The Day of Decision

Next Tuesday, May 6, may turn out to be the most fateful day so far in this fateful election year. North Carolina and Indiana hold primaries, and among the possibilities for their outcomes are several that could go a long way in determining who the next President will be.

Because Barack Obama lost the Pennsylvania primary, he needs to win a big state to silence doubts about the current state of his candidacy. Hillary Clinton has to win at least one of these two states to stay even marginally credible as a candidate. If Obama wins both, he will clearly be the nominee, and Clinton may well drop out. If Clinton wins both, it will devastate the Obama candidacy, perhaps beyond repair. At the moment, Obama is expected to win North Carolina, and Indiana is about even. Clinton has media momentum and has won more of the "working class white" vote in the past several contests. Obama has his base constitutency, plus some other advantages in each state.

I expect the polls coming out this week to be stronger for Clinton, as a result of the PA vote and the subsequent media coverage. If the polls continue to go that way by next weekend, then Obama is in trouble, but I don't expect that to happen. In any case what happens this week on the ground in both states will prove or disprove whatever the polls show. The situation is further complicated by the fact that both states are in the midst of early voting right now.

These are fateful contests for this election and therefore for the future. They may be fateful in a much smaller sense for me. Because I realized this week, for various reasons but most recently and particularly Hillary's reckless statements about "totally obliterating" Iran, that I can never vote for Hillary Clinton. So if Barack Obama doesn't get the Democratic nomination, I won't be voting in November 2008. (I voted for Obama in the CA primary.) And if I don't, it wouldn't surprise me if I never voted again. Because after 2008 I don't think there will be much point, at least in my lifetime.

Barring one of the candidates dropping out, the decision on the nominee will ultimately, formally belong to the super-delegates. I believe they are waiting for May 6. If Obama wins big in North Carolina and even comes close in Indiana--and a victory there allows Clinton to stay in the race--then more super-delegates will feel comfortable in declaring for Obama. I don't think there are many super-delegates who actually favor Clinton. There are some, perhaps many, who are afraid of her and Bill. And there are others who may be heeding the media CW and worry about Obama as a candidate. But they are all only waiting for Obama to win again. That's my guess.

Right now both these contests are utterly mysterious. Obama looked stronger in PA than a 9 point loss, so his crowds and the polls may not be saying anything dependable. On the other hand, Hillary's campaign may be mostly smoke and mirrors at this point. It's entirely possible that Obama will win both states big. But at the moment it is just barely possible that Hillary will squeak out a victory in North Carolina, and win Indiana by 5 points or so.

It could be that Hillary has all that just folks appeal. Or it could be that without mayors and governors delivering voters for her, she can't compete. At last look, Obama has most of the Democratic officeholders in North Carolina, including mayors. In Indiana he's been endorsed by the mayors of Gary, South Bend, Evansville and Bloomington; Hillary has the mayors of Hammond and Anderson, but she's not going to get Indianapolis, Muncie or Terre Haute because those are all Republicans. Senator Evan Bayh is for Hillary, and his is a respected family in the state. But so was Bob Casey's in PA.

So I'm staying away from tea leaves for these contests. I just hope PA didn't cut into the enthusiasm of Obama's on the ground forces because everything could depend on these two elections in just eight days.

Meanwhile, the super-delegates may want to examine the latest article about how Hillary's disorganized campaign presages her approach to the presidency, and this suggestion that contrary to her campaign theme, "...Hillary Clinton has not, in fact, survived the worst that the Republican attack machine (and its pilotless drones online and on talk radio) can dish out. We will learn what the worst really means if she is nominated."

Among the small but steady stream of super-delegate and other Obama endorsements comes this intriguing one: from the Oregon coalition of Latino leaders. For a partisan overview, there's this diary at Kos, which also has the video of Obama's 3-on-3 basketball game in Indiana--and here's the direct link. He's got game.

Interesting that there are two articles this morning, one in the Washington Post, one in the New York Times, about how Obama is relating his basic argument to economic issues in Indiana.