pre-convention chatter

If you missed the Conventional Wisdom Commentators over the weekend---their ranks swelled by the Hey, we're in Boston! format pre-convention babble--here is what each and every one of them said:  Kerry must define himself, connect with viewers so they will feel comfortable inviting him to a barbeque, and must leave the convention with a compelling slogan that even TV news anchors can remember.

You've just saved yourself about 18 hours of viewing and reading time.  Don't mention it---the Dash Brothers are here to serve.

The media has talked itself into a common and absolute judgment that Kerry cannot connect on an emotional level.   This apparently is how he won Senatorial elections, including a very tough one against Bill Weld, and won over Iowans in that primary after trailing badly in the polls there for months: by not connecting?  Here the expectations game the GOPers and media play together just might backfire.  Sure, Kerry's campaign speeches to audiences don't come across as well on TV as Bush's relaxed pablum: short declarative sentence (usually an outrageous assertion), grin and long pause, smirk, short declarative sentence (often repeating key words from the sentence before), etc.  But Kerry is well aware that in his nomination acceptance speech he will be addressing millions watching on TV, not so much the convention.   Against these limited expectations, expect him to do well.
 
As the convention came closer, polls seemed to tighten.  While according to AP estimates and a few other polls, the electoral numbers are still extremely close or favor Bush, there are a few analysts---including at least one Republican---who seem to be assuming that Kerry will win the presidency. 

Republicans are saying that if Kerry doesn't get a 15 point bounce from the convention, it's evidence he failed.  This is the Expectations Game, otherwise known as Spin, otherwise known as Bullshit.  A 15 point rise among an electorate that is  less than 15% undecided is very unlikely. 
 
Watch for what GOPers say and do about the 9-11 Report in the next few days.  If they're smart they'll try to preempt Kerry getting a lot of attention for calling for swift action on the Commission's recommendations by taking the lead themselves.  If they don't, Kerry may make this a major element in his speech Thursday.