Depending on circumstances, there can be several crucial games for one team or the other in an NBA playoff series, especially the Finals. But particularly in a 2-2 series, the fifth game is nearly always decisive. The winner of the fifth game most often goes on to win the championship.
The Warriors and Celtics are tied 2-2. Each has won a home game and a game away. By winning the fourth game, the Warriors reestablished home court advantage: the 5th and (if needed) 7th game will be played on the Golden State court.
But Boston has established a pattern in the playoffs of alternating between wins and losses regardless of the court, and not losing two in a row. Since they won the first game of this series, they can win the championship without winning two games in a row.
A Finals series is often about game-to-game adjustments, which also factor in this series. Those adjustments, sometimes reflected in decisions during the game, depend on the coaches. So far Steve Kerr has been outcoached in the third game, arguably the first as well, but outcoached Boston in the fourth game decisively.
By the fifth game however, the teams and the coaches know a lot more about their opponent. We won’t know what they learned until it is reflected in game outcome. Sometimes an adjustment even this late is decisive. But the options are often more limited.
So what about this fifth game? Boston has been unable to defend Steph Curry for an entire game—it’s possible they will do something more radical to keep Curry from operating with the ball, and dare the rest of the Warriors to beat them. But even though Steph got the major praise for carrying the team to a fourth game victory—often said to be his best Finals game ever—there were other good signs for the Warriors.
Both Andrew Wiggins and J. Poole showed signs of figuring out the Boston defense. Wiggins was outstanding at rebounding, and Looney had another solid game. And in a very good sign, Klay Thompson played really good defense in the fourth quarter, and had the afterburners to make shots down the stretch. And Bjelica, one of the Warriors who hasn’t played much in the series, showed he can defend Boston's star Tatum.
Fan exuberance is one thing, but the Warriors can’t go into the fifth game taking for granted they will win because they are at home, or because Steph Curry is having a brilliant series. But apart from that, the Warriors have some momentum. Draymond Green is due to relax into a consistent game on both sides of the court. The Warriors who aren’t Steph—especially those who showed signs in the fourth game-- are ready to show their appreciation to him by being brilliant in game 5. The Warriors will have to win two games in a row at some point to win the series. This would be a good time to do it.
On the other side, Boston’s Jason Tatum and J. Brown are capable of breakout games, and have had them in the playoffs. They will likely be the keys for Boston in the fifth game. Tatum in particular will want to slap down the Steph as MVP narrative that continued in the days after game 4.
Another possible key: Boston’s center Robert Williams, coming back from injury and making a defensive difference, tweaked a knee and left the fourth game early. He may or may not play in the fifth game, and may or may not be effective. That could be huge for the Warriors getting to the basket.
There are any number of ways this game could go. Neither team will win the series outright with a victory in the fifth game, and these two teams in particular break more rules than they follow. But the loser will likely find a very hard road ahead.
