campaign roundup and rhythms

John Kerry delivered an address on Iraq. While lacking some of the positives we feel would be useful, it is a searing and specific indictment of the Bush Iraq war. He does again call for "a fresh start" in Iraq. He needs to expand that, and to stress the goals of ending the violence and the bleeding. The speech is here:
John Kerry for President - Speech at New York University

Immediately the rhetoric rachetted up from Bush, who essentially accused Kerry of giving aid and comfort to the enemy by criticizing his war.

How voters will react to the increasingly violence and chaos in Iraq is the key question defining the rest of this campaign. Will they decide it must end, and vote for Kerry? Or will they be frightened into sticking with the guy who reassures them he can keep them in their mutual fantasyland without cost?

Bush got lucky when CBS screwed up on documents it used in reporting his shameless non-service in the National Guard. The furor fed right into the Bush attack machine, and obscured the real story: the documents CBS used may be physically inauthentic, but the facts based on undisputed documents and solid reporting from U.S. News and the Boston Globe are shameful enough for a president who sends young Americans and innocent civilians to their deaths for an abstraction that attracts votes and makes his corporate friends even richer, but is nothing but destructive in the real world.

The media is reporting that agreement is close for 3 debates. This would indicate that the Bushies are quite confident they have the momentum, and that anytime Bush appears on TV, he gains.

The rhythm of the campaign has played out without many surprises so far, although the state polls that show Bush holding onto his lead are troublesome. It raises the stakes even more for the debates, and above all, the first debate. The future of America could be decided on September 30.

How strange is all this, that Bush could be if not ahead then even close? CNN apparently polled other western countries, and in most places it wasn't even close. Bush would lose by anywhere from 20 to 75 percentage points in most of the world. He would lose by something like 70 points in Canada.

The worst news of the weekend was that Ralph Nader successfully got on the ballot in Colorado and Florida. The election could very well come down to Colorado and Florida. On the issues, even on the principles of democracy, Nader is almost always right. But the real world effect could be apocalyptic. And noone can claim innocence--- it’s not as if the catastrophe of 2000 hadn’t happened first. Nader may become the first saint with his own special circle in the depths of hell.

Every election someone suggests that the voters who aren't counted in polls, and who normally don't vote, could determine the outcome. Probably the last time that actually happened nationally was the first time the apocalyptic religious right came out in force. If it happens this time it could be a number of possible groups. Bush's approval numbers are low for an incumbent, and below 50% in most categories of how the country is doing, whether he should be reelected. The poll numbers may favor Bush at the moment. But the uncertainties nearly all favor Kerry.