The Trip (with Updates)

The substantive evaluations of Obama's overseas week, such as they are, are starting to come in. Frank Rich writes about "How Obama Became Acting President" in the Sunday NY Times. (I've posted some excerpts at Dreaming Up Daily.) Mark Green writes of the week as 7 Days That Ended A War and a Candidacy, meaning McBush's.

So far the polls show a modest bounce, but since their tracking poll showed more movement for Obama late in the week, Gallup expects more to show up next week. Obama now has a 7 point lead in that poll, matching his largest margin. Update: Later Sunday, Gallup announced Obama's lead was 9 points, his largest. Obama is at 49 (just shy of the magic 50%) with McCain at 40 (also an important number--below 40 is trouble.) A week ago it was 45-42. Which makes the week's bounce from 6 to 9 points in the polls so far. Another new poll puts Obama over 50% (51%) and McCain below 40% (39%.)These polls don't mean a lot separately or for very long, but they're not meaningless either. If a candidate is over 50% and the opponent under 40% for very long, pros consider this a tipping point indicator.

But the evidence in other ways?...Check out this Kos diary in which a young parent observes pre-school kids dramatizing Obama speaking (the photo above.) Jon Stewart showed the American flags waving in Berlin and thought there was a malfunction--they weren't burning. Rich makes the same point: some children have never seen pictures of American flags flying in Europe unless they were burning. Until Obama spoke in Berlin. (Apparently he could have drawn just as big a crowd in Paris and perhaps London as well.)

Speaking of flags, a possible red one for some folks (like me, in fact) was Obama's talk about moving troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. Are we trading one war for another? But in this interview, Obama says that goals in Afghanistan should be modest, and military action must be joined with diplomatic and humanitarian efforts. The entire interview is pretty interesting. Imagine there's a President who is thoughtful and speaks in complete sentences.

Speaking of imagining, one reporter heard a reference in Obama's Berlin speech that I missed (I only caught JFK, Reagan, Lincoln and FDR): John Lennon.

I read one article today about the poor press relations of the Obama campaign. Then there's this piece, that says they became pretty good after the beginning of the trip. I certainly saw the difference between (angry) night and (sunny) day in Andrea Mitchell's demeanor: angry when no reporters were in Iraq, and absolutely bubbling when she reported Obama's remarks to reporters on the plane to Berlin.

The McCain campaign is currently trying (in its usual inept fashion) to demonize Obama for not visiting wounded troops in Germany, which apparently was a problem with the military over campaign staff. The McCains cut a quick commercial on the subject, with Obama shooting that 3-pointer as evidence he was too busy to visit the troops, except of course it's obvious that he is visiting the troops in that very picture. Update: the two Senators who accompanied Obama on the congressional part of the trip to Iraq, Afghanistan etc.,--Democrat Jack Reed and Republican Chuck Hagel-- defended him against this charge and denounced the ad on Face the Nation Sunday, saying also that they all visited wounded troops in the battle zone.

The dirty little secrets the McCainites don't want revealed is that Obama has taken in more donations from servicepeople than McCain has, and in a recent poll taken within the military showed more than 54% favored Obama's Iraq policy, to nearly 39% favoring McCain's.

Most of the dramatics on this trip were visible to the cameras, with at least this exception: the King of Jordan personally driving Obama to the airport, bringing his sporty Mercedes to a screeching halt in front of the waiting Secret Service.

The Frank Rich column lists McCain's gaffes while Obama was away, and some of the visuals: Obama in the helicopter over Iraq with General Petreus; McCain in a golf cart with Pappy Bush. Obama in the Middle East; McCain in the cheese aisle of a supermarket (sharp-eyed Jon Stewart noted the "Dole" packages in the picture), his rambling attempt to redefine the Surge being interupted by the supermarket loudspeaker; Obama speaking at Magic Hour before a quarter of a million people in Berlin; McCain buying cream puffs in a lonely German restaurant, and talking to a fake customer (planted by the local GOPers) while bumping a load of apples onto the floor in yet another supermarket.

McCain announced an event on an offshore oil ring in Louisiana (although as Rich says, everybody with a TV knew that a hurricane was approaching), then quickly cancelled it. Even without the wind, there was the problem of the Mississippi being closed at New Orleans because of an oil spill. (However, polls showing more support for drilling suggest the GOPers will try to ride this issue.)

With good sense, Obama suggests the campaign will remain close because, although people want change, they don't know him that well. But there's also talk that it really isn't close; the hot air networks have to make it sound close, or they'd have nothing to talk about.

The next drama is the VP choice. For McCain, it's still likely to be Romney, with Pawlenty seemingly the only other one in the running. For Obama, much more complicated. Jack Reed took himself out of contention, John Edwards currently has a tabloid problem that probably isn't anything but..., and Hillary honcho Terry McAuliffe (man I thought I'd never have to hear from him again) is promoting Gov. Kaine of Virginia, which may be the kiss of death for that guy. And in the midst of this the name of an obscure Republican cabinet member surfaced. Please don't blow this, Barack! But one thing this overseas trip has probably done is obviate any need for foreign policy backup in a VP. The election is going to be won or lost now on the economy and energy. My instincts say to either go with one of the other presidential candidates (Edwards, Richardson, Dodd) for stature or go for the change poster with Kathleen Sibelius.