How the Bushies may be influencing the Democratic VP choice


Now that the basic lines of Bushwhack attacks against John Kerry are becoming clearer, they could very well be influencing the selection of the proposed Democratic vice presidential candidate.

Bushies are going after Kerry on foreign policy as weak on defense, and on domestic issues as a tax and spend liberal, and as a flip flopper on both. So now a strong, mature voice on foreign affairs, proven strength on military issues will add to the ticket. Senator Bob Graham of Florida has done well for himself this week with his strong media presence and direct challenges to the Bushies on 9-11, Iraq and defense.

Another interesting development in the past week or so has been the Republican Senators defending Kerry on defense---John McCain and Chuck Nagel, who are both Vietnam war vets. It's not that either is a possible vp choice---it just underlines that Vietnam service transcends party politics, and can be seen to do so by independent voters. Kerry may be inclined to have another Vietnam vet on the ticket with him, not only for political reasons but because they are people he seems most comfortable with. Former Senator Bob Kerrey is raising his TV profile this week as a principal interrogator on the 9-11 commission. He may be increasing his chances to be named v.p., the controversies over his war record notwithstanding.

The logic of having either Graham or Kerrey, or another strong and mature presence on foreign affairs, such as Joseph Biden of Delaware, is to lead the charge on foreign policy while John Kerry concentrates on the Democrat's perceived political strength of domestic issues---jobs, health care, environment---and an all-embracing vision of his presidency. This scenario would trump the telegenic advantages of youthful candidates and those whose strength is domestic issues---in other words, John Edwards, but also less well known "future of the party" figures like Evan Bayh. Plus, Kerry may have more confidence in the readiness of Graham, Kerrey and Biden to take over as President if necessary.

Graham of course comes from Florida, an important swing state, and a real battleground on many levels. Vetting would have to show how vulnerable he might be on flip-flop and free-spending image issues, for he would have to be at least not a liability where he doesn't have perceived strength.

Richard Gephardt remains in the running, as a mature leader whose strength is jobs, and the Midwest battleground. But without doing any tiresome research, our recollection is that he may have some differences with Kerry on foreign policy. And he doesn't solve what may be a perceptible problem, of split focus. If Kerry can concentrate on domestic issues and overall vision, leaving the trench warfare on foreign policy to the v.p. candidate except when or if big issues arise from events, he can refine his message, and keep a strong focus.

Another, different consideration that might be emerging from state by state polls is the need to make significant progress in Pennsylvania, which is polling as even. Without PA, it's hard to see how Kerry wins. We're not sure selecting a relatively novice governor, Ed Rendell, will help win the state. Knowing Pennsylvanians, they may be more upset by losing another governor (they lost the popular Republican Tom Ridge to Homeland Security) than by the honor of having one on the ticket. Teresa Heinz will probably be more important in PA than Rendell would be.

Polls among Democrats still show John Edwards as the prohibitive favorite, but though he's favored by a wide margin over other possible candidates named, he's about equal with no preference. So it looks like as his image fades from the TV screens, he won't necessarily be missed.

The GOPers could switch campaign tactics and attack Kerry as an elitist "not like us" stuffy easterner. But so far they've chosen to attack Kerry as a leader, which eventually should play to Kerry's strength (on a platform with Bush, he will blow him away in stature), but at least until the convention and the debates, the rationale for a young, touchy feely v.p. like Edwards is lessened.

So this week we'd say the favorite is Bob Graham: from the south, from Florida, good credentials, strong on foreign policy. He at least looks healthy these days---that will certainly be a consideration. But a less than perfect ticker didn't stop Cheney so it can't exactly be raised as an issue.