vp

The polls in early June are looking good for John Kerry, as opposed to just bad for GW Bushed. But with the bleeding of bad news at least slowed, and some superficially good news, the next couple of sets of June polls will show how deep dissastifaction is with Bush, because he should get a bump up if it's the normal seesaw for this time of year.

The scandals are hardly over, and in fact the worst may be yet to come, as actual criminal indictments could be forthcoming over the spite outing of the CIA agent wife of a career diplomat who not only told Bush the truth, he told the world---two unpardonable offenses in Bush-Cheneydom. Who knows what Farenheit 911 and the Bill Clinton book will do.

But Kerry's invisibility cloak is beginning to bother even his supporters, so he needs to have a really great July. He needs to set themes, make a terrific impression at the convention, and before that, there's the naming of a VP candidate.

Our guess here is that it will be John Edwards. The Kerry Kamp must by now realize that deserved or not, Kerry is getting the "charisma-challenged" mantle from the media, and it's mirrored in voters. The last thing they need now is to name an unknown like Vlisap of Iowa. Kerry can carry the gravitas, and with Bush falling so far in national security areas, he has less need of someone with those credentials. He needs an energizer. And Edwards can do that, if only to jump-start July. After that the vp is largely irrelevant anyway.

But there is still the tantalizing possibility of John McCain. Although he has categorically ruled it out, we've seen reports that he's increasingly angry with the Bushies. As a former POW he has to be shaken by the still emerging torture policy scandals. If he comes to the conclusion that it is his patriotic duty to help form a unity ticket, he just might do it. He and Kerry are friends, so they could work out a working relationship. He is a good deal more conservative than his image with independents might suggest, but he's good on several key issues, including global heating. And as things are taking shape now, a Kerry-McCain ticket would get so much attention and relief if not utter enthusiasm that it could set the stage for a very different kind of campaign, as well as the bitter defeat of GW.

UPDATE 6-13 Several stories over the weekend said that Kerry had approached McCain again recently, and was rebuffed. What the stories aren't saying is why, and we think it might have more to do with the state of McCain's health than his party loyalty. Meanwhile, a poll on vps has Edwards ahead, but that's mostly name recognition. The same poll shows that Edwards doesn't add much to the ticket in terms of gross votes. So the question remains, does Kerry need help in a particular key state, and can a vp possibility he likes help him? Or does he go for the energizer bunny from North Carolina? Or (some stories suggest) he may try another moderate Republican---a July Surprise.

UPDATE 6/19 Our final word (probably)...There are lots of lists of potential candidates, and the only name that seems to reappear on all of them is Richard Gephardt. Gephardt is supposed to be charisma-free, which is one of those impressions we've had to take on faith because we've always thought the guy is an impressive speaker, with both intellect and emotion. So apart from that judgment, he would seem just about a no-brainer. Kerry needs Ohio and could use Missouri, and Gephardt is popular in both states, as well as other unionized midwestern states. Kerry really likes Gephardt and would have supported him if Iowa had turned out the opposite of how it did. This all points to Gephardt. He's not as well liked as Edwards, but then again, he's not as unknown as Vilsap. Reports keep surfacing that Kerry is very serious about the presidential qualifications of the vice president, and in this violent year, with all the terrorist stuff, that's probably a realistic if sobering insistence.
So that's our prediction now, and unless something real happens to change our minds, it's our final one: Gephardt.