Friday, July 07, 2023

The Challenge of the Dubs

 The Golden State Warriors may still have a few moves to make to augment their roster before the 2023-24 season starts.  But unless it includes a high stakes trade that no one expects, these moves are apt to be modest, especially when it comes to how much they can pay players.  Other teams aren't finished making their moves either, with the Damian Lillard trade the most conspicuous of the unresolved.  But it may not be too early to ask: can this be a championship team this season?

Moves made so far have suggested that bringing a selfless attitude crucial to a championship team has been a priority.  But winning usually comes down to four factors: talent, teamwork (or culture), health and luck (everything from the timing of who you play when to which way the ball bounces.)  Luck is mysterious, health can be encouraged but also depends on luck, so there's only so much a team can do about them.  That leaves teamwork, which the Dubs seem to be giving priority, and talent.  Defensive talent seems to have been improved.  Offensive talent is not so clear.

The essential question is: who not named Steph is going to score enough to win games?  Recall that even with all his deficiencies, J. Poole was good for 20 points a game, especially when he started.  And he played in every game.  Where are those points going to come from?

Chris Paul can score, but his role at this point is uncertain or unknown.  He may well play limited minutes.  He can also help others score.  Draymond said that Paul could "unlock" Jonathan Kaminga, but what the Dubs need most is for him to unlock Andrew Wiggins.  Wiggins can score from anywhere, but his short game can help free up Klay Thompson's outside shooting.  The second unit is at this point a mystery to everybody because it's going to be brand new, but scoring there is also necessary.  Recall that even with Poole's points, the Warriors barely scraped into the playoffs.  Winning regular season games is no longer a given, and certainly not an afterthought.

 How much the Dubs have improved their roster is an open question but even if you believe they did improve it, so did (it's very likely) their competitors in the West, and possibly then in the East.  In addition to the champion Nuggets, the Kings, Lakers and Suns all seem to have strengthened already strong teams.  The Clippers and the Mavericks may be better, and even the Spurs could stir. The competition is likely to be stronger.  However this coming year plays out,  it is unlikely to be an easy ride for the Warriors.   

Update 7/8: The signing of free agent Dario Saric is a coup for the Warriors in several ways: he's authentically tall, can shoot and defend, so he could fill the "big man" role the Warriors lacked; he's played with Chris Paul and they worked well together, and finally, he was probably the best available big at the price.  He seems also to be comfortable being a role player who doesn't always start, and is said to have high hoop intelligence.  All of that certainly changes the dynamic and sounds hopeful...Now it seems likely the Warriors will closely watch the younger players in summer league to decide who gets the last roster spot, and who gets the three two-way slots.