President or Bust

Hillary's campaign has been ending for some time now, but after the apparent resurgence on one particular day in March, there was an opportunity to seize the momentum. If, as it appears, they blew that chance, it is probably because of their one new initiative since Tuesday: several mentions by both halves of Billary to the effect that Obama would make a great v.p. for Hillary.

It was clever, or you could make it case that it was. It might confuse or entice people who like them both, or don't know which one they might like if they paid much attention, which they'd rather not bother to do. And it was yet another way, perhaps more subtle than others, for Billary to belittle and demean Obama, to express their true belief that in every way, he's an upstart, not fit to shine Hillary's halo. And the racial references are inevitable--as every black person in America knows.

But like a lot of what Billary has done this year, it's too clever by half, and it's in the process of backfiring. The doubts and the questions began to creep into the media over the weekend, so they were ready when Obama addressed it on Monday. He separated the three obvious issues, and turned them all into ringing applause lines for his Mississippi campaign audience. (Video is here.)

He pointed out the novelty of the person in second place offering the v.p. to the person in front place in the contest for the Presidential nomination. This allowed him to recite his game stats: first in states won, first in popular vote, first in delegates.

He pointed out the hypocrisy. He quoted Bill Clinton on the qualifications for v.p.--that the person selected must be ready to assume the office, including the role of commander in chief. And yet, Obama says, at the same time as they say they want me for v.p., they're saying I'm not ready to be commander in chief. Which allowed him to talk about why he is ready.

Then he ended the discussion--he's not running for v.p. Which allowed him to reaffirm he is running for President and why. A perfect sequence that gives him the opportunity to forcefully state his message and his rationale, and the reasons to vote for him, in a context that has people paying attention. The evidence of how successful this was for him Monday was simply that on a day in which one of the more shocking stories of the year broke--Governor Spitzer, Mr. Clean, patronizing the kind of prostitution ring he used to bust--Obama's comments in his speech commanded headlines and time on the news shows.

And it looks to be a gift that keeps on giving, because once again, the inherent contradictions in the offer flummoxed Clinton spokesbeast Howard the Wolf--the best answer he could come up with is that it's true Obama isn't qualified now, but he might be by the time the Dem convention is held this summer.

Sometimes I quote opinion pieces because they persuaded me, and sometimes because they confirm an intuition I had separately, but they express it better than I might. It's the latter case for a New York Daily News column by Michael Goodwin. He sets up the basic Clinton gag (a show biz term; Obama uses one with a different origin, the "oakey-doke"):

It's a dream team all right, as in dream on. It's a fantasy because, in the Clintons' pitch, naturally, she is on top of the ticket and Obama is her No. 2. That's rich of her, considering that Obama leads in both the delegate race and the popular vote. Forget those pesky voters - Hillary has declared herself the winner!

Shades of the subprime mortgage mess there. She's like a con artist trying to sell a house she doesn't own. Based on the votes so far, she should have suggested herself as the vice presidential running mate.

Ah, but because these are the Clintons talking, we must parse their words to find out what they're up to. No problem. This scam is fairly clever, but too obvious. The offer of a joint ticket looks like an olive branch, but it's really a knife aimed at cutting Obama down to size. In the words of one Clintonista, "It's a way of belittling him" by suggesting he's not ready to be President and would lose the general election as nominee to John McCain.

It's the same attack she has been using all along, though now it's presented as a compliment. And a generous one, too, because the offer implies she will take him under her wing for eight years. How sweet.

Then comes the part that first occurred to me--as to what this proposal really says about the state of the nomination race:

In truth, it's a sign of her desperation. Hil and Bill suddenly are hot for a joint ticket because they know the cold delegate math. Obama picked up seven delegates to her five by winning the Wyoming caucuses Saturday, and now leads by about 120 total delegates.

Goodwin goes on to state the rationale--that Clinton has to get close enough, one way or another, to convince super-delegates that she's more viable in November, even if he's slightly ahead in earned delegates. That's a conventional argument and probably does reflect the strategy. But the word that rang true to me was "desperation." Clinton knows she cannot win the nomination on her own, nor could she possibly win the general election without Obama's voters. The Clintons are essentially admitting they can't do either without getting--or stealing--Obama's supporters. And they're saying they can't get them without Obama. This offer was a clear sign of desperation.

This does not make the Billary strategy any less disgusting, since it depends on tearing down the likely nominee, which risks handing McCain ready-made weapons, and thereby risking Democratic defeat in an election that should be theirs. But it is an admission that dissing Obama's supporters will certainly mean Democratic defeat in November.

Eventually, super-delegates are going to have to understand that their party will throw away not only this election but any opportunity to become a true majority party, if they lose the millions who have responded deeply to Obama, and just as significantly, to his message and his movement. They want that kind of change, and they want it now. The only sure way to keep Obama's supporters enthusiastically in the Democratic party, is to nominate Obama for President. That's all there is to it.

And as further evidence of his fitness to be commander in chief, Obama (obviously having read my memo from yesterday) brought together some demonstrably experienced foreign policy and military folks who were highly placed in previous administrations, including Bill C's, to confirm that Obama is ready.

When asked if Clinton's v.p. trial balloon was "patronizing," the Sec. of the Army in the Carter administration (who is black) preferred to call it just plain old "surrealistic."

And if the Clintonians are unclear on who is ahead for the presidential nomination, the NBC-compiled numbers as of Monday are: Obama with 1,379 earned delegates to Clinton's 1230. (This is without some Texas caucus delegates, and about 10 others still to be determined. Obama's own count gives him 6 more delegates, and Hillary one more.) Clinton's lead in super-delegates has shrunk to 254 to 216 by NBC's count (these are a little subjective.) It includes a super-d from North Carolina Obama picked up Monday. By NBC's count, he's still ahead by some 111 delegates total.

Update: In the week of the March 4 contests until the Mississippi primary, Obama gained 14 delegates on Clinton. This includes the March 4 results, and Clinton's 3 popular vote victories.