Not Looking Good

 After winning five straight at home, the Golden State Warriors lost three straight on the road, the last two by double digits.  The desperation to win on the road led Coach Kerr to try out a four guard lineup, which failed to generate enough offense to offset its defensive deficiencies.  Part of the reason he did this was perhaps that Jonathan Kuminga was suddenly unavailable due to a warmup injury.    

Now the Dubs come back home to face the Milwaukee Bucks, who bring the best winning percentage in the NBA and are hungry for another championship.  The Warriors will be without Kuminga and Anthony Lamb (because his allowed number of games is up until they sign him to the roster) as well as Andrew Wiggns and Gary Payton II.  Without JK and Lamb and with an overworked and hobbling Looney, the Warriors are nearly defenseless at the rim--except for Draymond, who might be taken away from other responsibilities.  This game will require major heroics.

Including this game, the Warriors have only seven games left at home. The next is with Phoenix (though Kevin Durant is injured.)  The next four are after a five game road trip, and the last one is against Oklahoma between a road game in Denver and road games at Sacramento and Portland.  This is not an easy schedule even in better times.

No one can predict where the Warriors will end up, given the big uncertainties of West teams.  As usual this time of year, every team's fate hinges on injuries (though teams have been winning without key players somehow) and momentum (some of which the Clippers have regained.)  But it's not looking good for Golden State.  It seems the best they can hope for is a low seed which eliminates home court throughout the playoffs.  This is not good news for one of the NBA's worst road teams.

This year is looking like it's fated.  Klay Thompson and Steph Curry are having career years, as is Draymond, and Jonathan Kuminga is emerging in a big way, there's no obvious bad player, and still the Warriors are not only losing but being humiliated.  Management decisions backfiring as they haven't before, injuries at crucial times, a starter's extended and indefinite absence, and who knows what else is going on with this team.  There have been too many resets, too many declarations that they know what's wrong and it's time to fix it, followed by too many badly played games with the same absence of fundamentals.  Is it really just a matter of concentration and effort?  A team that proves it is capable of superior defense and smart offense at home, looks incapable of consistency of either on the road--something weird about that, at least to someone who isn't playing the game.   But once again it's not over yet and there may be thrills ahead.

Stretch

 Downs and ups.  Ups and downs.  ("He bounces it he bounces it he bounces it.")

The All-Star break was the time to renew and regroup and focus, everyone connected with the Golden State Warriors said.  Then their first game back in Los Angeles they looked lost, and they did lose, to the Lakers, without LeBron.  Things looked grim.  Steph Curry was out for another week or so, Andrew Wiggins was out indefinitely due to an undisclosed family crisis, so the Dubs went into a crucial 5 game home stand without two of their starters, and their veteran reserves--Andre Iguodala and Gary Payton II--injured and unavailable. 

But the new lineup suddenly jelled, Klay Thompson became the transcendent force that Steph had been, and they won all five, moving up several notches in the standings, with not only the playoffs but home court in sight.  And then Curry and Iguodala returned!

And they lost to the LeBronless Lakers again, again in Los Angeles.  And lost Anthony Lamb, a key player in the streak, for this crucial road trip, before they return to face the top teams of the West and the East. (They are expected to sign him for the last roster spot, however.)

The good news, everyone said, was that Curry looked great in his first game back.  Curry always looks great in his first game back, and then has a less great game or two before he attains consistency.  There is the further question of whether the chemistry attained in the home stand can be revived--in other words, the Warriors can win without him, but can they win with him?  That seems a heretical question, or at least a dumb one.  But maybe reestablishing that chemistry isn't automatic.  Maybe a key to their streak was Kuminga, Poole and DiVincenzo starting and getting heavy minutes.

Statistically the bigger problem is that the Warriors have a top winning record at home, and a bottom scraping record on the road--and of their remaining games, only six are at home (including the division leaders Denver and the Bucks) and eleven on the road.  Is this in fact a bigger problem?  Only if the team psyches itself out.  A team with the Warriors' talent pool and game-specific coaching that has that chemistry and flow--that defends, rebounds, and doesn't foul, and on offense takes care of the ball and moves it to the best shot on offense, is going to win anywhere.   

Even at this stage in the season, the division is dynamic.  The Clippers are in trouble if they don't right their ship; on the other hand, Phoenix is likely to win a higher percentage of games with Kevin Durant.  So nobody knows what can happen.  The Warriors might even sneak into the playoffs with a .500 percentage from the end of their recent home stand.  But every win in the regular season eases their tasks in the playoffs, should they get there.  Maybe it won't matter, but I can't help feeling this latest and last loss to the Lakers is going to hurt.

Anyway, the home stand was fun at least, even if things get tense from here on out.