The Storm Before the Games

Going into the weekend before the NBA conference finals, a few especially interesting takes among the usual noise.

While the ESPN experts pretty unanimously pick Golden State (and Cleveland), the numbers folks at 538 say that Houston has a 79% chance of going to the Finals.

However, this prediction itself was panned by the big lead.

Sports Illustrated was pretty direct in its predictions:

"As long as everyone is healthy, Golden State really shouldn't be threatened by anyone. I hope I'm wrong about this, and it would be great if we're about to enter two weeks of Warriors–Rockets chaos, but Steph Curry already warned everyone about overthinking it. Nobody can guard Kevin Durant. If he plays his best basketball over the next month, the playoffs are already over."

The rest of SI's analysis is interesting--and well-written.

A lot of the comments in other places as well focus on the difference between playoff basketball and regular season.  The Rockets found themselves in the regular season, but the Warriors know how to perform in the playoffs.  SI emphasized the efficiency of Steph Curry and KD, and the level that Draymond hits (and hit immediately in the first series) in the playoffs.

But 538 does have some good points, especially the potential importance of home court, which belongs to Houston.

As a rule of thumb from just a viewer, the crucial games in a playoff series are 1 and 5 and of course 7.  The ball is literally in the court of the home team in game 1--victory by the visitors (the Dubs, in this case) is very big.  On the other hand, the visitors figure they've done their job if they get one win out of the first two.

In a fairly evenly matched series, the first game is especially crucial, because the other team always adjusts to a defeat.  Perhaps because of these alternating currents, the winner of game 5 almost always wins the series.

 If the Warriors win on Monday, the Rockets are in serious trouble.  But this will still be a series, every game until it's over.

Meanwhile, after their surge, the San Francisco Giants have lost 5 straight, mostly due to pitchers being beaten up and their hitters striking out.  But Andrew McCutchen did get a hero's welcome his first game back in Pittsburgh.  That's great--the city's sports fans weren't always so classy.  There were video tributes and standing ovations--they love the Cutch in Pittsburgh.