Doing the Math

The major advantage of winning the first game of a series, apart from setting a tone, is that the team that wins it doesn't have to win two games in a row to win the series.  Since the playoffs are characterized by game to game adjustments, this is significant--especially for the Lakers, who tend to be a team that shows up every other game.

If the Warriors had won the third game, that would have negated that advantage.  However the Lakers have now won the first and third games, so they are on track.  The Warriors on the other hand cannot win the series now without winning at least two games in a row.  They won three in a row against the Kings, but this series is a bigger challenge. 

So winning the fourth game is pretty important for the Warriors.  They may have to count on a alternate game letdown from the Lakers, though, because the Lakers won decisively on Saturday by playing their game--getting Anthony Davis inside, rebounding and especially by getting alot of points on foul shots, which had the added advantage of slowing the game to a standstill and preventing the Warriors from setting the pace.  

The foul shot disparity, very much the Lakers game, was accelerated by--according to Coach Kerr--the Warriors losing their poise.  That's discouraging, and not something you'd expect from a team so experienced in playoff basketball.  Steph Curry and the other Warriors had a bad to lukewarm shooting day as well, which may have added to their frustration.  The Lakers even shot a better percentage of threes.

If the Warriors can get a win in the fourth game, they've got the fifth game at home, and so are well-positioned to win a seven game series. Then it would be the Lakers who would have to win two in a row. If the Warriors don't win the fourth, then it's a much steeper climb.  They would have to win both their home games and still win the sixth in Los Angeles.  

None of us out here really know how hard it is to win an NBA playoff game.  Some years the Warriors seemed to fly through the playoffs (as a couple of Lakers teams did in the past), and it was all pretty joyful and fun.  But look around the playoffs and you don't see any teams like that this year.  Every team is struggling at times.  It looks like this year it will be the last team standing.

The Answer

 In the second game of the second round series with the Lakers, the Golden State Warriors had to solve some defensive problems and look for a more potent offensive strategy to shrink the huge gap in foul shots.  They did all of that and more, leading by 30 as the fourth quarter started, ending up with a 120-100 victory at home.

They were helped by the Lakers defensive strategy: stop Steph Curry and dare the others to beat them.  The others beat them, particularly Klay Thompson with eight 3-pointers in the three quarters he played, finishing with 30 points.  In order to keep two agile young players on Curry at all times, the Lakers apparently decided not to guard a few others at all, and so Draymond Green, for one, had clear lanes to the basket.  More points in the paint led to more foul calls, and the disparity indeed shrank.   At the same time, the Warriors again rained down 21 three pointers.

Curry had a judicious 20 points but lots of assists, as he functioned at a point guard.  The offense responded to a necessary lineup change, as Jaymichael Green started for the ailing Kevon Looney (who played well but sparingly.) He made shots, including 3s, that further opened things up.  Spacing the floor and running a crisp, fast offense allowed for a rebound advantage even with Looney on the bench.

Defensively, Draymond was hounding the Lakers' first game star Anthony Davis (known as A.D.) from the tipoff.  That, and Davis' own propensity to have a strong game followed by a weak one (some Lakers fans claim his initials actually stand for Alternate Days) meant he was not much of a factor on either end.

So now the series moves to Los Angeles.  Both teams should be hyped for this game on Saturday--and it wouldn't surprise me if the TV audience broke records for a playoff game, finals included.  This is the marquee game of the year.

The Lakers would be expected to make adjustments to counter the Warriors adjustments--and this game will demonstrate whether they can do so successfully.  Ordinarily the home team wins the third game, but the Warriors may be just as motivated, and they may have found a pace and a plan to keep winning, though not so handily.  They need to get one of these next two.  I don't think they will lose at home again this series. 

It's A Series

 The Warriors lost their first game of the second round to the Lakers at home.  That in itself is hardly fatal. But they had a game plan and successfully enacted it.  They rained down 21 three pointers.  Kevon Looney outdid himself (again) with 23 rebounds.  And they still lost.  Though they were within a missed 3 pointer of tying the game at the end, they had to mount a furious comeback from 10 or 12 points.  None of this is in itself encouraging.

If there was fatigue from the 7th game it showed up in defense.  They could not stop Anthony Davis.  The defensive effort, particularly from Draymond Green who lambasted himself for his game, should be better in the second game.  The game plan will likely change to find ways to get to the basket more.  That and some defensive adjustment must shrink the extreme difference between the vast number of foul shots taken by the Lakers and the few by the Dubs.  They were easily the difference in the score.

Certain Kings players made mild reference to the Warriors' age, which certain Dubs players blew up into an insult.  Led by Le Bron James, the Lakers seem to be trying to kill the Warriors with kindness, to flatter them to death.  Can the Warriors get a rise out of themselves, or will they be lulled by the crafty King James?

The second game is far from the decider, but winning this game at home is about as must-win as you can get before an elimination game.  It would be a pity to lose this series to the Lakers, who probably wouldn't beat Denver or Phoenix, whereas the Warriors could.  The matchup challenges the Warriors face against the Lakers have proven to be real.  They need to solve them right quick.  On the other hand, they were close enough in the first game that they need marginal rather than wholesale advantages.  They aren't going to stop Davis completely, and if they try, there's Le Bron James.  A more balanced scoring attack, slightly better defense, and cutting the foul shot disparity in half, would probably do it.

50 + D= Round 2

 

It was one for the ages--in more ways than one.

Stephan Curry scored fifty points, more than anyone else in NBA history in the 7th game of a playoff series.  That's not "more than anyone 35 or over."  Anyone. (I expect as he scored his last bucket--after he'd dribbled through the entire Kings team--he might have already known the previous record-holder was Kevin Durant with 48.)  He added 8 rebounds and had just one turnover.  It was not just a great individual performance, it was team leadership.  It meant victory and redemption.

Besides Curry's reported pre-game challenge to the Warriors and then his performance, or as part of it, there was strategy. The playoffs are often about making adjustments from game to game. When Mike Brown went small with his Sacramento Kings lineup in the sixth game and it worked, it was likely he would do it again in the seventh game.  So on Saturday Steve Kerr and the Warriors planned how to counter it, and how to run an offense against it.  The Warriors planned possessions and had plays to get points early. Early in the game Steph Curry began to see the lanes open to him due to the Kings lineup and how they were playing. "There's a reason I took 38 shots."   The Dubs took care of the ball, and with Draymond Green back in the starting lineup, they amped up their defense.  Defense leads to offense, and made shots leads to getting set on defense and forcing the Kings into the half court game.  

Then you sprinkle it all with magic dust in the form of Steph Curry and you have a gritty and finally dominant seventh game victory--the worst road team in the regular season to be in the playoffs, winning the first round with their two best games--virtual masterpieces--on the road.

 Another key was rebounding: Kevon Looney had his third game of the series with 20 or more rebounds: 21.  None of the other Warriors shot particularly well, but several of them got key baskets to keep the Kings on their heels.  Klay Thompson, who had several of those key baskets and played tough defense, said after the sixth game that all the Warriors had to do to win the 7th was to do the opposite of what they did in the 6th.  In fact the scores of the two games were almost mirror images, as the Warriors won 120-100.  The Warriors held fast in the first half, started pulling away in a dominant third quarter, and turned the fourth quarter into a rout, much as the Kings had done in game 6. 

With his flips and floaters added to his repertoire, Steph Curry looks like he's installed a magnet in the basket and he's sticking iron filings on the ball as he dribbles.  The basket swallows everything he sends its way.  It's been clear for a few years now that he's added strength to his game--he can muscle opponents out of his way to the basket, as well as making them dizzy with his dribbling and feints.  Recently he's become more consistent, in the 30 to 40 point range every game.  The lows faded along with the highs.  So maybe nobody was contemplating 50 points, but all that scoring and how he scored not only added up, it demoralized the Kings.  

As for the rest of the team, it begins to look more and more like the problems the Warriors have had this season are due to effort and concentration.  They are hard to maintain in an overlong NBA season, especially on the road.  They kept talking about playoff experience and championship DNA, of flipping the switch, but it was starting to sound like wishful thinking.  Now it doesn't.  The sixth game was a worrisome lapse, but they won four of their last five games, two at home and two on the road.  Look out, Lakers.

Despite losing three of their four regular season games against the Lakers, the Warriors have home court in the second round, because the Lakers are a play-in team.  It's a new series with a very different team.  The Lakers are bigger than the Kings, and Anthony Davis is a handful on both ends.  So can LeBron James be, though there are questions about how healthy he actually is.  The Dubs may change their rotations in response, perhaps giving more minutes to Kaminga and Moody.  First game is Tuesday evening at the Chase Center.