From Prez to be to VP?


John Kerry won 9 out of 10 states, most of them by 20 to 40 percentage points over John Edwards. Vermont voted its heart for Howard Dean, but exit polls showed that the Dean voters were perfectly content to vote for Kerry in November.

John Edwards, having won nothing and having lost in 8 of the 9 states by devastating margins, made an eloquent concession speech, and sounded like the vice presidential nominee he probably will not be. But Edwards has raised the bar for the v.p. candidate in terms of energy, youth and eloquence.

Kerry reportedly has not spoken of any possible v.p. choices, even privately, but now that he has the nomination, there will be little more inside stuff to talk about for the coming months. He has made known his basic criteria: the candidate must be qualified to be president, and someone he gets along with well, and someone who believes what he believes, and only then do electoral political considerations come into play. His own victory speech comment, that Edwards will be important to the party in the future, suggests what some have said, that he isn't sure than a one-term senator with only personal injury law as his previous experience is ready to be president.

The pundits also argue about whether Kerry should string this decision out, keep people guessing and hence interested. That could be a dangerous strategy, if support for a Kerry-Edwards ticket, already pretty strong among Democratic primary voters, continues to build. No one knows what's in Kerry's mind on this subject, but if he really doesn't want Edwards to be forced on him, he needs to make his decision before any further Edwards momentum (should there be any) gets out of control.

There are two names often mentioned that seem to pass the experience test, and are connected to a key battleground state: Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, and Senator Bob Graham of Florida.

Bob Graham is not the right choice. Kerry doesn't need help with the gravitas imagery, he needs someone with the energy if not the youth of Edwards. Graham reads as old and slow. It would depend on calculations we can't make that he would deliver Florida, but we are skeptical.

Dick Gephardt is the better choice. He is passionate and energetic. He can be idealistic and an attack dog. He can help win Missouri and he has already helped Kerry win Ohio in the primary---he practically has lived there for the past several weeks. Ohio is a better bet as a key state that went for Bush and has a bunch of electoral votes. We believe Florida may go to Kerry, but it won't be because of the presence of one of its Senators on the ticket. It will go Democratic because Jeb Bush is unsuccessful in repeating his subversion of the voting process, and black voters actually get their votes counted.

Kerry and Gephardt look good together. That's become important to the challenging ticket, just as Clinton and Gore looked good together in 1992 when they took on president Bush I. (Kerry and Edwards also look good together, which is one reason that ticket is so popular among Democrats.)

Somewhere between Graham and Gephardt is Bill Richardson of New Mexico. He has experience governing a state and in Washington and foreign policy. But not a lot. He comes with some Clinton baggage. But he is well connected in the southwest, and could help secure not only New Mexico but Arizona. Plus he is Hispanic, which can help in Florida (where there is an increasing non-Cuban Hispanic population) as well as in the southwest. But again, this may not be a factor, or not so important, and may be counterbalanced by problems with other minority groups. Still, it would open a new front in the coming campaign, perhaps one the Bushies aren't expecting.

Another name mentioned that is probably going to be taken seriously is Wesley Clark, but he's not a reliable candidate, and his off the cuff remarks are apt to spark controversy that detracts from the focus Kerry will want to maintain.

Other names can't be taken seriously, like Hillary or even Bill Clinton. Others will be taken seriously. VP candidates in recent years have been surprises, in that they weren't in the public eye for awhile before being chosen. However, these primaries we believe have changed that. The races got so much positive attention for the Democrats that it's going to be hard to absorb an entirely "new" name into the process. If it is a "new" name, it will have to be someone instantly recognized as right, like Gore for Clinton. They were also pretty similar on the issues, and that's important as well. In short, if Edwards were more experienced, he would seem to be just right. But he isn't, and he didn't win anything, especially in a swing state like Tennessee or Ohio. So unless there is a huge groundswell for him in the coming weeks, the Kerry-Edwards ticket is unlikely. But of course that's not up to us. It's up to Kerry.

Now the drama will be in the first forays of the Bush ads, and whether they define Kerry or Kerry defines himself. Bush has something like $150 million to pollute the airwaves with, and he has to spend it all by August. If he can't get traction with that, it might not even be close in November.