The Day Before (With Update)

CNN is treating tomorrows Rules Committee meeting like a major event, with live coverage. (So is MSNBC.) With the Clintonistas protesting outside, could be a combination of circus and civics lesson. Maybe that's a good description of our political system.

Anyway, Chuck Todd has a description of the agenda and the formulas being discussed. Apparently the scenario he outlined yesterday he still thinks is the most likely, resulting in Clinton gaining 19 dels in Florida and the pop vote counts; Michigan splits 50-50, after their delegation is reduced by half. Figuring Obama's likely del gains in the upcoming primaries, Todd figures he will be all of 15 delegates short of the new Obamagic number of 2118 after Tuesday. But there are other possibilities that will require more super-d's. What's not going to happen, he says, is the Clintons getting all they want.

After what may turn out to be a fascinating unity event Saturday night in New York, there's the Puerto Rico primary on Sunday, which will be over by 3 pm Eastern. The Clintons are all over the island but this story questions whether a whole lot of people are going to vote. Officials there predict a half million voters, and this story says maybe not that much. Hillary needs a big turnout as well as a big win to continue her already ridiculous claims of a popular vote lead.

Today several outlets are quoting Hillary saying in a Montana press briefing that she expects super-dels to begin declaring right after the last primaries on Tuesday, responding to the Pelosi and Reid exhortations. She said she would support an appeal of the Rules Committee decision tomorrow if Florida and Michigan officially made appeals (which is very unlikely.) She says she hopes the nomination is settled by June 3. So we're getting half-heartedly conciliatory Hillary today.

Conciliation might be in order if she wants to have a political future in New York. After stories last week about the fence-mending she needs to do with New York African Americans, this poll suggests she's losing the support of her own state. Half of Democrats polled want her to drop out of the presidential race, with just 43% supporting her staying in. More New Yorkers believe Obama is the stronger candidate, and his favorables have gone up (to 62%) while hers have gone down.

All of this is happening while on another track entirely the general election campaign is being engaged, with heated exchanges between the Obama and McCain campaigns, and most the news focused on the Scott McClellan book. It's a schizoid moment.

Obama got two super-d's today so far. The current Obamagic Number is 41.

Update: The story is circulating that Obama will declare nomination victory on Tuesday night at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN--the very place where the Republican convention will be held. As those two guys say on the commercials, "Brilliant!"

Donna Brazile has made a fascinating statement on her web site, which I've excerpted at Dreaming Up Daily, under a great photo from Montana today.