Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Wednesday's Polls

are sugar and spice. Obama holds his lead in the daily tracking polls, including that sweet 51-41 Research 2000/Daily Kos number. Time has him up 7 nationally, with 50%. Pew also has Obama up 7.

But it's the battleground state polls that are riveting. CNN's numbers are amazing: Obama 54% to 43% in Minnesota! Obama 53% McCain 44% in VIRGINIA! 51% to 47% in Florida! The same in Nevada!

It's not just the lead, not just the spread, it's being over 50% in all those states, plus at 49% in Missouri (just a 1 pt. lead there.) Anytime a candidate is over 50% this late is very, very good news.

Even better news: this is confirmed by Quinnipiac in their battleground polls released earlier in the day, showing Obama over 50% and up by 8 in Florida and Ohio, and 54% to 39% in PA. These numbers are so big and show such a swing that this poll looked like an outlyer. But CNN essentially confirms them, and now virtually all the new polls show Obama leading in Florida.

It's all good, though TPM quotes a major labor leader saying don't start celebrating yet--his polling shows these gains are still soft. Low info voters are still not sold on the new guy. First Read looks at some polling that shows new voters favor Obama by 2 to 1. The question as always is whether they will vote this time (the category includes lapsed as well as first time eligible voters). Early voting is probably going to help with this group. There are reports of Ohio State students marching to the polls in groups. It's a party!

Yeah, I'm ready to party. Why isn't the election today?

Update: While a TIME blogger warns that "polling five weeks out is never a sure predictor of final results," he also quotes Peter Brown of Quinnipiac: "Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency. There does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century."

And there are two more national polls: AP Obama 48-41, CBS Obama 50-41.

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