Testimony

I've quoted and sourced the political blog called The Field many times here. It's a relatively new one, which I've watched grow, due to the perspicacity of its main (and until recently, only) blogger, Al Giordano. The Field is a outgrowth of the organization Rural Votes, directed by Deb Kozikowski, who also happens to be a Democratic super-delegate, who says she's uncommitted.

Al posted an unusual offer: readers could try to persuade her which way to vote by their comments. Since Al (a former Edwards backer) has become an Obama advocate, and that fact has also drawn Obama people to this site, most of the comments were expected to make the case for Obama. Which they do.

Though many make crisp and cogent arguments for Obama, the personal testimonies are the most moving--and you will sense a theme right away. It isn't a new theme, but these are more real stories. (I've edited some slightly.)

From "Laura":
For many years and many elections, I have been unable to discuss politics with my mother and my step-father. They voted for G.W. Bush twice and supported the war. My step-father, a Vietnam vet, detested Kerry and believed all the swift boating tales. We finally agreed to never talk about politics.

Well, a few months ago, I visited them. My step-dad brought up Obama and told he liked what Obama had to say. I agreed, we spoke a little and then moved on. I figured he was just trying to make me feel good.

A couple of weeks later, I visited again. This time, both my mom and my step-dad sat down on their Florida porch and proceeded to tell me why they liked Obama and why they were going to vote for him over McCain. They are tired of the war, tired of the economic situation, and they were inspired by Obama. My mother, 68 years old, looked at me with the dreamy eyes of a teenager and compared Obama to JFK. They both said they would reluctantly vote for McCain if Obama failed to get the nomination.

My step-dad has since been diagnosed with bone marrow cancer. This may be his last election and he is devoted to Obama because he believes that Obama cares about people like him.

My son, who turns 18 in May, is interested in politics for the first time in his life. As a school assignment, I had him watch Obama’s speech on race and discuss it with me. My husband and I have 4 adopted children, and my son was adopted from foster care at the age of 4. Our youngest daughter is biracial. My son, in spite of learning disabilities, was able to understand and apply what Obama said to his life and to his sister’s future. My youngest, who is 7, lies her hand on my computer screen next to pictures of Obama and is amazed that he looks like her.

From "Walker":

I’m 19 years old, my best friend is 18. We’ve never voted in a presidential election. Both of us hope that our first presidential vote will be for Obama. I can’t wait to cast my (mail-in) ballot for Obama in my home state of Oregon. But hoping isn’t all Obama supporters do, despite what the critics may tell you. Combined, my friend and I have canvassed in the following states: Nevada, Colorado, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Texas, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Indiana. And many more states have received calls from my friend and I. And you can bet I’ll be workin’ in Oregon once I’m back from school. But that’s not even the most amazing part... No, the most incredible part of all of this is that my story isn’t even unique.

From Nate:

I a gay man originally from Dallas, Texas who was raised in a Christian fundamentalist household. I’ve always been at odds with my family’s political views, but this year, we’ve chosen the same candidate–Barack Obama. The country is fed up with the war, the healthcare crisis, rising energy costs, and the strained economy. It wants a choice–a real choice–to break out of the pattern and start out on a new foot with someone who is bold enough to bring new people and new ideas to the table... live in Chicago a few blocks from where the Obamas lived. I voted for him in 2002, and he’s never disappointed me. As a supporter, I’ve been able to hold my head high because of the integrity with which he runs his campaign and the courage he has shown in tackling old problems with innovative, and sometimes unpopular, approaches.

TR:
I am a 47 yr oid white woman (not that it matters) who has never donated to a campaign in my life until now. I have contributed to Barack for the last 4 months... have 2 children (adults now) 24 and 20 and even they are involved. I never ever thought they would be involved or even care. They went to see him in CT and stood in line with thousands of people. I was shocked, they actuaklly went and waited in line for hours to see a political figure? YES they did and they are actually excited. There is no way I even though they would vote in 2008 let a lone go to a rally to see someone speak... Sen Obama is bringing a whole new generation into politics early. These yuoung people are the future and the fact that they are involved at such a young age really is HUGE!!!!

Eileen:

I’m 41, Chinese-American, female, $40K earner, and I virtually gave up on politics in the early 90s. I never contributed to a political campaign, almost stopped voting, and thought I would never see a candidate who really represented my interests could gain the highest elected office. Then I read Barack Obama’s book, and I have followed with passionate interest ever since. I have been actively participating and also sent him $ after Super Tuesday and after the speech on race.

"Palgirl 2008"
I am an Independent who lives in the most republican of states(Utah). I was indifferent to this election, the choice between Hillary( who was the “inevitable” candidate), and any republican just didn’t excite me or fill me with any kind of enthusiasm. Hillary represented the worse of the Democratic party, a party that lost it’s identity, it’s direction, and it’s values.I felt that they forgot about me, an Independent in Utah, who loathed the GOP tactics, but still had some of the conservative ideas.On a cold January night, I woke up from my indifference, when a skinny kid with a funny name delivered a victory speech that spoke to me, the independent in a red state, a speech that told me that there is a better way, a better choice…and that there is so much hope for this country.I volunteered for the Obama campaign, I felt included in the process, I felt part of a movement for the first time in a very very long time.Obama has ideas, ideals, he is fresh, he is genuine, he is our chance to a fresh start from the politics of the 90s, and the politics of devisions.besides…he is likable, funny, and too damn smart ….what is wrong with having a president like that???

"Lynn":
I am from Bloomington, Indiana. I work at Indiana University. I’ve been married to Mike for 16 years. He’s a union carpenter who remodels and builds Kroger stores in Indiana and surrounding states. We have 2 sons who will be going to college in 4 and 5 years. We are trying to sell our small home to buy one with less stairs and an extra room for my Mom, who was recently injured and widowed. I grew up in a multi-racial neighborhood in Glen Park, Gary, IN. I am writing (this is like sending a message in a bottle), to ask you to support Barack Obama.
To be honest, prior to this primary I always felt my vote didn’t count. The powers that be would select someone and there was nothing I could do about it. I’d only voted a couple of times. This year, I actually intend to vote and have contributed $65 to Barack Obama’s campaign. Not only that - I visit the news websites, watch the news, watch the debates, etc, because for once I feel as though my vote counts. We are a white middle-class family. I would like Barack Obama to be president because he represents me. I agree with his views on education (parents need to shut off the tv/video games and be in touch with their kids), foreign policy (build consensus, talk to other countries and restraint is sometimes powerful), economy (no tax breaks for companies who ship out jobs to cheaper labor or who hire workers who are not paying taxes and are not here legally). I could go on, but to save you I won’t.
I hope that you will cast your vote for Barack Obama.

Michele:
I am an Obama supporter, so of course, I would like you to endorse him. I am not going to write a lengthy post with various reasons why.
Only one….Obama has somehow managed to motivate my former Republican (and somewhat bigoted), rural PA parents to register as Democrats so they can vote for him. If he can do that, he has the opportunity to be a truly great president and unite this country.

Byron:
As a working class 55 year old white male with a long held cynicism about politicians and their motives I have found myself uncharacteristically drawn into Senator Obama’s campaign. His intelligence and insight, his vision of inclusion and communal responsibility are a welcome breath of fresh air in the national political conversation and I see that I am in good and large company in feeling this way. He is the first candidate for any office to whom I have contributed money and the first candidate in whose campaign I have ever volunteered. I went to PA from NY to register new voters and will return in the next few weeks to help get the vote out.A telling sign of his ability to appeal to Americans across many divides is illustrated in my own family where my 80 year old father who has voted Republican for at least the last 45 years will vote for Barack in Novermber and my 25 year old son and his wife, when I mentioned that I had done phone-banking for the Obama campaign told me that they had also attended an Obama phone-banking party in NJ where they live. A first for them as well as for me.I think we all see an opportunity to start to get things back on track and rebuild an America we can really be proud of.

Yvonne:

I am a 57 year old, Asian American, mother of 4, grandmother of five. I am a professional, and have volunteered in my community in non-profits for many years. I was raised in Germany, Michigan, and CA, as an Army brat. As an adult I have lived on a ranch and small communities in WA State and AK. I am revealing this information, so you know that I have some real world experience.
Originally I was planning on voting for Hillary, because this Barack Candidate was a new fella, I never heard of. But to do my conscience justice, and my vote, I researched his background. I have wholeheartedly cast my vote for him due to his intellect, experience, understanding, wisdom, credibility, ability, personality, consistency, capability, and leadership. I am glad he has decided to run for President this election. Not only for our country, but for the world...

"Seth" makes a political point but one that the pundits rarely mention:

Just imagine for a moment Barrack’s first trip through the middle east and Africa. Imagine him speaking in Paris and in Jakarta. Imagine how our image as a nation in the eyes of the world - and in our own eyes - will change.

Those are some of the comments that got to me before my eyes glazed over--there were over 200. They are remarkable, but characteristic--which is in itself most remarkable. That said, I don't think (judged by one of her comments) this particular super-delegate is impressed by them. I hope this doesn't turn out to be a gimmick to increase traffic, but her one substantive comment (two others were pro forma) sounded to me like she didn't understand the significance of these kinds of stories, or their importance for the future.

Slowly...

Slowly maybe, but inexorably, the nomination of Barack Obama gets closer and closer. Super-delegates keep moving his way, political leaders hint that it's going to happen. Even Hillary seems to be slowing (and very tired.) (Though maybe not Bill.) And the money problem. Her campaign claims a $20 million March, though it's uncertain how much of that is for the primaries, but the Obama campaign claims $40 million.

Another sign of this: last week there was talk that if Clinton won PA and then Indiana on May 6, she would still be viable. More recently, the CW has returned to saying she has to win PA BIG (some say 10, some say 20 points) and that she has to win North Carolina on May 6, which is polling double-digit for Obama. That seems real unlikely.

For Clinton, there's not much left in the kitchen sink, and none of it has worked all that well anyway. Even the continuing noise over Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama is not helping the Clintons--and based on Kid Oakland's report from CA, especially with Latinos. And it keeps giving Richardson a platform. The letter from big money Clinton supporters threatening Nancy Pelosi has led instead to a flood of contributions to the Democratic congressional campaign committee, as a muscular show of support for her.

So people are starting to look at Obama in a different way. And they're looking ahead. Here's a very interesting piece that hasn't gotten much attention, about how the Obama campaign is thinking about the general election campaign. On Thursday, Tim Russert was all over MSNBC with his maps and magic markers talking about which states are in play according to whether Obama or Clinton is the candidate. Catherine Cryer was the only voice I heard that challenged his basic assumptions--and this Politico piece suggests why that map may be obsolete: the Obama coalition.

I sympathize to some degree with people like Chris Matthews who see everything through the lenses of their youth. But they, and those who live by the cliches of yesteryear, may well be in for some surprises. And if they'll really take a look at their assumptions, those surprises may start to become evident in Pennsylvania. Specifically, in the heart of Pennsylvania.

But maybe I should wait until my central PA expert gets back from fishing to say much more.

Tuesday into Wednesday Headlines

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that former Member of the House of Representatives Lee Hamilton is endorsing Barack Obama. The Times calls him "one of the Democratic Party's leading foreign affairs experts," who will bolster Obama's national security credentials. Hamilton was the co-chair of both the 9/11 Commission and the Iraq Study Group.

Plus Hamilton was a Member of Congress from Indiana, where the May 4 primary may be the decisive contest for the Democratic nomination if Obama wins it. A Survey USA poll announced Tuesday gives Clinton a 52% to 43% lead there, but most observers believe the state could go either way. Update: Associated Press now has the Hamilton endorsement story, too, and mentions that Hamilton is not a super-delegate.

SUSA's latest Pennsylvania poll shows that Clinton's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 12. Obama is picking up strength among men. SUSA has been the most reliable poll in the primaries, but Rasmussen is not far behind--and their new PA poll has Clinton up by just 5 points.

There was talk Tuesday but no firm figures on March fundraising. Time is reporting that a Clintonites "hinted" their March take will approach $20 million, while an Obama campaign official said they brought in more than $30 million, but they're still counting it up (there was a chance to have "dinner with Barack" with contributions ending March 31.) The rest of the story was about the Clinton campaign's unusually high level of debt.

Obama also got a letter of support signed by some 70 Jewish professionals in Pennsylvania, led by Josh Shapiro, deputy speaker of the PA House.

Senate Leader Harry Reid joined party chair Howard Dean in calling for the Democrats to settle on a candidate no later than July 1. , Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is less specific, saying only that it should be settled "a long time before" the convention in August.

Astute political blogger Kid Oakland came away from the California state convention this weekend with some interesting observations, mostly conciliatory towards Clinton backers (he's an Obama activist) but he also reports this from the Latino caucus:

Finally, legendary Latino activist Luis Valdez got up to make an impromptu speech. He talked about hope and the need for change. He talked about the days of Cesar Chavez. He talked about his perception that James Carville had singled out Bill Richardson as a Latino in calling him a "Judas" and the room erupted in agreement. Valdez concluded with this thought, (I'm paraphrasing here): "Whomever you support...Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama...I want you to realize that our community has to rally behind the winner. We need to come together behind a winner. Barack Obama is a winner."

It was an unreported moment at the convention that every one who witnessed it later agreed was very significant. That speech made ripples whether one agreed with it or not."

This is very interesting, not only for its bolstering of the idea of inexorable movement towards Obama as the nominee (and it was widely reported Tuesday that a Missouri Rep and Clinton backer told Canadian public radio that he would be "stunned" if Barack Obama is not elected as the next President) but that it reveals a specific resentment towards how a Clinton activist attacked--and continues to attack--the only Latino governor in the U.S.

Stuff That Won't Happen

1. Big Al. Starting with Joe Klein in Time and continuing Sunday on 60 Minutes and Monday on Keith, the latest speculation that Al Gore will be called upon to a) be the broker, or party elder, who will go to the candidates and get them to settle the nomination, or b) to be the candidate for President when the convention is deadlocked.

Neither of those things are going to happen. Gore is not going to be the Democratic candidate this year. Barack Obama is. Gore does not want to be the candidate who marches in at the last moment, without getting a single vote from actual voters. Plus, by now he's seen what getting back into electoral politics has done to Bill Clinton's reputation and his future ability to transcend political allegiances in his foundation work. Gore knows that his election would by no means be a sure thing. Plus, as much as I admire him, he does not have the natural touch that Obama has. Obama connects in ways Gore doesn't, not even now. Sure, if for some unforeseeable reason, the convention goes to its 20th ballot without a nominee, and everybody is crying out for another candidate to resolve it, then maybe. But it's a very remote possibility, and certainly not a free ticket to the presidency.

Gore is also unlikely to be the broker who goes to Hillary and tells her it's over. I don't think there's much love lost between them, and the Democrats are probably not so tone deaf as to send a man to tell Hillary she's done. If it comes to a moment like this, it will more likely be Nancy Pelosi--perhaps in the company of several other prominent Democratic women--who takes on this job.

2. Credentials fight: There are enough senior Democrats around who remember some fractious credentials fights at previous conventions, and so the party is going to settle outstanding problems before the convention, namely the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan. Formulas are being developed right now in both states, and although neither campaign is ready to accept them, the next few contests will determine that one or both of them will.

If Obama does well in PA, wins North Carolina big and especially if he wins Indiana, his campaign will probably accept almost any formula, because his delegate and popular vote leads will be untouchable, no matter how many delegates Clinton gets out of the deal. (Although I did hear one lone voice say that party rules stipulate that seating these delegates cannot affect the outcome of the nomination. In other words, a 50-50 split is all that's permissible. ) If Obama accepts it and Clinton does not, it's likely that enough super-delegates will pledge to Obama to give him the nomination, which will mean that Hillary couldn't win a credentials fight either in the committee or on the convention floor.

This possibility, like the Gore scenario, becomes a live one only if Clinton overperforms spectacularly, and/or Obama underperforms disastrously in April and May. If that occurs, a lot of other stuff that's unlikely to happen also becomes possible.

PA, Delegates, Endgames

PA: I did a visual summary of the first few days of Obama's tour from western to central PA at Dreaming Up Daily. For those more verbally inclined, besides the links there, an account by a freelance reporter, and a Washington Post story that emphasizes the Obama-Casey double act. It begins: "One hopes that Ted Kennedy isn't the jealous type, because it looks as though Barack Obama has a new best friend: Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania."

Along the lines of my post on the subject, but even stronger on the ultimate effect of Casey's endorsement, there's this analysis on Real Clear Politics. The authors acknowledge that it doesn't mean Obama will now win PA, nor does Casey bring with him the ground organization Rendell supplies to Clinton, ..."But what Casey's endorsement might mean trumps mere political resources like organization and money. It might mean the ballgame-the quickened end of the Democratic primary battle and the ultimate nomination of Barack Obama."

Because (as I wrote the other day) Casey has strength among so-called Clinton voters in so-called Clinton areas of the state, he can help Obama cut down Clinton's popular vote margin. Casey's endorsement, they say, also helps liberate PA super-delegates who are leaning Obama's way. Their conclusion: "The take away point here is that the Casey endorsement may be a game-ender, a final speed bump for Clinton that blocks any remaining viable path to the nomination. She needs to win Pennsylvania big, and Casey's presence in the race makes it hard for her to do that. Clinton probably still wins the state-but not by enough to allow her to continue the race past Pennsylvania."

Apart for today's prize for the most cliches in a sentence, that summary is pretty devastating.

The not-quite-final figures for new registrations in PA came out today, and they show big numbers on the final day of registration: at least 33,281 new Democratic registrations and 45,977 party changes to the Democratic Party, with possibly more to come in via slow mail. Both Obama and Clinton campaigns were signing up new voters, so it isn't necessarily a big gain for Obama--but it might be. It's certainly a boon for Democrats, who now have the most registered voters for a single party anyone there remembers--about a million more than Republicans.

On the delegate front, Obama got the endorsement of super-delegate and U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, as expected on Monday. While the final delegate count from Texas is less than certain, the AP projects that Obama picked up 7 of the 9 outstanding delegates, to win the state by 5 delegates. Also, Mississippi recalculated their primary results, which resulting in Obama gaining one delegate and Clinton losing one.

Not bad for a day when there are no contests, but some believe the super-delegate flow is just beginning. Picking up where the W.S. Journal and other outlets left off yesterday, Politico outlined how Democrats are likely to make Obama the winner by June, in Monday's most referenced piece on the cable gabfests. With nothing as formal as a meeting or a mini-convention, they say, super-delegates are heading towards putting Obama over the top. But the restlessness of party leaders has become unmistakable in recent days. So, too, has been the premise — sometimes unstated, sometimes explicit — that it is Clinton’s ambitions rather than Obama’s that would have to yield in the name of party unification. The most widely quoted sentences in the piece: Describing the mood in Washington, a top Democratic strategist who supports Clinton said: “There’s a little bit of a deathwatch going on. Instead of, ‘Who’s going to win?’ the chatter is, ‘How’s it going to unfold?’” The strategist added: “There is general panic among Democrats. The big question is: Does she walk to the door, or is she shown to the door?”

In this piece, and a similar one on ABC's The Note, practically every aggressive argument the Clintons advance--they'll fight to the convention, they'll take the Florida and Michigan delegate situation to the credentials committee--is working against them with super-delegates who don't want suicidal convention fights.

Super-delegates got more reason to be comfortable with the Obama choice in his fourth straight day of leading the Gallup tracking poll, and especially with this tidbit: asked which candidate has the best chance to win in November, 59% of Democrats surveyed by Gallup said Obama. Only 30% named Clinton.

However, there is some indication the Clintons may have some good news to tout. Although the stories of their deadbeat practices with small vendors was joined Monday by news that they hadn't paid their staff's medical insurance for months (though they claim it's paid up now), there is the possibility that they raised a competitive amount of money in March, perhaps more than the Obama campaign did. If so, that would be big news. I wouldn't bet on it, and the Obama campaign may be playing possum on this. But if Clinton did have a good month, the campaign will surely be bragging about it as soon as Tuesday.

A final note on the PA bus tour so far: a crowd of 4,000 in Allentown and of course the 22,000 at Penn State on a cold morning outdoors indicate that Obama is drawing well. But his informal stops are probably doing him even more good: people are getting to know him, and to see him interact with people. The media bobbleheads don't necessarily get it: I heard the "experts" on Hardball make fun of Obama's poor bowling score in Altoona (which I wrote about with photos at Dreaming Up Daily), and they counselled him to stay away from sports he doesn't excell in, as if "blue collar" people will judge him on his bowling ability. From the reporting done on scene, and from my own intuition and knowledge of western PA, I don't think they get it. Bowling these days is a family activity. Some people are serious, but some people are there for birthday parties, or dates, or just to have some fun. It sounded like with Obama there, everybody was having fun. That's (as the consultants say) my take away point.

Weekend Update

I'm going to write about Obama's bus tour of western PA (with photos) over at Dreaming Up Daily later, so I'll just deal with "other news" here. Except to note that Obama drew some 22,000 for a rally at Penn State, and filled the hall in Harrisburg with 2,000 for a town meeting. We saw the phenomenon of big crowds in Ohio and Texas that didn't translate into popular vote wins, but they did indicate he was going to do well.

As for Texas, stalwart Obama folks withstood punishing challenges at district conventions by Hillaryites this weekend to provide Obama with an overall delegate win. When it finally becomes official, Obama will have won the delegate contest in Texas. The question left at the moment is how many delegates will be added to his totals.

He'll be adding one more on Monday, when it's expected that Obama will be endorsed by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. It's also being reported that all the North Carolina Members of Congress will endorse Obama before that state's May primary. Needless to say, those are all also super-delegates.

Sunday brought Obama's third successive day of leading the Gallup tracking poll nationally beyond the margin of error, and by the most he's ever led: a full ten points. At 52% to 42%, it's also three days straight that he's been above the 50% threshold.

Frank Rich's Sunday column was a devastating critique of Hillary's snipergate. And Jed Report provides nostalgic videos of other candidates who, like Hillary, vowed to stay in the race through the convention--like Mitt Romney, John Edwards, Mike Huckabee...in a diary called "A leading indicator of a doomed candidacy."

Another Sunday story was about the deadbeat Hillary campaign with months of unpaid debts owed to small vendors. This is the last day of March, so we'll soon be hearing how much each campaign took in for the month.