Diaspora Cheers

In the first quarter of today's game the Arizona Cardinals punted, and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson caught the ball at the 15 yard line.  As he made his first move and blew by tacklers the crowd started to roar.  Johnson headed down the right sideline with blockers in front, the crowd roaring all the way.  And then he was in the end zone for a touchdown, and the camera panned back to show the fans waving Steelers pennants in what seemed like all the expensive seats close to the field.

So what is so unusual about this?  That this game was not played in Pittsburgh but in Arizona.

This is an extreme example of a phenomenon that for the Steelers is decades old, but it still keeps happening.  There are other teams who have vocal fans in the stands at away games, sometimes outshouting the home team fans.  There were venues where that was true for the Golden State Warriors, for example.  But no team has had more fans in other cities over a longer time than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are popular with football fans for their style of play, and their winning ways since the 1970s.  But there are two more prominent factors in this phenomenon.  First, the lifelong devotion of Pittsburgh sports fans.  Second, the diaspora.

That, too, started in the 1970s and accelerated in the 80s, when the memories of those legendary Steelers teams were fresh.  The steel mills closed, industrial jobs collapsed, people had to move away.  The city of Pittsburgh lost about half of its population.

But wherever they went, Pittsburghers stayed Steelers fans.  And that's continued as those leaving the area are more likely retirees looking for someplace warmer.  They are joined in places like Arizona by remaining Pittsburghers with the income to make a winter trip to a warm place, and catch a Steelers game while they are there.

Some remain Pittsburgh Pirates fans, too.  I saw this myself at a Pirates game in San Francisco a couple of seasons ago, when the Pirates were not so great. Pirates fans showed up in their team gear, sporting jerseys with the names of past Pirates greats, like Stargell and Clemente.

Up here in far northern California, I don't see many Giants or Niners caps or bumper stickers.  We've even got Seahawks fans around.  But my eye is attuned to Steelers and Pirates caps, shirts and bumper stickers.  And I see them here.  If I engage these folks (as I did a few at the Giants game), most of them once lived in the Pittsburgh area.   It has a kind of melancholy beauty, this loyalty far from home.

As for loyalty, I still wear my Golden State Warriors cap.  In the past, when it came to the NBA, I tended to switch loyalties according to how exciting the team was--from Magic's Lakers to Michael's Bulls to Kobe's Lakers.  But not anymore.  From first to last, I'm sticking with the Warriors.  I may not be following their games as closely this year, but I'm not rooting for anyone else.  I'll wait till next year.

Achilles

This year's NBA finals bordered on the mythological.  The series was so "physical" that it was more like war.  And the Golden State Warriors saw two of their heroes go down with grievous wounds.

When Klay Thompson went down in the sixth game, it was the most consequential.  After that, Golden State had almost no chance to prevail.

But it was Kevin Durant whose injury was something out of myth.  All year he resembled no mythological figure more than Achilles, a complex and troubled hero who seemed, like Achilles, to be sulking in his tent, nursing his grievances.  He had been the MVP of the previous two finals, but even that did not make him happy.

But in the playoffs he was superb, unstoppable.  And like Achilles, his vulnerable spot was his lower leg--his calf and then, of all poetic fates, his ankle.  The Greek Achilles' vulnerability in fact gave the name to the muscle that Durant injured, ending his season and next season, threatening his career: the Achilles tendon.

Now Achilles has abandoned the Warriors, and will heal his wounds in somebody else's tent, far away.

Golden State is rebuilding a team, and so far it is a young one.  Already some sports wag predicts the team will miss the playoffs altogether next year.  But in my opinion that could be the best possible fate for the Warriors.

The truth is that the Golden State Warriors of  recent years ended with their four game sweep of Cleveland to win the title last year.  This past season was a long and ugly stretch of misery, for the team and for its fans.  All we heard all year was how hard it was to slog through the season, and only the playoffs mattered.  The suspense of Achilles' decision on whether or not to depart, even though months away, was a contributing factor to this misery, thanks especially to social media and 24/7 sports bloviating.

This team played too much basketball for five years.  It needs an ordinary season to refocus on how it used to play regular season games: with joy.  There was no joy in 2018-19, or very little of it.  The basketball was often sloppy, Draymond Green was overweight, other players (including Steph Curry) seeming off in space somewhere at times. I suspect if Durant had really been undecided, this sloppy exhausted slog played a part in his choosing to leave for the blank slate of Brooklyn.

The ugliness of the season continued in the playoffs, especially when the Warriors could not seem to win at home--an unsettling reversal, so out of character.

Now the Warriors inaugurate a big new arena, and have the opportunity for a fresh start.  Perhaps they can learn to play with joy again, and fans can enjoy the season.

Finalities

It wasn't a devastating loss--it was just devastation.  In game 6, Klay Thompson was hot--he had 30 points by the third quarter--and the Warriors finally had the momentum to take the game and force a seventh.  Then incredibly he went down, with what turned out to be a serious knee injury.

Even then, Steph Curry--now the absolute focus of two and usually three defenders-- could have given Golden State the lead and possibly the win with a three point attempt towards the end of the game.  That he didn't make the shot will provide more ammunition for those commentators who dispute his greatness.  But in the long run it was merciful.  It saved the devastated Warriors from a long and certain defeat in game 7.

It is predicted that Klay Thompson will not play basketball again until early next spring.  The Warriors might have survived as an elite team without KD, because they were an elite team before he came.  But they cannot reach those heights without Klay Thompson.

The Warriors will have an interesting off-season, but their choices are not good.  They may lose KD or Thompson or both to free agency, and start to scramble for players to rebuild a team.  It seems likely however that they will sign Thompson and it seems more likely than it did a month ago that they will sign KD.  In which case they will be tying up a lot of money for two players who will not play for most if not all of next season, limiting their ability to pay for replacements. And this will be their first season in a new, larger arena, in the city of San Francisco.

Steve Kerr jokingly wondered if the Warriors could just take the next season off, but there's some rueful truth there. The Warriors have played more games than any other team over the past five seasons. Someone figured that they played the equivalent of six and a half seasons in those five years.  Analysts will gab all summer about whether the wear and tear of five seasons in a row with long playoff runs contributed to these devastating injuries.  Missing the playoffs next year may be a mercy to the players still standing.

This was to be the season of seasons, with a starting roster of five All-Stars.  Those five didn't play together at all in the Finals, and all five were healthy enough to play together for all of 12 minutes since the first round.  They ended their playoffs with two of the five on the floor--possibly the only two who will be in the starting lineup to begin next season, and that's if the Warriors keep their sanity and resist the media analysts' advice to trade Draymond.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors had the highest shooting percentage in the playoffs, and the highest 3 point shot percentage.  Even after losing two star starters, they came within a missed three-pointer of taking the Finals to the seventh game.  They went down a champion.

Update: The Lakers big trade is only the beginning of teams strengthening themselves.  Right now I feel some relief that I will not be tempted to listen to those basketball commentators, especially the most annoying.  What I mostly feel is that I hope the Warriors don't make the playoffs next year.  This has been an ugly, distracted year that might have been worth it for a championship, but now I'm thinking maybe not.  That's not the most important thing.  So I renew my wish that instead we get a season in which once again the Warriors play with joy.

KD

And then the story changed.  The ultimate outcome of the finals may not, nor the aftermath of the season.  But for now, the 12 minutes that Kevin Durant played in game 5 on Monday have changed everything else--for the Finals, for the Warriors, for the NBA.

It was a game time decision that Durant start the game, and he looked his brilliant self, contributing 11 points.  But then incredibly he sustained another injury, this one even more serious, and potentially one of the most serious injuries a basketball player can suffer.  An MRI will show the extent of his Achilles tendon injury, but a late report says that the Warriors fear it is the worst: a tear.  If that is confirmed, it is unlikely KD will play at all next season.  It is an injury that has ended careers.

When he was hurt and had to go back to the locker room, some in the Toronto crowd cheered.  Steph Curry literally left the game to go back with Durant.

The Warriors were ahead and increased their lead, but the Raptors kept coming, and had a six point lead with 3 minutes to play.  Curry and Klay Thompson hit 3s, and the defense in the last minute denied Toronto from winning the game and the championship at least 3 times.  The Warriors won by 1 point, 106-105.

Update: This is the best account of the game I've seen so far.

Now the Warriors return to Oracle Arena for game 6.  Their place in history is already unassailable, but they'd prefer to not host the Raptors' championship ceremony as the last moment at Oracle. In any case, they will at least get a chance for a properly raucous farewell to Oakland.  As for the game, the math doesn't changed.  Durant's 11 points were crucial, as were Boogie Cousins's resurgent 14.  Those 11 points will have to come from somewhere.

But something beyond the numbers changed.  The Warriors have the inspiration (win it for K) and the anger (that applause in TO.)  The Oracle fans will be mightily aroused, and after years of mixed emotions, KD will be a hero to Warrior fans.  Forever.

Fans along with everyone else know that when it came time to make the decision for game 5, KD could have said no.  He could have played it safe for his own career, and gone into free agency as the player every team wants to have.

But he didn't.  That alone is the kind of inspiration that can change a series.  It will certainly change game 6.  Especially as all of this--including the support of fans, his teammates and the Warriors organization--may mean KD stays a Warrior.

The story has changed, and if the Warriors lose, it will more clearly be because KD is not playing, and the Raptors championship will always have that asterisk.  If the Warriors win game 6, and then game 7, it will be because they are inspired to new heights to win it for KD.

Finality

When injured Klay Thompson was not in the lineup for the third game of the NBA finals, the Warriors needed a career game from Steph Curry and a return to All Star form by Boogie Cousins.  Curry had that career game offensively, scoring 47, but Cousins scored fewer than 10.

To win the fourth game with Thompson back in the lineup, the Warriors needed the Splash Brothers to excel, which they did, with a total of 55 points, but once again they needed a 20 point game from Cousins, which didn't come close to happening.  Nobody else contributed much, except Kevon Looney who was unexpectedly back from his injury.

This is no criticism of Cousins, just back from a long injury, but that's the math.  Those points were needed.  But in the end, those two games were decided by Toronto's superior play both on defense and offense.  On both sides of the ball they found a formula, and they did to Golden State what they did to Milwaukee in the Eastern finals.  Once they find the formula, they are relentless.  In game 4, the Warriors did well for the first half, but were overwhelmed in a disastrous third quarter.

Now they are down 3-1, and only one team has come back from that to win the championship, and no team has won it after losing their first two games at home. I believe the Warriors will play their hearts out in Toronto on Monday, if only to ensure a proper farewell to their Oakland fans in the last game to be played there--win or lose, the 6th game of the Finals.  But being held to 92 points does not bode well for winning game 5, nor did their evident exhaustion.

And that's with or without Kevin Durant.  As of this moment it seems doubtful he will play, as he hasn't had a successful practice.  But even if he does play, a dominant performance or even the 25 points (with the Splash Brothers adding another 50 or so) and a return to defensive form that might make the difference, none of that is likely.  (Although it must be said, that a great player's first game back from an injury is sometimes very good, and it is after that adrenalin is gone that the second game back is lackluster.)

If the Warriors lose on Monday, game four will have been the last game a Warriors team plays at Oracle Arena.  And that's not the only finality.  It is possible that this will end as it seemed it probably would: with a team of 5 All-Stars triumphing to win the championship.  But it is very unlikely.  What is likely is that this is the end of this particular team.  Cousins almost certainly won't be back, and Durant only slightly less certainly will go elsewhere.  Andre may well retire, as well as Shaun Livingston.  It is even possible that Klay Thompson will go elsewhere, though that's unlikely.  But who knows what effect losing (or winning) the championship will have.

All of this demonstrates just how hard it is to repeat as champions.  So much has contributed to the situation the Warriors are now in, including the loss of concentration evident during the season.  Two more victories would have given the Dubs home court, and a first game victory could have changed things.

But to win a championship even once requires the luck to avoid key injuries at key times to your team, while hitting your opponents.  The Warriors have battled through injuries, but they've been lucky with the timing of them--until now.

Teams that repeatedly win championships often come to a surprising end.  I think especially of the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, who after championship seasons thought they were going to be invulnerable by adding two All-Stars to the roster, Karl Malone and Gary Payton.  They blundered through, and might have turned the corner until Malone got hurt in the playoffs, and then it was like a house of cards.

At this point, winning this championship would elevate this Warriors team to all-time heroic status.  But even if they lose, their accomplishments have been historic.  And win or lose, it would be great to see the Golden State Warriors back playing with joy.

Game 2: Playing Like Champions (with Updates for 3)

Steph Curry was visibly ailing.  Andre went down hard.  Klay Thompson has a hamstring issue and leaves the game.  Kevon Looney's shoulder is injured and he goes out.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors played with the heart of a champion, and discovered their game with a 20-0 run in the second and third quarters.  A healthy Toronto Raptors team couldn't keep up.  They came close but the Warriors prevailed to take one of the first two road games, and for the moment take away home court, 109-104.

Before his injury, Klay Thompson was finally having a hot-shooting Klay game.  Curry had some treatment and began to find his game towards the end of the second quarter.  The Dubs started DeMarcus Cousins, and he got better as the game went on.  Draymond was aggressive, Andre was inspired--he took and hit the open 3 that iced the game, after the Dubs went dry for the last 5 minutes of the game. Quinn Cook hit three 3s, and every member of the bench contributed points except the injured Looney, and only two bench players didn't play.

This was not only a gutty win, it was the Warriors discovering how to beat Toronto.  They saw success with Cousins and Andrew Bogut, countering the Raptors' bigs. Cousins' 11 points is apt to grow.  Double and triple teams try to wear Curry down, but he usually wears them down to have big shots and big assists late in the game. The motion offense and transition defense work against Toronto as they did against Houston and Portland.

But a lot will depend on the injury report.  Thompson and Looney will undergo tests on Monday.  If they are ready to play on Wednesday, and Cousins doesn't have a physical setback, then the Warriors are in good shape.  It should soon be known whether KD will play.  At this moment it is possible the dream lineup--the five all-stars-- will be on the court together.  That doesn't guarantee victory, but it comes closer.

On the other hand, it's hard to see how the Warriors survive without Klay or KD or Andre.  But as Steph Curry said at his presser, Strength in Numbers isn't just a slogan--it's a program that begins in training camp.  And the heart of a champion extends to the whole Golden State Warriors roster.  

Update Mon.: Looney is out for the rest of the year with a shoulder fracture.  Klay Thompson is "questionable" for Wednesday, depending on how things go over the next two days.  No word yet on Andre or KD.

Update Tues: KD is out for Wednesday, Klay is still questionable, Andre is ailing but likely to play.  Consensus is building that this game is Toronto's big chance--if the Warriors win, it will be considered amazing.

Finals Game 1: Questions and Answers

Update: The Answers

Rest or rust?  For the Warriors: rust.  Defensive intensity suffered, especially in the first half, plus too many turnovers.  They stayed in the game but ultimately lost the first game of a Finals series for the first time, by nine points to a Toronto team at the top of its game.

How good is Toronto?  At their best, pretty damn good. The Unlikely Hero of this game for Toronto was Pascal Siakam, who picked a good night to have a career game, scoring 32 points on 14 of 17 shooting.  While offensively the Warriors weren't bad--Steph Curry scored 34, the bench added some points--Toronto as a team played better.

Boogie Cousins played six minutes, showed some signs, but didn't score.  KD didn't play, and almost certainly won't play in game 2 on Sunday.  Which, if not a must win for Golden State, is a necessary win to get control of the series.  Andre is playing hurt, and is not contributing much to the offense.  He is however expected to play Sunday.

I'm guessing here, but I expect Shaun Livingston to play more minutes in game 2, if he's able.  The Toronto defense is open to the kind of midrange shots that are his bread and butter.


Questions:

The NBA Finals Hype is on.  Early money on the Warriors has met counter-expertise favoring Toronto.  Someone claims Kevin Durant has played his last game as a Warrior; KD promptly flew to Toronto.  The first game is Thursday, the second is Sunday.

How good is Toronto?  After being manhandled for two and a half games by the Bucks, they found a defense that worked like a charm.  They won four straight.  Was it their team, or a weakness in the Bucks unique to them?

Can Golden State play as well as they did in their last five plus games?  The long, long layoff helps with healing, and with rust.  This is their fifth straight finals, and their first beginning on the road.  (They lost home court by a game.)

Klay Thompson sacrificed offense for defense in the Western Conference finals.  He may have to do it again.  Is Andre healthy enough to play his shutdown defense?  Can Draymond keep up his pace, and his career-best play?

These two teams both play like teams. They both can play great defense.   There may be unlikely heroes in each game.  The possible returns of Boogie Cousins and KD are big unknowns (although neither will in the first game.) If they do they probably won't play big minutes.  But they could be crucial minutes.

But the series likely comes down to Steph Curry.  Can he match and surpass his incredible run in the western conference series?  He's going to attract all the defensive attention from Toronto.  Can they stop him?  Can he stay hot?  And most of all, can he stay healthy?  None of this can be known until the games are played.

If Golden State wins the first game, they are in very good shape.  If they win one of the first two, they are in good shape.  All other things (all other ankles) being equal.

Historic

The Golden State Warriors swept the Portland Trailblazers in the western conference championship round to earn their fifth straight appearance in the NBA Finals, the first time any team has done that since the 1960s, when the Boston Celtics dominated the other dozen or so teams.

To win this game, Steph Curry and Draymond Green became the first teammates to achieve triple doubles in a playoff game.  Curry scored more than 35 points for the fifth game in a row. His average over the four games was the highest of any player ever in a four game sweep.  He had 7 three pointers in the overtime victory.

It was only a two point victory, so any of the bench players could have made the difference as well.  Alfonso McKinnie and Kevon Looney in particular played big in big moments, and kept up the defensive intensity in the fourth and overtime. Three Blazers players scored over 25 points; only Curry did for the Warriors.  It was a dazzling team effort.

Consider this was a Warriors team that started McKinnie and J. Bell on Monday night.  A defensive stand without the injured Andre seemed impossible to some.  But they got it done.  They won both games on the road, and their third in a row comeback from 17 points down in the second half.

This was an historic series for the Warriors, and an exciting one.  Now the Warriors have 9 days before their next game for their ailing players to heal. (Andre seems likely to be ready, Boogie Cousins might be; the big question mark is still KD.)  The Eastern series is 2-1 at the moment, so the winner will have played at least one more game than the Warriors needed to.  Neither Eastern contender has been to the Finals.

WCF Game 3 Questions and Answers

There is no question about KD and Boogie Cousins: they will not be playing in Portland; KD for one isn't making the trip.  So the questions for the third game are: will the Portland back court stars catch fire, as they are more than capable of doing, and will the Warriors shoot well enough to counter?  Or will they continue to be somewhat stifled by the Warrior defense?

The Warriors had a second game letdown for the first half, but came out burning in the third quarter, and won the last 5 minutes of the game.  Portland had a 15 point lead at halftime and an 8 point lead late in the fourth, but the Dubs owned the stretch.  Steph Curry was big for the entire game, and Klay hit the crucial shots in the fourth.  The rest was defense and team playmaking, and it was beautiful to watch.

The Blazers did so much right that Steve Kerr suggested they outplayed the Dubs.  In particular they shot a high percentage of threes--perhaps an unsustainably high percentage.  And they still lost.

The third game is pretty much a must win for Portland.  The likely path is for one of their stars to go wild and score 40 plus points.  If that happens, the return of KD begins to assume some urgency.

The Answers:

In the third game, the Golden State defense once again smothered the Portland back court, and while the rest of the team gave them a first half lead, the Warriors dismantled the Blazers defense in the second half.  Draymond Green, who had a triple double before the fourth quarter began, successfully pushed and ran the offense while Steph Curry attacked from everywhere on the court.  The result was an 11 point victory, and a 3-0 lead in the series.  Curry scored 36, with 6 threes.

Andre Iguodala left the game in the third quarter with a variously described "soreness" and will get an MRI Sunday.  So the question is the extent of his injury, for he is a key element.  The Warriors can't keep losing major players. Some of those looking ahead to the finals presumably against the Bucks believe Kevin Durant's return is necessary to victory.  Losing Andre would be potentially fatal as well.  But that's looking too far ahead now.  There's a game to play Monday.

WCF Game 1: Questions and Answers

Golden State got two pieces of bad news prior to the first game of the Western Conference Finals tonight.  First was their opponent: the Portland Trailblazers, who pose a bigger challenge than the Denver Nuggets.  The second was that Kevin Durant would not play the first game, and probably not the second on Thursday.  Boogie Cousins is also not close to returning, though he is able to run.

So what could have been all but a sure thing for a focused Warriors team now suggests questions.  Will there be a letdown from their 6th game victory against the Rockets?  Will the bench over-perform again, or revert to its season averages?  Can the Dubs match the energy that the Blazers are likely to bring? They are likely to make the defensive adjustments the Rockets failed to make. The first game is huge.

Update: The Answers

One question I forgot to ask: how will Portland's energy level be, after a game 7 in high-altitude Denver on Saturday?  The answer to that seems to have been: not that good.  Nor was the defensive preparation.

On the other hand, Golden State suffered no letdown in front of the home crowd, and their energy level was high.  The bench performed very well, adding to the lead at the start of the fourth quarter especially.  Steph Curry hit 9 three pointers, tying his personal playoff best, Klay played stellar defense and dropped 28 points.  The result: The Warriors win going away, 116-94.

But as Draymond Green said after the game, it only gets harder from here.  Portland gets to adjust its defense and can up its intensity in game 2 on Thursday, which is pretty close to a must-win for them, especially because KD may be back on the floor in Portland.  For Golden State, winning the first game was huge.

One for the Ages

It would be hard to overestimate the dimensions of the Golden State Warriors win over the Houston Rockets in the sixth game, taking the second round series 4-2.  It was a brilliant team effort with brilliant individual performances, including Steph Curry, who was scoreless and had 3 fouls in the first half, and scored 33 points in the second half, including 23 in the fourth quarter--his most points in a fourth quarter in his career--and 16 points in the last 4 minutes without a miss to end the game.  This in a closeout game, on the road, without one of the best players of all time in Kevin Durant.  Not to mention already without Boogie Cousins to force the Rockets into going big.

Instead it was Devon Looney who forced the Rockets into going big, with his rebounds and buckets in the paint, and so opening the floor for a hot Klay and a hot Andre from 3.  Curry battled a swarming defense and finally picked it apart, swooping to the basket or drilling impossible threes.  He did this still not fully healed from his dislocated finger, which he injured again in this game.

All the bullshit about Curry, about Klay and Draymond and the Warriors in general now fades.  Instead of facing a do or die seventh game, the team rests and waits to see who they play in the western conference final.  Steph is likely rooting for Portland and his brother Seth.  But probably every other Warrior is rooting for Denver, a less experienced team that the Dubs have buried in their last two meetings.  It is possible if not likely that Durant will be ready for that series.  And latest word is that Boogie Cousins might be, too.

The Warriors won also because every one of the bench players came through, not just because they collectively doubled their highest point total of the season, but because they played the Warriors game, were tenacious on defense and within the system on offense.  Coach Kerr said after the game that maybe he should have played them more in the series.

Speaking of Kerr and the coaching staff, I erred in saying neither team had a coaching advantage in terms of in-game adjustments.  At halftime, the Dubs made at least two crucial adjustments.  One was either equipment or Curry's own experiments, but somehow Curry found a way to deal with his injured finger.  The other was an offensive adjustment by the coaching staff that confused Rockets defenders, giving Curry shots near the basket and in the paint, in addition to his threes.  The Warriors always had the better offensive system.  But Coach Kerr, his staff and his players made crucial adjustments to win the second half and especially the fourth quarter.

I wrote that the Warriors had their best shot at the Rockets in the sixth game, partly because the Rockets might be assuming this game and anticipating the seventh game.  Now the Warriors must avoid a similar temptation: to look beyond the next series to the championship finals.  They must know now what they risk by extending a series with less than championship play.

After the fifth game, the chatter was mostly about KD going down, overlooking a heroic fourth quarter for Steph Curry and the Warriors team.  After the sixth game, there's little else to talk about (although Houston may face a coaching change.)  In playoff history, this game was indeed one for the ages.

One More for the Ages

The injury of Kevin Durant could hardly have come at a worse time for the Golden State Warriors.  He will not play the remainder of the Rockets series, which resumes in Houston Friday with the Dubs needing one more win to advance to the third round.

Durant has been having record-setting playoff production, and his loss subtracts a minimum of 20 points to as many as 50 points a game from the Warrior attack.  He is indefensible, especially by the Rockets, and his defense is also important.

I doubt there is precedent for an NBA team to lose two starters and still win a championship.  But if any team can do it, it is the Golden State Warriors.  I'll go against conventional wisdom and suggest that their best chance of winning the series is the next game in Houston.  It will be difficult for the Rockets not to be looking beyond that game at a seventh game showdown in Oakland.  It will be an opportunity for the Dubs to show Houston what it is not prepared for.

The Warriors can make NBA history.  Or they can close out their time at Oracle Arena with a bittersweet and season-ending evening.

Two More

4th Game Update: The good news is that Steph Curry had a more effective game, scoring 30, while Kevin Durant continued his torrid pace with 34.  The Warriors were even or ahead in key stats, except 3-pointers (Curry was still way off ), and it was two 3-point misses in the last seconds that sealed the game for Houston.  Which of course is the bad news.

Questions going into the fifth game on Wednesday are Iggie's actual health (he's listed as probable) and what's up with Klay Thompson.  I expect the Warriors will call some plays for him early, and if he starts hitting it may be what the team needs.  

So we're back to the classic pivotal fifth game, as Houston-Golden State start to look like the Lakers-Kings of old. The Warriors can retain home court and take control by winning. Tuesday's fifth games were blowouts.  The Warriors at home are always a possibility.  So at the moment it's still "two more," but now that applies to both teams.


3rd Game Update: It's clear now who had the more significant injury in the second game of this series: in the third game, James Harden had his best performance, while Steph Curry had one of the worst games of his career.  The embarrassing blown point-blank shots in overtime suggest that his left hand is unreliable, and his ankle may also be affecting the timing of his shots, and whether his legs are under him when he shoots. 

Klay Thompson also had a mediocre game, though he made timely shots down the stretch.  Yet the continued superior play of Kevin Durant and Andre Igoudala, and Draymond Green's timely shooting, sent this game into overtime and kept it close until the final moments, and Houston came away with a win at home.

Ordinarily Curry follows a subpar game with a superior one, but when injuries are involved, that possibility remains a question, and will until Monday's fourth game of the series, also in Houston. 


The Golden State Warriors won both games at home to take a 2-0 lead into Houston for the next two games of the second round Western Conference playoffs.  Despite the victory, the first game was (according to observers) almost a parody of an NBA game.  But the second game was one of the best of the year, especially for the Warriors.

They discovered the formula to dominate the Rockets: tenacious defense, the five Death Lineup starters all scored at least 15 points, and the Warriors got 14 more possessions than the Rockets.

The most obvious stand-outs of the first two games were Kevin Durant, who so far is having an historic playoff run, and Draymond Green, who is making a difference on defense and offense.

The second game saw injuries to each team's star player: James Harden suffered injuries to both eyes that affected his vision, and Steph Curry suffered a dislocated finger that affected his shot, especially 3s.  Nevertheless, Harden shot phenomenally well after the injury, and Curry hit a couple of important 3s late in the game.

Both teams have 3 days off before play resumes on Saturday.  Both Harden and Curry likely benefit from the rest.  Both expect to play.  Curry practiced as usual on Thursday.  No one can know, of course, how their play will be affected.

The Warriors have won two games with a balanced attack.  Notably none of their stars has yet gone off for a big scoring game.  It's unlikely that Curry will, with his injury and his continuing foul trouble, but Klay Thompson is due, and he responds especially well to days of rest.

That the Warriors won with a balanced attack causes continuing problems for the Rockets defense.  On offense I expect the Rockets will look to mimic that balanced attack more in game 3, especially with Harden not 100%.  Most experts and the oddsmakers are expecting the Rockets to win this game.  However the Dubs this year have been especially locked in on the road.

 But the effect of a long layoff is a big question.  No doubt the Rockets will be playing with desperation.  The Warriors will have to match that intensity.  This series is not even remotely over, although needing two more wins is better that needing four.

For the Roses

Update 4/27: As noted below, both Curry and Thompson are banged up with ankle injuries, and today Coach Kerr called them questionable for Sunday.  Ankle injuries can linger, especially if players play through them--Curry in particular but also Thompson can be hampered significantly by these minor injuries that affect shots, quickness, etc.  If Golden State loses this series, their failure to come out strong in game 5 of the first round will be the reason.  That meant another game, in which both of these players sustained injuries, plus it meant they lose a day to recover before the series begins.


The conventional wisdom at this point is that this year's NBA championship could very well be decided by the western conference second round match-up of Golden State and Houston.   Most experts still give the Warriors the edge but there are doubts.

That's because the Warriors seem intent on making it harder for themselves.  They blew a 31 point lead in the second game with the Clippers, while Houston won the first three against Utah, making it likely that they would get a few days extra rest.  But this past Wednesday, opportunity knocked on the Golden State door when Utah suppressed Houston long enough to win game 4 (and promptly lost game 5.)  So all the Warriors had to do was win game 5 at home, and the Houston advantage in rest would be wiped out.

So like true champions did they take advantage of every little advantage?  Not exactly.  They lost to the Clippers again at home.  Just like that, Houston regained its extra rest, even though the Warriors bested the Clips by 19 points in game 6 in LA to take the series. KD scored 50 and Draymond Green excelled on both sides. Once again Steph came out flat, ending up with 24 points.

Now the Warriors start the second round on short rest and with both Steph Curry and Thompson looking banged-up after the game--the real risk run when a team fails to close out a series.  No word immediately on whether they'll be able to start on Sunday.  The only good news for the team's health is that Draymond Green's wounded hand didn't hamper his shot tonight.

Granted that the Clippers exceeded everybody's expectations, marking them as a young team with a future.  If they get a star in the off-season they will be truly formidable.  But the Warriors showed vulnerabilities that could hurt them against Houston--lack of defense, lack of clutch scoring, and above all, lack of urgency.  It became a question of how much they want the championship, for it is clear that Houston is hungry.

This is a series than could easily go the full seven.  Some experts see Houston as weaker than last year, but then, without Cousins, so are the Dubs.  A lot could depend on how each team's bench plays.  Coaching is probably a wash, as neither side is all that good at adjusting during the game.  (The Clippers had the edge in coaching in round one.)  Momentum favors Houston, and if you count Cousins, so does health.

Did the Dubs learn enough in round one?  That KD can score 45 and Steph 25, but if they don't defend they can still lose?  They have to hope that two of their big scorers (KD, Curry, Thompson) have big nights each game, and either Draymond or Iguadala, and one or another of the bench players come through on offense, and everybody plays tenacious defense. The Dubs missed Cousin's potential scoring firepower against the Clippers, and they might miss it a lot this round.

The Warriors can defend, but Houston's defense has improved down the stretch.  On any given night Houston can score a ton of points.  It's not going to be easy for the Dubs to win this series, and if they aren't serious from the opening tip-off to the end, they could actually find themselves with a short one that has a bad outcome.

Golden State's habit of losing at home makes the old "win the first and second, win the fifth" formula obsolete, and even a 3-1 lead is no longer even a leading indicator for either team.  This is likely to be a series in which the outcome is never predictable until there is nothing left to predict, because one of the teams has won four games.

Playoffs Become Real

On the first day of the 2019 NBA playoffs, only the Golden State Warriors escaped "Upset Saturday."  Their margin of victory was larger than their game warranted however.  In their second game against the LA Clippers, they managed to lose a 31 point lead in the third quarter, and lose the game in the biggest comeback in playoff history.

That was not the full extent of their misery.  They also lost Boogie Cousins to a season ending injury.  Their second half showcased serious flaws--undisciplined players, turnovers, and worst of all, panic.  All the most frustrating aspects of this year's Warriors were on view: their postgame analyses are always accurate, they spot the flaws in their game, and then fail to correct them.  Kevin Durant sounds like he has his head in the game, yet he followed a two technical and ejection night with fouling out early enough in the fourth quarter not to be on the court when the game suddenly got serious.  That doesn't sound like an elite player with his head in the game.  Both Splash Brothers had shots that might have won the game that didn't fall in the last seconds.

All that said, I recall that the championship Bull and Lakers had inexplicable playoff failures like this in their multi-ring runs.  And when play resumes in LA, the Clippers have about zero chance of winning game three.  (Of course, at the start of the third quarter of the second game, the Dubs chances to win were posted at 99.9.)

But the biggest test of the playoffs for the Warriors will come soon after.  They are very likely to meet the Rockets in the second round.  If Houston continues to dominate Utah, they will be the more rested team, and nobody wants to face a rested James Harden.  The Rockets have been playing at a higher level, and right now they are the healthier team.  Whether the Warriors are an actual team anymore, rather than a collection of high performance players, is a question opened to doubt by the first two playoff games.  And this most recent game suggests that home court advantage ain't what it used to be for the Warriors.

So suddenly the playoffs are real.  The Warriors are not confidently coasting to a championship.  However, if this was going to happen, it was going to happen in the playoff's second game, and it's best that it did.  The playoffs in general are about health and momentum.  Houston has both of those now, the Warriors don't.  Playoff games are about establishing a rhythm early and maintaining it for the entire game.  The Warriors used to know how to do that.  They'll need to relearn it and enact it for every game of the playoffs.

 

Champs, Part One

Steph Curry for the Warriors' last regular season game at Oracle;
the team wore throwback uniforms from the "We Believe" era.

On Sunday in the last regular season game ever in Oracle Arena, the Golden State Warriors beat the LA Clippers to clinch the Western Conference championship, and home court advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

The Dubs led at the half but put the game away with an astounding 42-18 third quarter, leading to the 131-104 victory.  Steph Curry followed his 40 point game with 27.

But with only three days left in the regular season, only two things are certain for the Warriors: they will have home court advantage throughout the western conference playoffs, but not the finals, if Milwaukee is their opponent.  Otherwise, almost everything is still to be determined.

The western conference teams are set, but there are battles for seeding, principally at the top and at the bottom. At the bottom, the Spurs and Clips have identical records, with OKC having the same number of wins but down one in the loss column.  At the top, the Nuggets and Rockets have both won 53 games, with the Nuggets up one in the losses.  But Portland is close enough to move up.  In fact, the whole seeding after Golden State could change by the end of the season this week.

Things are a little more stable in the East, though the eighth position is still up for grabs. Detroit, Charlotte and Miami all have a mathematical chance.  Brooklyn and Orlando are in, but have identical records, so the seeding at the bottom is still open.

Coach Kerr will rest his top 8 players in the two remaining games (four each game), both on the road.  The only drawback to losing these games is losing the possibility of home court over Toronto, if that's the finals match-up.

There isn't much doubt that the greatest challenge to the Dubs in the West is once again the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets are peaking at just the right time, as are the Warriors.  Both teams are healthy going into the playoffs.  I haven't followed the Rockets to know if any other western team poses a significant challenge to them, but the Warriors know how to beat their other possible conference opponents.

Even though the absence of Lebron seems to make the finals easier, the eastern field is actually stronger this year.  Any of the top four teams is capable of winning games against the Warriors, and since they don't play each other much, there is an element of unpredictability.  Generally the West is still stronger, but it's not the clear western dominance this year as it has been in recent years.  

Stretch Run

The Golden State Warriors have an even dozen games left to play in the regular season: seven at home, five away.  Though many of their opponents aren't playoff bound, the Dubs have been prone to relax too much with less capable teams, and there are a few opponents that have given them legitimate trouble.  But winning out is not at all impossible.

At the moment they are holding on to the top position in the West, but Denver is right with them.  However, the Nuggets have 13 games left, 8 of them on the road--and they are not a good road team.  The Dubs host them on April 2.

Coach Kerr is signaling that the Warriors are out to win these games, even though resting players for the playoffs could be a reasonable strategy.  And avoiding injury is crucial.

Have the Warriors found a way to integrate Cousins in the offense, by slowing down a bit while still emphasizing ball movement in half court sets?  Now the return of Bogut adds another dimension at the center position.  Cousins is out at the moment with an ankle injury; in case of injury, foul trouble or when more defense is needed, Bogut is another veteran option.

 It is unlikely but not inconceivable that the Warriors will end up with a better won-lost than Milwaukee in the East.  But home court in the West is the first task.  It certainly is an advantage over Denver (though the Dubs have handled them on both courts), and a needed one against the one team that has given them the most trouble this year: Houston.  Nobody knows what their regular season games mean, however, since a key player on one of the teams was out for all of their matchups--and the team that lacked a key member won the game 3 out of 4.

Warriors May Be Losing Durant With Sloppy Play and No-Change Giants Reach for Redemption

After weeks of winning, the Golden State Warriors have stumbled badly after the All-Star Break.  Each loss was more embarrassing than the last, culminating so far in losing to the lowly Suns.

They sort of did this last year, but this year I detect a difference: it's making Kevin Durant unhappy.  Some of his comments to reporters are downright cynical.  It's likely the Dubs had a good chance of retaining Durant, but unless things change for the rest of the season, they're apt to lose him this summer, simply because playing for the Warriors may not be fun anymore.  The joy isn't there.  He may look for it elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants are playing pre-season baseball, having made no big trades or acquisitions in the off-season.  Mainly they have a team of players who had bad years last year and are aching for redemption.  Maybe that will turn out to be a good thing, in Bruce Bochy's last season.

They lost out to the Phillies on obtaining Bryce Harper, but that may not turn out to be much of a loss.  Harper is volatile, a me first player who seems like he might turn out to be a bad teammate, and could very well crash and burn long before his ridiculously long contract is up.  That he made his decision to not play in San Francisco partly because of California taxes tells me that baseball and community are not competitive values in his world.  He's not Giants material.

Road Warriors--and Giannis' Crazy Picks

The Golden State Warriors were already on a tear when Boogie Cousins joined the starting five.  They've since been winning by big margins, tight games and coming from behind.  They've won 16 of their last 18 games, including an 11 game winning streak.  They've eclipsed 145 points twice.  At the moment they lead the West by 2.5 games.

Especially intriguing is their road record.  The Road Warriors have won 11 in a row, a streak that's still alive.  The Warriors used to be unbeatable at home, but perhaps distractions or just regular life have fooled with their focus, but they have been sloppier at home than on the road recently.  On the road, with nothing but basketball, they seem more locked in.  Of course, the home fires will be burning more fiercely as the playoffs come closer.

The All-Star break is coming soon, emphasis on break.  The festivities highlight is likely to be the 3 point shooting match between the Curry brothers.  Thanks to the crazy picks by Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James got the better team, by a lot. That he's also getting to audition possible Lakers teammates is at least a bonus for him.  But Team LeBron is so much better that spectators are going to have to count on a certain playfulness and low-key spirit to avoid an embarrassing blowout.

The Superless Bowl (Updated)

Update: ESPN tries to sell it as an epic defensive battle, but this Super Bowl is generally being panned as the worst ever--the Boring Bowl.  It was a game between a team everybody outside MA hates and a team without fans.  Not surprisingly, it got the worst TV ratings in SB history.


Superficially, NFL conference championship Sunday was a success: two seesaw games, settled in overtime, with the underdog winning both on the road.  But really it was a travesty, with one game won on a questionable call and the other on a blown no-call.  In the latter part of both games, it was already clear that the defenses couldn't stop anybody, and the team with the ball last would win.

Plus it was all predictable--all you had to do was read the experts, parading their stats to show that the Rams didn't have a chance and the Patriots not much better off.  When the experts gang up like 5 year olds in a soccer scrum, you know to bet the other way.  Just as I knew that when the experts went on a feeding frenzy declaring Tom Brady finished and the Patriots has-beens when they lost to the Steelers, that in a couple of months the Pats would be back in the Bowl.

Problem now is, it's a Superbowl that nobody outside SoCal and New England will care about.  The matchup everyone wanted was Kansas City and New Orleans--the upstart KC with their freshman phenom quarterback against an old favorite with an aging veteran quarterback still playing at a high level.

Is anybody interested in seeing Brady win another one?  Is there anything interesting about the Rams, besides the money they spent getting here?

Of course, if the experts agree that this could be the lowest rated Superbowl ever, I might have to change my mind.

Steelers' 2018 Year of Travesty

Before the season began, the Pittsburgh Steelers were touted as a Super Bowl contender.  A slimmed down Big Ben was throwing bullets at training camp.  Antonio Brown was back, one of the best receivers in the game, if not the very best.  And despite his evident dissatisfaction with the Steelers' management, Le'Veon Bell, one of the best if not the very best running back in the game, would still be a Steeler for at least this season.

In an unprecedented situation, Bell did not come back for training camp, then for much of the season.  Nevertheless, after a shaky start, the Steelers compensated and started winning.  They found another stellar running back in James Connor, and another wide receiver threat in JuJu-Smith Schuster.  Their suspect defense jelled.   The Steelers ripped off six straight victories and at 7-2-1 they seemed poised to win their division.  With Bell widely believed to be rejoining the team, they could challenge anyone in the playoffs.

Then it all started to fall apart.  Steelers management again would not meet Bell's demands, and he did not rejoin the team.  Then the Steelers lost consecutive games to the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders.  They rallied for a rare win against the Patriots before losing a must-win to the New Orleans Saints.  Not only did they lose the division to a resurgent Baltimore, they didn't even make the playoffs. The season ended on the football field with a whimper, when Smith Schuster fumbled before the tying field goal could be attempted.  An earlier game slipped away when a field goal attempt ended with the kicker falling down.  An anemic victory over the Bengals came too late.

Some of it seemed like the law of averages catching up--they'd won a few games with last minute scores, then they lost a few when they didn't score at the end of the game.  But there was trouble behind the scenes, and once the season was over, the whimper became a bang.

The explosions are still going on.  Antonio Brown seems about to be in open warfare against his coach and Steelers management.  Other players are at each other's throats in social media.  This team is blowing itself up, and nobody knows who is going to be left standing.

The factors involved seem to range from Steelers' management's fatal errors in dealing with Bell to the multiplier effect of social media in creating drama.  This is not the cohesive,  disciplined Steelers team of historical lore.  It's a mind-boggling sight for Steelers fans, and it's far from over.