Debate Numbers

The first audience estimates are in: over 51 million viewers, a larger audience than the second debate, despite two baseball playoff games at the same time.

Our assumption is that this means voters were still looking at John Kerry, and the polls indicate that they continue to like what they saw. This should translate to independents and undecided going to Kerry, and those leaning towards Kerry solidifying their vote for him.

If you assume that watching baseball is still a mostly male avocation, then the audience for last night's debate must have included an awful lot of women. Kerry made specific connection with women's issues and with issues of family economics, and he continued to show as well as tell, the strength that some pollsters saw as affecting women who were moving towards Bush before the debates began. And that poll that showed college educated women giving Kerry the debate by 20 points, also figures into the calculation.