Concession Stand

The Dash brothers concede that despite their efforts, the Bush brothers and their evil minion Darth Rove have retained their slimy grip on the Mirror Universe. So we return to our own universe for awhile, except for Gabriel, who has taken refuge in his own alternative universe where the Crosscurrents opened for the Beatles in Pittsburgh 1966, and a winning lottery ticket currently finances the reunion concert of the Basement Peacock Band; and Theron, who is addicted to outrage and so remains hidden somewhere nearby.

For those who insist on silver linings, Chris Bowers offers his politico analysis in "Our New Base" at the blog:

MyDD :: Due Diligence of Politics, Election Forecast & the World Today

We offer a further thought on how the Democrats can become a majority party again.

Once again, a Democratic presidential candidate with superior credentials, intellect, experience and temperament has crashed against a blind red wall. There will be recriminations and second guessing, all self-destructive nonsense. John Kerry was pretty much the best the Democrats have: a war hero, an anti-war hero, former prosecutor and defense attorney, a lieutenant governor and veteran Senator, with experience in foreign policy, a commitment to health, education and jobs for the middle class, and creative ideas on energy and the environment. Others may have different strengths, but they also have weaknesses Kerry doesn't, especially in terms of red states appeal. On balance, the usual suspects---from Howard Dean to John Edwards---aren't significantly better.

Liberal Democrat, New Democrat, progressive--- when it comes to even potential electoral impact, they seem distinctions without a difference. The change isn't going to come from progressive think tanks or liberal talk radio, or even the Internet and the blogosphere, as essential as all those may be to any transformation. To become the majority over the long term, the Democrats will have to rebuild by anticipating the coming American majority. The difference is not ideology or strategy. The Democrats must anticipate the end of the era of white male dominance. And the white men who are now the face of the party must eventually take a secondary role behind the scenes, becoming the mentors, the advisors, the elders. They must advance candidates of color, beginning now.

It's not that something is wrong with these white men, or with what we blithely categorize as white men in general (a category with its own problems to be sure, considering that it supposedly includes the powerful and powerless, gutless warmongers and courageous peacemakers, among other opposites.) Nor are we saying that white males aren't part of the future. They just aren't going to dominate it anymore.

It's become an instant truism that Barack Obama, whose easy election to the Senate from Illinois was virtually the only bright spot on the electoral map, represents the future of the Democratic party. But it's a broader representation than his own personal ascendancy. While that future in terms of running for president may be more than four years away, the party needs to commit to a transformation that makes Obama the template as well as the emerging star.

More people of color, especially reflecting the multiracial character of the emerging America, must be identified, mentored and backed with campaign funds. Party leaders must search the nonprofits and foundations as well as local communities and state governments. And while they prepare this new generation, they must prepare themselves to step aside.

We make this suggestion as more or less white, male Democrats of Kerry's generation. Of course we are far from being party leaders, so we have nothing to lose (or gain) by this suggestion. Still, it feels right that we should be the ones saying it. We believe that John Kerry was the best choice to be President this year. But if someone with his credentials could not defeat an incumbent with so many liabilities, then our generation needs to look to a different future. We may have another election to go (especially if "we" includes a white woman) but the conscious process needs to start now.

This doesn't confront the apparent ideological divide, or even struggle trying to define it. It simply anticipates the future, and thereby changes the game. The nation will soon follow California in having no majority race. Multiracial individuals like Obama and Tiger Woods are everywhere, in red states as well as blue. There are so many nationalities, so many combinations, that different points of view are inevitable, and the resulting mix of political ideas and strategies is unpredictable. But as Obama's speech to the convention this year illustrated, these individuals can find Democratic party values inspiring, and they can assimilate and adapt and express them so they will be attractive to new electorates, creating new coalitions.

If the Democrats aggressively become the voice of this future, they follow their traditional path to a majority party. The traditional Democratic values of equality, fairness, generosity and public service can be energized and redefined through values formed in urban and suburban Asian, African-American and Latino communities, in rural Native American communities, and in hybrids of all kinds everywhere, as well as through contact with the larger culture. There are inherent dangers of race-based politics, which is why the guidance of the most experienced leaders is needed. But the truth is that anyone getting ahead in America also moves laterally, and comes in contact with different people, cultures and communities. The individuals who emerge from this process necessarily have a different point of view that is alive to the times.

This is a natural evolution well underway. But for the sake of its survival as well as its soul, the Democratic party should commit to accelerating that process by recruiting and backing candidates of color for major offices, like the still overwhelmingly white U.S. Senate. Kerry's generation should lead that effort, and while they lead today, they should also be preparing to get out of the way.

Agonizing Reappraisals

It will take time to sort out just what happened. But there's not much that's encouraging. It does look like a record turnout, and it does look like a lot of young people and new voters voted. But the most prophetic book turns out to be "What's the Matter With Kansas?" which asked why so many middle Americans vote against their own interests. That's apparently what happened.

We don't want to believe that this election was lost when the first gay couples kissed and exchanged marriage vows on television. But that is indeed a possibility.

We've heard directly what we knew would be true: The disdain much of the world had for George Bush did not always extend to ordinary Americans or America in general. But now that Bush has apparently been re-elected with a popular vote majority, it will.

Do we say now, I'm from California, or I'm from Pennsylvania? In trying to illustrate the absurdity of European wars, H.G. Wells hypothesized the unthinkable situation of Kentucky going to war against Virginia, since those states are roughly the size of France and Germany. On some level, it is not so clearly absurd anymore.

For political professionals, actual or aspiring, the fight will go on. This election showed at least that there's the financial basis and interest to work for progressive political change. And there will be much work to do, at first in fierce opposition, as Bush moves quickly to enact his program. He may be appointing a Supreme Court justice by the end of the week.

But for those of us who made not a dime from politics or from writing about it, who invested much but got no return, it is a time of reassessment. That includes this future of this little blog. Life is short, and in the Dark Ages, it can be shorter still.

Extra Innings

Ohio has tightened up, perhaps enough that the provisional and disputed ballots will come into play. MsNBC has called Ohio for Bush, the other networks haven't. Kerry has not conceded Ohio or the election.

So what is the issue that dominates---is it Iraq? Is it the economy? Is it terrorism? Early in the evening, exit polls showed the economy and Iraq. But by now in the states going to Bush the prevailing issue was something called Moral Values.

Kerry is still leading in the other states he needs. Kerry is at 211 electoral votes and Bush at 249. 270 needed for the presidency. If Kerry does win these states, and Bush doesn't get to 270, then it is highly likely that Ohio will hinge on the provisional ballots, which will not be counted for 11 days.

Bush may declare victory tonight. But it's unlikely that Kerry will concede tonight, so this may be the last blog entry of the night.

Report now that some voters have stood in line for TEN hours. The last voter in one precinct may not vote until 3 am. Why? Two machines for a big turnout, an obvious attempt to limit voting. This could be contested state whichever way it goes.

Republicans have won enough seats to retain control of the Senate. Will retain control of the House.

Ninth inning

the Red Sox are down and almost out. But not quite. You can win a bunch in a row and take the prize.

Florida looks lost, and networks have given it to Bush. Everything hinges on Ohio. At the moment Kerry is ahead in the other states he needs to win, and the big Ohio Democrat urban vote is coming in. The Cleveland area. Slow vote count in Cinncinatti as well. Both sides are saying they're internal numbers favor them. This is where the election is going to be decided.

Personally I like blowouts. But so much is at stake.

The Moving Wire

Kerry has won Pennsylvania and California, so there are but 9 electoral votes separating the candidates. Florida and Ohio are still out, and they could still be out for days and perhaps a week.

CNN is reporting that the Kerry people believe they will probably lose Florida. The only hope is a last minute surge from South Florida that gets the vote to the point where the early voting and absentee votes will make the difference.

On the other hand, Ohio is still very much in play, but the GOPers are reportedly slowing things down with law suits.

In the blogger vs. cable scenarios for the election, it looks like the cable view is closer to what's happening. Josh Marshall has said flatly on his blog that the youth vote did not materialize. That's very bad news. But statistically there was a large surge of new voters.

The midwestern states are still out, and that's where the Kerry campaign has concentrated over the last weeks. Absent Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan are all crucial to Kerry.

Ten Eastern, Same Old

CNN projects Utah for Bush. Boy that's a tough one. He was only ahead in the polls there by about 45 points. No other states projected. Virtually no swing states have been projected yet.

At ten eastern, the exuberance of earlier in the evening is sinking a bit. But Kerry looks good in New Hampshire and PA, and exit polls still show him ahead in Ohio. The big mystery is Florida, where so far Kerry is running behind exit poll projections. But the big Democratic counties are just starting to report, and nobody is sure if early votes (which seemed to be largely Kerry) and absentees are yet in the vote count. Lots of suspicion that Florida is carefully fixed again this time.

Kerry needs PA and either Ohio or Florida. If he gets two of the three, he still needs most of the midwest. If he gets all three, as looked possible and still may be, he's on his way. Right now the GOPers are winning the spin, hoping to influence in western states where polls are still open. Kerry people haven't been seen for awhile.

The tantalizing element here has been that safe Bush states weren't called for hours, but when they were, they were still safe Bush states.

Carville is saying that Bush needs to win both Ohio and Florida. Kerry needs to win one of them.

Missouri is tighter than expected, which may be good for Kerry---if he unexpectedly picks it up. If he just gets close, not so good because they pulled ads out. Joe Lockhart is talking a good game but doesn't look confident. He sounds either worried or excited. But at least the Kerry case is being made. Democratic counties still not in, in Ohio and Florida. Some of the delay may well be because of the huge turnout. CNN just cut off Lockhart, while they showed Bush watching returns.

Florida: Absentee votes in Broward, Miami-Dade and other counties may not be counted until Thursday. GOPers are gaming the system in Florida and Ohio. But they may only be able to postpone the results. Maybe the idea is to give hope to the western GOPers, where Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico will be close probably.

At 9p

No projections in Midwest and western battleground states. Electoral vote tally is Bush 155, Kerry 112.

Florida not looking real good for Kerry in early count. So far the huge turnouts aren't affecting outcomes, and the Bushies are saying votes are better for them than exit polls suggest.

Update on PA: it's only one precinct in Pittsburgh staying open until 930, to file provisional ballots, according to CNN. It is near University of Pittsburgh---probably my niece Sarah's polling place.

The hope that this wouldn't be a long night is fading.

Breath-holding time

CNN has given Virginia to Bush. These longs waits for Virginia and North Carolina have been indicative, maybe, but we won't really know for awhile. Hopes for early indications from Florida and Ohio, and decision in PA, not coming through. Bush people are claiming that votes from Florida and other states are showing more Bush strength than indicated by exit polls.

But the long lines in Ohio and PA are hopeful. The next big indicator will be the midwest and west, where polls begin closing in a few minutes. But nets have established a pattern of caution so may not be many calls.

Ohio: in Cleveland, absentee ballots show big margin for Kerry but maybe not big enough.
Allegheny County in PA hours extended by hour and a half, contested by GOPer. Several other counties in PA have hours extended.

Litigation in Florida over Miami-Dade not counting absentee ballots.

Ohio continued

In Columbus and other Ohio cities, long lines remain, perhaps hours long. Democrats have sued successfully to get paper ballots for voters in line, so they won't be there until midnight. Apparently there were fewer voting machines than even in 2000 in some polling places, although everyone knew turnout would be higher.

North Carolina and South Carolina have been called for Bush, as expected, but both didn't come in as soon as expected. Arkansas at 8:30 is too early to call.

Barak Obamba has won the Senate in Illinois, as expected. Too close to call in PA, South Carolina, North Carolina Senate races, which is good for Dems.

The Big Ones (Part I)

Projected Kerry
all of New England except New Hampshire (too early), Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC.
Here are significant too close to call because they should all have been Bush wins by now: Virginia, North Carolina and Missouri.
Florida and Ohio are still not called. PA and New Hampshire are important states the networks are being very cautious about, saying it's "too early" to call, meaning not enough vote data.

Senate races are going great---many too close to call that should have been GOPer.

Other news of the hour
A potential problem with impounded absentee ballot in Philadephia, won't be resolved until tomorrow. Only significant if margin out of Philadelphia for Kerry is less than 350,000.

Exit polls in Ohio show younger voters largest proportion of new voters, heavily Kerry.
Young voters keeping North Carolina too close to call, voting 60% for Kerry.

NAACP in court to keep polls open in Detroit because of alleged voter intimidation.

At 7:30

Ohio and North Carolina too close to call, just after polls closed. This does not indicate the results will be extremely close in the end, because undoubtedly people are still voting.
Virginia is still too close to call.
South Carolina and West Virginia too early to call.

South Florida has begun counting votes. Central Florida polls still open.

First Calls

The predictables: Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky for Bush; Vermont for Kerry. The Big News: Virginia is too close to call. That's excellent for Kerry.

Towards a Steal-Proof Victory

Zogby is projecting a Kerry victory with over 300 electoral. NBC's right track/wrong track and Bush's approval ratings in exit polls are around 50%, not good for Bush.

Florida looks like it will be several hours past their 7:30 closing time before all polls are closed, but there may be some key areas reporting early because of heavy early voting.

Some of the turnout numbers are incredible. Iowa talking about 80% plus, precincts in Florida at 90%. Anecdotal evidence is high youth vote turnout.

First polls close in about five minutes.

An hour from the first poll closing, the exit polls continue to be very good for Kerry, leading in all the non-southwestern swing states, though his margin in Florida is very thin. So far the biggest surprise could be Kerry's margin of victory in Pennsylvania, but these polls are suggestive, not definitive.

There are still lines waiting to vote in the east and midwest, even in a non-swing state like Georgia.

The cable networks are saying that voting problems have been relatively few. But the Internet is very slow, so those reports to the big blogs are harder to come by at the moment.

Ohio continued

Reports of 3 hour lines in the rain in Columbus. Also look for this situation: if Bush wins Ohio by fewer than 200,000 votes, and the election hangs on Ohio, it won't be over. That's about how many provisional ballots are expected. It may also be the case if Kerry wins the state by fewer than 200,000 because GOPer appointed judges are clearly favoring GOP efforts to intimidate and suppress voters, and Ohio is unclear on how they will judge and count provisional ballots.

This is the most potentially serious situation to emerge on what has so far been a fairly smooth election day. The GOPer friendly federal appeals court just ruled that GOPer challengers in Ohio can use their lists to challenge voters, which seems to negate the "personal knowledge" rule. The outcome may be to increase the provisional ballots even more.

TURNOUT RECORD HIGH so far in Florida, PA, lines in Ohio, etc. One precinct in Philadelphia recorded more votes before noon than all election day in 2000. PA on track to challenge record turnout of 1960.

Anecdotal evidence is that turnout is high in Wisconsin, where same-day registration and voting is attracting young voters, absolutely uncounted in any polls.

The Internet is going a little nuts. Some of the big blogs are down and my last post was apparently lost. At the risk of repeating myself:
Analysis in Ohio, PA, Florida and Michigan show voting is especially high in African-American and Latino districts, Democratic precincts and precincts that went to Gore in 2000.

Polls close in Indiana and Virginia in about 2.5 hours, at 7 eastern. If Virginia reports slowly or goes to Kerry, that's real good because it's been expected for Bush.

Then Ohio and North Carolina are supposed to close at 7:30, though if there are still lines, the polls won't close until everyone in line has voted. If North Carolina is slow reporting or goes for Kerry-Edwards, and if Ohio is called for Kerry, it's time to get the champagne ready.

Then other eastern states close at 8, and the night takes shape.

It's half past noon in California. The early exit polls show Kerry ahead in all the battleground states except Iowa, where he is tied. The early exit polls in semi-battlegrounds of Colorado and Arizona favor Bush.

Ohio is turning out to be as down and dirty as predicted. A late ruling by a GOPer appointed federal judge this morning permits GOPer challengers to be in polling places, and reports of intimidation are already coming in. Also a number of voters who didn't receive their absentee ballots showed up at polling places and were denied ballots or provisional ballots. But just now a federal judge has ruled that they must be given provisional ballots, under federal election law. Provisional ballots will be checked for eligibility and counted but not for 11 days.

I voted a few minutes ago at the Sunset School in Arcata. Its educational to vote in a school, passing kids at desks, waiting for yellow school buses pulling up at the entrance, playing in the playground, their art decorating the hall outside the polling place. We're voting for their future.

There weren't any lines at my polling place but workers say lots of people have voted. Nationally, the traditional heavier Democratic voters will start going to the polls, starting right about now in the East. It's not the reliable rule it used to be, but Democrats often vote after work. So the 3:30 shift is coming to an end. And if this holds up, the early exit polls look especially interesting.

Early analysis shows turnout in Ohio, Florida, PA and Michigan is heaviest in African-American and Latino districts, in Democratic precincts and precincts that went to Gore in 2000.

Reporters on the scene in Ohio say lots of young people and new voters. Rain is crossing Ohio but so far voter turnout is high in Cleveland, Columbus and across the state.

Indiana, Kentucky and Virginia are the first to close polls in about 2.5 hours. Virginia may be the first harbinger: if it's close, or Kerry wins it, it suggests a big Kerry night. If it goes to Bush, that's expected.

Ohio and North Carolina close at 7:30, though if there still are lines, polls won't close until everyone in line has voted. Look at NC: if projections are slow or Kerry wins. If there's an early call for Kerry in Ohio, it's time to get the champagne ready to pop at 8.

Then at 8, other eastern states, and the returns take shape.

VK Day:
Big Voting Day Underway


Here's the ABC story on heavy turnouts at the beginning of the day. I note especially the turnouts in Pittsburgh, including one polling place where I used to vote:

ABC News: Lines of Voters Try to Cast Ballots Early

V minus .25

Saw Kerry in Cleveland on C-Span. Introduced by the Boss: "My fellow guitar player and the next President of the United States." Kerry's stump speech honed to perfection. Great crowd in the rain.

A word about blogging. I'm going to blog on election day because you never know who is out there. Even though I doubt more than a handful of people read this blog, there are one or two of you who are depending on it for some of the news on election day. But it's the big blogs that are already making a difference. Monday a lot of primarily elderly voters in Florida were getting phone calls telling them their polling places had changed, when of course they hadn't. One 70 year old woman happened to be a Kerry activist and blew the whistle. Soon Kerry hqs and other outfits knew about it, an appeal was put on the kos site to contact news media with the story, and by the 11 oclock news, TV stations in the affected cities were leading with it. A tried and true voter suppression tactic had run smack up against smart voters and the Internet. Specifically the blogger network.

So there's likely to be a lot of info of local interest on the blogs, lots of information will be perishable but important. The blogosphere has an entirely different take on the election than the networks and cable media. It's going to be fascinating to see who is closer to reality. For the record, kos is predicting a bigger Kerry victory than we are, and MyDD (one of the first and still most respected) is predicting a tighter Kerry victory. In his last appearances, Kerry got almost mystical. He sees a very big moment coming, as do these bloggers. The Get Out the Vote efforts are going to be crucial, and there's a lot of happy warriors out there. Nervous, but happy. And warriors.

From AmericanSamizat Election Headquarters

Early returns:
Gallup poll survey of early voters in Florida: Kerry 51% Bush 43%
Des Moines Register survey of early voters in Iowa: Kerry 52% Bush 41%

This represents approximately 1/3 of the 2000 Florida vote, and almost 30% of Iowa's.

Now that we've got simultaneous Internet and TV going, we're ready to make our official American Samizat election prediction:
Kerry 52% Bush 47%
Kerry wins with over 300 electoral votes.

Rain showers forecast for Ohio and PA tomorrow. Usually would be bad for turnout, especially Dems, but not this year. The more committed voters will vote, as Florida is showing right now. Though the Bush core is passionate, there is also a lot of dissatisfaction within his base, and moderate R's are torn. The anti-Bush voters have been waiting for this moment for months and years. They aren't going to let a little rain stop them.

The rest of the 99 reasons to vote for John Kerry

44. safeguard Social Security
45. No to drug companies and HMOs controlling health care.
46. Save Medicare without costly Bush tricks.
47. Actually promote healthy forests.
48. End Bush attacks on Clean Air Act.
49. Bobby Kennedy Jr. at EPA
50. Control real WMDs in Iran and North Korea
51. Join the world on nuclear weapons treaty
52. Reality-based politics
53. A President with intellectual curiosity
54. Bring back complete sentences
55. Create jobs, not corporate power.
56. A new FCC to control Big Media.
57. Bruce Springsteen plays at Inauguration.
58. Bill Clinton, Secretary-General of the United Nations
59. Save public health system.
60. Fund good education for every child
61. Help for middle class kids to go to college
62. a President whose ideas of the arts doesn't end with country music.
63. Against death penalty vs. Bush who approved execution of mentally retarded.
64. Pay as you go policy in new federal spending
65. Reads books not involving pet goats.
66. Former prosecutor
67. Former defense attorney who saved the life of an unjustly convicted man
68. war hero
69. anti-war hero
70. endorsed by Native American leaders
71. restore legitimacy to the presidency
72. he's no George Bush
73. smart daughters
74. Teresa
75. John Edwards
76. knows how many Internets there are
77. no bimbo eruptions
78. no more Roveing in the White House
79. retire Bush's brain
80. can think and talk at the same time.
81. end government by secrecy and intimidation
82. after school programs
83. Kerry learns from his mistakes, and his successes.
84. recognizes poverty and hunger as problems for public sector.
85. make public service fashionable again
86. real leadership, not just manipulating fear
87. redeems baby boomers and hope of the 60s
88. gives America a second chance in eyes of the world
89. a smart war on terror
90. capable of confronting the complexities of Iraq
91. has thought about technology and the future
92. brings hope
93. racial justice
94. we can be better
95. can't reward Bush for illegal and immoral war on Iraq
96. can't reward Bush for lying and incompetence
97. can't reward Bush for stupidity and cruelty
98. our long international nightmare could be over
99. a Fresh Start.

Election Centrals

What's the media up to on election day? Two words: caution and entertainment. The three broadcast networks and CNN have gone to great pains to announce they are going to be extra cautious about their projections, even though they will project using the same basic kinds of data: exit polls first, then key precinct returns, augmented by interviews. They aren't going to race to be the first to project winners in states (ha ha. That'll last about an hour.) Why the caution? The "mistakes" they made in 2000 by projecting Gore winning Florida, then Bush winning it and the election. Well, they ought to know that they didn't make a mistake in projecting Gore as the winner. The exit polls told them he did because a hell of a lot of people thought they HAD VOTED FOR GORE. The Palm Beach fiasco alone in which tens of thousands of Gore votes went to Pat Buchanan or were invalidated threw the election to the capable hands of Scalia and Thomas.

So if they aren't going to project winners and compete to be the first to do so, why are people going to watch them and not the other guy? Entertainment. Lots and lots of graphics and stuff. Like NBC with their vote projection map of America on the skating rink of Democracy Plaza aka Rockerfeller Center in NYC. Watch girls in short skating skirts and guys in buttclinging spandex assist reporters falling on their asses as America votes in the most important election of our lifetime.

Okay, a few more notes before American Samizat sets up its official election headquarters, which involves moving the laptop into a room with a television set:

84% of those in CNN poll said they intend to vote.

In New Mexico, 40% have already voted. On the Navajo reservation, 10,000 new registrants, and a big push to get out the vote. In a closely contested state, they could very well be the difference.

V minus 1

Curtis Gans of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate expects a record turnout for this election, in the range of 118 to 121 million. The election in 2000 was around 105 million. He expects this turnout to surpass the 58% in 1992, the first Clinton win.

The additional voters come from two sources: people who don't normally vote and people who are voting for the first time. In both groups are young people, who trend towards Kerry more than any other demographic group trends towards anybody.

I'll bet that's what Kerry will be thinking about as he takes the stage tonight with the Boss, Bruce Springstein.

Gans thinks the higher the turnout, the better it is for Kerry.

All the polls are tight, or hedging their bets. Poor Fox is showing Kerry ahead. Apparently Rush is having a heart attack on the air. CNN's Gallup poll and poll of polls show Bush with a statistically insignificant lead nationally. But a few things about their internals are interesting: both the missing munitions in Iraq AND the Osama tape are helping Kerry---his numbers on Iraq and the war on terror are up.

So far today, no big news as the election dominates. Suicide bomber in Israel is the only story with potential to move votes, but not many.

The state by state polls are still extremely close, when they aren't all over the place. Here are the good signs: there appears to be a Sunday trend towards Kerry, and late deciders breaking for Kerry. Bush can't crack an average of 48% in the polls, and his presidential favorability remains around 50% or below. We've said for weeks that if the polls are even by election day, Kerry has the advantage.

Why? Because early voters are standing in the rain in Florida today for four hours waiting to vote. Because thousands stood in the driving rain in Milwaukee to hear John Kerry. Because there are one million volunteers working tomorrow. Because as Zogby said, there are NO undecideds among young voters, which indicates they are all going to vote.

In fact, by the time all the polls open in Florida tomorrow, two million people in that state will have already voted. The total Florida vote in 2000 was six million. Early voting virtually everywhere trends to Kerry, though the margin varies from a little to a lot.

In Ohio, two federal judges have banned vote challengers from polling places, in a significant victory if it stands up to a GOPer appeal today. Gallup is giving Ohio to Kerry, though their poll today shows Ohio trending back to Bush. It's going to be trench warfare in Ohio, PA, Florida, the cities of Wisconsin, and in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Bloggers are indicating a little nervousness, with the available numbers stubbornly refusing to show big trends. Everyone is at least a little bothered by uncertainties over Ohio, PA, Iowa, Wisconsin especially. But a lot of this is last minute jitters. Sugar-induced optimism has become "cautious optimism." Ain't no such thing, boys and girls. Victory is one day away.

Kerry is spending the day in the Midwest, which seems to indicate that the campaign figures it has a chance to take all those states, and win the whole thing there. Kerry appears with the Boss in Cleveland, and after the Boss plays in Wisconsin. He looks and sounds strong and confident. No matter what happens, we can all be proud of our candidate, the race that he's run, and his innovative and dedicated supporters everywhere.

Blood brothers in the stormy night
With a vow to defend:
No retreat, baby, no surrender

Nader
Is Nader still a factor? I doubt it. I don't see him getting more than .5% of the vote in any state. But he might be, so anyone considering voting for him should read the Nader entry in this blog:


No More Mister Nice Blog

He makes a good case that Nader hasn't done much except screw up an election for the past several decades, and that John Kerry has done more to shake up the rabid right and actually advance progressive causes than Nader.

Same goes for David Cobb and the Greens. I accidentally debated Cobb once on Kerry's behalf (I thought I was just going to be making a pre-Dem primary pitch) and Cobb distorted Kerry's record. Nader's ideas and the Greens ideas and activism make important contributions to political life. But let's get real about where they belong in this fight. At least for a couple of more days.

The Last October Surprise

Since October has only about another hour in it, at least in the east, this may be the last October Surprise: the last Gallup Poll until the election has the popular vote tied (Bush has been up all month) and the electoral vote victory goes to...Kerry.

This is the poll that 1. weighs towards Republicans, 2. weighs for a relatively low turnout, 3. has other flaws according to people better at math than me. So if this is what Gallup says....the real outlyer poll at the moment seems to be Newsweek's. Everything else points to VK Day Tuesday.

More more of 99 reasons to vote for Kerry

26. No draft.

27. Kerry will control the deficit so future generations don’t have to keep paying for Bush’s extravagant mistakes.

28. Bush has no chance of uniting America. Kerry does, and he wants to.

29. Kerry has the best record in Congress on the environment.

30. Even Queen Elizabeth is worried about global warming. Bush isn’t. Kerry will rejoin the world in dealing with it.

31. Kerry’s 20 years of foreign policy experience and knowledge of world leaders and complex issues.

32. Kerry tested under fire, not thousands of miles from harm making brave speeches.

33. Kerry understands the consequences of political decisions on men and women in the military, and on civilians in the war zone.

34. Kerry will end shameful treatment of veterans.

35. Kerry will take care of military families and return their dignity.

36. Kerry understands the need for skills of peace.

37. Kerry understands we need real homeland security, not self-serving p.r.

38. No more stupid color code alerts.

39. No more no bid contracts for Halliburton.

40. Kerry will level with the American people.

41. Kerry understands the dangers and will work to end the growing gap between rich and poor, by helping the middle class.

42. Kerry supports family values by valuing families. Americans shouldn’t be working all the time and living in tents, or putting every cent into housing and nothing in the refrigerator. Stop the insanity.

43. Respect for differences in one America.

Ohio

Ohio may or may not turn out to be the crucial state on Tuesday, but it does look like it's going to be the biggest battlefield. GOPers are engaging in voter suppression efforts ranging from manipulating the legal system (or trying to), to cutting phone lines for Kerry phonebanks, to false information in flyers and phone calls to prevent minority voters from voting.

The media is on the story in general, but often falls for the GOPer tales of illegal registrations as a scandal. The one case of somebody allegedly paid in crack for filling out registration forms with fake names has become the welfare mom of the campaign. The only problem is that this kind of registration fraud has no impact on election day, since there are no live voters to go vote---Mickey Mouse or any of the other fake names just aren't going to show up to vote. But suppressing actual votes with false challenges, malacious misinformation, and intimidation are direct attacks on this basic right of voting.

But this time the GOPers aren't dealing with the unprepared, and certainly not with wimps. Every Kerry rally ends with this:
Blood brothers in the stormy night with a vow to defend
No retreat, baby, no surrender

More of the 99 reasons to vote for Kerry

16. To get rid of Ashcroft and have a new attorney general who believes in justice and the Bill of Rights

17. to repeal noxious anti-American elements of the Patriot Act

18. To close the shameful Guantanamo prison

19. Up to four Supreme Court appointments that will safeguard womens rights and all our rights for the foreseeable future, not the Scalia and Thomas clones Bush wants to appoint.

20. Kerry will end dependence on foreign oil with sustainable and renewable energy that creates millions of new jobs.

21. Health care for every American child.

22. Kerry will work for a sane health care system for everyone.

23. Kerry will end the outsourcing tax incentive.

24. Kerry will bring honest science and honest policy based on it.

25. Federal funding for stem cell research.

NFL Sunday and Election Tuesday

The one sports guys will be talking about tomorrow is the Green Bay Packers over the Washington football team. Since FDR's first term, the incumbent or incumbent's party wins reelection when the Washington team wins its last home game before the election. Today was that game and Washington lost. Omen: Kerry.

Some may find the opposite symbolism in the fact that New England's 21 game winning streak---the longest in NFL history---ended today. Omen against Kerry? Maybe, but trust me, the practical effect is good. Because it was the Pittsburgh Steelers who won at home over New England, in the most significant Steelers victory in years. Which is going to make people very upbeat in Pittsburgh. If New England had won, some sourpusses might have taken it out on Kerry on Tuesday. But this victory restores the natural order: the Steelers win, and Pittsburgh votes Democrat.

V minus 1.5

Zogby Sunday night tracking polls have Kerry ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. New Mexico is tied, Bush ahead in Ohio and Colorado. But not by much.

The Osama tape has dropped out of the top stories rotation on CNN Endless News. All they're saying about it now is that officials say there is no new attack warning.

On the ground for Kerry everyone is reporting passion, commitment and optimism. My own calls to people in Fla, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. are also inspiring: many people are volunteering, though many people are working hard just to get by, so they have no time, but they are still doing what they can, and many have already voted. Cousin Lemuel in Canada has helped register 10,000 voters and will be among those taking eligible voters to Michigan on Tuesday.

Another volunteer reports from E. Tampa, which is 90% African American. He got 879 voters to the early voting polls yesterday, who waited five hours to vote. They were harrassed and delayed in various ways, but with the help of volunteers they stayed until they voted. One was 90 years old. This is what will win Florida---the absolute determination of African American voters to make sure this time their votes count, and their votes are counted.

now hitting the blogs, soon to hit the TV news, a Newsweek story on the stands tomorrow indicating that Colin Powell believes the insurgents are winning in Iraq.

MSNBC - Hell to Pay

Hard to tell what gets through the noise, but Powell is still a name that means something with independents and moderate GOPers. It could get Iraq back at the top of the news, except of course on Fox which continues to try to whip up panic over the Osama tape.
It's one way Fox has for obscuring the fact that Bush has lost 7 points in its poll in the past two weeks.

V Minus 2

To be fair, Newsweek and ABC are saying the last minute tilt is towards Bush. Josh Marshall thinks the media is being gamed again by the Rove machine, which did precisely the same thing in 2000, when polls showed Bush ahead by several points (as many as 12). We haven't seen much evidence of this tilt. Most of the national tracking polls have moved only slightly, and usually in Kerry's direction. The Osama effect seems to be subtle if even present. As of today, Kerry maintains a one point lead in the Washington Post poll, has moved up to a 2 pt lead in Fox, and is tied in Zogby and the Fox three-way.

If you go with the theory that Bush has to be over 50 percent at this point, he's toast. If you believe that turnout will determine the election, especially by new voters, ditto. And if you look at state polls, the same. Here's another indication quoted by Electablog though not sourced:
37% of Kerry voters said this is the most important election of their lifetime, while only 27% of Bush supporter said the same.

There is a new Ohio poll out showing a tie. Michael Moore has organized some 1200 videographers to tape at polling places in Ohio, and an effort to do the same in Wisconsin is being mounted. These two states along with Florida seem the prime but not the only targets for GOPer voter suppression and intimidation, including challenges.

The final tally on newspaper endorsements show 42 papers that endorsed Bush in 2000 have switched to endorsing Kerry, while 15 went neutral. Only 6 switched from Gore to Bush.

Happy Halloween (or in Lake Woebegon, where fundamentalist protestors got the name changed, Happy Fall Festival. Garrison says the spirit of Halloween is that it's better for good people to dress up and pretend to be evil, than evil people to dress up and pretend to be good.)

The official AmericanSamizat Halloween chant of 2004 (picked up from somewhere on the blogosphere):
Bush is scary
Vote for Kerry