in Klay and Draymond being ejected, unfairly if you ask their coach.  And the Dubs still almost won the game!  So losing four straight is one thing.  But how the Warriors came together in this one may turn out to be more important in the long run.  They're going to be playing with an edge.  Assuming Steph is back, and maybe even if he isn't, I don't envy being a hot OKC coming to the Warriors' house.

They're Back

 Only four games into the new NBA season and it seems the Golden State Warriors are back in the mix, big time.  They lost their home opener to Phoenix, but given their cold shooting as a team, they kept the game close.  They've had three away games so far.  Last year they lost their first eight.  This year they've won all of the first three.

Chris Paul started the first two games, in the absence of the injured Draymond Green.  By the second game at Sacramento he was already adjusted to the Golden State motion offense.  With Draymond back, he came off the bench for the first time in his storied career against Houston, and led the second team to equal or exceed the starters' in all phases. He did it again in New Orleans the very next night.  Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody were impressive, and back to being healthy, Gary Payton II was outstanding.  The rookies have gotten some minutes and showed up big, especially in rebounding.

Meanwhile Steph Curry is playing with joy again, and putting up big numbers.  He exceeded forty points in two of the four games.  In the back-to-back, he scored a total of 66 points in two nights.    

It's a long season, and so much depends on avoiding injuries.  (But even there this year's team is showing improvement: they won without Draymond in Sacramento, and without Klay and JK in New Orleans.)  But so far the Warriors are doing what they need to do to be a championship team: they are winning on the road, and they are beating teams they are supposed to beat.  

Here It Comes

 In just a few days the NBA season begins.  The new look Golden State Warriors will face immediate tests, beginning with the home opener against Phoenix, widely regard as the team most likely to contend with Denver for the Western Division, and the return of Kevin Durant to SF for the first time in a different uniform.  Then 7 of the next 8 games are on the road, where last year's team played so conspicuously poorly.

The preseason games give Warriors fans reasons to be optimistic, as the newer members of the team played with such tenacity in winning games late, which is when last year's subs often failed.  Preseason doesn't indicate much more, but it does suggest that the Warriors could be, at the very least, a lot more fun to watch this year.

The Warriors have undoubtedly improved, but they are hardly the only team to upgrade, at least on paper, this off-season.  In fact this looks like it may be a very, very competitive season, and an exciting one.

Making it especially exciting is the coming of Victor Wembanyama.  In the Spurs pre-season game with the Warriors it was clear that they as well as the entire league are going to have to at least try to adjust to what this extraordinary player can do.  It's also worth noting that he is not the only giant on the Spurs, and the team's height is likely to challenge the Warriors in their games.  For as improved as the Warriors may be, they still are deficient in height.  

The West looks very strong, and with the stunning preseason debut of Wembanyama, it seems likely that San Antonio is suddenly going to be in the mix.  They are going to win some games and may make the playoffs.  The difference right now between the Spurs and other young teams and the current elite is the lesser ability to finish games, but once they get the feel of how to win, every night is going to be hard-fought. 

So let the games begin.  

Bay Area Teams This Week: Quick Takes

 Niners: With wall to wall sports shows and social media, it's not surprising that a lot of tempests seem much bigger than their teapots.  The 49ers leadership got roasted for paying way too much on the failed experiment of Trey Lance, touted as the quarterback of the future.  What seldom gets mentioned in the same breath is how outrageously little they paid for Brock Purdy, the last draft choice, and now seeming to fit the bill as the franchise quarterback.  Average out those two deals and Purdy is still a bargain.  The Niners are looking very good.  (So no surprise the leadership team is staying.)

Giants: The same may not be in the cards for the leadership team of the San Francisco Giants, now officially out of the playoffs again, and what's worse, playing to half empty stands.  Today's Giants may get a feel for what it used to be like if crowds show up for Brandon Crawford on Sunday.  If the Giants don't bring him back I expect he'll retire.  Will his bosses be retired?  Stay tuned.

Warriors:  As Golden State gets ready for training camp, where decisions will be made on the final roster and on the starting lineup, at least at first, Coach Kerr is talking about "connectivity."  Almost everything everyone in Warriors leadership is saying emphasizes teamwork, putting the team first and being on the same page, on the court and about things like playing time.  Kerr is insistent, and he's been talking this way the entire off-season.  Clearly there's a message to players on the roster and those who want to be, that they will be judged by these standards.  That message is obvious, but the emphasis on it suggests to me that things "in the locker room" were way worse than we were led to believe last season.

WNBA:  That the Warriors may be associated with a Bay Area WNBA team in the near future is exciting news.  I enjoy these games, particularly now in the playoffs, though I have to admit that I have trouble keeping the names of the teams and their cities straight.  I would love to have a Bay Area team to root for.  

Early September

 As of this moment, the Golden State Warriors haven't completely filled out its roster, and may feel some pressure to make a meaningful addition.  The Lakers seem they've just done so, and if it works out they may have completed the puzzle and become a contender.  But really nobody knows how new additions are going to work out, and they probably won't really know until well into the season.  That goes for the Warriors big gamble as well, Chris Paul.

But I can't idly wait for basketball season to start, and the baseball teams I have rooting interest in (the Giants and Pirates) are going nowhere, and the world being what it is, I'll have to swallow my misgivings and get back into football again.

It was fun watching the first week edits of college games, when skilled teams ran up the score.  The big story was Colorado over Clemson, and now Deon Sanders' team is getting a lot of hype.  But that game revealed some possibly significant weaknesses, especially on defense: poor run defense and sloppy tackling.  Nebraska (their next opponent) used to be able to run the ball, but their first game wasn't inspiring, so Colorado should win its home opener.  But if they do run up against a team that can run, they could be in trouble.

The NFL season started with an upset, Detroit's one point win over Kansas City, but KC was missing three significant starters, and they gave up one big play.  So it's doubtful this game will mean anything.  I'm rooting for a Niners championship this year, but I wouldn't be brokenhearted if they lost to the Steelers this week.  That might be the best game of the weekend.

The Challenge of the Dubs

 The Golden State Warriors may still have a few moves to make to augment their roster before the 2023-24 season starts.  But unless it includes a high stakes trade that no one expects, these moves are apt to be modest, especially when it comes to how much they can pay players.  Other teams aren't finished making their moves either, with the Damian Lillard trade the most conspicuous of the unresolved.  But it may not be too early to ask: can this be a championship team this season?

Moves made so far have suggested that bringing a selfless attitude crucial to a championship team has been a priority.  But winning usually comes down to four factors: talent, teamwork (or culture), health and luck (everything from the timing of who you play when to which way the ball bounces.)  Luck is mysterious, health can be encouraged but also depends on luck, so there's only so much a team can do about them.  That leaves teamwork, which the Dubs seem to be giving priority, and talent.  Defensive talent seems to have been improved.  Offensive talent is not so clear.

The essential question is: who not named Steph is going to score enough to win games?  Recall that even with all his deficiencies, J. Poole was good for 20 points a game, especially when he started.  And he played in every game.  Where are those points going to come from?

Chris Paul can score, but his role at this point is uncertain or unknown.  He may well play limited minutes.  He can also help others score.  Draymond said that Paul could "unlock" Jonathan Kaminga, but what the Dubs need most is for him to unlock Andrew Wiggins.  Wiggins can score from anywhere, but his short game can help free up Klay Thompson's outside shooting.  The second unit is at this point a mystery to everybody because it's going to be brand new, but scoring there is also necessary.  Recall that even with Poole's points, the Warriors barely scraped into the playoffs.  Winning regular season games is no longer a given, and certainly not an afterthought.

 How much the Dubs have improved their roster is an open question but even if you believe they did improve it, so did (it's very likely) their competitors in the West, and possibly then in the East.  In addition to the champion Nuggets, the Kings, Lakers and Suns all seem to have strengthened already strong teams.  The Clippers and the Mavericks may be better, and even the Spurs could stir. The competition is likely to be stronger.  However this coming year plays out,  it is unlikely to be an easy ride for the Warriors.   

Update 7/8: The signing of free agent Dario Saric is a coup for the Warriors in several ways: he's authentically tall, can shoot and defend, so he could fill the "big man" role the Warriors lacked; he's played with Chris Paul and they worked well together, and finally, he was probably the best available big at the price.  He seems also to be comfortable being a role player who doesn't always start, and is said to have high hoop intelligence.  All of that certainly changes the dynamic and sounds hopeful...Now it seems likely the Warriors will closely watch the younger players in summer league to decide who gets the last roster spot, and who gets the three two-way slots.  

The Changing of the Dubs

 June has a week to go and already the Warrior team doesn't look like the one that just finished their season a few weeks ago, as I suggested they might not awhile back.  Bob Myers left as GM, several interesting new players were drafted, Draymond opted out of his last contract year and is negotiating a longer term deal. And the Dubs traded Jordan Poole for veteran and likely future Hall of Famer Chris Paul. (The Suns traded Paul to the Wizards, who traded him to the Warriors, so Poole goes to Washington.) Free agency is next.

The writing on the wall for at least one young player was there from Coach Kerr's end of season comments summarized in my last post, that the Warriors this year were not a championship team.  He was more specific in what he meant with his comments on how Miami was an Eastern Conference champion because they played together for the team, and didn't complain about their roles or playing time.  Unless you have that kind of team, he said, you don't win championships.  

But publicly Coach Kerr said he liked the roster the way it was, and in his first press conference as GM, Mike Dunleavy Jr. (promoted from within the organization) said the Warriors were keeping Poole for four years and hopefully longer.  A few days later he traded him--not a great look for credibility but supposedly everyone understands.  

Apparently a lot went on in the locker room this season that didn't get reported, for after the trade reporter Tim Kawakaki noted that no one in the organization expressed regrets at losing Poole, once thought of as the future of the franchise.  The bag of promised money the Warriors save plus the tension between Poole and Draymond now eliminated, both suggest Draymond will get his contract.

Coach Kerr responded to the trade in general terms, saying that after all everybody in the organization knew there had to be a "shift."  Besides a shift in players, the addition of Chris Paul could mean a change in how the Warriors play, or at least how they played this past year.  No one really knows if  they brought in Chris Paul to start or to run the second shift, but it was also reported that Kerr felt the Warriors need a traditional point guard.  Another report said that Steph Curry not only approved of the trade (more or less a necessity) but that he wanted Chris Paul on the team.

There was also talk that the Warriors lacked veteran presence in the locker room, though that's a little harder to swallow.  On the floor maybe, when all the starters weren't there.  Chris Paul is not only 38 but has a history of injuries.  So will they try to do with him what they tried (and failed to do) with Iggy this year, and save him for the playoffs?  

The Warriors still face money difficulties, because they can't stop now--Poole played in every game last year, and Chris Paul won't, so they'll need either bigger minutes from within their present roster, or they'll need another player or two.  The trading may not be over.  Poole was known to complain about playing time (and he really was much better starting), but so apparently was Jonathan Kuminga.  Stories say the Warriors aren't shopping him, but they said that about Poole as well.  

  Even if the Warriors did well with this trade and their draft picks, other teams may well have done better.  As for free agency, there may not be much money to spend but at least their roster is roomy enough now--they also said goodbye to Ryan Rollins and Patrick Baldwin, Jr.  Donte DiVinenzo is widely believed to be leaving for more money, although that now may also change. And it's not even July.  Stay tuned.

Post Mortem

 The Golden State Warriors lost the sixth game and the second round series to the Los Angeles Lakers.  Steph Curry couldn't carry them offensively when J. Poole struggled and Klay Thompson wasn't Game Six Klay this time.  Defensively they once again sent the Lakers to the line too often.  They started slow--shots not falling, maybe low energy--as they often did on the road, came back nearly even a few times but in the end were thoroughly trounced.  It was the game for the Lakers' adjustments and they made the right ones.

Since then the picture emerging is contrary to what we were told during the year.  Coach Kerr said the Dubs had maxed out in the second round, and they were not a championship team.  Apparently he'd seen that for some time.  Stories also emerged, one after another, of dissension, dissatisfaction or at least confusion between the younger members of the team and the core.  The team trust, the strength in numbers we were assured was there, apparently wasn't.  Kerr said that rebuilding the trust and the Warrior culture is an essential off-season task. 

Several coaches of playoff teams that exited in the first and second round have already been fired.  Kerr's job doesn't seem to be in question, but a lot is.  Apparently whether Bob Myers returns as GM is up to him--he's been offered several possible contracts.  Kerr says he wants Draymond back, Draymond says he wants to be back, but those decisions--complicated by new rules regarding how much teams can spend--are yet to be made. Klay Thompson will be negotiating a new contract. The key to all of this may be whether Myers returns.  

Although Kerr says he likes the roster as it is, most outside observes are either clamoring for trades or  resigned to them.  Free agency will very likely take some players, and make others available.  Interesting to me is Steph Curry saying that the Dubs didn't have a change-up to throw at the Lakers.  That change-up might have been James Wisesman.  Although many observers point to the players from last year who weren't on the team this year, we also didn't hear about players who were described as game-changers last year, such as Poole, Wiggins and Payton II.  Wiggins seems to have had one excellent game, just before he got hurt.  Klay had one 30 point game.  Draymond had great games and bad games.  The whole team just wasn't as good this year, obviously not in the regular season but also in the playoffs.  Apart from what's being talked about now, it suggests that in many ways--most of them more psychological than physical, but also the physical toll-- it's very hard to repeat as champions.

The NBA would probably love a Lakers-Celtics finals, but the Lakers might not have enough to conquer Denver this year.  The Celtics should handle Miami but they might not.  One bit of good news as I say goodbye to NBA basketball this season: the San Antonio Spurs won the draft lottery, and the right to draft the young French player who is being called a generational talent, Victor Wembanyama.  It's good news for the NBA and for the kid, because the Spurs are a class organization, and Gregg Popovich is as good a coach as Wembanyama could hope for, particularly since he brought alone a previous French star, Tony Parker, and two previous number one picks, David Robinson and Tim Duncan. 

Doing the Math

The major advantage of winning the first game of a series, apart from setting a tone, is that the team that wins it doesn't have to win two games in a row to win the series.  Since the playoffs are characterized by game to game adjustments, this is significant--especially for the Lakers, who tend to be a team that shows up every other game.

If the Warriors had won the third game, that would have negated that advantage.  However the Lakers have now won the first and third games, so they are on track.  The Warriors on the other hand cannot win the series now without winning at least two games in a row.  They won three in a row against the Kings, but this series is a bigger challenge. 

So winning the fourth game is pretty important for the Warriors.  They may have to count on a alternate game letdown from the Lakers, though, because the Lakers won decisively on Saturday by playing their game--getting Anthony Davis inside, rebounding and especially by getting alot of points on foul shots, which had the added advantage of slowing the game to a standstill and preventing the Warriors from setting the pace.  

The foul shot disparity, very much the Lakers game, was accelerated by--according to Coach Kerr--the Warriors losing their poise.  That's discouraging, and not something you'd expect from a team so experienced in playoff basketball.  Steph Curry and the other Warriors had a bad to lukewarm shooting day as well, which may have added to their frustration.  The Lakers even shot a better percentage of threes.

If the Warriors can get a win in the fourth game, they've got the fifth game at home, and so are well-positioned to win a seven game series. Then it would be the Lakers who would have to win two in a row. If the Warriors don't win the fourth, then it's a much steeper climb.  They would have to win both their home games and still win the sixth in Los Angeles.  

None of us out here really know how hard it is to win an NBA playoff game.  Some years the Warriors seemed to fly through the playoffs (as a couple of Lakers teams did in the past), and it was all pretty joyful and fun.  But look around the playoffs and you don't see any teams like that this year.  Every team is struggling at times.  It looks like this year it will be the last team standing.