Rove v Rove

The action was intense inside the Beltway and its media all weekend: columnists and anti-Bush partisans screaming scandal and infamy, pundits and pro-Bushers screaming that the real villain is the supposed victim, the outed CIA agent and her husband.

But all that happened at the White House Monday was Bush making inoperative his previous pledge, or (if you're a Busher) clarifying it, by saying he'd fire anyone who was convicted of criminal leaking of classified information.

Some of those who've been obsessed with nothing else in the political game expressed surprise that Rove still had a job as of Monday. But that quick an exit really shouldn't have been expected.

The Bushers had to make various calculations. How close is the prosecutor and Grand Jury to actually indicting anyone? That's a timeline they have to watch very carefully. Another calculation is: how is this going over with the public? Who is winning the spin wars?

They got some answers to that second question, and from their point of view, it ain't pretty.

The first poll, from ABC News came out. On the question of whether Rove should be fired if he leaked classified information, two-thirds of those surveyed said Yes. That's 83% of the Democrats, 74% of the Independents, and 71% of Republicans.

On the question of whether the Bushers are sincerely cooperating with the investigation, only 47% of Republicans think so. 90% of Democrats and 75% of Independents think they aren't.

So it's now pretty likely that Rove will resign. What we don't know is how they're choosing up sides in the White House. If they're still all on the same page, they'll be working on the timing of Rove's resignation. That will partly depend on what the Grand Jury is doing. But it wouldn't be too surprising if on a late Friday afternoon sometime in the next three weeks, Rove announces that he's leaving to spend more time with his family. Or he might even say it's to take pressure off the Prez and prove his own innocence.

But what if there's civil war going on in there? Cheney people against Bush people, and are there Rove people? One sure sign of serious conflict is if Bush actually fires Rove. That would be like the first shot of a political war, and maybe an insurgency...And if nothing happens, that could also mean pitched battles in the White House.

But as Frank Rich and others said over the weekend, and as you've read here before that, Rove V. Rove is a sideshow. There is much more at stake.

Some of that is signaled by the New Yorker article by Seymour Hersh which says that the Bushers poured money into their favored candidate to fix the Iraq election. The kind of activities alleged---voter intimidation, fraud, etc.---sounds quite familiar. From Ohio in 2004. The hand of Rove is everywhere.