Finalities

It wasn't a devastating loss--it was just devastation.  In game 6, Klay Thompson was hot--he had 30 points by the third quarter--and the Warriors finally had the momentum to take the game and force a seventh.  Then incredibly he went down, with what turned out to be a serious knee injury.

Even then, Steph Curry--now the absolute focus of two and usually three defenders-- could have given Golden State the lead and possibly the win with a three point attempt towards the end of the game.  That he didn't make the shot will provide more ammunition for those commentators who dispute his greatness.  But in the long run it was merciful.  It saved the devastated Warriors from a long and certain defeat in game 7.

It is predicted that Klay Thompson will not play basketball again until early next spring.  The Warriors might have survived as an elite team without KD, because they were an elite team before he came.  But they cannot reach those heights without Klay Thompson.

The Warriors will have an interesting off-season, but their choices are not good.  They may lose KD or Thompson or both to free agency, and start to scramble for players to rebuild a team.  It seems likely however that they will sign Thompson and it seems more likely than it did a month ago that they will sign KD.  In which case they will be tying up a lot of money for two players who will not play for most if not all of next season, limiting their ability to pay for replacements. And this will be their first season in a new, larger arena, in the city of San Francisco.

Steve Kerr jokingly wondered if the Warriors could just take the next season off, but there's some rueful truth there. The Warriors have played more games than any other team over the past five seasons. Someone figured that they played the equivalent of six and a half seasons in those five years.  Analysts will gab all summer about whether the wear and tear of five seasons in a row with long playoff runs contributed to these devastating injuries.  Missing the playoffs next year may be a mercy to the players still standing.

This was to be the season of seasons, with a starting roster of five All-Stars.  Those five didn't play together at all in the Finals, and all five were healthy enough to play together for all of 12 minutes since the first round.  They ended their playoffs with two of the five on the floor--possibly the only two who will be in the starting lineup to begin next season, and that's if the Warriors keep their sanity and resist the media analysts' advice to trade Draymond.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors had the highest shooting percentage in the playoffs, and the highest 3 point shot percentage.  Even after losing two star starters, they came within a missed three-pointer of taking the Finals to the seventh game.  They went down a champion.

Update: The Lakers big trade is only the beginning of teams strengthening themselves.  Right now I feel some relief that I will not be tempted to listen to those basketball commentators, especially the most annoying.  What I mostly feel is that I hope the Warriors don't make the playoffs next year.  This has been an ugly, distracted year that might have been worth it for a championship, but now I'm thinking maybe not.  That's not the most important thing.  So I renew my wish that instead we get a season in which once again the Warriors play with joy.

KD

And then the story changed.  The ultimate outcome of the finals may not, nor the aftermath of the season.  But for now, the 12 minutes that Kevin Durant played in game 5 on Monday have changed everything else--for the Finals, for the Warriors, for the NBA.

It was a game time decision that Durant start the game, and he looked his brilliant self, contributing 11 points.  But then incredibly he sustained another injury, this one even more serious, and potentially one of the most serious injuries a basketball player can suffer.  An MRI will show the extent of his Achilles tendon injury, but a late report says that the Warriors fear it is the worst: a tear.  If that is confirmed, it is unlikely KD will play at all next season.  It is an injury that has ended careers.

When he was hurt and had to go back to the locker room, some in the Toronto crowd cheered.  Steph Curry literally left the game to go back with Durant.

The Warriors were ahead and increased their lead, but the Raptors kept coming, and had a six point lead with 3 minutes to play.  Curry and Klay Thompson hit 3s, and the defense in the last minute denied Toronto from winning the game and the championship at least 3 times.  The Warriors won by 1 point, 106-105.

Update: This is the best account of the game I've seen so far.

Now the Warriors return to Oracle Arena for game 6.  Their place in history is already unassailable, but they'd prefer to not host the Raptors' championship ceremony as the last moment at Oracle. In any case, they will at least get a chance for a properly raucous farewell to Oakland.  As for the game, the math doesn't changed.  Durant's 11 points were crucial, as were Boogie Cousins's resurgent 14.  Those 11 points will have to come from somewhere.

But something beyond the numbers changed.  The Warriors have the inspiration (win it for K) and the anger (that applause in TO.)  The Oracle fans will be mightily aroused, and after years of mixed emotions, KD will be a hero to Warrior fans.  Forever.

Fans along with everyone else know that when it came time to make the decision for game 5, KD could have said no.  He could have played it safe for his own career, and gone into free agency as the player every team wants to have.

But he didn't.  That alone is the kind of inspiration that can change a series.  It will certainly change game 6.  Especially as all of this--including the support of fans, his teammates and the Warriors organization--may mean KD stays a Warrior.

The story has changed, and if the Warriors lose, it will more clearly be because KD is not playing, and the Raptors championship will always have that asterisk.  If the Warriors win game 6, and then game 7, it will be because they are inspired to new heights to win it for KD.

Finality

When injured Klay Thompson was not in the lineup for the third game of the NBA finals, the Warriors needed a career game from Steph Curry and a return to All Star form by Boogie Cousins.  Curry had that career game offensively, scoring 47, but Cousins scored fewer than 10.

To win the fourth game with Thompson back in the lineup, the Warriors needed the Splash Brothers to excel, which they did, with a total of 55 points, but once again they needed a 20 point game from Cousins, which didn't come close to happening.  Nobody else contributed much, except Kevon Looney who was unexpectedly back from his injury.

This is no criticism of Cousins, just back from a long injury, but that's the math.  Those points were needed.  But in the end, those two games were decided by Toronto's superior play both on defense and offense.  On both sides of the ball they found a formula, and they did to Golden State what they did to Milwaukee in the Eastern finals.  Once they find the formula, they are relentless.  In game 4, the Warriors did well for the first half, but were overwhelmed in a disastrous third quarter.

Now they are down 3-1, and only one team has come back from that to win the championship, and no team has won it after losing their first two games at home. I believe the Warriors will play their hearts out in Toronto on Monday, if only to ensure a proper farewell to their Oakland fans in the last game to be played there--win or lose, the 6th game of the Finals.  But being held to 92 points does not bode well for winning game 5, nor did their evident exhaustion.

And that's with or without Kevin Durant.  As of this moment it seems doubtful he will play, as he hasn't had a successful practice.  But even if he does play, a dominant performance or even the 25 points (with the Splash Brothers adding another 50 or so) and a return to defensive form that might make the difference, none of that is likely.  (Although it must be said, that a great player's first game back from an injury is sometimes very good, and it is after that adrenalin is gone that the second game back is lackluster.)

If the Warriors lose on Monday, game four will have been the last game a Warriors team plays at Oracle Arena.  And that's not the only finality.  It is possible that this will end as it seemed it probably would: with a team of 5 All-Stars triumphing to win the championship.  But it is very unlikely.  What is likely is that this is the end of this particular team.  Cousins almost certainly won't be back, and Durant only slightly less certainly will go elsewhere.  Andre may well retire, as well as Shaun Livingston.  It is even possible that Klay Thompson will go elsewhere, though that's unlikely.  But who knows what effect losing (or winning) the championship will have.

All of this demonstrates just how hard it is to repeat as champions.  So much has contributed to the situation the Warriors are now in, including the loss of concentration evident during the season.  Two more victories would have given the Dubs home court, and a first game victory could have changed things.

But to win a championship even once requires the luck to avoid key injuries at key times to your team, while hitting your opponents.  The Warriors have battled through injuries, but they've been lucky with the timing of them--until now.

Teams that repeatedly win championships often come to a surprising end.  I think especially of the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, who after championship seasons thought they were going to be invulnerable by adding two All-Stars to the roster, Karl Malone and Gary Payton.  They blundered through, and might have turned the corner until Malone got hurt in the playoffs, and then it was like a house of cards.

At this point, winning this championship would elevate this Warriors team to all-time heroic status.  But even if they lose, their accomplishments have been historic.  And win or lose, it would be great to see the Golden State Warriors back playing with joy.