Monday, November 03, 2008

One Day to Change: It's Getting Better All the Time

Some of those with a vested interest in the race tightening see the race tightening. But consider this:

Tracking polls Sunday showed Obama's lead growing.

While giving its last tracking poll of the campaign, Gallup said:

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

Gallups final presidential estimate: Obama 55% McCain 44%

The latest Washington Post/ABC poll: Obama 54% McCain 43%

The USA Today/Gallup poll: Obama 53% McCain 42%

CBS poll: Obama 54% McCain 41% (the change from Saturday basically the dwindling number of undecideds)

The final Pew poll predicts on election day: Obama 52% McCain 46%

A late addition, the NBC/WSJ poll Obama 51% McCain 43%, which Nate Silver sez is the freshest of the polls--done Sunday--and which I've noticed is usually the most conservative of the major non-tracking polls.

Please note: Obama has a majority in every one of them. And have you ever seen such numbers as 54%? 55%?

As for those polls showing battleground states tightening, consider the PPP poll of Pennsylvania, which shows Obama's lead "shrinking" to an eight point lead, 53%-45%. Two things: last I took math, 53% is a majority. And the poll notes: "Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided."

So if you're a Democrat you're thinking, what's the catch? What can go wrong? Marc Armbinder provides a handy list of the Known Unknowns that could produce results different from the polls, in addition to the polls just being fucked up. Even Democrats ought to be happy with 18 things to worry about.

Well, not quite 18 since that list also includes a few things GOPers need to worry about. But he's leaves out one: By all accounts, Obama is leading by a mile in early voting, but did most of his voters vote, or are there more to swell the totals on Tuesday?

The anti-Obama ad blitz from the Hate Talk Express now includes national play of Jeremiah Wright, apparently sponsored by a 527. It reportedly started Sunday (including Sunday Night Football) and will continue through Tuesday. Not sure if this is the same one as in PA, tagged with the PA republican party.

GOTV, Go Go Go.

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