Heartbreak

The first hour was dour for Hillary, because it was "too close to call." There was talk of Hillary's campaign going broke and being unable to go on. But then, suddenly, it wasn't too close, she was declared the winner, and the next hour was about how Obama couldn't close her out. At about 10 pm eastern she supposedly peaked at 8% ahead. But by 11p she's hovering around a ten point spread.

Now the future of the Democratic Party and perhaps the future itself, may well be decided in Indiana in two more weeks.

Inside the numbers and the final delegate tally is all for later. Right now I remember why I left Pennsylvania, several times. Could it be any clearer, since my own demographic--white older working class outside big cities, and raised Catholic yet--turned away from the future so decisively? There is a core of intolerance that showed itself in so many places in the state. It's more than racism, although there is plenty of that. It's resistance to anything not within the highly conflicted, self-contradictory and self-destructive white working class culture. It's why young people have left PA and are leaving PA still. And most ironically, it's a powerful but unstated reason there aren't better jobs. Innovation and imagination are as unimaginable as a black man running for President.

So the campaign leaves PA behind. If it made any history today, it was to continue the sorry march to self-destruction. Until today, or maybe yesterday, my head told me that Clinton was going to win by 14. Then I started to let myself be persuaded than PA could be better. And as usual, PA broke my heart.

Meanwhile, here's the way less invested folks see it--or spin it...from the Obama campaign:


To: Interested Parties
Fr: The Obama Campaign
Re: A fundamentally unchanged race
Da: 4/22/08
Tonight, Hillary Clinton lost her last, best chance to make significant inroads in the pledged delegate count.

The only surprising result from Pennsylvania is that in a state considered tailor-made for Hillary Clinton that she was expected to win, Barack Obama was able to improve his standing among key voter groups since the Ohio primary. For example, among white voters, Obama narrowed the gap with Clinton by six points. Among voters over 60, he nearly cut the gap in half, from 41 points to 24 points. And Independent voters – the group that will decide the general election and a group Obama is particularly strong with – were not able to vote in Not surprisingly, she led by as much as 25 points in the weeks leading up to the election.

As he has done in every state, Barack Obama campaigned hard to pick up as much support and as many delegates as possible and was able to stave off Clinton from achieving a significant pledged delegate gain from Pennsylvania.
The bottom line is that the Pennsylvania outcome does not change dynamic of this lengthy primary. While there were 158 delegates at stake there, there are fully 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6.

And Andrew Sullivan:

It's worth recalling what this primary came to be about, because of a self-conscious decision by the Clintons to adopt the tactics and politics of the people who persecuted and hounded them in the 1990s. It was indeed in the end about smearing and labeling Obama as a far-left, atheist, elite, pansy Godless snob fraud. That was almost all it came to be about. It was the Clintons' core message and core belief. And if anywhere would have proved its salience, it would surely have been beleaguered and depressed central and western Pennsylvania; and it would surely have worked with white ethnic voters over 50.

It did work, it seems to me. It will work, to some extent. It's valid in the sense that Rove is not stupid. But it works less and less the younger the vote is; and it is obviously losing some of its divisive salience even among the older generation. It is fading as a tool. Used by Democrats, legitimized by Democrats, embraced by Democrats, the Rove-Atwater gambits have been paid the highest compliment by the Clintons these past few weeks. But a single digit win against a young black man in a polarized race suggests that this compliment was past its sell-by date. It was an act of desperation, and one last grab back to the past. It didn't quite do what it was supposed to do. Nearly, but not quite.

The past is receding; but the future has yet to be born. This is hard labor. Necessary labor. But the direction of this country is clear, it seems to me. And heartening.