Saturday, November 01, 2008

Three Days to Change: We Got the Mo

Much as I foretold you, Obama's got the mo back in the daily trackers, and I expect it to grow. The battleground state polls show maybe one surprise: Obama gaining in Ohio but slipping in Florida. The Obama campaign thought it would be the other way around, which in a way is good news, because they felt the battle in Florida would be the ground game--getting out the vote. And that's going well so far. They thought Ohio would require more persuasion, and they seem to be succeeding at that.

Some polls show a smaller lead in PA but nothing that really threatens an Obama victory there. Nevada looks so good that it's become a lean Obama. States that weren't battleground suddenly are: Georgia, North Dakota and...Arizona.

The increasing and quite possibly (shhh, don't say this out loud) fatal problem for McCain is the extent of the early vote. Obama is running away with it, to the tune of a nearly 60-40 split, according to one poll. North Carolina, where Obama holds a small lead, has banked enough votes to maybe make it a safe one. New Mexico, Nevada, and maybe the one that makes this as close to a lock as is possible before the final day of voting: Colorado. Something like 2/3 of the vote may already be in, and a huge number already counted--some 60% of the 2004 total-- Obama is way ahead.

Obama is close to becoming a consensus candidate. On Friday a former Reagan chief of staff endorsed him (saying that McCain picked Palin with one interview, while it takes three interviews to get a job at McDonalds), as did an actual Reagan: Ronald Reagan, Jr. known as Ron. This means that Obama has been endorsed by the next generations of Reagan, Goldwater and Eisenhower. As well as Kennedy, and the principal Gores and Clintons.

All of which means that Obama may have the kind of support he will need to govern in these dangerous times. (He may not, however, get the filibuster-proof 60 Dems in the Senate, pollsters are saying.) On the other hand, if McCain somehow wins, this country is in deep, deep, deep trouble.

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