A Good Start for Obama

This was a good week for Barack Obama. As the all-but-official nominee, he took hold of the Democratic National Committee--though Howard Dean (a fellow advocate for a 50 state strategy) remains as Chair, Obama brought in people he trusts, and moved parts of the operation to his HQ in Chicago. The first cadres of newly trained Obama volunteers were dispatched, and campaign offices are slated to open in every state, beginning in some major swing states.

The Obama campaign set up an impressive "Fight the Smears" web site to combat false charges. And while the Bushite administration shows little interest in the plight of the Midwest beset by floods and storms, the Obama campaign is organizing volunteers to help.

New polls taken at about the time Hillary conceded show a bump for Obama, which could be even larger in the next round of polls, taken afterwards. For example, Obama beat McCain by six points in the NBC poll, which had never shown Kerry ahead of Bush in 2004 (and Bush never ahead by more than 4 points.) Other match-up polls together with electoral vote forecasts like this one and this one looked even better. Obama also showed strength in individual state polls in Wisconsin and New Jersey. Also state and national studies showing Democrats or the Democratic party surging to the detriment of GOPers.

Plus the internals of these polls showed Obama gaining among groups where he was supposed to be weak, like women voters and older voters. Obama is more trusted on the economy than McCain. Combine that with earlier studies that showed him leading among Latinos and Jewish voters, and making inroads with black conservatives, plus prominent Republicans like Colin Powell and former Bush press sec Scott McClellan saying they are considering voting for Obama.

So what does this mean for the rest of the campaign? McCain has nothing in terms of issues plus he's screwing up and looking bad. Obama is campaigning aggressively and scoring points, and the country is crying out for change. Though McCain is after Hillary voters, many are consolidating for Obama, while even some congressional Republicans are making it known they won't vote for McCain. So as one cable commentator astutely observed, the only course McCain and the GOPers have is to negatively define Obama in a personal way, so voters won't trust him. Then it won't matter that voters are on his side on the issues.

That's why the Obama campaign is gearing up to counter a very negative campaign against them, while putting the candidate out there where people can see and hear him: familiarity breeds comfort, among those who need reassurance. That's why quickly solidifying himself as the party nominee and taking control of the party machinery this week was so important. Dems smell victories at every level, and they're beginning to sense that Obama is going to get them new voters, even in states he might not carry.

Another good sign--the Obama campaign continues to recruit and inspire its young volunteers, and their imagery is going to be there when media is looking for the story of this campaign. Plus their work on the local level: I heard Howard Fineman talking about the elderly ladies on Polish Hill in Pittsburgh who were a bit wary of Obama, but couldn't conceive of voting Republican. I thought immediately of young Obama volunteers offering to take those ladies to the polls, showering them with attention and their energy and committment. I'd say their votes are in the bag.

There are going to be moments of sheer beauty in the coming campaign. But it's also likely to get ugly.