Stretch Run

The NBA stretch run to the playoffs has begun.  With 20 or so regular season games to go, it still looks like Houston v. Golden State.

The Warriors addressed their slow first quarter starts with a lineup change: JaVale McGee starting at center, with Zaza coming off the bench.  In the first two games back, it worked very well: McGee gave the Dubs a starting surge of energy and electricity at the rim.  Hot shooting carried the first game, improved defense the second, leading to a late game eruption of scoring for a 32 point victory over OKC. McGee still has his problems but just a month or so after it looked as if the Dubs were preparing fans for his trade away from the team, he's proven to be a piece of the puzzle.

Still, Houston won their first two back as well, including a close game against Denver.  Winning the close ones is a necessary skill for a contender.  Houston's confidence must be sky high, they're riding the destiny train.  I don't see them losing more than 2 games the rest of this season, even with a tougher schedule than Golden State.  They could win out.

So could the Dubs but more likely they'll lose a couple more.  That would keep the standings static and give Houston home court. In the playoffs OKC is a challenge for both teams, perhaps more for Houston, but a Rockets-Warriors western conference championship series seems as close to inevitable as these things get.  The key for both teams is keeping all their stars healthy, because the team that loses just one will be at a big disadvantage.

Houston is hungry, and the Dubs have the advantage (that is also a disadvantage) of experience.  They seem back on track now but it doesn't take much to become a distraction.  Houston isn't likely to get distracted, at least not until the playoffs.  If everybody's healthy, that series goes seven, which means it's up for grabs.

The East meanwhile continues to be unimpressive.  Boston has faded, Toronto proves vulnerable and after a dominating start with its new lineup, the Cavs look not so great as that.  They lost to a depleted Spurs team on a losing streak.  None of these teams seem capable of taking either the Warriors or the Rockets in a 7 game series.

Things have a way of not working out so neatly, so there's potential drama ahead.  But right now, Houston and Golden State seemed fated to clash for all the marbles.