PA in Play?

The surprise endorsement Friday of Barack Obama by Senator Bob Casey, Jr. of PA was the latest and potentially most powerful move that has put PA more in play than perhaps it was last week.

First of all, note the strength of the endorsement. "I believe in this guy like I've never believed in a candidate in my life, except my father." Casey's father, Bob Sr. was the very popular two-terms governor of the Commonwealth in the late 1980s. (Casey's speech is here.)

The politics of this going forward is fascinating. This Bob Casey is also Catholic and a moderate Democrat, conservative on some social issues. He ran for governor in a Dem primary against the current governor, Ed Rendell, and lost, before beating Rick Santorum in 2006 for the U.S. Senate. In Casey's race against Rendell for governor, Rendell won by piling up huge majorities in Philadelphia and surrounding southeastern PA, while Casey beat him everywhere else. For this primary, Rendell is backing the highly favored Hillary--but Obama is strongest in the same Philly area that backed Rendell. So now with Casey campaigning for him, Obama can reach into areas of the commonwealth, and into constituencies, that like Casey but that are Hillary voters---so far.

Obama started his barnstorming bus tour of PA Friday in Pittsburgh, where he appeared with possibly even more important supporters locally: Pittsburgh Steelers icons Franco Harris and Jerome "the Bus" Bettis. They presented him with a replica of the "Terrible Towel," another Steelers icon, but in Obama's campaign colors.

Another sign of PA in play was the Obama campaign assigning the guy who ran their successful Iowa campaign to run their campaign in PA.

Once again Hillary was forced to announce she's still the race after Senator Pat Leahy of Vermont suggested she drop out because she can't win. Howard Dean suggested strongly that the race should be over by no later than early July, and the sooner the better.

Meanwhile, the effort by Clinton big money supporters to essentially blackmail Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi into backing off her support for super delegates endorsing the delegate leader coming out the primaries seems to have backfired. While MoveOn became the first organization to push back with its own financial power, several reporters said that super delegates were offended by the letter, and were less and less inclined to back Clinton. One writer suggests that some are keeping quiet only because they fear political retribution by Clinton and her party supporters. But leaders like Bob Casey, Jr. and Bill Richardson who took those risks to endorse Obama may help them declare.

And all this came at the end of a week in which polls had mostly bad news for Clinton, and the last Gallup poll of the week showed Obama regaining his largest lead of 8 points over Hillary. And the good news is likely to continue Saturday when Texas Democrats in county and state senate district conventions complete the final step in that state's primary/caucus process, and Obama officially wins Texas.

As for PA, Obama is still the underdog, and the goal is to come close and to win delegates. One supporter (not connected with the campaign) suggested to the New York Times that a 5 point loss is a win. Others have said under 10 points. I expect the crowds Obama gets on this bus tour--even though there is only one big rally on the schedule so far, at Penn State on Sunday--will help gauge the potential for Obama.

The PA primary election will be a test of the power and perhaps the depth of committment to Clinton in the PA Dem party machinery, versus the Obama coalition--and who comes out to vote. And it's still more than three weeks away. From the Times story: “This is like a symphony,” said Clifford Levine, a Pittsburgh lawyer, fund-raiser and chairman of Mr. Obama’s western Pennsylvania steering committee. “You don’t start with a crescendo when you have five weeks. You start with a softer sell. We’ll build things up, and once there’s support and people get to know him, you start in with the big crescendo.”