A New Season

Suddenly, a new team and a new season.  Kuminga and Podziemski are starting, Trayce Jackson Davis is getting meaningful minutes and looking like the big man the Warriors need.  Saric and Moody continue to make their minutes count, and Chris Paul is thriving by helping them all thrive.  With stalwart games by Klay Thompson and now Andrew Wiggins helping Steph Curry on the scoreboard as well as playing better defense, the Warriors won five in a row and held the Nuggets even for most of the game in Denver, despite playing their third game in four nights, off-nights shooting for Steph and Klay, and a huge disparity in foul calls, plus Denver's dependable sixth man: the altitude.  The result is a 15-15 record, and in a sense, the season starts here.

The Warriors went on their winning streak without Draymond, without the injured Gary Payton II, and until the Denver game, without much from Wiggins.  The streak included a win against Boston, a top tier team in the standings.  The offense is finally thriving, and though spotty at times the defense can be thrilling, with blocks from Jackson-Davis and steals from JK.  

Coach Kerr has the opportunity to mix and match his lineup choices within games, provided the players (including the vets) totally buy in to fewer minutes and more precise roles.  The win streak that included the young players should free him to make decisions based on basketball situations, because no one can argue with winning.    

With the next seven games at home, and with Payton and perhaps Draymond becoming available in that stretch, the Warriors have an opportunity to revive their prospects.  They've already reinvigorated their season.  

In the Balance

 Draymond Green's indefinite suspension adds a new level of uncertainty to the Golden State Warriors season and likely the future of this particular team.  The chaos in the system has increased, which is not often a good thing.  

Yes, opposing players who know Green's weak points do bait him (and feign sorrow and empathy afterwards) and yes, officials are hard on him and make questionable calls.  But his behavior is his behavior, and he and the Warriors own it.

As for the team in general, General Manager Dunleavy said that the next 20 games will tell the tale as to whether big (that is, personnel) changes must be made.  Right now on the court, the only thing consistent about the Warriors is losing.  They lose in a different way each game.  At Phoenix, Klay Thompson had a bad game and Steph Curry a bad shooting second half, and they lost by the points Dray gave away on his fatal fouls.  Against the Clippers, Klay was on fire for 30 points but Wiggins had a bad night and Steph had his second bad shooting game in a row. Various bench players look extremely good one game and fade the next.  The Dubs have given away games with turnovers and fouls (the most recent OKC game) and lost games in which they had few turnovers and fouls.  They seldom lose by much (two recent games by 1 point; others by 2 or 3.)  But they do find a way to lose.

Everything is up for grabs now, for even a wild card or play-in looks remote at this point.  The hope that 2021-22 can be replicated--serial chaos during the season, but finishing strong--looks like a remote possibility.  If changes are made, they may be for the future, not this year.  In any case, the Warriors are up against it.  The pressure is on to start winning, which may make winning harder.  The rest of the league is happy to beat up on the Warriors, and nobody pities them.  They've been dominant for too long.  But starting to win is the only remedy for what ails them.  The season and the future are in the balance.

A Delicate Balance

It works until it doesn't.  Last year's starting five for the Warriors was statistically the best in the NBA.  This year so far, the same starting five is near the bottom.

I saw this happen to the San Francisco Giants, I believe it was 2016, but in a more compressed and comprehensive fashion: for the first half of the season they had the best record in MLB; the second half, the worst.  That was the beginning of the team's decline and turnover and continued decline, with one last hurrah in 2021 that fell short.  

It could be as soon as the OKC game today that there's at least one change in the Warriors' starting five.  Maybe it will make a difference.  Coach Kerr has 10 very good players but no combination of them so far has looked like a team to be feared.  The Portland game was decided by a player not in the rotation, Jonathan Kuminga.  He was not only effective, he brought excitement.  The home crowd had somebody other than Steph to go wild over.    

With two-thirds of the NBA season to go, it's an awkward moment to be looking for a new balance, but better to experiment sooner than later.  It may be as simple as cutting back some of the veterans' minutes, especially in the first half of the season.  And of course, maybe not.

Speaking of a team to be feared: the San Francisco 49ers are about at that level now, though they haven't won anything yet.  But they crushed the bully boys of Philly and that counts for a lot.  Teams may talk about a challenge but nobody wants to play the Niners right now.  Still, every week is a test: beat the better teams, don't let down or let up on lesser teams.  

That mistake was made by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the thrashing they got from Jacksonville, a team with a losing record, may have carried over to their loss to another lowly team, Boston.  When Brady was there, the Patriots too often broke the hearts of Steelers nation, and this brings it all back, dropping the Steelers out of a Wild Card spot.  With an injured starting quarterback and remaining games against tough opponents on the road, the Steelers even face the possibility of their first losing season under Coach Tomlin.

Getting Tougher

Sure it's early still, and there were some good signs in the Warriors last game against OKC but also some very troubling ones, and so in the midst of a six game losing streak, much of it at home, one thing seems obvious: nobody is afraid of the Warriors anymore.  Down by nearly 20 points, the young Thunder team came thundering back.  They weren't intimidated.  The Warriors no longer inspire fear in their opponents.

For as much as the Warriors want to forget last season, the rest of the league hasn't.  They saw that the Warriors were vulnerable, that they didn't routinely get big leads and hold them, or rally late to inevitably win.  And they are seeing this again.  Do they even respect the Warriors anymore?  They respect Steph Curry and what he can do.  But the Warriors as a team?  I wonder.  If the Warriors are still a championship team, they are making it tougher on themselves to prove it.  They're going to have to earn that respect and intimidation factor all over again.  

But there's better news in the Bay: the Niners won convincingly again.  The defense pressured and was opportunistic, and Brock Purdy had a perfect quarterback rating (whatever that means), the first in Niner history.  I guess it means he was pretty good, and there was lots of MVP buzz in the sportshysteria media.

I contrast this with the situation in Pittsburgh, where my other team lives.  They, too, have a young quarterback who showed a lot of promise before being injured late last season.  But the Steelers offense is lifeless (even considering Cleveland's vaunted defense), and Steelers fans are screaming for his head, and particularly for the offensive coordinator, the most hated man in the burgh.  Heavy sigh. 

Update: Matt Canada was fired as the Steelers' offensive coordinator, the first coaching change during a season that the Steelers have made since 1941.  At almost the same time, a poll of NFL players conducted by the NYTimes asked which coach other than their own they would like to play for.  The top choice by far was Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. 

Not So Fast (Updated)

 The Golden State Warriors started fast and then stalled, with a three game losing streak.  After 1l games they are 6-5.  Other teams rated ahead of them preseason had tougher starts, but several of them are coming around.  So it's an important moment.

There are some anomalies: last year's team couldn't win on the road, this year the Warriors can't seem to win at home.  Last year the starting five was the best in the league and reserves blew leads; this year the starters are struggling and the bench is energetic and effective.  

Most analysts point to the obvious fact that Steph Curry is having a tremendous start--his string of games with four or more 3 pointers alone is unprecedented--but he isn't getting enough scoring help.  It keeps being said that Andrew Wiggins is having a slow start, and Klay Thompson and Chris Paul are in shooting slumps.  When they come around, it is said... But what if they don't?  What if they--or any one of them-- can't?  This is always a possibility with veterans especially.  Though Dario Saric is providing more points than expected, nobody is making up for the 20 points a game they lost when Poole was sent to Washington.

Coach Kerr talks as if he sees this as one of the lows in a long season.  It's true that the Dubs caught Cleveland and Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and when you play teams matters almost as much as who you play.  But there's also this: the Warriors did well in their early games by beating teams they are supposed to beat.  But they aren't yet beating teams they need to beat, elite teams.  They especially having trouble with mobile, skilled bigs--at Denver, and against Cleveland and MN.  So far they've got no answer, offensively or defensively. 

The game Tuesday in Minnesota will really affect the narrative going forward, especially because it is an in-season tournament game.  It's hard to see how Steph can step up his game, so it's going to be up to others and the team as a whole to get it going and get it flowing--especially the starters. 

UPDATE: Wow, who could see that coming--the Warriors went into the game with MN on Tuesday knowing that Steph wasn't playing because of a sore knee (not known yet how bad the injury is.)  Then the game started and before a point was scored, there was a melee, a fracas (two words I love to use), that resulted in Klay and Draymond being ejected, unfairly if you ask their coach.  And the Dubs still almost won the game!  So losing four straight is one thing.  But how the Warriors came together in this one may turn out to be more important in the long run.  They're going to be playing with an edge.  Assuming Steph is back, and maybe even if he isn't, I don't envy being a hot OKC coming to the Warriors' house.

They're Back

 Only four games into the new NBA season and it seems the Golden State Warriors are back in the mix, big time.  They lost their home opener to Phoenix, but given their cold shooting as a team, they kept the game close.  They've had three away games so far.  Last year they lost their first eight.  This year they've won all of the first three.

Chris Paul started the first two games, in the absence of the injured Draymond Green.  By the second game at Sacramento he was already adjusted to the Golden State motion offense.  With Draymond back, he came off the bench for the first time in his storied career against Houston, and led the second team to equal or exceed the starters' in all phases. He did it again in New Orleans the very next night.  Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody were impressive, and back to being healthy, Gary Payton II was outstanding.  The rookies have gotten some minutes and showed up big, especially in rebounding.

Meanwhile Steph Curry is playing with joy again, and putting up big numbers.  He exceeded forty points in two of the four games.  In the back-to-back, he scored a total of 66 points in two nights.    

It's a long season, and so much depends on avoiding injuries.  (But even there this year's team is showing improvement: they won without Draymond in Sacramento, and without Klay and JK in New Orleans.)  But so far the Warriors are doing what they need to do to be a championship team: they are winning on the road, and they are beating teams they are supposed to beat.  

Here It Comes

 In just a few days the NBA season begins.  The new look Golden State Warriors will face immediate tests, beginning with the home opener against Phoenix, widely regard as the team most likely to contend with Denver for the Western Division, and the return of Kevin Durant to SF for the first time in a different uniform.  Then 7 of the next 8 games are on the road, where last year's team played so conspicuously poorly.

The preseason games give Warriors fans reasons to be optimistic, as the newer members of the team played with such tenacity in winning games late, which is when last year's subs often failed.  Preseason doesn't indicate much more, but it does suggest that the Warriors could be, at the very least, a lot more fun to watch this year.

The Warriors have undoubtedly improved, but they are hardly the only team to upgrade, at least on paper, this off-season.  In fact this looks like it may be a very, very competitive season, and an exciting one.

Making it especially exciting is the coming of Victor Wembanyama.  In the Spurs pre-season game with the Warriors it was clear that they as well as the entire league are going to have to at least try to adjust to what this extraordinary player can do.  It's also worth noting that he is not the only giant on the Spurs, and the team's height is likely to challenge the Warriors in their games.  For as improved as the Warriors may be, they still are deficient in height.  

The West looks very strong, and with the stunning preseason debut of Wembanyama, it seems likely that San Antonio is suddenly going to be in the mix.  They are going to win some games and may make the playoffs.  The difference right now between the Spurs and other young teams and the current elite is the lesser ability to finish games, but once they get the feel of how to win, every night is going to be hard-fought. 

So let the games begin.  

Bay Area Teams This Week: Quick Takes

 Niners: With wall to wall sports shows and social media, it's not surprising that a lot of tempests seem much bigger than their teapots.  The 49ers leadership got roasted for paying way too much on the failed experiment of Trey Lance, touted as the quarterback of the future.  What seldom gets mentioned in the same breath is how outrageously little they paid for Brock Purdy, the last draft choice, and now seeming to fit the bill as the franchise quarterback.  Average out those two deals and Purdy is still a bargain.  The Niners are looking very good.  (So no surprise the leadership team is staying.)

Giants: The same may not be in the cards for the leadership team of the San Francisco Giants, now officially out of the playoffs again, and what's worse, playing to half empty stands.  Today's Giants may get a feel for what it used to be like if crowds show up for Brandon Crawford on Sunday.  If the Giants don't bring him back I expect he'll retire.  Will his bosses be retired?  Stay tuned.

Warriors:  As Golden State gets ready for training camp, where decisions will be made on the final roster and on the starting lineup, at least at first, Coach Kerr is talking about "connectivity."  Almost everything everyone in Warriors leadership is saying emphasizes teamwork, putting the team first and being on the same page, on the court and about things like playing time.  Kerr is insistent, and he's been talking this way the entire off-season.  Clearly there's a message to players on the roster and those who want to be, that they will be judged by these standards.  That message is obvious, but the emphasis on it suggests to me that things "in the locker room" were way worse than we were led to believe last season.

WNBA:  That the Warriors may be associated with a Bay Area WNBA team in the near future is exciting news.  I enjoy these games, particularly now in the playoffs, though I have to admit that I have trouble keeping the names of the teams and their cities straight.  I would love to have a Bay Area team to root for.  

Early September

 As of this moment, the Golden State Warriors haven't completely filled out its roster, and may feel some pressure to make a meaningful addition.  The Lakers seem they've just done so, and if it works out they may have completed the puzzle and become a contender.  But really nobody knows how new additions are going to work out, and they probably won't really know until well into the season.  That goes for the Warriors big gamble as well, Chris Paul.

But I can't idly wait for basketball season to start, and the baseball teams I have rooting interest in (the Giants and Pirates) are going nowhere, and the world being what it is, I'll have to swallow my misgivings and get back into football again.

It was fun watching the first week edits of college games, when skilled teams ran up the score.  The big story was Colorado over Clemson, and now Deon Sanders' team is getting a lot of hype.  But that game revealed some possibly significant weaknesses, especially on defense: poor run defense and sloppy tackling.  Nebraska (their next opponent) used to be able to run the ball, but their first game wasn't inspiring, so Colorado should win its home opener.  But if they do run up against a team that can run, they could be in trouble.

The NFL season started with an upset, Detroit's one point win over Kansas City, but KC was missing three significant starters, and they gave up one big play.  So it's doubtful this game will mean anything.  I'm rooting for a Niners championship this year, but I wouldn't be brokenhearted if they lost to the Steelers this week.  That might be the best game of the weekend.

The Challenge of the Dubs

 The Golden State Warriors may still have a few moves to make to augment their roster before the 2023-24 season starts.  But unless it includes a high stakes trade that no one expects, these moves are apt to be modest, especially when it comes to how much they can pay players.  Other teams aren't finished making their moves either, with the Damian Lillard trade the most conspicuous of the unresolved.  But it may not be too early to ask: can this be a championship team this season?

Moves made so far have suggested that bringing a selfless attitude crucial to a championship team has been a priority.  But winning usually comes down to four factors: talent, teamwork (or culture), health and luck (everything from the timing of who you play when to which way the ball bounces.)  Luck is mysterious, health can be encouraged but also depends on luck, so there's only so much a team can do about them.  That leaves teamwork, which the Dubs seem to be giving priority, and talent.  Defensive talent seems to have been improved.  Offensive talent is not so clear.

The essential question is: who not named Steph is going to score enough to win games?  Recall that even with all his deficiencies, J. Poole was good for 20 points a game, especially when he started.  And he played in every game.  Where are those points going to come from?

Chris Paul can score, but his role at this point is uncertain or unknown.  He may well play limited minutes.  He can also help others score.  Draymond said that Paul could "unlock" Jonathan Kaminga, but what the Dubs need most is for him to unlock Andrew Wiggins.  Wiggins can score from anywhere, but his short game can help free up Klay Thompson's outside shooting.  The second unit is at this point a mystery to everybody because it's going to be brand new, but scoring there is also necessary.  Recall that even with Poole's points, the Warriors barely scraped into the playoffs.  Winning regular season games is no longer a given, and certainly not an afterthought.

 How much the Dubs have improved their roster is an open question but even if you believe they did improve it, so did (it's very likely) their competitors in the West, and possibly then in the East.  In addition to the champion Nuggets, the Kings, Lakers and Suns all seem to have strengthened already strong teams.  The Clippers and the Mavericks may be better, and even the Spurs could stir. The competition is likely to be stronger.  However this coming year plays out,  it is unlikely to be an easy ride for the Warriors.   

Update 7/8: The signing of free agent Dario Saric is a coup for the Warriors in several ways: he's authentically tall, can shoot and defend, so he could fill the "big man" role the Warriors lacked; he's played with Chris Paul and they worked well together, and finally, he was probably the best available big at the price.  He seems also to be comfortable being a role player who doesn't always start, and is said to have high hoop intelligence.  All of that certainly changes the dynamic and sounds hopeful...Now it seems likely the Warriors will closely watch the younger players in summer league to decide who gets the last roster spot, and who gets the three two-way slots.  

The Changing of the Dubs

 June has a week to go and already the Warrior team doesn't look like the one that just finished their season a few weeks ago, as I suggested they might not awhile back.  Bob Myers left as GM, several interesting new players were drafted, Draymond opted out of his last contract year and is negotiating a longer term deal. And the Dubs traded Jordan Poole for veteran and likely future Hall of Famer Chris Paul. (The Suns traded Paul to the Wizards, who traded him to the Warriors, so Poole goes to Washington.) Free agency is next.

The writing on the wall for at least one young player was there from Coach Kerr's end of season comments summarized in my last post, that the Warriors this year were not a championship team.  He was more specific in what he meant with his comments on how Miami was an Eastern Conference champion because they played together for the team, and didn't complain about their roles or playing time.  Unless you have that kind of team, he said, you don't win championships.  

But publicly Coach Kerr said he liked the roster the way it was, and in his first press conference as GM, Mike Dunleavy Jr. (promoted from within the organization) said the Warriors were keeping Poole for four years and hopefully longer.  A few days later he traded him--not a great look for credibility but supposedly everyone understands.  

Apparently a lot went on in the locker room this season that didn't get reported, for after the trade reporter Tim Kawakaki noted that no one in the organization expressed regrets at losing Poole, once thought of as the future of the franchise.  The bag of promised money the Warriors save plus the tension between Poole and Draymond now eliminated, both suggest Draymond will get his contract.

Coach Kerr responded to the trade in general terms, saying that after all everybody in the organization knew there had to be a "shift."  Besides a shift in players, the addition of Chris Paul could mean a change in how the Warriors play, or at least how they played this past year.  No one really knows if  they brought in Chris Paul to start or to run the second shift, but it was also reported that Kerr felt the Warriors need a traditional point guard.  Another report said that Steph Curry not only approved of the trade (more or less a necessity) but that he wanted Chris Paul on the team.

There was also talk that the Warriors lacked veteran presence in the locker room, though that's a little harder to swallow.  On the floor maybe, when all the starters weren't there.  Chris Paul is not only 38 but has a history of injuries.  So will they try to do with him what they tried (and failed to do) with Iggy this year, and save him for the playoffs?  

The Warriors still face money difficulties, because they can't stop now--Poole played in every game last year, and Chris Paul won't, so they'll need either bigger minutes from within their present roster, or they'll need another player or two.  The trading may not be over.  Poole was known to complain about playing time (and he really was much better starting), but so apparently was Jonathan Kuminga.  Stories say the Warriors aren't shopping him, but they said that about Poole as well.  

  Even if the Warriors did well with this trade and their draft picks, other teams may well have done better.  As for free agency, there may not be much money to spend but at least their roster is roomy enough now--they also said goodbye to Ryan Rollins and Patrick Baldwin, Jr.  Donte DiVinenzo is widely believed to be leaving for more money, although that now may also change. And it's not even July.  Stay tuned.

Post Mortem

 The Golden State Warriors lost the sixth game and the second round series to the Los Angeles Lakers.  Steph Curry couldn't carry them offensively when J. Poole struggled and Klay Thompson wasn't Game Six Klay this time.  Defensively they once again sent the Lakers to the line too often.  They started slow--shots not falling, maybe low energy--as they often did on the road, came back nearly even a few times but in the end were thoroughly trounced.  It was the game for the Lakers' adjustments and they made the right ones.

Since then the picture emerging is contrary to what we were told during the year.  Coach Kerr said the Dubs had maxed out in the second round, and they were not a championship team.  Apparently he'd seen that for some time.  Stories also emerged, one after another, of dissension, dissatisfaction or at least confusion between the younger members of the team and the core.  The team trust, the strength in numbers we were assured was there, apparently wasn't.  Kerr said that rebuilding the trust and the Warrior culture is an essential off-season task. 

Several coaches of playoff teams that exited in the first and second round have already been fired.  Kerr's job doesn't seem to be in question, but a lot is.  Apparently whether Bob Myers returns as GM is up to him--he's been offered several possible contracts.  Kerr says he wants Draymond back, Draymond says he wants to be back, but those decisions--complicated by new rules regarding how much teams can spend--are yet to be made. Klay Thompson will be negotiating a new contract. The key to all of this may be whether Myers returns.  

Although Kerr says he likes the roster as it is, most outside observes are either clamoring for trades or  resigned to them.  Free agency will very likely take some players, and make others available.  Interesting to me is Steph Curry saying that the Dubs didn't have a change-up to throw at the Lakers.  That change-up might have been James Wisesman.  Although many observers point to the players from last year who weren't on the team this year, we also didn't hear about players who were described as game-changers last year, such as Poole, Wiggins and Payton II.  Wiggins seems to have had one excellent game, just before he got hurt.  Klay had one 30 point game.  Draymond had great games and bad games.  The whole team just wasn't as good this year, obviously not in the regular season but also in the playoffs.  Apart from what's being talked about now, it suggests that in many ways--most of them more psychological than physical, but also the physical toll-- it's very hard to repeat as champions.

The NBA would probably love a Lakers-Celtics finals, but the Lakers might not have enough to conquer Denver this year.  The Celtics should handle Miami but they might not.  One bit of good news as I say goodbye to NBA basketball this season: the San Antonio Spurs won the draft lottery, and the right to draft the young French player who is being called a generational talent, Victor Wembanyama.  It's good news for the NBA and for the kid, because the Spurs are a class organization, and Gregg Popovich is as good a coach as Wembanyama could hope for, particularly since he brought alone a previous French star, Tony Parker, and two previous number one picks, David Robinson and Tim Duncan. 

Doing the Math

The major advantage of winning the first game of a series, apart from setting a tone, is that the team that wins it doesn't have to win two games in a row to win the series.  Since the playoffs are characterized by game to game adjustments, this is significant--especially for the Lakers, who tend to be a team that shows up every other game.

If the Warriors had won the third game, that would have negated that advantage.  However the Lakers have now won the first and third games, so they are on track.  The Warriors on the other hand cannot win the series now without winning at least two games in a row.  They won three in a row against the Kings, but this series is a bigger challenge. 

So winning the fourth game is pretty important for the Warriors.  They may have to count on a alternate game letdown from the Lakers, though, because the Lakers won decisively on Saturday by playing their game--getting Anthony Davis inside, rebounding and especially by getting alot of points on foul shots, which had the added advantage of slowing the game to a standstill and preventing the Warriors from setting the pace.  

The foul shot disparity, very much the Lakers game, was accelerated by--according to Coach Kerr--the Warriors losing their poise.  That's discouraging, and not something you'd expect from a team so experienced in playoff basketball.  Steph Curry and the other Warriors had a bad to lukewarm shooting day as well, which may have added to their frustration.  The Lakers even shot a better percentage of threes.

If the Warriors can get a win in the fourth game, they've got the fifth game at home, and so are well-positioned to win a seven game series. Then it would be the Lakers who would have to win two in a row. If the Warriors don't win the fourth, then it's a much steeper climb.  They would have to win both their home games and still win the sixth in Los Angeles.  

None of us out here really know how hard it is to win an NBA playoff game.  Some years the Warriors seemed to fly through the playoffs (as a couple of Lakers teams did in the past), and it was all pretty joyful and fun.  But look around the playoffs and you don't see any teams like that this year.  Every team is struggling at times.  It looks like this year it will be the last team standing.

The Answer

 In the second game of the second round series with the Lakers, the Golden State Warriors had to solve some defensive problems and look for a more potent offensive strategy to shrink the huge gap in foul shots.  They did all of that and more, leading by 30 as the fourth quarter started, ending up with a 120-100 victory at home.

They were helped by the Lakers defensive strategy: stop Steph Curry and dare the others to beat them.  The others beat them, particularly Klay Thompson with eight 3-pointers in the three quarters he played, finishing with 30 points.  In order to keep two agile young players on Curry at all times, the Lakers apparently decided not to guard a few others at all, and so Draymond Green, for one, had clear lanes to the basket.  More points in the paint led to more foul calls, and the disparity indeed shrank.   At the same time, the Warriors again rained down 21 three pointers.

Curry had a judicious 20 points but lots of assists, as he functioned at a point guard.  The offense responded to a necessary lineup change, as Jaymichael Green started for the ailing Kevon Looney (who played well but sparingly.) He made shots, including 3s, that further opened things up.  Spacing the floor and running a crisp, fast offense allowed for a rebound advantage even with Looney on the bench.

Defensively, Draymond was hounding the Lakers' first game star Anthony Davis (known as A.D.) from the tipoff.  That, and Davis' own propensity to have a strong game followed by a weak one (some Lakers fans claim his initials actually stand for Alternate Days) meant he was not much of a factor on either end.

So now the series moves to Los Angeles.  Both teams should be hyped for this game on Saturday--and it wouldn't surprise me if the TV audience broke records for a playoff game, finals included.  This is the marquee game of the year.

The Lakers would be expected to make adjustments to counter the Warriors adjustments--and this game will demonstrate whether they can do so successfully.  Ordinarily the home team wins the third game, but the Warriors may be just as motivated, and they may have found a pace and a plan to keep winning, though not so handily.  They need to get one of these next two.  I don't think they will lose at home again this series. 

It's A Series

 The Warriors lost their first game of the second round to the Lakers at home.  That in itself is hardly fatal. But they had a game plan and successfully enacted it.  They rained down 21 three pointers.  Kevon Looney outdid himself (again) with 23 rebounds.  And they still lost.  Though they were within a missed 3 pointer of tying the game at the end, they had to mount a furious comeback from 10 or 12 points.  None of this is in itself encouraging.

If there was fatigue from the 7th game it showed up in defense.  They could not stop Anthony Davis.  The defensive effort, particularly from Draymond Green who lambasted himself for his game, should be better in the second game.  The game plan will likely change to find ways to get to the basket more.  That and some defensive adjustment must shrink the extreme difference between the vast number of foul shots taken by the Lakers and the few by the Dubs.  They were easily the difference in the score.

Certain Kings players made mild reference to the Warriors' age, which certain Dubs players blew up into an insult.  Led by Le Bron James, the Lakers seem to be trying to kill the Warriors with kindness, to flatter them to death.  Can the Warriors get a rise out of themselves, or will they be lulled by the crafty King James?

The second game is far from the decider, but winning this game at home is about as must-win as you can get before an elimination game.  It would be a pity to lose this series to the Lakers, who probably wouldn't beat Denver or Phoenix, whereas the Warriors could.  The matchup challenges the Warriors face against the Lakers have proven to be real.  They need to solve them right quick.  On the other hand, they were close enough in the first game that they need marginal rather than wholesale advantages.  They aren't going to stop Davis completely, and if they try, there's Le Bron James.  A more balanced scoring attack, slightly better defense, and cutting the foul shot disparity in half, would probably do it.

50 + D= Round 2

 

It was one for the ages--in more ways than one.

Stephan Curry scored fifty points, more than anyone else in NBA history in the 7th game of a playoff series.  That's not "more than anyone 35 or over."  Anyone. (I expect as he scored his last bucket--after he'd dribbled through the entire Kings team--he might have already known the previous record-holder was Kevin Durant with 48.)  He added 8 rebounds and had just one turnover.  It was not just a great individual performance, it was team leadership.  It meant victory and redemption.

Besides Curry's reported pre-game challenge to the Warriors and then his performance, or as part of it, there was strategy. The playoffs are often about making adjustments from game to game. When Mike Brown went small with his Sacramento Kings lineup in the sixth game and it worked, it was likely he would do it again in the seventh game.  So on Saturday Steve Kerr and the Warriors planned how to counter it, and how to run an offense against it.  The Warriors planned possessions and had plays to get points early. Early in the game Steph Curry began to see the lanes open to him due to the Kings lineup and how they were playing. "There's a reason I took 38 shots."   The Dubs took care of the ball, and with Draymond Green back in the starting lineup, they amped up their defense.  Defense leads to offense, and made shots leads to getting set on defense and forcing the Kings into the half court game.  

Then you sprinkle it all with magic dust in the form of Steph Curry and you have a gritty and finally dominant seventh game victory--the worst road team in the regular season to be in the playoffs, winning the first round with their two best games--virtual masterpieces--on the road.

 Another key was rebounding: Kevon Looney had his third game of the series with 20 or more rebounds: 21.  None of the other Warriors shot particularly well, but several of them got key baskets to keep the Kings on their heels.  Klay Thompson, who had several of those key baskets and played tough defense, said after the sixth game that all the Warriors had to do to win the 7th was to do the opposite of what they did in the 6th.  In fact the scores of the two games were almost mirror images, as the Warriors won 120-100.  The Warriors held fast in the first half, started pulling away in a dominant third quarter, and turned the fourth quarter into a rout, much as the Kings had done in game 6. 

With his flips and floaters added to his repertoire, Steph Curry looks like he's installed a magnet in the basket and he's sticking iron filings on the ball as he dribbles.  The basket swallows everything he sends its way.  It's been clear for a few years now that he's added strength to his game--he can muscle opponents out of his way to the basket, as well as making them dizzy with his dribbling and feints.  Recently he's become more consistent, in the 30 to 40 point range every game.  The lows faded along with the highs.  So maybe nobody was contemplating 50 points, but all that scoring and how he scored not only added up, it demoralized the Kings.  

As for the rest of the team, it begins to look more and more like the problems the Warriors have had this season are due to effort and concentration.  They are hard to maintain in an overlong NBA season, especially on the road.  They kept talking about playoff experience and championship DNA, of flipping the switch, but it was starting to sound like wishful thinking.  Now it doesn't.  The sixth game was a worrisome lapse, but they won four of their last five games, two at home and two on the road.  Look out, Lakers.

Despite losing three of their four regular season games against the Lakers, the Warriors have home court in the second round, because the Lakers are a play-in team.  It's a new series with a very different team.  The Lakers are bigger than the Kings, and Anthony Davis is a handful on both ends.  So can LeBron James be, though there are questions about how healthy he actually is.  The Dubs may change their rotations in response, perhaps giving more minutes to Kaminga and Moody.  First game is Tuesday evening at the Chase Center. 

The Deciding Game

 Sixth games are tricky.  One team is trying to end the series by winning it and getting some rest before the next round begins.  The other team is desperate to win it.

The seventh game is not tricky.  Both teams are desperate to win it.

What a difference the Warriors 6th game loss has made.  Media figures were predicting they would win another championship after their fifth game victory.  But the Warriors have been nothing if not inconsistent this year.  And it's not a good look.  Their championship teams won their deciding games.

Klay, J. Poole and Draymond had pretty bad games.  Sacramento coach Mike Brown came up with his own brilliant adjustment, which happened to be the same one that his former boss Golden State coach Kerr came up with in the third game: go small, but make sure your guards crash the boards.  The Warriors had no answers, nor could they match the Kings' energy.

So now the Kings have several advantages in the 7th game: it's a home game for them, and the older Warriors will be on short rest, only a day and a half from the end of the 6th game.  The Kings came up with a lineup strategy on offense that the Warriors couldn't stop.  On defense, they can chase Steph Curry and limit him to 30 points, and dare the others to beat them.  

After the fifth game, one SF Chronicle writer predicted that the remaining three games would all be won by the visiting team.  He's two-thirds right so far.  Another more recently framed the loss as that the Kings running the Warriors off the floor in game 6 (as they did in game 2)  suggesting a changing of the guard: youth over age (that is, mid 20s over mid 30s.)  Others seem to be agreeing today--the Kings are the team of destiny, sweeping away the old Warriors and then the old Lakers.  If the Warriors lose on Sunday, that will likely be the story line.  (Then we'll see if the Warriors' management buys it.)  If the Warriors win, well, forget they said it.  This really is a deciding game, in more ways than one.

Even if they win, the Warriors have proven themselves vulnerable, and the "changed team" is capable of reverting to the team that barely made the playoffs.  Had they won in 6, they would have been favorites against the Lakers (who did win in 6, decisively, against self-destructive Memphis.)  If the Warriors win in 7, probably not.

In any case, the California second round begins Tuesday, with either the Warriors or the Kings playing the Lakers.   

One to Go

 Before the Warriors got on the bus to Sacramento, coach Kerr insisted to media that they were a different team now.  After the fifth game victory in Sacramento, he said that we'd just witnessed the return of the championship Warriors.  

The Warriors experience was one edge over the Kings youthful athleticism.  Along with the tight, precise game they played, the Warriors had an array of heroes.  Steph Curry (31 points) and Klay Thompson (25) scored at key moments.  Draymond Green added his first 20 point game in the playoffs since 2019 to his defense and passing wizardry (again coming off the bench.)  Gary Payton II provided important minutes on both sides of the ball, and once again Andrew Wiggins was a rock, an anchor on both sides as well.  But the key to the game may well have once again been Kevon Looney, with his career high 22 rebounds, the only player but two in history to tool two 20 plus rebound games in the same playoff series.

Now the Warriors, riding high expectations once again, must put this away with a 6th game at home on Friday.  They found the formula. They know what to do now.  Klay Thompson doesn't have to become "6th Game Klay"--those outlandish performances usually came when the Dubs were behind in the series anyway.  Magic Johnson is on the record predicting certain victory.  But it will still take the intensity that won the past three games.

As the Warriors game ends, the Lakers take on Memphis, also leading the series 3-2.  If they both win, their matchup in the second round is set.  Everything is settled in the East now: Miami plays the Knicks, but the winner of the Boston-Philadelphia series will be the likely favorite to win the East.  

The California (and Others) Playoffs Continue

 Will Sacramento's star and best scorer De'Aaron Fox play tonight against Golden State?  On Monday the news was that he'd broken a bone in a finger on his shooting hand and was listed as doubtful.  Fox on the other hand said he was determined to play.  He said it again after practice on Tuesday, having been able to shoot and dribble.

Players however don't decide if they play, and there's been no word I've seen from his coach or the med staff, if they might be worried that re-injuring it could risk more serious damage (doctors that media members have consulted don't seem to think so.)  But while there's always the possibility that the finger swells up overnight, or the remote possibility that this is a mind game being played, I expect he will play.  It's the playoffs.  

How effective Fox can be in this fifth game is an important question. But it's not everything.  There's no reason under any circumstances for the Warriors to get overconfident.  The coaches will have to prepare for the Kings with and without Fox, and the players will have to execute the game plan.  The Dubs will still have an occasion to rise to.

And a lot of people will be watching.  The Warriors-Kings series has become the audience favorite of the first round.  This is the first Western Conference playoffs in which all four California teams were playing.  One of them (the Clippers) lost their series to the Phoenix Suns, and one more (either the Dubs or the Kings) is destined to be gone by the end of the first round.  The Lakers look like they have the number of the chaotic Grizzlies, a team as presently constituted that shouldn't even be allowed in the league, and so the Lakers are likely to win that series with their next game.  Then no matter what happens in San Francisco or Sacramento, there will be another California-on-California team round, as the winner of the Warriors series will almost certainly face the Lakers.

As a result of Tuesday games, Phoenix and Denver, both media favorites to win the West, will face off in the second round.  In the East, it does not look like one of the three strongest teams, the Bucks, are going to make it out of the first round.  That leaves Philadelphia, who swept their first round, and Boston--even though they're just up 3 games to 2 over Atlanta, it's hard to see them not winning the series.  The Knicks and the Heat also look likely to survive the first round.  

It may not count as much of a perspective on the Warriors series, but it is is worth noting that the first round--usually the easiest for the top teams--has only one sweep, and that one in the East.       

That Championship Something

 Is the team healthy?  Check.  Did it have at least some momentum at the end of the regular season? Check.  Does it have playoff pedigree?  Double check.

Now it only takes heroic team play, individual playmaking in the context of the game, energy, focus, endurance, adjustments, strength of will, and luck.  That championship something.

On Sunday the Warriors had it all--well, almost all.  I mentioned earlier that to win this series might take finding an adjustment against this specific team.  In game 3 they found it with the three guard, one big lineup to start. According to coach Kerr, this creates the space they need to move the ball around without risking so many turnovers. In game 4, Draymond volunteered to come off the bench so they could try it again.  He spelled Looney as the big in the first half.

But further adjustments were needed, especially on defense.  Kerr went back to the two-bigs lineup in the second half, and put Draymond on the King's best shooter.  The Warriors got back to team rebounding.  The result was a dominant third quarter.  The Kings came back strong in the fourth but the Warriors held on, surviving turnovers and a time-out error, winning with lockdown defense.  And with luck, as former Warrior Harrison Barnes missed what would have been the winning shot.

You know who was due for a big game--and had one?  Klay Thompson.  But it wasn't one of his double-digit 3s or 40 plus point barrages.  It was the return of Two-Way Klay.  He scored 26 points, with baskets at crucial moments especially late in the game, but his defense was notably stellar.  

The bench did not contribute much and the fourth quarter was ragged, so this was not yet the complete game that the Warriors are capable of.  They'll probably need that in the fifth game, especially now that the Kings are rediscovering their 3 point scoring, and their sharpshooting rookie Murray finally found his shot.  

Now that these teams have taken each other's measure, I expect the rest of the games to be tight, coming down to a few plays at the end. Fifth games are called pivotal for more than the obvious math of them.  Winning the fifth in a tied series is usually a huge advantage.  But with the Warriors still dominant on their home court, they could still win this in seven.  If they steal the fifth game, maybe even in six.    With that championship something, including luck.