Howlers

Since the debate, a number of howlers from the media just seemed to explode: mere hours after a Daily Show joke about a reporter who writes his account of the debate several days before the debate takes place, AP accidentally posted just such a story, hours before the debate started.

Then Fox News ran a story with quotes from Kerry after the debate that were faked. Their reporter said something like he was just kidding and it wasn't supposed to get posted on their web site.

Then Fox (or Faux, as some are calling it) ran quotes from a Communists for Kerry organization, which turns out to be a group of Republican college students (and they weren't really hiding that fact.) Add this as well to the list of "undecided voters" interviewed by media that turn out to be GOPer activists---including a GOP political consultant. Needless to say they all had bad things to say about Kerry.

Here however is another Kerry misquote originating and repeated in the New York Times---exactly the kind of crap that dogged Gore last time. No wonder it's getting harder to teach journalism in this country. What models can you offer?

The Daily Howler

Movement

Cautious pundits wondered if the Kerry victory in the first debate would translate into better poll numbers. One widely quoted pro figured Bush's lead would diminish a couple of points.

But in the first poll since the debate, NBC finds that Bush's lead is completely gone, and that in a two-way matchup, Kerry leads.
MSNBC - The Race is On

October and Surprise

If it's not the great echo-chamber effect of the media---and we suspect this time it isn't---then John Kerry did himself a world of good by winning the first debate. Now the rest of October looks a whole lot better. Anticipation is high for the Edwards-Cheney debate. If the Bush performance was a wake-up call for Cheney, it might do him some good, but Cheney is Cheney. Kerry's performance has given John Edwards inspiration. Dems are likely licking their chops waiting for this one.

The usual trend is for audience to fall off for the second and third debate, but as one of the better informed political analysts pointed out, this didn't happen with the Bush-Clinton debates: the audiences kept growing, once they realized that Clinton was for real (although Ross Perot was the entertainment). He expects the same to happen this year. If so, Kerry could land the knockout punch in the next debate, which will include domestic issues. He doesn't have to total Bush so much as seal the deal with Ohio and PA, and get back in control in the other battleground states where he was leading up to last week or two. Then the final debate, on domestic issues, leaves Kerry talking about health care, jobs, education, science, etc. and Bush talking about tax cuts. Kerry still has to make convincing cases, but if he's even up by then, the issues favor him.

Kerry may have already won PA with the first debate. If he convinced enough suburban women, Dems as well as Reps, that he's presidential and prudent, strong and smart.

If Kerry does no worse than come out pretty even in the next two debates, he'll still be riding a tide of Dem enthusiasm, which should motivate the most crucial element of all---turnout on election day.

But what about the October surprise? A terrorist attack on US soil? Kerry is not so automatically damaged by this as might have been the case last week; it depends on his response. More problematic is the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden. Kerry put so much emphasis on getting bin Laden that this could be a scramble. But when asked about the possibility not long ago, Kerry had a ready answer, so this possibility is probably being planned for.

Should we mention that Kerry emphasized homeland security, which we said in July he should, and that he used our "fresh start" line? No, it would be immodest. And as everyone knows the way to get ahead in politics is to be modest.

Reaction Shots

The two sides agreed to rules that ruled out reaction shots. They made the agreement public (for the first time) and Bill Moyers did a terrific piece on the debate commission and how it foils actual debate. So the networks revolted and they showed both Kerry and Bush side by side, split screen, for major parts of the debate.

We started watching on C-Span which kept both men on screen all the time, but it was too distracting. So on the merits of argument, Kerry had a good first half, and Bush had a pretty good first half. The second half was all Kerry.

But it turned out that in addition to the merits, the split screen showed GW smirking and pouting and looking like he didn't want to be there with this pesky challenger---exactly the affect that clocked his dad in a crucial debate with Clinton. Kerry wins on style, too? Who would have predicted that?

Kerry must have taken the measure of this guy, because he did one especially effective thing---he refused to be baited. Giving Bush no direct argument on "mixed messages" except to show him up, he left Bush repeating and repeating, sounding more and more hollow.

The pundits afterwards were the usual trip. Very gingerly in their evaluations until the instant poll results started to come in---Kerry winning in the ABC and CBS surveys, and in MsNBC's call-in survey that got close to a half million calls, Kerry won 70%, Bush 30%. And suddenly all the pundits were saying that Kerry clearly was the winner, and they knew exactly why.

Spin Thrift

by Theron Dash

Why even have this debate (set to begin in an hour and a half as I write this)? The pre-wash spin cycle has already awarded the victory to Bush. The pundits have decided the test will be likeability, and they've decided---partly on the basis of polls---that Bush is the likeable candidate. So he'll win, unless he makes some horrendous goof, and even then, he'll do it likeably.

So they've not only made likeability the defining test, they've defined who is likeable. You know, it ain't necessarily so. I don't find GW Bush likeable. I wouldn't want his smirk, his demanding ego, his pathological lying and his idiot mouth in my back yard. He's the guy at the bar I put as much distance from as possible.

John Kerry is curious, he reads widely, he's interested in the world, he's been places and done things, he has a good sense of humor and appreciation of wit. He'd be a fascinating companion for an afternoon or an evening. Then all politicians get wearing, like actors. Kerry plays guitar and tosses the football around. So do I. I'd sure rather do that than have to watch Bush clear brush, or respond to his need for constant praise.

Anyway, likeability polls or not, think on this: a few months ago when Bush was dropping like a stone in the re-elect polls, he was still voted more likeable. And he was annointed the most likeable in 2000, yet he became president only because some supreme court justices liked his daddy. The unlikeable Mr. Gore got like a million more votes.

So let's make John Kerry President. I don't mind if we give the Most Likeable consolation
prize to Bush.

D-Day is Thursday

Thursday is D Day, the so-called debate,that is being positioned as the last chance for John Kerry to convince voters he should be President.

Opinion poll results are driving news coverage which is setting very high expectations for what John Kerry has to do to "win" the debate on Thursday. Though there are no discernable standards by which one wins or loses, except the consensus of the conventional wisdom, which could change completely if contradicted by voting results of election day.

There's some noise from those who study these numbers that the polls are getting less reliable. Some talk that they are conveniently reflecting the results their corporate sponsors find to be in their interests. And since polls drive coverage which sets the conventional wisdom...they can wind up meaning something regardless of how right or wrong they are.

But when it all starts to feel like 2000 again, stomachs fall and eyes turn to the borders. What's different this time? Howard Dean says elections are won not by appealing to so-called swing voters but by energizing the base. The Kerry campaign seems to be adopting that philosophy, though the media seems to think it's more from necessity than choice. But it's clear that there is a strong anti-Bush sentiment that wasn't there in 2000. Kerry and Edwards are talking that talk.

Gore kept Clinton at arms length, and if he hadn't he'd probably be President. Kerry's not making that mistake either. Even from a hospital bed, Clinton can affect electoral votes.

So what does Kerry need to do on Thursday night? According to the media, the impossible. He has to come across as an appealing guy, and he has to beat up Bush. Hard to know what that would look like.

Our unsolicited advice is simple: stand still, look into the camera, be clear. Talk about goals for Iraq as well as means. Don't smile unless something is funny. You're the serious one, go with your strength. Don't take any crap, but don't lose your cool. Oh yeah, and relax.

Kerry probably can't play it too safe. His best chance to befuddle the media is to come up with something in advance that will throw Bush obviously off his game. His second best chance is to improvise it on the spot. He may need to do (that is, say) something unexpected to win the expectations game.


You may have noticed that the Bushies are quietly pulling back from doing anything controversial. They've dropped attempts to drill in the Montana wilderness, and to have hemp food banned as part of their war on drugs. (We're not kidding---they were about to take it to the Supremes.) They've gotten good reaction for moderating, and they need to, because even the polls that show Bush ahead also show that by a very wide margin people expect him to make big changes if he's reelected.

I wouldn't bet on that. This is just electioneering. The insanity will return and we promise you it will get worse. This was Weimar compared to the Reich to come.

You Said It

"I don't think Iraq will have a perfect election. And if I recall, looking back at our own election four years ago, it wasn't perfect either."

General John Abizaid
top U.S. military commander for Iraq
Meet the Press Sunday 9/26/04