Instant Analysis

The Iowa results: Kerry wins, electability a big factor. John Edwards a strong second, his "two Americas" theme resonating, along with positive campaign and attractive personality. Howard Dean a distant third, Dick Gephardt so far out that he is withdrawing from the race.

The spin: the same on every network, the animus against Howard Dean by the media came rushing out. They called him mean and unlikeable, and criticized him for not having his wife and children campaigning. The spite was not even disguised, it was blood in the water time.

The change: New Hampshire now becomes a Kerry (Mass.) v. Dean (Vermont) race. If either of them wins, it keeps them going---for Kerry it becomes confirmation, for Dean a comeback. But if Edwards or Wesley Clark wins, it throws the race into a turmoil because neither is a favorite son of a neighboring state. An Edwards win with South Carolina next would be a huge boost to his campaign, and would probably get him the money to play out the race to the end.

Here's hoping: We're anxious to see Kerry campaigning, for the results indicate he's starting to connect, which he hadn't done before. Whoever goes up against Bush has to be at the top of his game, and so far that's been Dean. But obviously Kerry and Edwards have made great strides in the past week or two.

A Kerry-Edwards ticket could be the strongest the Democrats could hope for.

Judging from an interchange W Clark had on CNN, he's not ready for prime time. Candidates with an edge do seem appealing---that is, ones that might self-destruct but don't. Clark seems like he could self-destruct completely. The one with the least risk of that is Edwards.

Howard Dean defined the race so far, and pushed these candidates to be strong against Bush, and to define a real vision. Even if he doesn't become the candidate, he's done a great service. So has Gephardt, who left his expediency back in Washington and became passionate on the campaign trail. He should still be looked at as a v.p. candidate.

There was some cooperation between the Edwards and Kucenic campaigns in Iowa. Look for Dennis, if he drops out soon, to support Edwards. We doubt Gephardt will endorse anyone when he drops out on 1/20.