Playoffs Become Real

On the first day of the 2019 NBA playoffs, only the Golden State Warriors escaped "Upset Saturday."  Their margin of victory was larger than their game warranted however.  In their second game against the LA Clippers, they managed to lose a 31 point lead in the third quarter, and lose the game in the biggest comeback in playoff history.

That was not the full extent of their misery.  They also lost Boogie Cousins to a season ending injury.  Their second half showcased serious flaws--undisciplined players, turnovers, and worst of all, panic.  All the most frustrating aspects of this year's Warriors were on view: their postgame analyses are always accurate, they spot the flaws in their game, and then fail to correct them.  Kevin Durant sounds like he has his head in the game, yet he followed a two technical and ejection night with fouling out early enough in the fourth quarter not to be on the court when the game suddenly got serious.  That doesn't sound like an elite player with his head in the game.  Both Splash Brothers had shots that might have won the game that didn't fall in the last seconds.

All that said, I recall that the championship Bull and Lakers had inexplicable playoff failures like this in their multi-ring runs.  And when play resumes in LA, the Clippers have about zero chance of winning game three.  (Of course, at the start of the third quarter of the second game, the Dubs chances to win were posted at 99.9.)

But the biggest test of the playoffs for the Warriors will come soon after.  They are very likely to meet the Rockets in the second round.  If Houston continues to dominate Utah, they will be the more rested team, and nobody wants to face a rested James Harden.  The Rockets have been playing at a higher level, and right now they are the healthier team.  Whether the Warriors are an actual team anymore, rather than a collection of high performance players, is a question opened to doubt by the first two playoff games.  And this most recent game suggests that home court advantage ain't what it used to be for the Warriors.

So suddenly the playoffs are real.  The Warriors are not confidently coasting to a championship.  However, if this was going to happen, it was going to happen in the playoff's second game, and it's best that it did.  The playoffs in general are about health and momentum.  Houston has both of those now, the Warriors don't.  Playoff games are about establishing a rhythm early and maintaining it for the entire game.  The Warriors used to know how to do that.  They'll need to relearn it and enact it for every game of the playoffs.