Really Down to the Wire

A lot of the drama went out of the final games as more teams locked into playoff spots, like the Sacramento Kings.  So the Kings sat their stars and the Warriors romped--not a given this season so far but not a big test either.  It seems Mike Brown is saving his strategies for the playoffs, as right now the likeliest scenario is for the Dubs has them facing the Kings in the playoffs first round.

The good news for Golden State is that with a victory in Portland Sunday they will be in the playoffs.  The other teams (principally the Clippers) are playing either much weaker teams or teams with their spot set and resting players for the playoffs, so they are likely to win out.  Which means that if the Dubs win in Portland, they will be the sixth seed, without home court in any series. 

At this point it seems that Portland is doing everything legal to lose, in order to get the top draft pick.  So unless the Dubs self-destruct (which of course they have done more than once this year) they should win.   If the Warriors manage to lose, they will drop out of the playoffs entirely, and into a play-in.  If the Clippers manage to lose, the Warriors (with a victory in Portland) stay in fifth.

So shortly after your chocolate bunnies tumble out of your Easter basket, the season will be over and all will be known. 

Down to the Wire

Update Wednesday night:  The Clippers victory over the Lakers moves them into fifth place, with the Warriors in 6th (the Clippers like nearly everyone else own the tiebreaker.)  New Orleans victory puts them just a game behind the Warriors, along with the Lakers--both of them with the tiebreakers.  Now the Warriors are masters of their fate in the sense that by winning their final two games they'll be in the playoffs.  According to sportswriters there are scenarios in which the Dubs could lock this up with a victory in Sacramento and other key team losses.  

Whichever way, the victory at Sacramento is necessary, barring some crazy combination of certain other teams' losses in the final two games.  However, Sacramento is still playing for second seed, so tomorrow will be hard-fought.  

An additional source of difficulty for the Dubs may well be the King's new coach Mike Brown, who just last year was assistant coach for the Warriors.  He knows their sets, both offense and defense.  He knows how Kerr coaches.  Of course, some of this knowledge goes both ways, but it adds another dimension to this game.

Coach Kerr confirmed that Andrew Wiggins will not play in Sacramento (or in Portland.)  Klay Thompson's status is unknown and probably will be until game time. 

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By coming back to defeat Oklahoma City, the shorthanded Warriors moved into fifth place, though that won't last through the night.  Unless there's a last minute injury or strain from their overtime win, I fully expect the Lakers to defeat the Clippers tonight, which (because of tiebreakers) would vault them into fifth place in the Western Conference, and send the Warriors down to sixth.  If the Clippers win, they go to fifth place.  This will make the Warriors visit to Sacramento the most consequential game of the regular season.  It seems unlikely they could avoid the play-in if they lose.  It will be a tough game, another big test.

Surprisingly, media sentiment today seems to be that the Warriors are poised for a serious run in the playoffs.  If they get to the finals, they would be the first team to do so that didn't have home court in a single previous playoff series.  

Coach Kerr is sounding confident, but then he has to, if they have any chance.  However, another story suggests the core players are concerned about the bench and their inconsistency.  They haven't cohered. I hope somebody remembers how well they played when Klay Thompson asserted leadership in the absence of Steph and Dray.   

End of the Road

Sooner or later, the road will end: the road of this once promising season for the Golden State Warriors, and the road of this championship-level team.  Sad to say, current signs point to it being sooner rather than later. 

There are still three games to go, and a playoff season ahead, but despite the imminent return of Andrew Wiggins, there may not be too many more games for this team as currently constituted.  Beyond this season, contracts and the new league agreement portend storm clouds ahead, especially if this season ends as badly as it looks like it could.

The Warriors have been saying for weeks that they understand the situation, that they know how to accelerate into playoff mode.  But they've made it hard to believe.  The Denver game may have been the final straw.  The Warriors once again got away with playing well for little more than a quarter to defeat San Antonio, but in Denver they faced a team without its dominant star, and lost.  Moreover they blew a 15 point lead in doing so.  This time there were blunt words.  Coach Kerr said they essentially stopped playing for most of the second half.  Steph Curry said bluntly that they could not expect to win a championship doing what they did in Denver.  

They may not even get the chance.  Though the bottom of the conference is still essentially tied, the Warriors could win out--which by this time seems unlikely--and still find themselves in the play-in.  That's partly because the Warriors have lost tiebreakers to just about everybody.  They have to win and pray others lose.  I don't think the Lakers will lose.  Right now they have the momentum to take the 6th seed or higher.

The problems multiply themselves.  Knowing how essential these games are, the Warriors are still not playing high quality basketball for an entire game.  They can't survive the playoffs that way.  The idea that they can just turn it on in the playoffs by this time may be a cruel fantasy.  Their confidence has to be waning while the confidence of their opponents grows.  Do they really believe they can do it?  For those of us outside, there's a lot of room for doubt, and the Denver game added to it.

Those with tickets to the last home game or can afford to buy a seat, as well as attendees at any later game in the play-in or the play-off, should savor the moment to celebrate this team.  Financially as well as whatever else is going on, it seems unlikely these players will assemble together again next year.  I hope I'm wrong.

This year began with high hopes, not only for the season but for the future.  The Warriors seemed to have a championship present with the pieces of a championship future.  Now it all may fall to pieces.

I hope they're still playing in June, and that the road ends with another banner, and impetus to retain this team next year.  But even in this flawed conference, I'm afraid that how they've played all year, lurching from crisis to crisis, with great individual achievements but only flashes of cohesiveness, is catching up with them in early April.