Sober Saturday


It's been a dizzying week for the Obama campaign, and out on the trail it remains so. But in news terms it seems to have slowed. It looks like all the major endorsements before Tsunami Tuesday have been made. (After a TV ad for Hillary with Robert Kennedy, Jr.'s voice endorsing her over images of his father, Ethel Kennedy announced her strong endorsement of Obama.) Word out today is that neither John Edwards or Al Gore is going to endorse before Tuesday, and Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have apparently indicated the same.


Plus the fast-rushing Obama momentum has been blunted for the moment by a reversal in the Gallup national tracking poll. Obama was down by only 3 points yesterday, within the margin of error, but Hillary is back up by 7 today. The state polls seem to be flat. Thursday's debate got a big audience, and if these polls are any indication, Hillary may have stopped the bleeding of her campaign.

So a time for sober reflection. CBS is reporting that Obama himself says the primary calendar favors Hillary because she is better known. He is crisscrossing the map now while she is concentrating more on the West Coast. Obama is getting record crowds. Sez Boston.com:

But even though the storyline may be a bit repetitive, that doesn't make it any less remarkable. Hordes and hordes of people have come out to see Obama in his swing through states that hold primaries or caucuses on Tuesday.

The numbers: more than 15,000 in Denver; about 13,000 in Phoenix; between 6,000 and 6,500 in Albuquerque, and almost 6,000 in Santa Fe last night. And then there's this morning's rally here in Boise: Obama's campaign says nearly 15,000 people came out to the Taco Bell Arena at Boise State University, where the Illinois senator just finished speaking.

To put that in perspective: That's about 10 percent of Boise's voting-age population. And it's roughly three times the number of people who participated in the 2004 Democratic caucuses in all of Idaho.

Obama's Denver crowd also exceeded the number of total Democrats who caucused in that state last time. But now everyone is wondering whether there's enough time for Obama to overcome Hillary's months of leading the polls and years of name recognition. The Clinton people are saying that as many of half of California's votes have already been cast in absentee ballots. If that's anywhere near true--and nobody really knows, especially since nobody knows what the turnout will be on Tuesday--it's discouraging. Not only was Hillary way ahead here, but votes that today might well go to Obama probably went to Edwards, Richardson and Kucinich, depending on when the vote was cast. The absentee ballots are maybe Obama's biggest hurdle here, and the only way to overcome them is with huge turnout of young voters, and substantial inroads into the Latino vote.

So what can we expect? Probably that it's not going to be over. It's possible that Obama will win big, or that Hillary will win big. At this point a good outcome for Obama is that they essentially split in terms of delegates. After Tsunami Tuesday, time may still be on Hillary's side, but Obama is favored in more of the remaining contests, and he has the money to make a run. Hillary may be less well positioned financially.

Looking back on what seems an eternity since South Carolina, Obama had a great first part of the week, but Hillary's campaign may have slowed the momentum. I'm only guessing, but it may well have been the result of Clintonian persuasion (Bill, probably) that Edwards, Dodd and Gore didn't endorse this week, and I'm about certain that this was the case with Richardson. The inference of course is that they would have endorsed Obama, but were persuaded not to at this time. I'm not sure political caution serves any of them well, since all of them could have made a difference in at least one state for Obama. If he winds up winning the nomination, this should be remembered.

Nobody knows what's really going on out there. The Super Bowl tomorrow throws another unknown into the equation in terms of diverting momentum or not. The Obama campaign has big events coming up--tonight in St. Louis, Sunday in LA. But Monday is looming to be an important day. What will lead the news on Monday (apart from the Super Bowl winner)?

Moving On--and Up!

It's happened--MoveOn.org has endorsed Barack Obama. He got more than 70% of the vote. MoveOn, which has never endorsed a presidential candidate before, boasts that it has 1.7 million members in Super Tuesday states. The group has over half a million members in California alone – roughly one out of ten primary voters in Tuesday's largest state... Organizers said they would "immediately" begin mobilizing on behalf of Obama, leading turnout programs and phone-banking members of MoveOn in targeted states. The group made seven million "GOTV" calls for Democrats in the mid-term elections, and it has an extensive voter file database.

It's also becoming a trend--the Service Workers Union, formerly for Edwards, has endorsed Obama. It's one of California's largest unions: The 650,000-member union's backing could help Obama cut into Hillary Rodham Clinton's lead in the polls among Democratic base voters, many of whom are union members. The SEIU includes city, county and state employees, as well as in-home support and health care workers.

The Transport Workers Union will also switch from Edwards to Obama on Saturday. It has 140,000 members and is particularly strong in New York state.

One of the endorsements hoped for today won't be coming--Bill Richardson announced he won't endorse anyone before Tuesday (he'll watch the Super Bowl with Bill Clinton though), and Chris Dodd made a similar announcement. (Dodd's former chief of staff--Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Conn., will endorse Obama Saturday.)

But Obama got an unexpected endorsement: the Los Angeles Times:

In the language of metaphor, Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been missing far too long -- a sense of aspiration.

The Oakland Tribune also endorsed Obama today--as did a total of 28 California newspapers. Candidates themselves can't be everywhere at once, so the so-called surrogates are important. Obama is sending starpower to California: how about Oprah, Caroline Kennedy and Michelle Obama together in L.A.? And the three surviving members of the Grateful Dead reuniting for a benefit Monday in San Francisco.

Obama is also moving up in the latest round of polls. There seems to be no precedent for this kind of rapid movement, so nobody knows if it will continue and be enough to score outright victories where he's not expected to win, but it does at least bode well for a big delegate haul. Plus these days, every day is a like a week as election day approaches. In South Carolina, the major movement to Obama reputedly happened the day before.

Post-Debate and so on...

What all the online and on TV pundits agree on: no major gaffes by either candidate, a tone of civility and even friendliness. Many agree that both candidates helped themselves. But as the hours went on, more were counting the points in favor of Obama. In terms of Conventional Wisdom, this is a big win for Obama, because CW said he didn't perform well in previous debates.

So this is the starting point. Of course, how the debate is ultimately viewed will probably depend on Tsunami Tuesday outcomes. Did Hillary stop the bleeding and look like a winner again? Did Obama seal the deal with voters who wanted to see substance as well as inspiration?

On substance, most rated the 20 minutes on health care a draw, and some gave Obama the decision on immigration, in the first half of the debate. But the possibly fatal moments for Hillary were in the second half, which a question on her Iraq war authorization votes forced her to once again describe how she was hoodwinked by the Bushites (which is the charitable interpretation: the less charitable is that her vote was a political calculation so she could run for President without being called an unpatriotic dirty commie rat.) Obama did more than remind everyone that he saw through it and that he was opposed from the start, but related that to the judgment needed in the White House. His line about not only being ready on Day One, but right on Day One, was often repeated in later analyses. So Obama scored big here. The only question is how important Iraq still is to primary voters.

Then Hillary had to defend Bill, and she didn't answer the question. So she lost that one without Obama needing to say a word. Put them together and you've got a clear Obama victory in the second half. (An example of this evaluation here.) Other examples are in this diary if you scroll down between the clearly partisan comments.

What's interesting to me is that several observers gave the first half to Obama on style points: he was clear, articulate, presidential. And throughout the debate he did even better than take it to Bush, he took it to McCain and Romney. On the day that it was revealed that Romney spent far more of his own money than he got in donations on his campaign, Obama commented that he hadn't gotten much of a return on his investment, so maybe he wasn't that good a businessman. That's the other thing people commented on--his humor. Presidential, likeable, capable (lots of policy wonk answers) and right.

What about your voting blocs? Al at the Field sez Did Clinton cut into any of Obama’s base votes tonight (young voters, African-Americans)? No.
Did Obama cut into any of Clinton’s base votes tonight (women, Latinos?). Yes.
Al also notes that on the most popular radio show with Latinos in southern California, Ted Kennedy made the point that “Only two senators marched for immigrant rights on May 1, 2006, one in Washington and the other in Chicago. I marched in Washington and Barack Obama marched in Chicago. He was not afraid to stand up when others wouldn’t.”)

Here's a style point: Obama waited for Hillary to sit down first and held her chair for her, and when they were done he got up first and pulled her chair out for her. So Obama clearly wins the grandmother vote. (I wish mine were alive to see this--I can hear her falling in love.)

Hillary seemed to talk alot, while Obama was more succinct and to the point. Do I have to say where I'm going with this?

Obama started off the debate talking about John Edwards, and later said that he agreed with Bill Richardson on the issue of drivers licenses for undocumented. Now everybody is wondering whether Richardson will endorse him in New Mexico tomorrow, and whether Edwards or even Al Gore will endorse him before Tuesday--because it may be too late, one way or the other, to make an impact after that. But another high profile endorsement would go a long way to keeping the momentum going.

Obama got some very interesting endorsements Wednesday, and others may be in the works. He was endorsed by Elizabeth Moynihan, the widow of legendary New York Senator Pat Moynihan, who was also Hillary's Senate mentor. North Dakota has only three legislators in Washington, and now two of them endorse Obama. And I'll let the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire make this announcement:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, the latest big name to endorse Sen. Barack Obama, could give the Illinois Democrat a boost by lending his gravitas in the financial world to a presidential candidate whose biggest hurdle is to convince voters he is experienced enough.

And From the Washington Post: Rep. John Larson today became the first senior member of the House Democratic leadership to endorse a presidential candidate, and his pick is Sen. Barack Obama. The Connecticut lawmaker, who serves as vice chairman of the House Democratic caucus, expects to campaign back home with Obama early next week, in advance of his state's Feb. 5 primary.

Also announcing for Obama this morning: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), a close friend of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Eshoo joins another Californian and Pelosi pal, Rep. George Miller, on the Obama bandwagon. Rep. Xavier Becerra, an up-and-coming lawmaker from Los Angeles, is yet another Pelosi ally supporting Obama."

But for all that, and for all the other speculation, there are two additional intriguing possibilities for Friday or Saturday. The head of the United Healthcare Workers has asked his union to shift their support from Edwards to Obama. If it happens, it adds the field operation of a union with 140,000 just in southern California. And the MoveOn.org membership has decided to endorse, and the voting is going on now.

More unions and MoveOn could add massively to field operations, already an Obama strong point. But what about those media buys in 22 states? The Obama campaign announced that it had raised $32 million in January, and signed up a quarter million new donors. The more than 1 million a day "is the largest haul ever by a presidential candidate during a competitive primary."

Finally for tonight, Obama picked up the endorsement of The Nation magazine, which said in part:

The question of who can best build popular support for a progressive governing agenda is related to, but distinct from, the question of electability. Given a certain ceiling on Clinton's appeal (due largely to years of unhinged attacks from the "vast right-wing conspiracy"), her campaign seems well prepared to run a 50 percent + 1 campaign, a rerun of 2004 but with a state or two switching columns: Florida, maybe, or Ohio. Obama is aiming for something bigger: a landmark sea-change election, with the kind of high favorability and approval ratings that can drive an agenda forward. Why should we think he can do it?

The short answer is that Obama is simply one of the most talented and appealing politicians in recent memory. Perhaps the most. Pollster.com shows a series of polls taken in the Democratic campaign. The graphs plotting national polling numbers as well as those in the first four states show a remarkably consistent pattern. Hillary Clinton starts out with either a modest or, more commonly, a massive lead, owing to her superior name recognition and the popularity of the Clinton brand. As the campaign goes forward Clinton's support either climbs slowly, plateaus or dips. But as the actual contest approaches, and voters start paying attention, Obama's support suddenly begins to grow exponentially.

In addition to persuading those who already vote, Obama has also delivered on one of the hoariest promises in politics: to bring in new voters (especially the young). It's a phenomenon that, if it were to continue with him as nominee, could completely alter the electoral math. Young people are by far the most progressive voters of any age cohort, and they overwhelmingly favor Barack Obama by stunning margins. Their enthusiasm has translated into massive increases in youth turnout in the early contests.

Finally, there's the question of coattails. In many senses there's less difference between the two presidential candidates than there is between a Senate with fifty-one Democrats and one with fifty-six. No Democratic presidential candidate is going to carry, say, Mississippi or Nebraska, but many Democrats in those states fear that the ingrained Clinton hatred would rally the GOP base and/or depress turnout, hurting down-ticket candidates. Over the past few weeks a series of prominent red-state Democrats, most notably Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad and Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, have endorsed Obama. When I asked a Democratic Congressional candidate in the Deep South who he preferred at the top of the ticket, he didn't hesitate: "Obama is absolutely the better candidate. Hillary brings a lot of sting; he takes some sting out of them."

Pre-Debate

I'm starting this the night before, and will add to it as inspiration--or rather, anxiety--strikes. In fact, this is probably all going to be me talking to myself because of anxiety.

With measurable movement towards Obama since South Carolina, and with a two person race now, this one and only debate in Hollywood tonight could be the ball game. That is, if one or the other candidate makes a major mistake, or scores a major triumph.

Wednesday saw a role reversal, at least in how campaign appearances were covered. Hillary was talking about her vision, Obama was drawing distinctions vs. Hillary. This could be interpreted as Obama trying to close the deal with voters, while Hillary is trying to recover from all the criticism of her negative campaign. The question is, will these be the roles they adopt in the debate, and how effective will they be?

I heard somewhere that Obama plans to be more specific about what he'd do as President. There's always this dance that goes on--do you stick with what's working, or do you try to stay fresh and not repeat yourself (as John Edwards was doing)? I thought Obama's positioning in his speech after the South Carolina primary was pitch perfect. But he hasn't excelled in the debates, and now he's one on one. It will be a real test. (On the other hand, he's moving up in the polls rapidly without an outstanding debate performance.)

However, while Hillary was playing victim when told of Obama's assertion that voting for her is a step back, "building a bridge back to the 20th century," Bill Clinton was giving a policy-laden speech in St. Louis in which Obama was never mentioned--yet he still managed to play into Obama's theme: Clinton, introduced to the crowd as "the next first man" of the nation, also briefly revisited the "two for the price of one" theme that he and Hillary Clinton used with supporters in the early 1990s, presenting themselves as a team. "Here is Hillary's message if you make her president: We're back," he said, drawing thunderous applause from the crowd.

Hillary's staged victory in Florida didn't go over too well, and she may face a question about that in the debate, since she's changed her position on seating Florida delegates. There might even be a question on a moment before the State of the Union in which Clinton shook hands with Teddy Kennedy, while Obama (next to him) was turned in the other direction. I've seen at least 4 accounts of this. The first one, that Clinton snubbed Obama, and then he turned away. Then a more neutral account that didn't say anybody snubbed anybody. Then Obama's account, that he had waved to Clinton earlier, and he just happened to be answering a question from Claire McCaskill next to him when Hillary took Teddy's hand. He said the incident had no meaning. And most recently, Hillary's implication that she was the one who was snubbed. " I reached out my hand in friendship and unity and my hand is still reaching out," she told FOX News. But in her column, Maureen Dowd commented, "Something's being stretched here, but it's not her hand. She wasn't reaching out to him at all."

Which partially raises the question of whether Hillary/Billary has become the issue that's driving voters, and whether Obama's on to something by emphasizing it. I ran across this interesting diary at Kos that speaks to the Rabid Right pov, that they'd much rather run any GOPer against Hillary. They seem to think that none of the GOPers have a chance against Obama.

Debates are different from campaign speeches, however. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the strategy sessions in both camps. Will Hillary attack, play the victim aggressively (by bringing up what Obama said in a campaign speech) or stay with sticking it to Bush and talking about what she'll do for the future? Will Obama start by making distinctions--the future vs. the past--or wait for Hillary to attack?

One thing I think Obama needs to do--go after Bush and the Republicans directly. Democrats want somebody who can win against GOPers, not against each other.

Shake Up

Definitely the big news of Wednesday for Democrats was John Edwards unexpectedly dropping out of the presidential campaign. He did not endorse anyone in doing so, but rumors are flying all over the Internet on whether he will, and when. Almost noone believes he would endorse Hillary, while some believe he will endorse Obama this week, some that he will do so after Tsunami Tuesday, and others that he won't at all. I saw one report--or maybe just a rumor--that he's going to be at the Democratic debate Thursday, in the audience. If he is going to endorse this week, this might be the occasion.

Al G. says on his blog that the New York Daily News is reporting that the majority of Edwards' advisors are advising him to endorse Obama before Tsunami Tuesday.

There's also buzz that the Obama campaign is telling folks to expect another major endorsement this week. It could be Edwards, it could be Bill Richardson (who according to one story I saw is likely to announce his endorsement of someone by Saturday), it could be Al Gore, or somebody else. (It won't be Jimmy Carter, apparently; he praised Obama Wednesday but stopped short of a formal endorsement, and said he wouldn't be giving one.)

One thing Edwards' exit has definitely done is make the new round of polls coming out meaningless, except in terms of the movement they're showing--and it all looks to be towards Obama. The most recent is the Rasmussen telephone poll in California, conducted after the Florida primary but before Edwards' announcement. It show Obama closing the gap to just 3% behind Hillary.
Another poll shows Obama closing the gap in Massachusetts.

The big one is the national Gallup poll which again has Obama erasing a huge deficit to come within 6 points:

Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points. Obama's position has been strengthening on a day-by-day basis. As recently as Jan. 18-20, Clinton led Obama by 20 points. Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking is based on interviews conducted Jan. 27-29, all after Obama's overwhelming victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Two out of the three nights interviewing were conducted after the high-visibility endorsement of Obama by Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy.

Edwards got 12% in this poll. So the question is: where will his voters go, especially if he doesn't endorse? Pundits have been cautious so far. The most sensible estimate I heard was E.J. Dionne talking to Keith, who noted that Hillary and Edwards split the 3/4 of the white vote Obama didn't get, and suggested that Hillary will be helped by Edwards' absense in the South, but Obama will be helped everywhere else. If so, this would be good news for Obama, who is significantly stronger in the South right now vs. Hillary, according to polls.

A poll in New York state shows Hillary has dropped below 50%, and there's just a 12 point gap, and Obama only has 44% of the black vote, so there's room to grow. The New York Post endorsed Obama Wednesday. But the bigger news may be coming from the New York Times, which Thursday has a front page story about Bill Clinton and his machinations with some unsavory international characters that could have an impact. It may be too complicated--but it may have legs, we'll see.

Otherwise in the battle of endorsements, Hillary got Patty Murray, Senator from Washington. A fascinating endorsement for Obama Wednesday came from 80 volunteer lawyers for prisoners at Guantanamo. And the most intriguing possibility of the day came with the announcement by Moveon.org that it is asking its 2 million members via the Internet if they wish to endorse a presidential candidate. If the answer is yes, the members will vote--and the results could be announced as soon as Friday. But a candidate will have to get two-thirds of the membership to be endorsed. It's a big deal because of Moveon.org's size, activism and proven ability to raise money.

Speaking of activists, the Daily Kos community has moved quickly to Obama after the Edwards announcement. Last time I checked it was Obama 78%, Hillary 12%, with 11% for neither or undecided. A week ago Obama and Edwards were tied at the top with about 40% each; in terms of raw votes, Hillary's seems about the same, and Obama's has about doubled.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is in the West, in advance of the debate in Hollywood Thursday. On Wednesday there was a rally in Phoenix with Obama, Caroline Kennedy and Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who has endorsed Obama. I believe Obama has some events in California Thursday, and will be in New Mexico Friday.

Teddy Kennedy is in New Mexico Thursday and California on Friday. John Kerry is in Washington and California Friday and Saturday.

...and Kansas and California

Well, Blogger destroyed the rest of my previous post, so I'm going to try to reconstruct some of the news I'd gathered.

The first post-South Carolina state poll is in from Rasmussen, and it shows a dead heat between Clinton and Obama in Connecticut. This is in Hillary's Northeastern sphere of influence, and the poll was taken before the Kennedys endorsements.

In the Florida primary, Hillary won mostly on the strength of early voters and early deciders--59% of those who voted. But Obama won "more support than Clinton from voters who made up their minds in the last three days (46 percent to 38 percent), in the last week (39-31) and in the last month (47-40). "

And now that McCain really does seem the likely GOPer nominee, attention should be paid to analyzes of Obama's electability vs. Clinton's like this one. This pundit's basic point applies to the primaries as well: Clinton's vote has peaked. She might get some of former supporters back, but she's unlikely to get new support. Whereas Obama's support is clearly growing, perhaps by leaps and bounds.

In Kansas, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius endorsed Obama as expected, and he also picked up an interesting endorsement from more than 80 volunteer lawyers for Guantanamo prisoners. But Hillary got an important endorsement from Maxine Waters, the iconic California Rep. and mainstay of the Congressional Black Caucus.

Speaking of California, Obama got some endorsements, too: Suddenly, California Latinos are coming out of the woodwork. Just before the South Carolina primary, state senate majority leader Gloria Romero was made a national co-chair of the campaign. By Monday noon, Joe Coto (chair of the CA Latino Caucus), Nicole Parra, Gilbert Cedillo and Dean Florez--all state legislators--were standing with Romero on the steps of the state Capitol in Sacramento to speak out, in both English and Spanish (Univision was rolling the camera), in a press conference for Obama.

This article--and one at the Washington Post--praise the Obama ground game in California and other states, saying his grassroots campaigners are an advantage over the lesser efforts of Clinton's. Obama campaign raised $5 million online in just the past few days.

Finally, back to Kansas. Before the big rally of some 4700 people in Kansas City, Obama visited the town with family connections:

It was his first visit ever to El Dorado, where his maternal grandfather, Stanley Dunham, grew up. Obama was raised by his mother and his grandparents in Hawaii; his father left the family when Obama was just 2 years old and then returned to his native Kenya.Obama told the audience that his story "spans miles and generations, races and realities."

Obama told reporters his grandfather was raised by grandparents and was a "wild child" who married his high school sweetheart from nearby Augusta, Kan., over objections from her more traditional family. He said his grandfather served in World War II and was educated on the GI Bill, while his grandmother stayed in Wichita with their baby — Obama's mother, Ann Dunham — and worked on a bomber assembly line. The family eventually moved to Hawaii, where Obama was born and raised.

Stanley Dunham died in 1992, Obama's mother in 1995. But Obama said his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, is "glued to CNN" and follows the campaign closely, even though severe osteoporosis keeps her from traveling from Hawaii.
Obama said he still has extended family in the area who have gotten involved in the campaign.

"It's been fun actually meeting them," Obama said of the distant white relatives. Then he added with a laugh, "You wouldn't spot them out in a crowd as my cousins."

Among Obama's more distant cousins is Dick Cheney, according to genealogy research done by the vice president's wife. Obama said, "It's not a close relationship."

Florida

With about 30% of the GOPer votes counted, McCain is slightly ahead of Romney, and some of his reputed strongholds have yet to report, so he may win it. MSNBC is reporting his money woes have been exaggerated, and he's going for a big media strategy for Tsunami Tuesday, hoping to pick up Ahnold's endorsement in CA.

Hillary's event has started and is getting skeptical but actual TV coverage, so it's working for her so far. The exit polling info shows however that Obama was picking up support as election day drew closer, and that half of the voters today said that the Kennedys endorsements were important in their decision. Right now Clinton is under 50%, and if that continues, it's a good indicator for Obama. That no Democrats campaigned in Florida favored the early frontrunner, so anything approaching 40% for Obama is encouraging.

Lots of reports of--what else--voting irregularities and botched elections in Florida.

Both CNN and MSNBC cut away from Hillary after a few minutes. Interesting. (But later they all give her face time in interviews. Keith tries to get her to explain how Florida delegates are ever going to count, but she doesn't. The most plausible explanation I've heard is that both Fla and Michigan will have to set up some procedure--like a caucus--to decide on delegates before they ask the Convention to seat them, because they can't retroactively make these primaries valid.)

Huckabee as expected is finishing third or fourth, and as expected, is not dropping out. He's becoming the GOPers John Edwards.

If the MSNBC conservatives are any indication, tonight's results are setting up a battle royale within the Republican party over McCain vs. Romney. It sounds like it's going to be bitter. But what's striking it seems to be based on people opposing one of the two guys rather than being for one or the other.

Howard Fineman is reporting that Rudy is definitely going to get out and endorse John McCain, though the timing is still being worked out. (On the other hand Howard reported on Saturday that Ted Kennedy wasn't going to endorse anyone.)

Now the networks are calling it for McCain. Huckabee cost Romney votes in key counties, and he's staying in. Rudy is probably getting out and endorsing McCain. If all that plays out, it looks very good for McCain.

Rudy is speaking now. Doesn't sound like he's getting out tonight. (ABC News says it's definite that he does drop out tomorrow and endorses McCain.) (Now widely reported that Rudy endorses McCain Wednesday at Reagan Library in CA before the TT GOPer debate there tomorrow night.)

Romney spoke. McCain spoke--he won a Republican only primary, destroyed Romney on issue of electability and perhaps most importantly for him--after being widely quoted as saying he doesn't know much about economics-- he beat Romney on the issue of who does better for the economy. He has to be the favorite now for real.

Meanwhile, Al Giordano's take on the Dem primary in Florida in what's getting to be my favorite blog: On the Democratic side, Mike Gravel tied Clinton, Obama and Edwards for zero delegates.

Of Kennedys and California

Some new polls came out Monday, showing Hillary leading in California among other states, though these polls were all taken well before the South Carolina primary. The Survey USA poll in particular caught online attention for its estimate of the votes already cast (pre-voting, absentee) in CA, heavily for Hillary. Some bloggers called the lead insurmountable, but one--Al Giordano at the Field--studied it more closely, and saw gold for Obama in CA. His conclusion based on the numbers is that at the time the poll was taken the CA primary was already very close, if not a dead heat. And this was before South Carolina and the Kennedys. But these events won't be reflected in new polls until Friday.

If you believe Obama has major momentum in a conventional way, and you go by the numbers so far, it would seem that he can win lots of delegates and some southern and midwestern states outright, win some western states (he was already leading in Colorado), but Hillary is too far ahead in the big eastern states. That makes California crucial to both of them, but for Obama it is the big prize that is within reach.

After the big show at American University Monday, where Caroline Kennedy and Rep. Patrick Kennedy joined Senator Ted Kennedy in endorsing Obama, Ted (and perhaps another Kennedy or two) goes immediately to California and the West, to rally Latinos and labor union voters.

A number of pundits commented today on the Kennedy endorsements. Marc Ambinder in the Atlantic thinks that more than most, " Ted Kennedy matters," not just in appeal to voting blocks, but in reinforcing Obama's message:

In some ways, there may be no member of the Democratic pantheon who better reflects the consensus-based, transformative and activist-oriented politics that Obama embraces. And so Kennedy can be an enormously effective advocate for Obama because he understands, and, indeed, has practiced the New Politics.

There are 8 days till Super Tuesday. Thanks to Ted Kennedy and Camelot, Obama's won two of them. And because momentum seems to attenuate quickly, rolling out these endorsements when the spotlight was already on Obama extends the battery life for another 24 hours.

Others gathered around the Charlie Rose table agreed that Ted Kennedy gives Obama instant credibility--if he thinks Obama is ready for the presidency, then a lot of the experience qualms go away. And they also agreed that while Kennedy's endorsement (and his speech making it) accented the positive about Obama, it also was a blow to the Clintons. As Ambinder wrote: "On a more visceral level, Ted Kennedy's endorsing your opponent is probably as big of a rebuke as there is in the Democratic Party -- even bigger than South Carolina."

There was further discussion and confirmation of the enormous backlash against Billary, but particularly Bill Clinton, in Washington. There was speculation that for many, BC's comment about Jesse Jackson winning South Carolina was the last straw--and the last straw man. The question of whether the rest of the country (outside South Carolina) is feeling this was raised among the Rose guests, but one of them at least felt the beyond-the-Beltway event of the past few days wasn't Ted Kennedy's endorsement, but Caroline Kennedy's. Because she is not a politician, not even much of a public figure, and her endorsement was so straightforward and heartfelt, it makes an emotional connection with people who, through memory or legend, feel that same connection to JFK. This speaks to the possibility of a truly transformative moment--a tidal wave--that will make all the politiking over Super/Tsunami Tuesday irrelevant.

For those of us of a more political bent--especially if we started on this dubious road because of JFK--these events were also highly emotional. Passing the torch really means something, especially as we feel so deeply about the "unfinished business" that JFK described, that RFK described, and that we have watched become buried in barbarism for most of our years.

But everyone has their own ties to that era. Here's how Obama expressed it:

" Today isn't just about politics for me. It's personal. I was too young to remember John Kennedy and I was just a child when Robert Kennedy ran for President. But in the stories I heard growing up, I saw how my grandparents and mother spoke about them, and about that period in our nation's life - as a time of great hope and achievement. And I think my own sense of what's possible in this country comes in part from what they said America was like in the days of John and Robert Kennedy.

I believe that's true for millions of Americans. I've seen it in offices in this city where portraits of John and Robert hang on office walls or collections of their speeches sit on bookshelves. And I've seen it in my travels all across this country. Because no matter where I go, or who I talk to, one thing I can say for certain is that the dream has never died. "

That last sentence was a classy tribute to Ted Kennedy, whose own presidential bid ended in defeat in 1980, but his speech to the Democratic Convention that summer was its most powerful moment, and the signature line of that speech was: "The dream will never die."

Obama revealed one of those personal connections that makes politics so fascinating and real. He spoke about his father: "I barely knew him, but when, after his death, I finally took my first trip to his tiny village in Kenya and asked my grandmother if there was anything left from him, she opened a trunk and took out a stack of letters, which she handed to me. There were more than thirty of them, all handwritten by my father, all addressed to colleges and universities across America, all filled with the hope of a young man who dreamed of more for his life. And his prayer was answered when he was brought over to study in this country.

But what I learned much later is that part of what made it possible for him to come here was an effort by the young Senator from Massachusetts at the time, John F. Kennedy, and by a grant from the Kennedy Foundation to help Kenyan students pay for travel. So it is partly because of their generosity that my father came to this country, and because he did, I stand before you today - inspired by America's past, filled with hope for America's future, and determined to do my part in writing our next great chapter."

Because of Robert Kennedy's ties with the Farmworkers, because his last electoral victory was in California, and even because California likes starpower, in addition to the reasons that pertain to the rest of the country as well, California is going to be moved by what happened today.

As for tomorrow, Obama goes to the Midwest where he'll get another high profile endorsement, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who gave an Obama-like response to Bush's State of the Union Address. Oh yeah, that happened today, too.

Today Obama was also endorsed by the Nobel Prize winning author who once dubbed Bill Clinton the first black President: Toni Morrison. Meanwhile, there are mixed messages in the wind about whether Al Gore will endorse Obama later this week.

Florida votes tomorrow. The GOPer primary still looks tight between McCain and Romney. Smart money is on Romney. Rudy may be an ex-candidate by the end of the night. Hillary will be in Florida election night to thank voters for giving her a victory versus nobody, but could this backfire? There is so much hostility towards the Clintons in the media right now that it's a bit scary.

Waiting for Ted

"Everybody needs to contribute to the common good. This is no time for foolishness."--Vasilisa Hamilton, South Carolina Obama supporter.

Monday's big event should be Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama at American University. But a few notes before that...

First, a couple of more endorsements Sunday: the Seattle Times newspaper, and the 60's icon, Tom Hayden.

Some bloggers are going over the poll numbers, which often show a large lead for Hillary in many Super Tuesday states. Endorsements of both Senators and the Governor can't ensure that Obama can close the gap even in Massachusetts. There are a couple of things to say about this. First, we could very well see dramatic differences in the next round of polls, particularly if taken after tomorrow. Second, the polls have often gotten Obama's vote numbers wrong. But this was one of the many themes Obama sounded in his victory speech, which I'm seeing more and more as the blueprint for victory specifically on Super Tuesday. He said it was going to be hard. Even with the momentum that keeps building, and the growing disenchantment with the Clintons.

It's these two factors going in opposite directions that could result in a 30 point swing in one week: Obama's growing popularity, and the Clintons' falling from favor. We'll see if Billary's support is as deep as it is wide. Pundits suggest even the Washington politicos are upset with them. Out in the country, Democratic leaders aren't dumb--they must notice that Obama is bringing thousands and potentially millions of new voters for Democrats. If they're truly interested in building a stronger, bigger and more diverse party, they have to take note of this.

Strategists among those Super Delegates and party officials at state and local levels have to notice that the South is suddenly in play with Obama leading the ticket. Add some of those states to the usually blue, and everybody wins. Real enthusiasm means new workers and a new cause, which could translate into Democratic members of Congress, state legislators, mayors and aldermen.

It's also becoming likely that the Clintons aren't going to change their strategy. One unnamed campaign official refers to Obama as "the black candidate." Bill Clinton out of the blue mentions that Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, and then mentions Obama's campaign. (Josh Marshall shows that in addition to being racially pointed, this remark lacks relevance in that Jackson's victories in 1984 and 1988 were in caucuses, and not as contested. They certainly weren't a hundred thousand vote blowouts of the leading national candidate.) This is clearly the same strategy: ghettoize Obama.

Now Hillary is going to manufacture a primary win before Super Tuesday by appearing in Florida on primary night, having deceptively trolled for votes by announcing that she supported seating the Florida delegates. There are several bloggers who show how the only way that seating the Florida and Michigan delegates will happen is if Hillary has a majority of convention delegates, in which case it won't matter. But if she goes to the convention without a majority, it's very unlikely to happen.

We'll see how the media responds to her Florida ploy Tuesday (although clearly that night's story is going to be whoever wins the Republican primary, and who therefore loses. Latest polls still show it very tight between Romney and McCain.)

Like all Senators and Members of Congress, Hillary will be in Washington tomorrow, too. I wonder what she's going to do while Ted and Barack (and who knows who else) are rallying at American University. But word came in late today that both Clinton and Obama are going to the Senate to vote against the Republican cloture of the FISA bill.

The Tide

There are two endorsements left in the Democratic Party that are huge and coveted. One is Senator Ted Kennedy, the best known and most respected elder statesman in the party. The other is one of the rising stars in the party: Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas.

News reports today say they will both soon endorse Barack Obama.

According to this report, Sebelius, who will deliver the official Democratic Party response to Bush's State of the Union address Monday, will endorse Obama shortly afterwards, perhaps on Tuesday. [Update: It probably will be Tuesday. Obama is scheduled to be in Kansas, where his mother was born.]

Multiple news sources are saying that Ted Kennedy will endorse Obama on Monday. This Kos diary quotes the Boston Globe as saying that it will be more than an endorsement--Kennedy is going to campaign for Obama in the Tsunami Tuesday states. Kennedy has the star power to offset Bill Clinton, and he can help introduce Obama to voters who are just getting focused on their primary. That's a tremendous asset to have with little more than a week before 22 states vote.

There are actually a couple of other endorsements that carry weight, most notably Al Gore. When asked, he said he would endorse at some point in the process. (One blogger with a good record of predicting endorsements hints that Gore could be next to endorse Obama.)

However, Ted Kennedy was widely expected not to endorse anyone, so that he could help heal any divisions that might occur. The diary above quotes sources as saying that the Clintons tried desperately to persuade him not to endorse with a barrage of phone calls, including one from Bill Clinton.

In today's New York Times, Caroline Kennedy endorsed Obama, comparing him to her father, President John F. Kennedy. Also in the Times, this story suggests that the first Kennedy to support Obama was Ethel Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy's widow:

It was on a November day in 2005, near the end of Mr. Obama’s first year in the Senate, when he was asked to deliver a keynote address at a ceremony commemorating the 80th birthday of Robert F. Kennedy. The invitation was extended by Ethel Kennedy, who at the time referred to Mr. Obama as “our next president.”

“I think he feels it. He feels it just like Bobby did,” Mrs. Kennedy told me that day, comparing her late husband’s quest for social justice to Mr. Obama’s. “He has the passion in his heart. He’s not selling you. It’s just him.”

Another story quotes Harris Wofford, former Senator from PA and a longtime associate of JFK and RFK: Old hands to President Kennedy and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy came out for Obama, in part because he reminded them of the charismatic brothers. One of the former advisers, Harris Wofford, said Obama “touches my soul.” “For me, no one has done that since John, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King,” Wofford said in December. “I waited a long time to have that feeling.”