The Deciding Game

 Sixth games are tricky.  One team is trying to end the series by winning it and getting some rest before the next round begins.  The other team is desperate to win it.

The seventh game is not tricky.  Both teams are desperate to win it.

What a difference the Warriors 6th game loss has made.  Media figures were predicting they would win another championship after their fifth game victory.  But the Warriors have been nothing if not inconsistent this year.  And it's not a good look.  Their championship teams won their deciding games.

Klay, J. Poole and Draymond had pretty bad games.  Sacramento coach Mike Brown came up with his own brilliant adjustment, which happened to be the same one that his former boss Golden State coach Kerr came up with in the third game: go small, but make sure your guards crash the boards.  The Warriors had no answers, nor could they match the Kings' energy.

So now the Kings have several advantages in the 7th game: it's a home game for them, and the older Warriors will be on short rest, only a day and a half from the end of the 6th game.  The Kings came up with a lineup strategy on offense that the Warriors couldn't stop.  On defense, they can chase Steph Curry and limit him to 30 points, and dare the others to beat them.  

After the fifth game, one SF Chronicle writer predicted that the remaining three games would all be won by the visiting team.  He's two-thirds right so far.  Another more recently framed the loss as that the Kings running the Warriors off the floor in game 6 (as they did in game 2)  suggesting a changing of the guard: youth over age (that is, mid 20s over mid 30s.)  Others seem to be agreeing today--the Kings are the team of destiny, sweeping away the old Warriors and then the old Lakers.  If the Warriors lose on Sunday, that will likely be the story line.  (Then we'll see if the Warriors' management buys it.)  If the Warriors win, well, forget they said it.  This really is a deciding game, in more ways than one.

Even if they win, the Warriors have proven themselves vulnerable, and the "changed team" is capable of reverting to the team that barely made the playoffs.  Had they won in 6, they would have been favorites against the Lakers (who did win in 6, decisively, against self-destructive Memphis.)  If the Warriors win in 7, probably not.

In any case, the California second round begins Tuesday, with either the Warriors or the Kings playing the Lakers.   

One to Go

 Before the Warriors got on the bus to Sacramento, coach Kerr insisted to media that they were a different team now.  After the fifth game victory in Sacramento, he said that we'd just witnessed the return of the championship Warriors.  

The Warriors experience was one edge over the Kings youthful athleticism.  Along with the tight, precise game they played, the Warriors had an array of heroes.  Steph Curry (31 points) and Klay Thompson (25) scored at key moments.  Draymond Green added his first 20 point game in the playoffs since 2019 to his defense and passing wizardry (again coming off the bench.)  Gary Payton II provided important minutes on both sides of the ball, and once again Andrew Wiggins was a rock, an anchor on both sides as well.  But the key to the game may well have once again been Kevon Looney, with his career high 22 rebounds, the only player but two in history to tool two 20 plus rebound games in the same playoff series.

Now the Warriors, riding high expectations once again, must put this away with a 6th game at home on Friday.  They found the formula. They know what to do now.  Klay Thompson doesn't have to become "6th Game Klay"--those outlandish performances usually came when the Dubs were behind in the series anyway.  Magic Johnson is on the record predicting certain victory.  But it will still take the intensity that won the past three games.

As the Warriors game ends, the Lakers take on Memphis, also leading the series 3-2.  If they both win, their matchup in the second round is set.  Everything is settled in the East now: Miami plays the Knicks, but the winner of the Boston-Philadelphia series will be the likely favorite to win the East.  

The California (and Others) Playoffs Continue

 Will Sacramento's star and best scorer De'Aaron Fox play tonight against Golden State?  On Monday the news was that he'd broken a bone in a finger on his shooting hand and was listed as doubtful.  Fox on the other hand said he was determined to play.  He said it again after practice on Tuesday, having been able to shoot and dribble.

Players however don't decide if they play, and there's been no word I've seen from his coach or the med staff, if they might be worried that re-injuring it could risk more serious damage (doctors that media members have consulted don't seem to think so.)  But while there's always the possibility that the finger swells up overnight, or the remote possibility that this is a mind game being played, I expect he will play.  It's the playoffs.  

How effective Fox can be in this fifth game is an important question. But it's not everything.  There's no reason under any circumstances for the Warriors to get overconfident.  The coaches will have to prepare for the Kings with and without Fox, and the players will have to execute the game plan.  The Dubs will still have an occasion to rise to.

And a lot of people will be watching.  The Warriors-Kings series has become the audience favorite of the first round.  This is the first Western Conference playoffs in which all four California teams were playing.  One of them (the Clippers) lost their series to the Phoenix Suns, and one more (either the Dubs or the Kings) is destined to be gone by the end of the first round.  The Lakers look like they have the number of the chaotic Grizzlies, a team as presently constituted that shouldn't even be allowed in the league, and so the Lakers are likely to win that series with their next game.  Then no matter what happens in San Francisco or Sacramento, there will be another California-on-California team round, as the winner of the Warriors series will almost certainly face the Lakers.

As a result of Tuesday games, Phoenix and Denver, both media favorites to win the West, will face off in the second round.  In the East, it does not look like one of the three strongest teams, the Bucks, are going to make it out of the first round.  That leaves Philadelphia, who swept their first round, and Boston--even though they're just up 3 games to 2 over Atlanta, it's hard to see them not winning the series.  The Knicks and the Heat also look likely to survive the first round.  

It may not count as much of a perspective on the Warriors series, but it is is worth noting that the first round--usually the easiest for the top teams--has only one sweep, and that one in the East.       

That Championship Something

 Is the team healthy?  Check.  Did it have at least some momentum at the end of the regular season? Check.  Does it have playoff pedigree?  Double check.

Now it only takes heroic team play, individual playmaking in the context of the game, energy, focus, endurance, adjustments, strength of will, and luck.  That championship something.

On Sunday the Warriors had it all--well, almost all.  I mentioned earlier that to win this series might take finding an adjustment against this specific team.  In game 3 they found it with the three guard, one big lineup to start. According to coach Kerr, this creates the space they need to move the ball around without risking so many turnovers. In game 4, Draymond volunteered to come off the bench so they could try it again.  He spelled Looney as the big in the first half.

But further adjustments were needed, especially on defense.  Kerr went back to the two-bigs lineup in the second half, and put Draymond on the King's best shooter.  The Warriors got back to team rebounding.  The result was a dominant third quarter.  The Kings came back strong in the fourth but the Warriors held on, surviving turnovers and a time-out error, winning with lockdown defense.  And with luck, as former Warrior Harrison Barnes missed what would have been the winning shot.

You know who was due for a big game--and had one?  Klay Thompson.  But it wasn't one of his double-digit 3s or 40 plus point barrages.  It was the return of Two-Way Klay.  He scored 26 points, with baskets at crucial moments especially late in the game, but his defense was notably stellar.  

The bench did not contribute much and the fourth quarter was ragged, so this was not yet the complete game that the Warriors are capable of.  They'll probably need that in the fifth game, especially now that the Kings are rediscovering their 3 point scoring, and their sharpshooting rookie Murray finally found his shot.  

Now that these teams have taken each other's measure, I expect the rest of the games to be tight, coming down to a few plays at the end. Fifth games are called pivotal for more than the obvious math of them.  Winning the fifth in a tied series is usually a huge advantage.  But with the Warriors still dominant on their home court, they could still win this in seven.  If they steal the fifth game, maybe even in six.    With that championship something, including luck.