An Interesting Season

 The Golden State Warriors lost some apparently key off-the-bench players from their championship team, and combined with maybe some mental fatigue or hangover from their long season, they've been a team in process of finding itself.  

In December they made progress in that process.  When the starters leave the floor, they no longer typically face climbing out of a hole dug by the bench players when they return.  Several things seem to have happened.  Coach Kerr started sending Draymond Green out with the rotation players, and that had immediate positive effect.  Donte DiVincenzo has emerged as a sparkplug on defense and rebounding, and a playmaker on offense.  But it's the sudden improvement of Jonathan Kuminga that is most startling, especially on defense.  Earlier in the season, observers wrote that he looked lost on the court, and questioned his energy.  By mid-December he's becoming a trusted player on both sides of the ball.  He still has those flashes of brilliance, but he's added consistency, and his effort is no longer in doubt.

But consistency is still elusive for the team as a whole.  The Warriors went from a home loss to one of the weakest teams in the league and an abysmal loss on the road by blowing a lead in the last few seconds to another weaker team, to soundly defeating the Boston Celtics, the team with the best record in the NBA.  

Now they head out for a grueling six game road trip, with a couple back to backs, against good and very good teams.   Mostly teams in the East, and the Eastern Division has been far better so far this season than the West.  When the Warriors return home for a Christmas game, a lot more will be known about where this team stands.

The second half of the season should be very interesting.  Both the Brooklyn Nets and the LA Lakers, who looked pretty bad for most of the season so far, are stringing wins together in December.  Other top teams besides the Warriors have lost to weaker opponents.  Even the San Antonio Spurs have put together some wins.  Sacramento has emerged as a challenger in the West, at least early on.  But I'm watching what the sleeping giants, the Nets and Lakers do.  The Warriors may only have to get into the playoffs to challenge for another championship.  But they're going to have to do some winning even to do that.  It could be their patience will pay off in the coming months.  

Warrior Woes: Fixable or Fateful?

 Coach Steve Kerr's postgame press comments after losses in the wobbly start to the season for the Golden State Warriors tended to be reassuring variations of  "we'll work this out" and "we'll figure this out."  After last night's loss at Phoenix, which wasted a highly efficient 50 points by Steph Curry, and which at least one commentator called the team's worst performance of the season," Kerr was succinct and direct. "Steph played well, nobody else did."  

It wasn't a cohesive team effort, he said, but more of a pick-up game.  Again, the Warriors were overrun on defense, committed too many fouls and didn't rebound.  Teams look forward to playing the Warriors now, he said.  

Much of what Kerr identified can be seen as products of effort and concentration.   Players, Kerr implied, seemed to have things on their mind other than playing winning basketball.  These things are fixable.  Playing in the playoffs from beginning to end is like playing an extra half season, but at a sustained high level.  The roller coaster year that led to a championship, the summer of release, the increased off-court commitments and opportunities, the readjustments to normal life (and/or to new contracts)--all may play a part, even though the starting five is the still the standout unit of the league. 

Also fixable are the growing pains of the younger players, though every young player is a gamble that might or might not pay off, this year or any other.  These growing pains have been what many have pointed to, including Kerr and others associated with the Warriors, as the chief reason for the second unit problems of giving away leads.  Kerr said several times that he's still looking for the right configurations of players, the right rotations.

But there is concern that the woes being revealed aren't fixable with the Warriors' current roster.  Analysts with much deeper knowledge of the technicalities of defense in particular suggest that the team failed to compensate for the skills lost when Gary Payton II and Otto Porter, Jr. departed after the championships season.  Not just their experience or specific skills, but their physical size and abilities.

Time will tell, but this element of doubt is now part of the mix.

Wobbly Warriors at Season's Start

 The Golden State Warriors are off to a terrible start.  They have yet to win a road game, and lost five straight, all to what seemed to be inferior teams.  Though clearly the season is just starting, they are digging themselves an ever deeper hole.  Teams bring their A game to every contest with the league champions, and now they can believe they can win those games.  The psychological advantage is shifting away from the Warriors.

This at a time when the Warriors are actually healthy.  Steph Curry, Draymond Green and  Andrew Wiggins have started the season playing at a high level.  After a slow start, Jordan Poole had several superior offensive performances.  In that fifth loss, in which the starters were rested, bench players Jonathan Kuminga and Anthony Lamb had strong games, along with Ty Jerome and Moses Moody.  James Wiseman has shown signs.  All of that is hopeful, and this was an unusual stretch in which the Warriors played two back to backs on the road, including three games in four days.

Now they're coming home, with an unforeseen mountain to climb.

Good Moves Dubs

Turns out the Golden State Warriors know what they're doing.  They let a number of last season's key supporting players go on to more prominent roles on other teams, but made judicious choices to replace them on the roster.  The Warriors opened the new season with a convincing win over the Lakers, with solid contributions by 10 or 11 players.  

The Warriors now have the luxury (for which they are paying alot in luxury tax) of an established core of mostly veteran stars, plus a host of very young players with enormous potential.  Some may falter, but others may very well be stars in the future, and a couple might come close to that this season.

Coach Steve Kerr, who as a player and coach has been part of several teams that won multiple championships, including back-to-backs, said that a championship team with dynastic potential often gets better the year after a championship (it gets much harder after that.)  This makes perfect sense, for the teams that won their championship with a solid lineup, and not (as some have) as the result more of luck, including key injuries to their opponents.  

Every team needs luck to win the championship, but everyone knew that last year's Warriors were contenders.  Now they are champs, starting the season with all their starters healthy.  They may well prove to be a better team this year than last.  The league is highly competitive, but Golden State in a number of ways has proven to be the gold standard of the NBA. 

Bad Moves Dubs?

 The victory parade and Dub lovefest was barely over when the parade of players leaving town began.  Some of the exits were understandable.  Tuscano-Anderson was unlikely to get much playing time with Golden State, but he might elsewhere.  Otto Porter, Jr. has a limited time to get his payday--he seemed like a rental, though he became a valued teammate.  But Gary Payton II really hurt, as did the way it happened. Golden State wouldn't match Portland's higher offer, which wasn't really much higher.  Given everything else, it was nickels and dimes.  Payton II was a valued teammate, beloved by fans and very motivated to be a Dub forever.  His absence may hurt where it really hurts: on defense...At least the Warriors made sure to keep Kevon Looney.  

But the big bad move the Warriors haven't yet made is to empty the future for Kevin Durant.  Since Durant announced he wanted to be traded, there apparently have been feelers and contacts, at least among the players.  The story so far is that the Warrior main cast would welcome him back.  I wonder.  What seems clearer is that the fans may not, especially if it means losing players they are attached to.  Sure, it's all a business and teams change every year.  But why would the Dubs trade away their future for what could be a few years of Durant before he gets restless again?  I would have scoffed at the idea that management would go for this.  At least before they let Payton II get away.  For me, I've seen this show before.  My enthusiasm for following the Warriors would definitely lessen.

Fans and the Finals: Boston's Win One, Lose the Series

 There's a good case to be made that the third game of this year's NBA finals was won by the Boston Celtic fans in Boston Garden.  If that's so, there's an equally good case that the fourth and deciding sixth game of the series were lost by the Boston Celtic fans.

Many years ago I became fascinated by the theory of a little-known academic named Peter Senge about a mysterious process that happens especially in group situations that he called "alignment."  This concept was later re-branded by others as "flow."  Now everyone knows (more or less) what flow is--a state of hyper-awareness, almost unconscious efficiency at speed, when everything works beautifully.  (Senge had better luck in branding when he came up with "The Fifth Discipline," that sold a lot of books etc.)  One of Senge's examples of alignment was what sometimes happened in a basketball game.  I was especially intrigued by the idea that it sometimes was felt by both teams.

Today the coaches and players talk often of the flow of the game, of being in rhythm, of playing with force, etc.  Momentum is recognized as a reality, and teams go through periods when they score in bunches (or runs) while the other team suddenly can't defend, or an efficient offense suddenly gets out of synch and seems to fall apart.

Also recognized is the role of the fans in the building.  There are a number of reasons that home games provide advantages to the home team, and the fans are often a big one.  Their enthusiasm inspires energy and effort.  The home team can ride on the waves they create, and interact with that enthusiasm, making it greater with great plays.  

What is less obvious, partly because until recently it has been much less prevalent, is the negative vibes--the virulence up to the edge of violence--of home fans against the away team.  How it can work, and then quickly backfire, was demonstrated in Boston.

Golden State fans are enthusiastic for their team, and as the fans in many other arenas, they may boo the other side but basically treat them respectfully.  It's an aspect of self-respect, and of the culture.  But Boston is one of those places with a different culture, and they took it up a notch in the first game of the finals to be played at Boston Garden: game 3.

With loud and repeated chants of "fuck you, Draymond," they set a new standard for viciousness and hate in what is supposed to be a sports contest, an aspect of entertainment.  That Boston has been known as a bastion for racism in several decades of the 20th century, made this even more portentous and ugly.

It seems doubtful to me that this encouraged the home town team very much.  But in this case it did rattle the visitors.  Everyone on the close-knit Warriors team was acutely aware of the presence of Draymond Green's child or children, his family, and the other children in the building.  Green's game fell apart.  The Warriors fell out of alignment.  Then Draymond heard Steph Curry scream in pain when a larger Celtic fell across his foot and ankle when they were on the floor grasping for a loose ball--exactly the same circumstance by which another Celtic injured Curry's foot during the regular season, causing him to miss several weeks of games.  At that point Draymond lost it entirely.  The Warriors lost the game, and were down 2-1 in the series.  They would be returning to this court after just one day off for the now-crucial fourth game.

In their interviews between games the Warriors players and coaches seemed calm.  Curry talked easily of his ten hours of sleep and his physical therapy on his foot.  When Curry tested that foot with  a three late in the first quarter, and nailed it, he cried out in triumph.  The emotions hidden from the cameras and microphones started to come out on the floor.  

Curry had a game that former teammate Kevin Durant called "iconic."  Curry scored 43 points in 41 minutes.  He had 7 threes, four assists and--incredibly--10 rebounds.  He dominated the scoring by causing defensive havoc in how he hit from everywhere.  But other Warriors also played an inspired game, especially in dominating the boards.  Andrew Wiggins had 17 points--and 16 rebounds.  Kevon Looney had 11, Draymond had 10.  Klay Thompson chipped in 18 points, hitting key buckets and playing some crucial defense in crunch time.   Jordan Poole led the bench that together added 25 points. 

Later Draymond said he was sure that part of Curry's obviously emotional game was in response to the ugly chants and behavior of the Boston fans the night before.  In retrospect, it seems that motivation was there for the entire team.

After a home victory in the fifth game, the Warriors were in the driver's seat.  They could afford to lose the sixth game in Boston and win it all before their own fans at home.  But that seems never to have been an option.  From Coach Kerr to the players, they wanted to win the sixth game not only because anything can happen in 7th games, but because it was in Boston.  They wanted to silence those fans.  And by the end of the first quarter they did.  Many of those rabid Celtic fans were on their way home before the game was nearly over.

The Warriors' response to those chants created an intensity by which they created their own flow.  The silence was as good as cheers.  It unleashed emotion that continued long after the game was over.  Golden State had figured out the Celtics team.  But they were playing to defeat the haters in the Celtics' stands.

The State of Golden

 In the fifth game of the finals, the Golden State Warriors did what they had to do: when Boston concentrated on stopping Steph Curry, other shooters stepped up, particularly Andrew Wiggins.  Klay Thompson and J. Poole had good games. Draymond Green returned to form, especially on offense.  But the difference for the Warriors was defense. That's where they made the adjustments, to which the Celtics had no answer.  Gary Payton II strengthened the defense in the last several games, but it was really a team effort.  Golden State used quick hands and positioning to make up for their apparent deficiencies.

After this victory, the Warriors were very confident about game six.  Coach Steve Kerr guided them to closing out the series in this game in Boston. They were focused on it.

After the Dubs were down 2 games to 1, Klay Thompson said he was getting 2015 vibes.  That was the first championship year, when the Warriors came back from a 2-1 deficit to win the series in six games with three straight victories.  That's exactly what they did again in 2022.  In 2015, the difference was largely Andre Iguodala, on offense and defense, reflected in his MVP trophy in that series.  It seemed pretty clear after the fifth game in that series that the Warriors were going to win in six.  In 2022 there was no easily named difference-maker in these last several games, but the scores were remarkably similar--the Warriors were in the low 100s, the Celtics in the low 90s.   It was team defense, plus several of the new Warriors--like Wiggins and Poole--figuring out the Celtic defense.  And of course, the sustained brilliance of Steph Curry.

In fact, the Warriors seemed so confident and the media so unanimous in predicting a 6th game victory that it was all set up for Boston to come roaring back.  The pundits may not have known anything, but the Warriors did. Boston came fast out of the gate but by the beginning of the second quarter, Golden State turned 21 unanswered points into a lead that grew to be insurmountable pretty early.  The struggles of the past three years came flooding into Curry's consciousness, so that he was in tears and may have actually blacked out in the closing moments.  

This year, Steph Curry set the all-time career record for 3s, won the MVP for the All-Star Game and the Western Conference Finals, and was the unanimous choice for MVP of the Finals.  The Warriors won its fourth championship in eight years, with the same core players--Steph, Klay and Draymond--who together with Andre I. had been together at Golden State for a decade. 

After the series was over, one player after another--starting with Andrew Wiggin--said they absolutely wanted to return to the Warriors.  Kerr was about to lose two of his assistant coaches to head coaching jobs elsewhere, but at the last second, one of them decided he was better off being an assistant at Golden State.  That speaks to the team and the culture. The closeness of the players, the mentorships of the veterans and the example of hard work and unselfish play, along with management's commitment to shared responsibility and complete support, with an eye to the long game--those are some of the components of that culture. Steph Curry is its embodiment. The team culture was the bedrock upon which these championships were built.  They'll have a parade tomorrow, and soon enough will be getting ready to go for more.

Finals Fifth Game Preview

  Depending on circumstances, there can be several crucial games for one team or the other in an NBA playoff series, especially the Finals.  But particularly in a 2-2 series, the fifth game is nearly always decisive.  The winner of the fifth game most often goes on to win the championship.

 The Warriors and Celtics are tied 2-2.  Each has won a home game and a game away. By winning the fourth game, the Warriors reestablished home court advantage: the 5^th and (if needed) 7^th game will be played on the Golden State court.

 But Boston has established a pattern in the playoffs of alternating between wins and losses regardless of the court, and not losing two in a row.  Since they won the first game of this series, they can win the championship without winning two games in a row.

 A Finals series is often about game-to-game adjustments, which also factor in this series.  Those adjustments, sometimes reflected in decisions during the game, depend on the coaches.  So far Steve Kerr has been outcoached in the third game, arguably the first as well, but outcoached Boston in the fourth game decisively.

 By the fifth game however, the teams and the coaches know a lot more about their opponent.  We won’t know what they learned until it is reflected in game outcome. Sometimes an adjustment even this late is decisive.  But the options are often more limited.

 So what about this fifth game?  Boston has been unable to defend Steph Curry for an entire game—it’s possible they will do something more radical to keep Curry from operating with the ball, and dare the rest of the Warriors to beat them.  But even though Steph got the major praise for carrying the team to a fourth game victory—often said to be his best Finals game ever—there were other good signs for the Warriors.  

Both Andrew Wiggins and J. Poole showed signs of figuring out the Boston defense.  Wiggins was outstanding at rebounding, and Looney had another solid game.  And in a very good sign, Klay Thompson played really good defense in the fourth quarter, and had the afterburners to make shots down the stretch. And Bjelica, one of the Warriors who hasn’t played much in the series, showed he can defend Boston's star Tatum.

 Fan exuberance is one thing, but the Warriors can’t go into the fifth game taking for granted they will win because they are at home, or because Steph Curry is having a brilliant series.  But apart from that, the Warriors have some momentum. Draymond Green is due to relax into a consistent game on both sides of the court. The Warriors who aren’t Steph—especially those who showed signs in the fourth game-- are ready to show their appreciation to him by being brilliant in game 5.  The Warriors will have to win two games in a row at some point to win the series.  This would be a good time to do it.

 On the other side, Boston’s Jason Tatum and J. Brown are capable of breakout games, and have had them in the playoffs.  They will likely be the keys for Boston in the fifth game.  Tatum in particular will want to slap down the Steph as MVP narrative that continued in the days after game 4.

 Another possible key: Boston’s center Robert Williams, coming back from injury and making a defensive difference, tweaked a knee and left the fourth game early.  He may or may not play in the fifth game, and may or may not be effective.  That could be huge for the Warriors getting to the basket.

 There are any number of ways this game could go. Neither team will win the series outright with a victory in the fifth game, and these two teams in particular break more rules than they follow.  But the loser will likely find a very hard road ahead.

The Epic Warriors, the Warriors' Epic

 

In winning the Western Conference Finals at home in the fifth game, the Golden State Warriors displayed all aspects of their team character and their particular style or game.  So now before the Finals start--even before their opponent is known (the East series is going to a 7th game) there's time to reflect on their epic journey--and I use that word "epic" for a reason.

In post-game interviews, Warriors' players and Coach Kerr all knew the story. Three seasons ago, on the brink of winning their third championship in a row, with their finals' star Kevin Durant coming back dramatically from injury, the story took a sudden, Greek drama turn.  Durant suffered an even more serious injury and was out for the decisive games.  But in the sixth game, Klay Thompson rose to the occasion and was driving the Dubs to victory--when he fell to a serious injury, and did not return.  The Warriors were spared a 7th game blowout when Steph Curry missed a 3 point shot at the end of the game.

Then Kevin Durant decided not to return to Golden State.  Then after recovery and rehab from his injury, Klay Thompson suffered an even more serious injury.  Then Steph Curry broke his hand.  The odds against all this happening in this way are so astronomical that it qualifies as a weird kind of fate.

Then the Warriors made it through their worst season, leading the league in losses when just a few years earlier they'd led it in wins.  Then after more personnel changes they struggled through another Covid year, but started to jell in the last 20 games.  In another year, they might have squeaked into the playoffs but the league was trying out a new "play-in" system, and they lost those play-in games.  (Oddly, something similar would happen to the baseball San Francisco Giants.)

All through this the Golden State team culture was tested but held together.  Individuals (Klay, Draymond, and surely others who don't talk about it) had their doubts, about the team, about themselves.  Dark nights of the soul. 

 Klay Thompson, universally popular among fans and NBA players and the media, slowly worked his way back.  When he returned this year, Draymond Green was already injured and would be out for weeks.  When Green came back, Steph Curry was injured in a game with Boston on a play that Coach Kerr thought was questionable.  For awhile it looked as if the struggle to get to the playoffs might come up short.  But then the team started winning, and at the very end, the core players--Steph, Draymond and Klay--were on the court together, not just for the first playing time this season, but the first time in over two years.

They discovered themselves in the playoffs--that is, the team that is now, with the new arrangement of castoff veterans and young players, including two not yet twenty years old.  One virtue of the fractured year or two was that a lot of players got to play.  They learned, and the coaches learned about them.  In these playoffs, several of them were the difference in specific games, and all of them were important to final victory.  But several of them were also lost to injury from one series to the next, so other players had to step up--either starters like Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins--or other young players who hadn't had many minutes.

So now, after all that, the Golden State Warriors are back in the finals for the sixth time in eight years.  The style they play now based on their personnel is as much fun to watch as their 2015 and 16 teams. But their game of those years, which changed the NBA (so they now face teams that take more 3 point shots than they do) has itself changed, become even more dynamic.  

This climb, this return, this redemption, at this level is our version of the epics of heroes that support the cultures of the world.  They may not be those kinds of heroes exactly (though they serve important social and cultural functions; for it was Steve Kerr, after all, who made the most watched, most passionate statement on the Texas school shooting nightmare, over any political figure) but this epic story also has the virtue of being true.

Either East opponent looks formidable, particularly the Boston Celtics, with their bullying style.  But the Warriors have momentum (and will be more rested) and they may well be the healthiest all year--all the players who missed games in the playoffs could well be available for the finals.  They seem to be peaking as a team.  And they will have home court.

But even if they don't win the championship, this season is already a success--an epic story, and for a change, a heartening one.

On Their Way

 With three victories in the first three games in the Western Conference Finals, the Golden State Warriors are discovering themselves as a team of championship potential.  They have neutralized the Mavericks' advantages and are playing at a tempo and with an intensity that matches the moment.  They dominated the first game with offense and rebounding.  They came from 19 points behind in the second game with smothering defense and offense at the basket.  

By the time they got to Dallas, they were imposing their will.  The Mavericks tried to win the second half of the second game with the sharpshooting of 3s that won the first half, but couldn't do it.  So for the third game, the first at home, they were determined to go inside more.  But that didn't work either.  The very impressive Luka Doncic could get 40 points a game, but the Warriors were just disruptive enough--and rebounding those misses--to get their offense going at their own pace.  If Dallas came out to stop 3s, they went inside.  If they clogged up the basket area, they shot threes.

Kevon Looney was the rebounding hero of the closeout game against the Grizzlies, and had a career high 21 points in the second game against Dallas.  In the third game Andrew Wiggins added to his stellar defense on Doncic a big night on offense, with 27 points and the monster dunk of the playoffs.  Both got player of the game honors, but the thread of excellence that runs through these three games is Stephan Curry, now very likely to receive the first conference finals MVP.

Perhaps the most heartening stat for Warriors fans in the third game was only 10 turnovers, their one conspicuous vulnerability.  The Warriors are 3-0 in this series, without spectacular games from Klay Thompson or Poole (yet both hit key shots.) Either of them can explode at any time.  The Mavs have no big man answer, and Looney is dominant on the defensive end.  

While a sweep is likely, and no more than a five game series very likely, the Eastern Conference Finals look very much like they could go 7 or at least 6.  Both Miami and Boston have already won a game on the road, so home court may not be much of a factor.  It looks like it's game by game.

Warriors Advance

 The Golden State Warriors won their second round playoff series against Memphis in six games.  They had taken a 3-1 lead into the fifth game at Memphis and were blown out.  Coach Steve Kerr, who was out with Covid, told the team not to chase a victory in the fifth game--just execute the game plan.  They did neither, but they definitely chased a victory at home in the sixth game, with the first team playing more minutes than ever before.  They did not want to return to Memphis.  It took heroic games by Klay Thompson and especially Kevon Looney, and a fourth quarter run led by Steph to put it away.

The Grizzlies had embarrassed themselves by charging without any foundation that a Warrior player had caused the injury of their young star, Ja Morant.  Then the same Memphis player who had been suspended for a game for his flagrant 2 chop of a defenseless Gary Payton, breaking his elbow, committed another blatant flagrant foul in the sixth game, flinging Steph Curry to the floor.  If the NBA becomes any more like the NFL, it will ruin the game of basketball.

Now Golden State plays in the Western Conference Finals against a very tough Dallas team, that combined smothering defense and flashy offense to bury the Phoenix Suns, the team with the best season record, at Phoenix in the seventh game of their series.  Late in the game Dallas led by more than 40 points, and at halftime led by almost 50.  

The Warriors have the significant advantage of home court, but it's only a strategic advantage if you keep it.  As usual, the first game on Wednesday is very important.

The other seventh game on Sunday was another shocking beatdown: the Boston Celtics humiliated last year's champion Milwaukee.  The Celtics have to survive another series, but they seem to me to be the Warrior's most formidable potential opponent.  That is, if they get past their actual opponent of Dallas, and I'd say that's even money right now.  This Warriors team is still discovering itself.

War on the Warriors

 Remember basketball?  It can be a beautiful game, especially as the Golden State Warriors play it.  What happened in Memphis in the second game of the playoffs' second round was not basketball.  It was the Memphis team (and their fans) going to war.

I don't for a minute buy the description of the attack on Gary Payton II that resulted in a serious injury that takes him out of the playoffs as "not intentional," or the elbow that bloodied Draymond Green and closed one eye for days as "inadvertent," any more than were the punches to Steph Curry.  Hitting Payton in a defenseless moment, who just happened to be the primary defender on the Grizzlies' top scorer, ending his ability to play in the series, sure, that was an accident.  As was the hit on Green, another defender of that top scorer and the field general for the offense,  just a coincidence.

A one game suspension for one player is not enough.  The only effective league deterrent is forfeit of a game.  But even that isn't really enough, because Payton is out for the rest of this series--which happens to be his most important series because of his ability to guard Morant.

The league needs to settle this down now.  The Commissioner or another official should attend the next game in a very visible way, to observe what's going on.  The better referees should be reassigned to this series, not the crew that officiated in Memphis, especially in the first game, when (among other errors) they made way too much of Green's foul, and set up this escalating retribution.

Unfortunately not much can be done about the blood-thirsty Memphis crowd, except to silence them with resounding defeat. 

Onward with the Golden State Warriors

 The plain fact about the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs is that this is a team no one has seen before. Comprised of veterans with championships and acknowledged greatness, and younger players of immense potential, it is nevertheless a new team.  With key players getting injured and returning from injury throughout the second half of the season, this is a team that has never played together before, until the playoffs.  That's also because the players who got more minutes than they otherwise would have with one star or another out, are themselves different players because of that.

The Warriors won their first round series against Denver and last year's (and perhaps this year's) regular season MVP, with two blowout wins and two character-builders--three if you count the one they lost.  They get an extra day or two of rest on their next opponent, and they are still healthy.  Best of all, Steph Curry came back in this series with a quick return to top form.  He took over the last minutes of the deciding game.

Now suddenly the Warriors are the favorites to win the NBA championship.  Excessive enthusiasms one way or another have become the hallmark of sports coverage and the echo chamber of sports pundits.  And it's true that this Warriors teams, like some of the championship years, at times seems otherworldly.  When they are playing well this team is more dazzling and fun to watch than any other.

But they are a new team, and prudence suggests their crowning after one round is premature.  I'm a Warriors fan but I have no idea how this team will fare against any of their opponents, because this particular team has never played them.

If you're going by the fact that no other team in the West won their first round--usually the easiest for the higher seed--in five games, that shows vulnerabilities but not necessarily to the Warriors.  However, with the decline of Phoenix in the playoffs, it's not a bad bet that the Warriors will emerge champions of the West, ultimately.

But in the East, the Boston Celtics didn't just win in five--they swept a team many pundits picked to win it all, the Brooklyn Nets.  The Celtics specialize in brutal defense--and I mean brutal in both senses of the word.  If they come out of the East, the Warriors will likely be tested.

But that's a month away.  These Warriors are still a new team in the second round, and if they get through that, the third.  It's going to be exciting--maybe too exciting--but anyway, exciting.

Suddenly the Warriors

 

To expect success in the playoffs, a team needs to go into them healthy and with momentum.  There are exceptions but that's the rule.

With a few weeks left in the season, the Golden State Warriors had neither.  Still trying to adapt to the loss of their latest injured star (Steph Curry), they were losing, and to much weaker teams.  After two years recovering from injuries, Klay Thompson was slowly rounding into form, and after his injury, Draymond Green admitted he wasn't playing well.  Meanwhile, the Warriors looked like they would drop further down in seeding, and miss any home court advantage.

But then things started to click.  The Warriors started winning, Green and Thompson became brilliant again, and the team secured the three seed with a five game winning streak.  It looked like Curry would be back for the first game of the playoffs, at home against Denver.

Until the playoffs, the core of stars--Curry, Thompson and Green--had played together for less than 20 minutes total this season.  But during all this turmoil, the younger and newer players got plenty of court time, lots of attention from the coaching staff, and all kinds of game experience.  Some found solid roles.  Two in particular--Jonathan Kuminga and Jordan Poole--were learning so much that they seemed like different players each game.  Andrew Wiggins, who played himself into the All Star game in the first half of the season, was up and down, but was starting to settle in as the season ended.  By then, Jordan Poole in particular was emerging as a star, a younger version of Steph.  Once again, this is a team that is the most fun to watch.

 Of course Coach Steve Kerr could not have planned it this way, but he did foresee its advantages.  It was clear from earlier in the season that the Warriors have now assembled a very talented group beyond the starters.  So when the playoffs began, Poole was starting--and starring--while other players were ready to make the most of their minutes to help the team.

Only time will tell, but it is possible that this is a better team than it was with Kevin Durant.  After two overpowering victories in the first round, a gutty win in the third game, and a sweep within sight, people were taking another look at the championship potential of the Warriors--not next year but this year.

As good as the Warriors were in the first half, when they had the league's best record, they are better now.  They look devastating against the Denver Nuggets.  No one could know what the chemistry would be like when various combinations of this core group played together--Steph, Klay, Draymond, Poole, Wiggins, Kevon Looney and Andre Igoudala.  But it's been immediate.  There might have been a question about Curry returning from his foot injury, ready to play--but once he became comfortable with the pace of the game, the rest seemed to provide him with the energy in the second game to score more points in the briefest time than anyone else.

Right now it looks like the only thing that can stop these Warriors is... the same thing that has stymied them for the past two years: injuries.  The playoffs are brutal.  It's going to take that other necessary element to succeed in the playoffs: good fortune.  They've had enough of the other kind.   

The NFL, the Super Bowl and the Game

 The NFL is in such deep shit that it gives a new meaning to Super Bowl.  Fired Dolphins coach Brian Flores is suing the entire league for a pattern of racism in hiring, but his supporting allegations seem to go beyond that.  His charge that owners run the league "like a plantation" only articulates in a very public way what some sportswriters and others have been saying for years, though sometimes more obliquely. 

Meanwhile, the Washington football club and its current management have not gotten out from under their troubles with a less than popular new team name.  As one article recently summarized the situation, the league is in general disrepute, but it rakes in so much cash and the owners are so absurdly wealthy that they feel invulnerable.

One reason is the strange centrality in American culture of the Super Bowl.  Why is it a national holiday and obsession on a par with Christmas--or exceeding it?  It's not often even a very good football game.  But it's self-generating hype at this point, with TV heavily invested.  And given the pandemic and the perilous state of politics, we are desperate for distraction.  We'll ignore insurrection, mob insanity, war, death, racism, anything.  Let's wallow and rate the multi-million dollar commercials.

And so we're into it again.  But is this year's winner even in doubt?  The LA Rams are a very wealthy team that spent heavily on the best veteran players it could buy precisely to be in this game, in its own stadium. It's a team that not only feels it belongs in the Super Bowl, it feels entitled.  Meanwhile, the Bengals are the unlikely opponent, that nobody predicted would be there, and some refuse to even believe they are.

So it's a great setup for a David and Goliath story, with the All American boy Joe Burrow as the miracle making hero.  He is certainly a highly gifted quarterback with an almost magical quality.  His problem is that in order to throw a pass, he has to be standing up.  The Rams have an overpowering defensive line and pass rush, the Bengals a not very good offensive line.  Maybe Burrow spends just enough time not flat on his back to squeak out a victory in a low-scoring game, as he has before in these playoffs.  But it seems much more likely that the best possible outcome is that he survives this game without serious injury.  The Rams may not score much either, so I expect this to be a ugly game.

The retirement of Tom Brady and the Steelers' Big Ben symbolize the changeover to Burrow and the other young quarterbacks that run a different kind of game.  While not quite as thoroughly as Steph Curry changed NBA basketball, these exciting young quarterbacks are what could save the game on the field.  But it's in the executive suites that the smelly problems persist.

 It didn't take long for everybody to forget concussions and serious injuries that could be avoided with rule and equipment changes.  That responsibility also belongs to the league leadership.  But they don't really care.  Nor does the sports media that feeds off the mayhem.  They provide the deodorant.  Besides, it's more difficult to get upset about violence in football when  it's ominously clear that daily life in America is becoming more violent.  While the bodies crashed in the LA stadium during the last game, a visiting fan was beaten and killed outside.  It isn't just the NFL that's in deep shit these days.