The Only Fear

Three of the four most recent polls give Kerry an edge (of 5 pts) and while the fourth is within its margin of error, Kerry is also ahead in it (by 3 pts.) The conventional wisdom is becoming focused on the idea that Bush is on his way to defeat. His negatives continue to be high---notably above 50% in some of the bigger categories. Kerry has kept his lead on handling the economy and other domestic issues (with signs of a weakening economy that apparently flabbergasted Wall Street but which this column predicted six weeks ago), is slightly ahead on handling Iraq, and is gaining on ability to handle terrorists.

Bush on the stump is pretty clearly just trying to hang around until events may save him. And the events he's looking for are no secret. Whether the latest terror threat was manufactured for political gain is beside the point---it doesn't matter how credible it is, the indisputable fact is that it was used for political gain: Tom Ridge came right out and said so at his press conference, when he pointedly praised President Bush's leadership. It was otherwise a completely gratutious if not inappropriate addition to his report.

The Bush strategy is pretty clear and pretty focused. Some editorialists have dealt with it at length, as in this article in the Guardian:

Guardian Unlimited US elections 2004 Why Bush could be a fan of terror

But old curmugeon Jack Germond expressed it more succinctly when he opined that Kerry was winning because "Voters don't want Bush anymore" and the only question is whether "Bush can scare people enough to win."

So Bush is again talking about how America is not safe but he's working on it. The idea is that if people are focused on fear, and the headlines stay focused on terrorism, the voters will rally round the president. Same goes for an actual terrorist attack, or conversely, the capture of bin Laden, which Pakistanis have already long since revealed is the political goal of the White House---to capture or kill him before the election.

This White House is incapable of doing anything without increasingly blatant attempts to turn it to political advantage. It is becoming something of a disadvantage, as people become more aware of it. But never underestimate fear as overwhelming judgment.

Still, it is fairly amazing that in August, the only thing Bush can pin his hopes on is winning with intimidation. Nothing else is working. Meanwhile, Kerry and Edwards are solidifying their hold on their best issues and chipping away at Bush strengths. The Kerry-Edwards campaign is geared towards peaking in the debates and in October. As time goes on, it becomes more and more difficult for Bush. The later it gets, the more people will suspect political motives in terror alerts, etc. Still, there is a school of thought that even though undecideds usually break towards the challenger at the end, this may not be the case in a presidential election when fear is such a factor. And nearly everyone believes that Bush will benefit from an actual terrorist attack in America.

Think of it: a president who by every indication the voters don't believe should be re-elected, but who owes his election to the fact that terrorist succeed in blowing something up in the U.S. , and/ or in killing a large number of voters. It's almost as perverse as getting into office by means of voter fraud perpetrated by your brother, and votes by Supreme Court justices appointed by your father.