Iraq is a hard place (continued)

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has announced that he must suspend his campaign, now that he has been named as one of the 300 New Englanders and 5,600 American veterans to be sent to Iraq in the ongoing involuntary mobilization.

"It's a management tool," as the Pentagon spokesperson described the practice of hunting down former soldiers with the help of the IRS and forcing them to try to fit into their old uniforms, before being shipped off to Iraq.

Kerry will probably not see combat, as this could prove too embarrassing to the administration. "He'll mostly be unbagging instant potatoes for our Halliburton heroes in the KP," chortled vice-president Dick "Hawk Who Had Other Priorities During Vietnam" Cheney. But of course, all of Iraq is a hard place, the Pentagon pointed out. "Let's see what the 'foreign leaders' over there tell him," chuckled President George "Hawk Who Hid in the National Guard" Bush.

In other news(and we swear this part is true)

the CBS/New York Times poll on whether George Bush is telling the truth about Iraq:
Entire Truth 18%
Hiding Something 59%
Mostly Lying 20%

The numbers are as mind-boggling as the framing of the question.

And for the Nervous about the continuing neck-and-neck race, though this poll showed under 40% trust Kerry to run the country, he scored 20 points higher in the Gallup poll done at about the same time. Still, in this poll, 39% said they still have No Opinion on Kerry yet. In 1992, Bill Clinton got 44% No Opinion.

With such a high number of No Opinion, it stands to reason that many of those who have made up their mind have done so on the basis of Bush negative ads. Kerry has lots of room to go up.

Kerry is in the final weeks of building the substructure of the campaign: raising money (from almost nothing after the primaries, he's now in better financial shape than any challenger in history)and going directly to key constituencies in key states, where his crowds have been very good, and press coverage extensive. Conventional wisdom is that the electorate makes up its mind about the incumbent first, before they move to the challenger after the conventions. The election was Bush's to win in May and June by destroying Kerry's credibility, but he failed to do it. Beginning with July---the announcement of the vice-presidential candidate, then the convention and his acceptance speech--it becomes Kerry's to win. The debates, and events in Iraq and the economy (which we believe will falter again in the coming months)are expected to determine the final outcome---barring wild cards such as a terrorist attack in the U.S, or...Kerry being called up in the involuntary mobilization.